I personally believe that staking/net deflation cannot drive the continuous growth of ETH-based MicroStrategy; it is merely a liquidity overflow. The first issue is the limited interest margin. Currently, the ETH staking yield is about 3%, with an annual net inflation of approximately 0.7%, which translates to a net yield of 2.3% after accounting for inflation. If we want to rely on this yield to drive continuous buying, the opportunity cost of funds + real-time trading costs must be < 2.3%. Clearly, this is not feasible; even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates five times this year, it still won't hold. The second issue is that the ETH ecosystem's REV (Real Economic Value) is too low. A simplified net deflation rate ≈ (Market Cap + Inflation Emission + REV) / (Market Cap + Inflation Emission) - 1 = REV / (Market Cap + Inflation Emission). With inflation remaining constant, the net deflation rate is directly proportional to REV, and in June, the ETH ecosystem's REV was only $45 million, even lower than Solana. What does it mean when the price is dozens of times higher than competitors, yet the revenue is still low? Of course, some may think that ETH will grow, but currently, the three major narratives of Payfi, the big casino, and RWA have little to do with ETH. The first two are basically unrelated to ETH, and the third can contribute to TVL, but the REV contribution is very limited. So where will the growth come from? I don't see it. From these two perspectives, Solana's staking is more promising. Although inflation is high, the net deflation rate after staking recovery is also high, with high REV + high REV growth. The only disadvantage is that its market cap is much lower than ETH, and funds tend to flow from the top down. At this point, some may say that Solana's SSK has staking, but why is there no volume? This is because SSK is a severely stripped-down version of a Staking ETF, with only 48% of assets staked, and it is achieved through 21Shares' nested structure. This means double the opportunity cost of funds + high management fees. Roughly calculated, the ROI can only reach 1.5%, which is even worse than ETH... So what is truly worth looking forward to is a full-fledged Solana Staking ETF with a staking rate exceeding 90%, direct staking, and management fees rolled down to below 0.5%.
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