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“Annualizing today’s transaction fees assumes the market will stay hot forever.” DeFi researcher Ignas made a sharp point: projecting long-term returns from peak trading activity ignores how quickly markets cool down. The model is simple: Trading volume → fees → buybacks/burns → token demand → higher price → more trading. But the volume has to keep coming. Coinbase’s trading volume fell 74% from Q4 2021 to the following year. Meme tokens can suffer even deeper drawdowns.