📰 Amberdata Weekly Derivatives Newsletter — Market Overview (Macro & Crypto Options) This week’s edition dives into macro developments, crypto market movement, and one of the most promising IPOs in digital asset history — @circle $CRCL. With Fed policy, inflation data, and stablecoin legislation all moving markets, the newsletter offers tactical insights for navigating both traditional and crypto volatility. Key Points to Highlight 🔑 🏦 Fed & Macro Landscape → Fed holds rates steady, signaling patience as inflation eases. → Inflation reading at +2.8% YoY remains favorable despite trade-related concerns. → Fed’s preferred PCE inflation index drops Friday — a key signal for market direction. → Market expects rate cuts starting in September, though Fed guidance pushes that into 2025. → Fed Governor Waller floats a July rate cut, citing falling inflation and flexible policy options. 💹 Volatility & Risk Sentiment → VIX volatility index briefly spiked due to Iran/US tensions, but equity markets remained resilient. → Crypto market opened weak on geopolitical risk-off news but is stabilizing alongside equities. → ETH vol in backwardation (suggesting near-term fear), while BTC vol remains calm and constructive. 🪙 CRCL IPO Dominates Crypto Headlines → Circle (CRCL) IPO closed at $240/share, valuing the firm at $53 billion. → Massive +80% spike in options implied volatility week-over-week. → Strong call skew (+40% on 10-day ∆20 risk-reversals) shows bullish sentiment and speculative interest. → CRCL viewed as undervalued relative to ETH ($270B mkt cap) and XRP ($125B mkt cap). → USDC has a compliance and multi-chain head start. Viewed as the “cash of Web2,” extending beyond DeFi. 💡 Trading Strategy Ideas (NFA) → Avoid buying IPO highs; instead consider cash-secured put selling 50% out-of-the-money. → Historical examples from COIN and MSTR show that volatility spikes often fade quickly. → ETH options: Ratio put spreads (buy 1, sell 2) could profit from a bounce if equities stay strong. → BTC strategy: With vol buyers overpaying, fade IV when possible — spot is grinding higher steadily. 🗓️ Upcoming Macro Events (ET) → Friday 8:30 am – PCE Inflation Index (key for rate cut timing) 💬 TL;DR → The Circle IPO (CRCL) is the standout opportunity — seen as a longer-term crypto equity with upside potential. → The Stablecoin Bill boosts USDC’s positioning, helping Circle gain ground over Tether. → Macro volatility remains relatively muted, but Friday’s PCE data could shift rate expectations. → Crypto vol is diverging — ETH pricing in fear, BTC holding steady. Opportunities exist in strategic options structures. Read the full @genesisvol newsletter here.