Today, I upgraded the historical liquidation map for BTC. The yellow areas are unliquidated zones, while the green and red areas represent historical zones that have been liquidated. It intuitively shows the liquidation records of the futures market over the past two months. An interesting point is that during the tariff war downturn, the market indeed bottomed out only after the long liquidity was completely cleared... This is not to say that the market makers did it intentionally, but rather that liquidity itself acts as a price magnet. From this perspective, the price does not intentionally aim to liquidate a position's price, but when a position has a large amount of futures liquidity, it will spontaneously attract the price. Imagine you opened a position in the wrong direction at a certain location, and as the price moves in the opposite direction, if others who made the same mistake as you get liquidated in a specific range, then as the price approaches that liquidation position, someone will inevitably close their position early... The act of closing positions gives the price more momentum to move forward, triggering more people to close positions and stop losses, forming a cycle until the price enters the forced liquidation zone, where all positions that made the same mistake as you are closed or liquidated... Thus, the price loses its previous momentum and naturally bottoms or tops out... So, it's not that the price is seeking liquidation zones to liquidate, but rather the liquidation zones themselves are attracting the price! In this process, the buying and selling behavior in the spot market is the fuse, while the behavior in the futures market is a passive chain reaction. Can we then conclude that in a market like BTC, most of the time, the participants in the game are futures, accumulating liquidity in the price oscillation range, preparing for the next trend market? But during this process, the price will not show a clear direction until the spot market finally shows strong supply or demand, forcibly changing the balance of the futures market, triggering a chain reaction, and the price starts to break out, initiating a trend market until the liquidity in this direction is completely liquidated. How can we explain when the price is about to enter the liquidation zone but suddenly turns back without liquidation? The logic is still the same. During the process of liquidation liquidity attracting the price, it is consuming its own energy. So if the market sentiment is significantly overdrawn or the price has not shown effective rebound or correction for a long time, then just a little supply or demand in the spot market can cause the price to turn back without completing the liquidation. And the liquidity in the liquidation zone only shows opening records, not closing records, which we cannot quantify! On the other hand, sudden supply and demand in the spot market are often influenced by external events, the US stock market, and news, creating an illusion that news affects prices... Therefore, the main factor maintaining the trend is still the continuously accumulating futures liquidity, while the spot market only needs to make a simple breakthrough or rejection at the end of any oscillation range, regardless of size!
In addition to the liquidity map on data websites, you can also follow my weekly updated historical chart of global futures liquidation zones every Monday. The difference between the two: the online liquidation map cannot mark liquidity-intensive zones from the past several months one by one, because when a liquidity zone with higher liquidation intensity appears, the previously valuable liquidation zones lose their significance... However, I can manually mark key zones weekly for long-term reference! For example, the recent rebound just liquidated the short liquidity zone I marked two months ago (the red long rectangle in the chart). If we only focus on the real-time liquidation map, we won't obtain this long-term liquidity data. This is why I spend a lot of time manually drawing this historical liquidation map. Back to the current market situation, the blue price tags in the chart represent areas with new liquidity. Clearly, we can see that the liquidation price of new short positions is approaching the 99,800 area near 10w, while the liquidation price of new long positions remains around 83,000. Although the short-term long-short leverage ratio mentioned in the quote tends to be balanced, the long-term leverage ratio still slightly favors shorts. This might explain the current situation: "Although the price seems to need a correction, it feels like it just can't drop." My perspective is that over the past two weeks, due to the conclusion of the tariff war, the market has entered a short-term "non-response period" to external events, making futures liquidation the main driver of price changes. However, entering this week, the situation has clearly changed: Tuesday brings developments regarding BTC strategic reserves. Wednesday sees the release of a slew of macroeconomic data... This week is likely to return to a "event-driven" market atmosphere. Therefore, I still recommend everyone to control their positions and adapt to the market from the perspective of reducing drawdown risks if the direction is unclear. In short, don't get stuck in a rigid mindset! #OKX
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