I don’t care if something flips BTC. But there’s a lot wrong here:
1. What’s the TAM for global non-sovereign SoV (unproductive assets)?
2. What’s the market cap of the top 10 global companies? Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Saudi Aramco, Berkshire, Broadcom, Tesla. Hint: still less than gold (an almost inert element. That matters.)
3. All tech, no matter how advanced, gets replaced. Cars, planes, phones, comms, biotechnology, space tech, robotics, etc. - none are the same as 100 years ago. Ledger tech went electronic only ~60 years ago. But SoV assets last millennia. Why? Precisely because they don’t innovate. They resist disruption.
4 No one can predict L1 supply 10 years out with confidence. That matters.
5. “Maximalists say there will be only one credibly neutral, internet native store of value. They are dead wrong.” Ok, but what are you trying to prove? That Doge exists? Or that this isn’t a winner-takes-most game? Gold is $22T. Silver? $2T.
6. And even today, there are many ledgers competing, whether you and I like it or not, with each other. Victory is not achieved yet for any smart contract platform, forget about even qualifying to be called digital store of value.
7. Don’t even get me started on PoW vs PoS.
Bottom line:
There’s money crypto and tech crypto. You’re blending them.
Tech is utilitarian. Tech gets faster and cheaper. Always gets replaced.
Money converges to a Keynesian beauty contest. It is a social construct. Nothing about it is utilitarian in a technological sense. An emergent phenomenon. Resists technological disruption.
Two different games.
For ETH to actually compete, it would be 100x time better to look forward and compete with Solana and other fast L1s rather than waste energy on irrelevant vanity metrics.
The case for ETH flipping BTC
BTC was the first cryptocurrency for the people by the people. A grassroots ethos and belief from the bottom up took it from nothing to $2T+. Store of value based on trust in math rather than trust in people is world changing, but BTC is now the institutional asset of choice for large companies and governments. One entity owns over 2.5% of it. There’s no useful apps built on BItcoin to onboard new people. Beyond store of value, where are the use cases that will bring crypto to billions of people?
ETH is credibly neutral, internet native store of value underlying the developer platform that is home to stablecoins, decentralized finance, NFTs, prediction markets, decentralized social, decentralized identity, and more. All of the new use cases that have pushed the space forward the past decade have been on Ethereum and they’re all growing. These use cases will bring crypto to billions, distribute ETH as a store of value and make ETH more scarce.
Maximalists say there will be only one credibly neutral, internet native store of value. They are dead wrong.
There will be many but there are only 2 viable options today: BTC and ETH
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