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Zentrova
Let’s talk about the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data, because honestly, I was stunned after seeing the numbers.
Payrolls came in at -23,000, versus expectations of +80,000 — a massive miss of more than 100,000 jobs. On top of that, May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The previous two months were already being revised lower, and now the latest reading has turned negative.
The message is pretty clear: the labor market is cooling much faster than expected.
But there’s a major contradiction.
The unemployment rate actually fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. So we’re seeing employment contract while the unemployment rate declines. Wage growth also slowed sharply, with monthly wages rising just 0.1%.
That gives the Fed a very complicated picture.
Following the report, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike dropped from above 50% to around 44%. Investors are increasingly questioning whether the Fed can realistically continue tightening if the labor market keeps weakening.
Then came the interesting part: the market didn’t rally across the board — it split.
$XAU broke above $4,370, with futures closing around $4,399.7, pushing back toward the $4,400 level.
The logic is straightforward:
Weak employment → lower odds of rate hikes → softer dollar → stronger gold.
For gold, this was a very clear bullish signal.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus
#AIMemoryStressTest
#SpaceXUnlockRebound
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