Good post, but don’t entirely agree . You need 2 conditions for “old crypto” to return: - New products that are credibly innovative. Once, many ADA buyers believed it may be innovative tech. Today, nobody does. - Easy money, so moving out on the risk curve is appealing.
Had this in my drafts and forgot about it... The old crypto is dead. It has taken a long time to finally arrive at a place where almost everyone who has spent some time in crypto is unwilling to hold tokens with no underlying fundamentals/credible growth story. Maybe this seems obvious, but for most of crypto's history we operated with massive speculative premiums. We had people that believed tokens with egregiously inflated valuations would/might justify their market caps one day with adoption. Each "meta" has produced smaller and smaller combined market caps since 2021, because more and more participants are aware that printing tokens out of thin air with nothing of substance behind them will end in the token going to zero. You can't reprogram the world to believe in worthless tokens. You can't go back in time and erase the memories of everyone that has seen every vaporous alt coin go to zero. We now know what has PMF, and which categories are adding value to the world, alongside a heap of ideas that essentially went nowhere (it turns out you can't just disrupt web2 by handing out worthless tokens). We have cycled through every experiment to cement the use cases of value. From here on out you get the post 2001 Amazon type winners. You may even see speculative discounts on good projects with actual fundamentals right now/in the near future. This isn't a bad thing for the industry, I think it is especially good for investors that will find it easier to allocate to clear long term winners... and I believe we will have some giant winners. This is a bad thing for those who haven't made it/arrived late under the premise that they will be handed easy quick 100x opportunities, and "keep clicking". It will be very difficult for terminally online crypto bros who have become addicted to fast money games. I think this cohort are going to get rinsed, and slowly lose their minds and all of their money (if they haven't already). There are a ton of sophisticated/skilled market participants that solely exist now in crypto to extract from the online crypto bros who are unemployable and can't do anything else. The odd win here and there will keep people playing a game that they will never escape. The speed with which participants are trying to offload worthless tokens onto someone else, who is also aiming to offload worthless tokens onto someone else, will continue to accelerate. Treating crypto as a get rich slow scheme is in fact the right move going forward. It's the end, but it's also the beginning.
This isn’t strictly inconsistent with what OP wrote. I just think it is still hype, ie the potential of the product, that drives speculation. Not necessarily “good fundamentals”. The old hyped products are no longer credible because we watched them go to 0. There can be new ones.
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