📰 Amberdata Weekly Derivatives Newsletter — Market Overview (Macro & Crypto Options)
This week’s edition dives into macro developments, crypto market movement, and one of the most promising IPOs in digital asset history — @circle $CRCL. With Fed policy, inflation data, and stablecoin legislation all moving markets, the newsletter offers tactical insights for navigating both traditional and crypto volatility.
Key Points to Highlight 🔑
🏦 Fed & Macro Landscape
→ Fed holds rates steady, signaling patience as inflation eases.
→ Inflation reading at +2.8% YoY remains favorable despite trade-related concerns.
→ Fed’s preferred PCE inflation index drops Friday — a key signal for market direction.
→ Market expects rate cuts starting in September, though Fed guidance pushes that into 2025.
→ Fed Governor Waller floats a July rate cut, citing falling inflation and flexible policy options.
💹 Volatility & Risk Sentiment
→ VIX volatility index briefly spiked due to Iran/US tensions, but equity markets remained resilient.
→ Crypto market opened weak on geopolitical risk-off news but is stabilizing alongside equities.
→ ETH vol in backwardation (suggesting near-term fear), while BTC vol remains calm and constructive.
🪙 CRCL IPO Dominates Crypto Headlines
→ Circle (CRCL) IPO closed at $240/share, valuing the firm at $53 billion.
→ Massive +80% spike in options implied volatility week-over-week.
→ Strong call skew (+40% on 10-day ∆20 risk-reversals) shows bullish sentiment and speculative interest.
→ CRCL viewed as undervalued relative to ETH ($270B mkt cap) and XRP ($125B mkt cap).
→ USDC has a compliance and multi-chain head start.
Viewed as the “cash of Web2,” extending beyond DeFi.
💡 Trading Strategy Ideas (NFA)
→ Avoid buying IPO highs; instead consider cash-secured put selling 50% out-of-the-money.
→ Historical examples from COIN and MSTR show that volatility spikes often fade quickly.
→ ETH options: Ratio put spreads (buy 1, sell 2) could profit from a bounce if equities stay strong.
→ BTC strategy: With vol buyers overpaying, fade IV when possible — spot is grinding higher steadily.
🗓️ Upcoming Macro Events (ET)
→ Friday 8:30 am – PCE Inflation Index (key for rate cut timing)
💬 TL;DR
→ The Circle IPO (CRCL) is the standout opportunity — seen as a longer-term crypto equity with upside potential.
→ The Stablecoin Bill boosts USDC’s positioning, helping Circle gain ground over Tether.
→ Macro volatility remains relatively muted, but Friday’s PCE data could shift rate expectations.
→ Crypto vol is diverging — ETH pricing in fear, BTC holding steady. Opportunities exist in strategic options structures.
Read the full @genesisvol newsletter here.
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