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US growth accelerated in Q3, while September’s spending data showed softer momentum.
The Oct 29 releases reported:
• Q3 real GDP: 3.4% annualized growth, versus 2.2% in Q2
• September core PCE inflation: 3.1% YoY
• Headline PCE inflation: 3.6% YoY
• Real consumer spending: broadly flat MoM
GDP exceeded the 3.2% forecast, but the sources of growth matter. Investment, consumer spending and government spending supported output. Investment growth was led by inventories and equipment.
Inventory accumulation contributes to GDP, but differs from final customer demand. An increase can reflect planned stockbuilding or changes in sales, so it does not automatically mean stronger demand or unwanted stock.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, combining consumer spending and private fixed investment, grew 4.9% annualized, versus 4.6% in Q2. Unlike headline GDP, this measure excludes inventory investment, government spending and net exports.
The quarterly and monthly readings cover different windows. GDP describes July through September, while the spending report captures September alone. A strong quarter can end with slower consumption momentum.
Nominal consumer spending rose 0.5% in September, while the PCE price index also increased 0.5%. Real spending was essentially unchanged, and real disposable personal income fell 0.3%, adding context to household purchasing power.
The policy backdrop remains a balance between economic resilience and elevated inflation. The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in October in a 10-2 vote, with two officials favoring a 25 basis point increase.
The GDP release is an advance estimate and remains subject to revision. Growth composition, subsequent inflation readings and labor data will help clarify whether September’s softer spending becomes a broader trend.
Will resilient growth or softer household spending carry more weight in December’s rate decision?
#USCorePCERisesTo3.1%
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