đšWhy #Bitcoinâs 4-Year Cycle No Longer Worksđš
For over a decade, traders have used the BTC halving clock to predict tops and bottoms.
But the market has changed and sticking to that rule might make you sell too early.
Hereâs why the old model is breaking and what Iâm watching insteadđ§”đ
1/x Weâre around 470 days post-halving.
If the classic 4-year cycle still worked, $BTC would be racing toward a blowoff top right now.
But price action hasnât followed the script and that changes everything.
2/x The 4-year theory isnât just about time, itâs about price.
Past peaks came when #BTC hit the top of long-term valuation bands (rainbow, power law).
Weâre nowhere near those levels today.
3/x For the theory to hold, #BTC would need to go from $115K to $200K in under 4 months.
Thatâs 2020 style euphoria.
Could it happen? Yes. Is it likely? Iâm not betting on it.
4/x If the cycle does play out, itâs actually bullish now.
It would mean a 2x from here into year end and likely an altcoin mania straight after.
Not a reason to sell early.
5/x If the cycle is broken? The top gets pushed out into 2025â2026.
More time to accumulate. More time for trends to develop.
This is still bullish.
6/x Altcoins tell the same story.
In 2017 & 2021, alt seasons started around 1 year post-halving when #BTC dominance broke key lows.
Weâre well past that point this cycle and dominance is still in an uptrend.
9/x Right now, M2 is just starting to accelerate.
We havenât seen anything close to the liquidity surges that drove past bull market tops.
10/x For alts, the same applies.
Sustained alt seasons need a long uptrend in liquidity. That shift has barely begun.
Rushing for a âcycle topâ this year is ignoring the bigger driver.
11/x The takeaway? Stop letting the 4-year cycle dictate your trades.
Price structure and liquidity matter more now. Both still point to upside.
12/x While we wait, choppy conditions are perfect for my Pionex grid bots, buy low, sell high, and remove emotion from trading.
Copy them here đÂ
Stay bullish, stay patient. What are your thoughts on the 4 year #Bitcoin cycle?
Drop your thoughts below!đ
221.8K
1.26K
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.