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$BTC
The ETF saw $773 million withdrawn over the past two days, with $635 million out on Thursday alone, the largest single-day outflow since June. By past experience, this volume should have already smashed through, yet BTC is still hovering around 80400.
I recognize the 80,000 level; the claim about institutional cost is not exaggerated. There was over 450 million liquidated in 24 hours, 86% of which were longs holding on. The initial drop washed out the chasing longs, but the price did not continue to collapse.
These days it’s grinding between 79,000 and 82,000. I tend to think it’s a turnover rather than a sell-off—the ETF is selling short-term allocation positions, while on-chain signals are actually accumulating. Of course, I was optimistic like this last time and got proven wrong, so I’ll wait and see; if it really breaks 79,000, I’ll admit I was wrong.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 10月28日，大概率什么都不会发生。 CME数据摆在那里——10月维持利率不变的概率90.6%，加息概率不到10%。市场早就把“这次不动”定价完了。 沃什上任后的习惯你也知道：不给前瞻指引。他大概率不会在发布会上说“我们12月再看”，也不会说“通胀仍然太高”。他会说一堆让你回去猜的话。 所以10.28的“不加息”，不是鸽派胜利。是把引爆器，交给了12月。 12月加息25个基点的概率，已经74.8%。高盛那边的判断：大多数官员支持每隔一次会议加息，12月和明年3月各一次。 10.28不是发令枪。它是一个把子弹推上膛的动作。 10月29日，Strategy财报。 所有人都在猜“MSTR又买了多少BTC”。这根本不重要。 重要的是84.85万枚比特币，均价75,446美元，总成本640亿美元。BTC现在在哪里？80,800美元附近，81000已经从支撑跌成了阻力，小时级别完全空头趋势。 也就是说，Strategy的账面利润空间，只剩下不到7%的缓冲垫。再跌一点，全球最大的比特币财库公司，就会进入“浮盈变浮亏”的叙事切换。 更值得看的是：融资回购特别股（STRC）在吃掉现金流。10月那一周，公BitGo, Valour, Bitget all listed? Don't get excited—Core doesn't have heavy VC holdings, only "business cooperation"
Many promotions package institutions like BitGo, Valour, Bitget as signals of heavy capital holdings, but the essence must be distinguished: Core has been Fair Launch since its inception, with no traditional VC private rounds, no top funds investing in the project or locking low-price chips.
BitGo is a custody service provider, offering BTC dual staking custody channels; Valour issues a London-listed BTC staking ETP, using Core's staking mechanism underneath, earning asset management service fees; Bitget belongs to exchange ecosystem cooperation, launching trading and staking products. Their core cooperation target is BTC staking business, not continuous buying or supporting CORE tokens.
Such business cooperation can be terminated at any time, and institutions do not bear the obligation to support the coin price. Although BTCS has a small allocation of CORE in the treasury from the secondary market, the scale is limited and cannot be considered a strategic heavy holding.
Combined with the current situation: official nodes continue to withdraw, SatPay is long delayed, on-chain fees are almost zero, and ghost chip selling pressure remains unresolved. Institutional infrastructure cooperation is a plus, but it cannot be taken as a guaranteed trump card for a bull market rise.$ETH December rate hike expectations are back on the table, and I've heard this so often my ears have calluses.
The transmission chain has three links: stronger rate hike expectations push the dollar and yields up, and risk assets collectively get pressured. The US stock market is closed over the weekend, $ETH is holding around 2350, just under 2350 dollars, 13% lower than 30 days ago, but 24% higher than 90 days ago. You read that right, those who bought in Q3 are currently in profit; the pullback just wiped out the 7-day floating gains.
The trouble is on the spot ETF side, where there has been net outflow recently, with money pulling out. $ETH Funding rates remain positive, BTC and ETH rebounds are just opportunities to reduce positions
After BTC broke the key support at 81,000, the funding rate still stayed positive, which is very telling. The market has broken down and weakened, but long positions have not been fully cleared, with serious leftover leverage, making the market structure impure.
ETH's trend is even weaker, continuously hitting new lows and showing a clear stepwise decline. The current slight stabilization is just a brief pause during the downtrend, not a true bottom.
The core issue: prices have dropped, yet longs are still stubbornly paying the funding rate.
A large number of long positions are trapped and not exiting; any slight rebound allows trapped longs to escape, while shorts add positions accordingly, resulting in heavy selling pressure above.
A true bottom signal requires the funding rate to turn negative and leverage to be fully cleaned out, which has not happened at all.
BTC no longer has its previous resilience and is weakening entirely in line with market risk appetite. ETH's continuous weakness drags down overall market sentiment, with funds generally seeking safety and high-volatility altcoins left unbacked.
The market won't see an extreme one-sided crash, but the overall rhythm has weakened: rebounds are shorter and less sustained, making chasing highs very low in cost-effectiveness.
In the short term, if BTC stabilizes above 81,000 again, it will trigger short covering and a technical rebound.
But everyone must distinguish: this is a correction, not a reversal.
Do not bottom-fish or chase the rally.
Every rebound is the best opportunity to reduce positions and hedge risk. Good news about AI chips was circulating in the morning, but by the afternoon, coins labeled with AI had fallen even harder.
$AI traded over $74 million and was still in the top ten by volume, yet it dropped more than 5% in 24 hours; $NEAR traded $115 million ranking 5th, down about 3%. In contrast, $ZEC, which is not labeled AI, sat at 4th in volume and was still rising.
My judgment: It's not that the AI narrative is broken, but money is withdrawing from the labels. BTC is still hovering around 80,600 with almost no movement, indicating this is not a market-wide panic but a targeted retreat—pricing power is returning to volume, and labels no longer provide a premium.
Signals you can watch yourself: labeled coins still rank in the top ten by volume, but their prices continuously underperform the market, meaning the premium is retreating.
The above is my personal market observation, data as of today, and does not constitute investment advice; crypto assets are highly volatile, please make independent judgments and bear your own risks (DYOR).
For the AI coins that have fallen, do you dare to catch them or just watch first?
#欧意星球 #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #加密市场The attitude of Trump expressed in this report by Jin10 can actually be ignored; it records the statements Trump made when questioned by reporters during his campaign rally in Florida on October 24.
Especially since Trump was in the campaign stage, the reliability of all statements must be seriously weakened, as they are ultimately for political vote service and do not represent his true thoughts.
However, another piece of news might have a slightly bullish impact on Brent — the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan clearly stated that Pakistan Army Marshal Munir's visit to Tehran this Monday was as a messenger.
But Iran stated that this time it was Iran sending a message to Trump through Munir, not Munir bringing a message from Trump.
Why is this bullish for crude oil? Because this news proves that the communication channel between the US and Iran still exists, but there has been no positive progress in the situation; having a channel but no progress means both sides' attitudes, conditions, and thresholds are tougher, which is indeed unfavorable for the US-Iran situation!#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.8%, BTC fell to 81,000, with $260 million liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions.
Why does the crypto market collapse as soon as tech stocks cough?
Because all the leverage is on the same side.
This round isn’t a problem with crypto itself, it’s being dragged down.
Do you still think BTC is a safe-haven asset? #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Raising money by issuing preferred shares to buy Bitcoin was a popular tactic for a while, but preferred shares require continuous interest payments. MicroStrategy recently spent a large sum to buy back preferred shares, but they actually bought very few coins.3. The real highlight this week is the FOMC
In the early morning of October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Although 94% of economists expect the rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, the real focus is on the path in December.
The new Fed Chair, Powell, is famously hawkish, and the market is guessing whether he will leave room for a rate hike in December. Once a hawkish signal is released, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, and Bitcoin will face pressure.
4. Which is more resilient, BTC or ETH?
To be honest, ETH is clearly weaker than BTC in this round. ETH ETFs have continuous outflows, on-chain activity is cooling down, and the 2300 level has been repeatedly tested.
Although BTC has also fallen, there is relatively strong buying support near 80,000, and funds will step in if it drops further.
What’s the outlook?
In the short term, the 80,000 level is very critical. If the Middle East situation continues to worsen or the FOMC turns hawkish, BTC may test the 78,000-79,000 range. Conversely, if the situation eases and the Fed holds steady, it is highly likely that BTC will stabilize and rebound near 80,000. Brothers, the market this weekend is quite interesting. BTC directly fell below $80,000, hitting a low of 79,700, marking a new low in over a month. ETH didn't fare much better, once dropping below 2,300.
Today, let's review what has happened recently to see the real reasons behind this drop and what to expect next.
1. The Middle East situation is the direct trigger
The US has taken significant actions these past two days, withdrawing diplomatic personnel and military bases from the Middle East. Embassies in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Lebanon, Qatar, and Jordan have all entered restricted operation status.
Intelligence reports say Iran's assassination plans targeting Americans have reached an advanced stage, and Trump has warned that the US might strike Iran again at any time.
With this geopolitical risk, the first reaction of capital is to flee. Bitcoin, as a risk asset, was hit first.
2. ETF funds are fleeing ahead of prices
A key detail in this drop is that ETF funds are moving faster than prices.
On October 22, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million in one day. On October 24, another $227 million flowed out. Ethereum ETFs were even worse, with $320 million outflow in a week, with redemption intensity ten times that of BTC.A new week begins, and the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting from October 27 to 28 (Eastern Time), a macro event that cannot be ignored in this market cycle. Looking back at the last time: on September 16, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, at which time $BTC was around $76,000. Now it is around $80,000, about 6% higher. Three key points: 1. Inflation: September's forecast shows the median PCE inflation for 2026 at 3.7%, still significantly above the 2% target. 2. Oil prices: Due to the Iran war, Brent crude oil has risen above $117 per barrel, which will increase inflation concerns. 3. Wording: Analysts often say that the "surprise" in the rate decision usually has a greater impact than the decision itself. The market cares more about whether rate hikes will continue afterward. I haven't found reliable real-time data on how much the market is betting this time; please refer to CME FedWatch for specific probabilities and don't trust second-hand screenshots. My view: volatility on the night of the decision is usually large because macro news impacts the stock market, the dollar, and cryptocurrencies simultaneously. If you trade contracts, reducing leverage before and after the decision is more practical than guessing whether rates will be raised. What signal do you think the Fed will send this time? Will $BTC try again below $80,000 because of this? Let's discuss in the comments. The above is personal opinion and public information compilation, not investment advice; please judge risks yourself. #FederalReserve #FThree Faces of Buybacks — Burn, Retain, and Void
"Buyback" is a frequently mentioned keyword in current narratives, but ultimately, are tokens burned, retained, or decoupled from revenue?
$HYPE is the most extreme example: about 97%–99% of fees are used by the aid fund to buy HYPE on the open market and permanently burn it, with cumulative burns exceeding $4 billion. The mechanism chain is very short; burning directly returns value, and buybacks are almost synchronized with protocol revenue.
$JUP presents a different scenario: the protocol once used 50% of fees for buybacks and locking, with cumulative investment exceeding $70 million. However, during the same period, JUP’s price dropped nearly 89% from its peak. The co-founder publicly questioned the effectiveness of buybacks in January 2026, as locking and retention rather than burning reduced the certainty of supply contraction.
$GRASS shows a third state: revenue in the first half of 2026 was about $14.53 million, with a full-year guidance of $65–75 million, but all revenue flows to subsidiaries DataCo and SearchCo, and token holders have no direct claim. The scale of open market buybacks of GRASS is minimal.
Summary:
Beyond the mere presence or absence of buybacks, it is more important to verify whether tokens are burned or retained, and whether revenue itself is decoupled from the token. HYPE’s burns are immediate and continuous; JUP’s buybacks come with locking and ongoing selling pressure tug-of-war; GRASS’s revenue growth has yet to be transmitted to the token through mechanisms. These three represent three different stages of value capture.On October 25, according to PANews, analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted a reminder: BTC's volatility range is continuously narrowing, with the high-low price difference over the past 30 days compressed from 13% to 6%, and the price has been stuck between $80,000 and $86,000 for 9 consecutive days. The spring is being compressed tighter and tighter; a breakout is just a matter of time. ════════════ 📊【Market Overview】 🟠 Current BTC price: $80,695｜24h -0.11%, 7d -1.15% 👑 BTC market dominance: 60.73%, funds are still clustered in BTC 🌍 Total network market cap: $2.65 trillion｜24h -0.78% 😐 Fear & Greed Index: 54, neutral, sentiment neither hot nor cold Yesterday, the intraday price once touched the 365-day simple moving average before rebounding, finally closing at $80,500 — the lowest close in the past 30 days. Note this detail: 【Closing price hits a new low, but the moving average held】, bulls and bears are clashing near the moving average. ════════════ 🔍【What does the narrowing mean】 The narrowing volatility range usually ends with an explosive move; the direction is uncertain, but the magnitude will not be small. Key resistance above: $86,000, only a volume-backed close above this level means bulls regain control. 📌 Critical support below: 365-day moving average; once effectively broken, technical traders will turn bearish collectively. The bear representative Peter Schiff has already spoken out, targeting the next support at $75,000 and mocking ETF holders for having no weekend support While $SOL is falling, the open interest is climbing, and the funding rate has turned negative—a classic short squeeze is brewing. Weekend market liquidity is insufficient, yet shorts are flooding in heavily. We've seen this scenario before. Low liquidity combined with crowded positions means that once a short squeeze hits, the market will swing violently. When everyone is betting in the same direction, don't go against the trend. Stay patient, watch for a wave of short covering, and strictly enforce stop losses. The situation could get chaotic quickly. $SOL $ETH $BTC Everyone who went all-in following Duan Yongping has suffered heavy losses
Pop Mart peaked at 450 billion, but in the past year it has plummeted over 60%, with more than 270 billion HKD evaporated.
In May, Duan Yongping announced he had spent 11 billion HKD to bottom-fish, becoming the second largest shareholder. However, after his purchase, Pop Mart dropped another 36 billion. Calculated, this investment currently has an unrealized loss exceeding 2 billion HKD...
At that time, many of Duan Yongping's fans were very excited and heavily invested, now facing unrealized losses of about 15% to 20%. If leveraged, this 20% drop is enough to trigger a margin call...
Following Duan Yongping to trade stocks is not a good idea. I still remember the Tencent case:
700 dropped to 600
Duan: Tencent is good, bottom-fishing buy
Dropped to 550
Duan: I understand Tencent a bit, but not fully, bottom-fishing buy
400
Duan: Buy
250
Duan: Actually, I don’t understand Tencent very well, I only bought 1%
350
Duan: Buy some Tencent PUTs
The harshest truth in the capital market is: you and the big players are simply not at the same table.
Duan Yongping has the backing of perpetual cash flow from his industrial businesses, with OPPO and vivo paying tens of billions in dividends annually as support. This 2 billion unrealized loss might just be one year’s dividends for him; he still plays golf every day and waiting ten years or so is no big deal.
Retail investors blindly follow to buy stocks, using money meant for buying a house, marriage, or living expenses, charging in after seeing news about the big players, and suffer a 30% loss that directly damages their financial health...
In short, with different capital scales, copying others’ trades is just waiting to dieThis can be considered somewhat good news. I just saw that the SEC has included tokenization in its 2027 regulatory priorities, which should be a signal that regulation is shifting from enforcement to rulemaking. However, I still remind everyone not to misinterpret this kind of news as an imminent positive development. Even if the valuation of compliant issuers will be reflected in advance, the secondary market money will have to wait until the rules are implemented. Any benefits effective only in 2027 are worth just 30% today. Moreover, in my view, the biggest beneficiaries of this framework will not be DeFi, but rather banks and asset managers who fear uncertainty the most.Are new BTC buyers really back? This on-chain chart is worth a close look.
Glassnode tracks the proportion of BTC moved in the last 3 months relative to the realized market cap of the entire network. It measures the cost-weighted active coins recently, not the number of new entrants.
At the end of past bull markets, this ratio reached about 85% in 2018 and over 70% in 2021. But at the October 2025 peak, it was only 37%, then continued to decline, approaching historical bear bottom levels by July 2026.
The turning point is: the ratio has now risen back to about 21%, with coins aged 1–3 months contributing the most. This means some coins active in August were not quickly transferred again, indicating market absorption and holding.
But there is a caveat: "younger" coins do not equal a surge of new funds. Turnover of existing coins and wallet migrations also affect the statistics, so one chart alone cannot declare a bull market restart.
In October, BTC found support around $80,000, but supply pressure remains between $85,000 and $87,500. Going forward, we need to watch the proportion of young coins, ETF fund flows, and whether spot trading continues to improve.
New buyers have indeed started joining the group, but just because some speak up doesn’t mean everyone is ready to hold long term.
Do you think this wave is a recovery or just a rebound?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 High interest rates won't retreat, don't mistake a pause for a reversal (｡•́︿•̀｡)
The market treats "no rate hike in October, rate cut by year-end" as the script, but PMI disrupts it: manufacturing hits the strongest in 53 months, and corporate selling prices rise at the fastest pace in over a year. The economy is so hot, inflation won't cool down, so why would the Fed rush to ease? The real variable isn't whether to hike or not, but that high interest rates will last longer (¬‿¬).
BTC: Sentiment supports sideways trading, ETFs act like pulse capital inflows and outflows, no long-term base seen. Everyone hopes for liquidity, but if funding costs don't drop, who wants to buy at high levels? Long-term bullish is correct, but short-term beware of pullbacks; pause ≠ reversal, be cautious chasing highs, and firmly set stop losses on short positions (ง •̀_•́)ง.
ETH: Still a fragile follower. ETF bleeding hasn't stopped, the ecosystem lacks new breakout points. High interest rate drain hits it first, and when the market softens, it falls harder. Don't mistake sideways for stabilization; if BTC tests the bottom, ETH's decline will amplify, don't catch falling knives (￣▽￣)~*.
XAUT: Gold logic is the opposite. Short-term rebounds during high interest periods are mostly fake moves, but geopolitical conflicts + central bank buying are the trump cards. When the market truly prices in a "hard landing," safe-haven funds will take over, and gold will run an independent trend. Don't trap long-term logic with short-term sentiment (¬‿¬).
$ETH $ETH $XAU
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The water is calm and the river flows, but there is a line trembling beneath the surface
For the past one and a half hours, neither BTC nor ETH has exploded. BTC seems to be pressed repeatedly between 80,300 and 80,400, with almost zero net movement in an hour and a half; the calmness is so dull it makes people sleepy. ETH moved slightly, sliding from around 2,340 down to 2,336, a drop of just a few tenths of a percent, not even reaching the threshold of a "plunge."$ETH
Small moves, but the atmosphere is intense. Derivatives trading volume shrank by 11.66% in 24 hours, and short-term bettors are clearly retreating. What really keeps people on edge is the line beneath the surface: a certain whale’s ETH long position liquidation price is only about one hundred dollars away from today’s low, and they just added $9.21 million in margin to stay alive at midnight. The price hasn’t collapsed, but it hasn’t left the danger zone either, like a person standing on the edge of a cliff scrolling on their phone—feet haven’t slipped, but the heartbeat hasn’t stopped.$BTC
If the price chooses to "not move" to survive the liquidation line, is that a successful defense, or just postponing the explosion by a few hours? No one knows the answer. The key is on October 27–28; the market is waiting for a bigger variable to unfold. Big money chooses to lie low, short-term funds choose to watch, and naturally the market is sucked into a vacuum.
In short: it’s not that no one wants an explosion, but the fuse has been pulled out by margin calls, the explosives dampened by macro factors, and even the igniters are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s starting gun. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ This week's ETF fund flows look quite divided 👀
BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $301.2 million over the week, but the rhythm was quite twisted: over $1 billion came in during the first three days, then $773.5 million flowed out consecutively on Thursday and Friday. The whole week's support basically relied on IBIT alone, which saw an inflow of $565.7 million over five days, while FBTC and ARKB actually experienced outflows.
ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $220.7 million for the week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow exceeding $1.1 billion in October.
My understanding: institutions haven't fled but are being selective, concentrating funds into top BTC products while ETH is being neglected. The prices reflect this as well, with BTC hovering around 80,000 and ETH dropping to about 2,350.
The biggest variable next week is the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28, with oil prices still above $117. If the meeting leans hawkish, outflows like those on Thursday and Friday may repeat; if the tone is more dovish, BTC is more likely to rebound first, and ETH will need capital inflows to outperform.
Personally, I am lightly positioned before the meeting and not betting on direction. Do you think ETH will continue to be drained?
Sources: Farside Investors, NewsBTC, Investing.com
Personal views only, not investment advice, DYOR
$BTC $ETH
#ETF fund flows #Federal Reserve meeting #BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC is currently reported at about 80,650, after dipping to 79,146 over the weekend and then recovering above 80,000. ETF had a net inflow of 5.05 million yesterday, with IBIT alone taking 16.78 million, but on a weekly basis, IBIT took 566 million while others withdrew 265 million, indicating a fragile structure. The probability of FOMC maintaining interest rates is 90.6%, with no position taken before the meeting, waiting for a clear signal with volume.$SNDK 10/29 This earnings report, I tend to think it will exceed expectations, and I am optimistic it can rally after the release.
The company's adjusted EPS guidance is $44–46, with the market expecting $45.22, basically right in the middle. Last quarter's EPS was $39.25, and this guidance has already moved up quite a bit. The logic of NAND price increases and locked-in long-term contracts still holds, so I think the performance has a chance to be even better.
However, the stock price has been falling, dropping from $1,887 back to $1,238, a pullback of over 30%. Compared to the last earnings report, profit expectations are higher, but the stock price has been moving downward recently, which is also why I am leaning bullish this time.
Of course, a big drop doesn't necessarily mean it will rise. But my judgment is that if this earnings report beats expectations and next quarter's guidance doesn't disappoint, the previously suppressed sentiment might ease, leading to a rebound.
I will focus on next quarter's revenue guidance: if it can reach above $12 billion and maintain gross margin, that would be more reassuring; if it falls below $11 billion or gross margin drops significantly, then this judgment would need to be revised.
So my prediction this time is: earnings will be favorable, expect a rebound after the release, first seeing if it can recover $1,300. As for whether it can continue up to $1,450–1,550, that depends on the guidance and capital reaction.ETH smart money trader position core data analysis, both longs and shorts under pressure, who is really making money!!!
ETH current price 2346.37, down 1.13%, current funding rate 0.0079%.
Smart money total positions 1.62B USDT, total traders 2175, nominal long-short ratio 23.96%.
Longs (793 traders)
Current position 313.47M USDT, average entry price 2863.83, unrealized floating loss 69.132M USDT, profit ratio only 25.97%, vast majority of longs are trapped, entry cost far above current price, huge pressure.
Shorts (1382 traders)
Current position 1.30B USDT, average entry price 2311.51, unrealized floating loss 19.4258M USDT, profit ratio 65.26%. Number of short traders and position size significantly larger, although most traders are still profitable, overall accounts also show floating losses.
Current price is squeezed between long and short costs, longs deeply trapped, shorts slightly floating loss, also a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Long profit ratio less than 30%, clearly the weaker side.
For market observation reference only, does not constitute any investment advice #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $IRYS Robinhood Chain is starting to look like more than a place to trade tokenized stocks.
DEX volume fell 30% to $6.35B, yet DeFi TVL climbed to $1.058B.
And the bigger signal? Morpho had $486.8M in open loans.
Trading cooled off, but lending kept growing.
That week alone, borrowers paid ~$417K in interest + liquidation bonuses, while Morpho itself recorded $0 in protocol revenue.
The market may be shifting from speculation to financial infrastructure.
$HOOD $xHOOD
#HOODQ3TradingGrowth People buying gold to hedge against inflation might feel especially frustrated these days: energy prices are rising, yet gold prices once fell below $4000.
On Friday, spot gold touched around $3975 intraday. This trend reminds me that gold's reaction to inflation is far from the straightforward "prices go up, gold goes up" logic.
If rising energy prices make the market worry that interest rates will stay high longer, non-interest-bearing gold faces opportunity cost pressure. Coupled with the dollar, real interest rates, and position adjustments, short-term performance can completely differ from the most intuitive safe-haven logic.
I do not completely dismiss gold's long-term allocation role because of this drop, but I will reassess the expectations when buying. Using it to diversify long-term risk and expecting it to rise immediately every time the situation tightens are two different needs.
The $4000 round number is very eye-catching, but after breaking below it, we still need to see whether funds continue to sell and how interest rate expectations change. Relying on a single round number makes it hard to judge whether the adjustment has ended or just begun.
What’s most uncomfortable is that the risks we worry about are still there, yet the asset bought for hedging makes the account suffer first.
At times like this, I prefer to clarify the holding period. Long-term allocation requires the ability to withstand short-term drawdowns, while short-term trading needs separate exit conditions and cannot change plans to long-term only after a drop.
#现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 Four major events line up next week: the Federal Reserve decision, the ECB, US GDP and PCE, and Friday's options expiration. Who will trigger first is unknown, but before the explosion, there will definitely be a shakeout in the market.
$BTC is "grinding and waiting": hovering around 80800, price unchanged, positions holding against the trend, with 175 million liquidated; price not falling and positions not reducing means it's not stability, someone is still filling. No volume surge means no chase, just riding sideways to profit from volatility and losing on fees.
$ETH is "following the weakness": grinding at 2360, falling deeper, positions flowing out, 157 million liquidated; ETFs are withdrawing nearly 1 billion in October, staking at 2.6% can't compete with 5% treasury yields, so funds have no reason to return actively. Positions keep flowing out with no uptake.
$SOL is "forgotten": fluctuating at 102, positions shrinking, long liquidations, but accounts still hold over 76% longs, many talk long but sell with hands, this divergence is even more frustrating; no volume surge to show presence means no added drama.
All fees are positive: BTC 0.0071%, ETH 0.0053%, SOL 0.0062%, longs pay to hold positions; total daily liquidations across the network hit 542 million, up 14.52%, a typical sideways market deleveraging—price isn't killed, positions are.
Conclusion: No directional bets before the decision, just watch three lines—whether BTC positions keep rising, ETH positions keep shrinking, and whether SOL continues to be forgotten. Whichever changes first will move, if none change, just watch. Staying still is harder than moving; survival depends on steady hands.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The upward momentum of $IRYS is fading, yet the market is still waiting for it to "make another run" using the previous script. The original text gives a very straightforward judgment: this coin has completed its rally phase, and what follows is more likely a slow decline with occasional weak rebounds, until it is completely ignored and then a moderate recovery rally appears—an old script, replayed repeatedly. The real warning is not the drop itself, but the signal of "no one discussing it": this often marks the start of the next rebound, not the end. 😮💨 Looking at $ORDER, the original text's stance is very clear: don't touch it. The control is extremely tight, it could surge suddenly or collapse instantly, with direction not determined by fundamentals. If you must participate, only do so in small batches and be prepared to lose everything. This is not bearishness, but an acknowledgment that the price discovery mechanism for such assets has failed—in this structure, any "technical level" is an illusion. $BTC is the anchor of this narrative. The original text gives two key price levels: 80,000 and 76,000. The logic is: if 80,000 breaks first, it will lure out a batch of short-sellers, which may then trigger a strong rally; as long as 76,000 holds, the bulls still have hope, and the long-term bullish stance remains unchanged. There is an easily underestimated expectation gap here—the market treats 80,000 as resistance, but the original text treats it as a "bait level to shake out shorts." In other words, a break does not mean a bear market, but could be reverse fuel. The confirmation signal is very clear: if after losing 80,000 there is a volume spike down but a quick recovery, it is a bear trap.$APR This project itself has Jump and Coinbase backgrounds, and it did do real cash buybacks in the early stage, so the story is somewhat complete. But the fatal flaw lies in the token structure, with a circulation rate of just over 20%, and a cliff-like large unlocking is about to happen, nearly half the current circulating supply. Watch the 15-minute chart closely; after a pump, the MACD immediately forms a death cross and crashes down. This is clearly making room for low-cost chips to sell. Jumping in now is just being an ATM for others.
$RLS RLS is involved in blockchain game distribution, with only about 15% circulation, the market cap is extremely light, and any random order can distort the candlestick chart beyond recognition. The buyback and burn narrative sounds impressive, but there's no verification of where the funds come from. Its 24-hour turnover rate is extremely high, all short-term hot money quickly in and out. On the 15-minute chart, it spikes with a long upper shadow, showing obvious lack of momentum, a typical pump-and-dump; once the hype fades, the true nature is exposed.
$USELESS USELESS is on my blacklist, not even worth analyzing. Pure stagnant water variant and Meme collector, relying on the name to disgust people, pumping once to scam once. This kind of trash coin has no game theory logic at all, just block it and don't look at it; touching it is just giving away money.
In summary, with the current high-interest environment tightly suppressed, there is basically no incremental fresh capital entering the market. Altcoins are just robbing each other, chaotic and reckless. Control your hands, hold firmly the big coins like BTC and ETH with solid fundamentals for the long term, and don't touch these meat grinders. Two hundred billion dollars of capital expenditure is placed on the board at once, but what it gains is only a pawn that has yet to promote—a path pawn. This is not an offense; it is an exchange that stakes the entire rear wing.
Google's parent company chose to reveal the midgame only after the U.S. stock market closed on October 28th, a cunning move under time pressure: first letting all opponents calculate on their own for a day, then putting the answer on the table at the market open the next day. What truly makes grandmasters frown is not whether the cloud business can keep running fast, but that it pushes the 2026 budget directly to the range of 195 billion to 205 billion—this means the pawns in the deployment phase have already reached the sixth rank, the spatial advantage is real, and the permanent weaknesses are real too.
To understand this game, you must distinguish which piece is the path pawn and which is the iron horse. Search advertising is the iron horse occupying the strong central squares; moving it even one step loosens the entire defense line. Cloud computing is the most aggressively advancing path pawn; the further it goes, the more support it needs from other pieces, and the cost of support is capital expenditure. Computing infrastructure is the pawn structure itself—every pawn you push out today will come back to settle accounts with you in the form of depreciation three years later. Most people in the market only calculate one step: whether revenue exceeds expectations. But those truly sitting at the board calculate the twentieth step: when the depreciation curve will surpass the gross margin curve, and in which quarter free cash flow will start to show overlapping and isolated pawns. Once the pawn structure deteriorates, it takes more than three moves to repair, and the opponent will not give you three moves.
As for the mapping token $xMETA anchored to the U.S. stock market, it has never been an independent game. It is a response move on the adjacent board: as long as this opening system of ultra-large-scale computing power continues to push pawns forward, all suspended pieces hanging on the same system will vibrate synchronously—cloud growth is the fuse, capital expenditure is the gunpowder, and gross margin is the restraint no one wants to touch first. You think you are trading a token, but you are actually bearing the joint responsibility of the entire industry's pawn structure.
Sacrificing pieces is the easiest move to misread in this game. Giving up current free cash flow to exchange for future air superiority in computing power is theoretically valid—provided the opponent cooperates, meaning demand cannot slow down before the endgame. But once the revenue growth support line breaks, what is sacrificed is not a piece, but the pawn wall of the king's wing.
The report after the close on October 28th essentially answers a pure chess theory question: do you want a beautiful midgame or a winning endgame? Usually, you cannot have both.
True masters are not focused on the single number of cloud business growth at this moment, but on the ever-tightening restraint between depreciation and cash flow—pushing pawns across the river does not count as a win; only holding the promotion square counts. #alphabetq3cloudandaiWhen a building announces that its number of tenants has hit a record, the first question a structural engineer asks is never how much the rent has increased, but rather—whether the live load has exceeded the design value. Robinhood delivered a 32% year-over-year revenue growth and 22 billion in net deposits; this report card looks impressive on the surface, but a beautiful facade never proves that the internal framework is stable. Deposits are the foundation reserves, while trading volume is the live load pressing down daily, and live load is cyclical—like wind load, you have to verify it under the most unfavorable conditions.
What truly makes me cautious is its load-bearing system. A platform that lives off trading commissions is essentially a large-span space supported by temporary booths—crowded with people during busy times, but when it calms down, you realize there are hardly any columns in the middle. The key in Q3 is not how steep the revenue curve is, but whether there is a continuous transfer layer beneath that curve capable of transmitting vertical loads. Whether trading activity can sustain translates into engineering terms as: can the building’s natural frequency avoid resonance with market sentiment?
What is the new business? Is it an added curtain wall, or a new core tube? These are two completely different construction plans. The former only improves the appearance; the latter determines how tall the building can be. If the new business just moves revenue from Building A to Building B, that’s interior decoration, not expansion. What’s really worth monitoring is whether the foundation depth has increased along with the building height, and whether the user asset retention structure has shifted from short-term leases to long-term load-bearing walls.
Now look at that record 22 billion in net deposits. The shinier the number, the more I want to check the thickness and reinforcement of the foundation slab—are these funds settled static loads, or temporary piled loads that get withdrawn at the slightest disturbance? The capital attributes of a financial platform are like the soil quality of a building’s foundation; once the moisture content rises, the bearing capacity immediately discounts. Q2 revenue growth was 32%; if Q3 is sustained by increasing trading frequency, that’s equivalent to adding dynamic loads to the structure without fatigue verification.
I don’t care how the candlestick charts jump after the market opens; I care whether, after stripping away the financial report’s decorative layer, its load transfer path is clear, continuous, and free of stress concentrations. A financial report is like a main structure inspection—what’s exposed is always decoration, what’s hidden is the construction. When a building starts relying on continuously adding external advertising spaces to maintain popularity, its structural design lifespan was actually predetermined at the blueprint stage. #hoodq3tradinggrowth#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix will release its Q3 earnings report before 9 AM on October 28 (Wednesday) Seoul time, before 8 AM Beijing time.
Market expectations are high: FnGuide's consensus operating profit forecast is about 76.96 trillion KRW, which if realized, would mark a record sixth consecutive quarter. The biggest highlight is HBM4, which is the first quarter to fully include revenue from Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform HBM4. According to Counterpoint data, in Q2 it held about 50% of the global HBM market share, ranking first.
Three things I want to watch:
1. The shipment progress of HBM4, especially whether the capacity ramp-up of the 12-layer stacking goes smoothly;
2. Whether the Q4 guidance is further raised;
3. Whether buybacks and dividends are increased.
But the fuller the expectations, the easier it is for "good news to be fully priced in." No matter how good the earnings are, if the guidance falls short even slightly, the stock price may still drop first.
Scam warning: Whenever there is a hot topic, "Hynix concept coins" and "AI chip coins" will appear, which have nothing to do with the company. If you see them, just swipe them away.
Do you think this time it will exceed expectations or is the good news already priced in?
Not investment advice, DYORCore DAO's business on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The truth about $CORE The token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. The listed product is the BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) from third-party issuer Valour (a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies), with underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify it as "Core debuting on the London Stock Exchange," which is promotional tactics and not CORE token trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: ETP (exchange-traded product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset, and Bitcoin entering the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business Logic - Valour holds real BTC, with institutions cold storage and custody; - Entrust BTC to Core network validators for staking to generate staking rewards (nominal annualized rate of about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value; investors buying this LME stock indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Opened to professional investors in September 2025; Obtained FCA license in January 2026, opening trading to ordinary UK retail investors. 3. Core plays a role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-P+0.007% funding rate, quietly glaring on the night before BTC just broke below the previous low of 81,257 USD. Do you think this is the buyers' last stubbornness, or a signal that the shorts haven't closed their positions yet? Last night I watched ETH's bearish candle on the 23rd for a long time. It directly pierced through the 2,358 USD bottom on the 22nd, touched a low of 2,350, and now is hovering around 2,383, like steps, each one lower than yesterday. On the surface, it looks like the decline has stopped, but I always feel this kind of "stability" is more like a breath on a downhill slope, not the end. What really alerts me is not the price, but the expression on the derivatives side. BTC funding rate is still hanging at +0.007%, ETH at +0.006%, prices are breaking down, yet the bulls are still obediently paying premiums. This indicates that those chasing longs haven't fully exited, and leverage hasn't been cleared. The most fragile part of this structure is: once there is a rebound, shorts have profits to add positions, longs have residual positions waiting to break even, and every level above easily turns into selling pressure. Conversely, if the funding rate suddenly turns negative and positions shrink rapidly, that would be the fuel to squeeze shorts, but unfortunately, no sign of that yet. Looking across markets, BTC has fallen for two consecutive sessions from the high of 84,876 on the 21st, hitting a low of 80,457 on the 23rd, already losing the 81,257 support from the 21st. It is no longer the "slow-falling" safe haven, but moving down together with risk appetite. ETH is weaker, and altcoins will be more sensitive—this kind of time Core DAO's so-called trump cards (core technology + benchmark products)
1. Underlying trump card: Satoshi Plus consensus (the biggest narrative selling point)
1. Hybrid consensus: Bitcoin hashrate + BTC staking + CORE staking jointly protect the network, promoted as an "EVM public chain enhanced by Bitcoin security."
2. Supports self-custodied BTC staking: Bitcoin does not require cross-chain or wrapping; native Bitcoin timelock can be used to participate in staking and earn yields. Asset users keep their own private keys, which is the biggest difference from other BTC layer-2 solutions.
3. Dual Staking: Stake BTC + CORE simultaneously to unlock higher yields and create demand for CORE tokens.
4. EVM compatible: Ethereum tools and contracts can be directly migrated, with fast transfer speeds and low fees.
Risk: Consensus logic is complex; historically, validator reward vulnerabilities have occurred requiring hard forks to fix. The complexity of the mechanism brings security risks.
2. BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi, the main ecological track)
1. Self-custodied BTC staking system: The project's first flagship feature, turning dormant Bitcoin into interest-bearing assets without handing BTC over to custodians. It produces BTC liquid staking certificates, which can continue to be used in ecosystem lending and DEX.
2. Colend (flagship lending): The ecosystem's native leading lending protocol, allowing BTC/LST staking as collateral for loans; current status: contracts still exist, but TVL has shrunk.Core official (Core DAO) has proactively withdrawn its own validator nodes, which can be interpreted in two completely different ways depending on whether it is a voluntary offline exit from the validator set or just a temporary shutdown. 1. The most ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has a total of only 31 active validator nodes. - The foundation voluntarily withdraws its official validator nodes it operates, no longer occupying validator seats, handing block production rights over to community third-party validators. - This means the project team no longer controls the network, weakening the foundation's grip on the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization for public chains. - This is a common operation in the later stages of many public chains and does not inherently mean the chain is abandoning the project. However, there is a key point here: Although the official nodes exit, if a large amount of staked delegation remains concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, with control simply shifting from the project team to a few large holders. 2. Negative signals to watch out for (market's main concern) If the core official validator nodes suddenly exit without prior announcement, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operational contraction and budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational manpower costs. - With the token price persistently low and ecosystem revenue below expectations, the team reduces expenses and no longer bears the cost of validator nodes. - This indicates the project team is unwilling to continue investing in maintaining the chain, signaling a weakening of fundamentals. 2. Lack of team confidence $HYPE The $HYPE short position of 54 million dollars hanging on the order book at 0xf02d hasn't moved at all until now.
After such a long drop, this guy not only hasn't fled, but has also comfortably swallowed 600,000 dollars just in interest.
The bulls keep paying interest every day, basically giving money away, yet the market shows no decent resistance.
As long as this giant Buddha doesn't close the position, the bulls can't even find an opponent to counterattack.
The shorts are happily collecting rent lying down, and at this level, the bulls can't even come up with an excuse to let them take profits.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇Once the so-called institutional cost line at $BTC 80,000 breaks, all listed companies holding coins will be in the red on paper.
But the most absurd thing is that 68% of long positions on the market are still stubbornly holding on.
The funding rate is abnormally flat, obviously no one is willing to cut losses proactively. Big funds have no intention of supporting the price at this level; they are all playing dead.
With so many positions crowded here, any dip down will trigger a chain of liquidations. There is too much fuel below; unless the bulls are completely wiped out, this market simply can't hold.
#BTC
$BTC
👇I'm holding Yes. Strategy already disclosed a ~$20.9B unrealized BTC gain for Q3 (8-K, Oct 5), so most of the headline profit is already known. Consensus EPS is ~$21.5, but it's based on only 3 analysts, and my rough math puts GAAP EPS above that even after taxes. Risks: a ~$4.1B deferred tax reversal, inconsistent estimates across sources, and a history of misses. Earnings: Oct 29, after close.Sunday midday session, focus by coin:
1. LAB: 0.044→0.0377, 0.037 is the last line of defense; order book dropped 81,000, pushed up 224,900, lacking users and volume, do not bottom-fish if broken.
2. BTC: 80191, broke 81000, support at 80000; new wallet received 9,458 BTC (771.5 million) from Wintermute, market makers still on Binance; options 80000 positive Gamma may act as mechanical support. Save bullets before FOMC, if breaks 80000 look at 75000.
3. ETH: below 2433, 155 million buy orders at 2300, exchange outflow of 169,770 tokens hits April high; but OG selling, takers biased to sell. Holding 2300 confirms pullback, if broken look at 2256/2226, then down to 2200.
4. RE: 0.377 with only 310,000 volume, thin market, lack of participants; waiting for chain liquidations to trigger compensation demand.
5. Sentiment: Fear and Greed at 50 neutral. Anchors: LAB 0.037, BTC 80000, ETH 2300, no dramatics. $BTC $SOL $ETH #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Samsung's Oct 29 Q3 release matters because the preliminary profit jump only describes the outcome, not its durability. HBM4 shipments, memory pricing, and profitability across businesses can show whether AI memory demand is broadening earnings power or merely lifting a narrow part of the cycle. That distinction will shape confidence in the improvement.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook In the past month, USDC decreased by 3.7 billion, and USDT decreased by 1.194 billion. My first reaction after reading this was: where exactly did the money that people kept shouting about waiting to buy the dip go?
I checked the changes in USDC over the past month, and there are indeed many overlaps with BTC's trend. Especially during several obvious drops in USDC supply, BTC was also weakening.
But there's one thing that's easy to misjudge. For example, if someone redeems USDC for dollars, it could be withdrawing funds or just a matter of fund management; if someone uses USDC to buy BTC, the stablecoin just changed holders, and the total supply doesn't decrease at all. So just looking at this 4.9 billion doesn't tell us how much selling pressure there really is.
What I want to know more is, among these reduced stablecoins, how much truly left the crypto market, and how much just moved elsewhere.
BTC midday price is 80,583, with the 15-minute 20 moving average still pressing at 80,825. I’m not changing my bullish view for now, planning to buy near 79,600, set stop loss at 78,800, and target 82,000 first, then see about 83,500.
But this time I will watch one more condition: if when BTC breaks through 82,000, USDC and USDT supply are still continuously declining, I might halve the position I originally planned to add.
Conversely, if stablecoin supply starts to rise and BTC can reclaim the previous high, I’d be more willing to hold the long position longer.
Lately, I’ve been staring at candlesticks for a long time, but sometimes it’s really better to see if the money has come back.The open interest of perpetual contracts did not decrease but increased from October 24 to 25, rising from 8.44 million contracts to 8.79 million contracts, an increase of about 350,000 contracts. On the same day, SOL was hammered down to 98.62 intraday, nearly a 4% drop within the day.
Open interest is the sum of positions on both sides; its increase indicates new positions entering the market, but the direction cannot be inferred from open interest itself. The simultaneous price plunge and rise in open interest statistically lean more towards shorts and hedging positions. Bulls willing to take positions at this level would not cause a significant increase in open interest. The funding rate supports this: at 00:00 on October 25, the funding rate turned negative to 0.00002754%, with the mark price at 99.71. Funding rates turning from positive to negative usually occur when shorts dominate.
What truly explains the situation is the following segment. At 23:00 on October 24, open interest peaked at 8.79 million contracts, then fell to 8.52 million contracts by noon on October 25, a decrease of 270,000 contracts. During this period, the price barely moved, hovering around 102.6. Price staying flat while open interest drops indicates positions are exiting, but the direction remains unchanged.
$SOL is currently reported around 102.6. This batch of newly opened positions withdrew 270,000 contracts, and the price did not rise, indicating the exiting longs were not absorbed. A decline in open interest itself is not a bullish signal; it only shows leverage is retreating. A true bullish reversal requires the price to first break back above 104 with increased volume. Without volume movement, the exiting positions will continue to unwind.I just reviewed the stablecoin data from the past month: USDC decreased by 3.7 billion, USDT also dropped by 1.194 billion, totaling about 4.9 billion. This outflow scale is quite dramatic, no wonder BTC has been struggling to rise recently.
I specifically looked at the changes in USDC supply and BTC price; the two lines often move quite similarly. When USDC decreases sharply, BTC usually doesn't have a good time. When USDC starts to increase, BTC tends to rally.
However, there's a confusing point here: a decrease in USDC doesn't necessarily mean people are selling coins to cash out; it could also be redemptions or fund migrations. Some people exchange USDC for USDT, so the money actually remains within the market. But now even USDT supply is decreasing, so this needs closer attention.
I'm still bullish on BTC, but I don't want to chase around 81,000 these days. At midday, BTC was at 80,583, with the 15-minute 20 moving average at 80,825, which is still capping the short-term. I plan to buy around 79,500–79,900 with a stop loss at 78,800, targeting 82,000 and 83,500 upwards.
Also, I plan to add USDC changes into my daily market monitoring. Everyone is researching where liquidations are happening and which whales have opened how much leverage, but I'm more interested in seeing if stablecoin supply can rise when BTC pushes to 82,000 again.
If the coin price goes up but USDC keeps dropping, I might reduce my position first. After all, this round has been quite a rollercoaster, and I want to hold my long positions a bit longer.Weekend liquidity is poor, making it easiest to misjudge the trend phase. You might think this is altcoins catching up, but actually the market is repricing the risk of BTC. I've been watching this set of data for a while, and the more I look, the more it feels off. On the surface, it looks like funds are speculating on BTC's "shadow assets," but none of the major coins are being lifted, and BCH is weak too. This is not ordinary sector rotation. Weekend thin liquidity amplifies localized speculation but masks what's really happening: the market is repricing BTC, not spreading risk appetite. Let's look at some key signals: - BTC is stuck at 0.2% of the 30-day range, down only 3.6% this month, RSI 42. This is not a crash; it's pinned at the bottom accumulating, the downtrend is controlled, more like silence before a launch rather than distribution. - XRP is the weakest, 6.1% of the 30-day range, RSI 34.7 close to oversold, down 18% this month, all three moving averages pressing down. Technically the worst, but this also means bearish expectations are quite full. - BCH is in the middle, MA7 near 279, RSI 40.9, 16.7% of the 30-day range. Weak but not collapsed, what's missing is direction, not confidence. There's a second-level transmission easily overlooked here: if BTC holds above 80000, this weekend's altcoin speculation might actually be a precursor to risk appetite warming up, just in the wrong order—first speculating on shadows, then waiting for the majors to confirm. Conversely, if 80000 breaks, retail sentiment will panic first, and the weekend's thin liquidity-driven drop will be amplified, with XRP already oversold.The most noteworthy news today in the AI circle and on-chain: Switzerland approved its first spot Bitcoin ETF aimed at retail investors.
Issuer BIT Asset Management targets a November listing on the SIX exchange. This is the first time Swiss regulators have opened the door for retail investors to access a spot Bitcoin ETF.
There are two other pieces of news in the same batch that are interesting to compare.
HSBC's Hong Kong dollar stablecoin RedCoin launched on PayMe, available to 3.3 million users, usable at over 100,000 merchants, running on HSBC's own private ledger.
Bybit obtained Dubai VARA's first full spot trading license, but still needs to complete the launch process before going live.
Putting these three together, the direction is clear: traditional finance is moving onto the chain, not the chain waiting for traditional finance. HSBC uses a private ledger for its stablecoin, not a public blockchain; Switzerland's ETF approval goes through a regulated exchange, not DeFi.
The real variable this round isn't the coin price, but "who issues licenses and who builds the channels." Once these channels are established, the path for retail investors to enter will be completely different from the previous cycle.
I will be watching two things: whether Switzerland's ETF can list on schedule in November, and whether HSBC's stablecoin will expand beyond Hong Kong. $SIGN is bearish. There are 21 days left until the cliff unlocking on 11-15, with the pressure window concentrated in the 7 days before the unlock, which hasn't arrived yet. The highs on the chart have been steadily rising, so the structure is indeed intact. However, this rally is happening in a very thin market, with trading volume and contract open interest close to zero; a 5.5% amplitude can be pushed by very few orders. Such a thin support cannot withstand a concentrated supply release; in the week before the unlock, the event will outweigh the technical structure. Backtesting shows that in the 7 days before large unlocks, $SIGN underperforms the market; two sample periods show consistent direction, with about three-quarters of events closing negative. After the unlock, there is no stable direction. Therefore, watching the unlock day itself is not very meaningful; what matters is monitoring $SIGN's strength relative to the market in the final week. There were only 3 long liquidations, and almost no leverage was used, so the possibility of a drop accelerated by liquidations is very small; it is more likely a gradual weakening. Conditions to turn bullish: after entering the 7 days before the unlock, if $SIGN outperforms the market and holds above 0.011238, the bearish view is invalidated. If it first breaks below 0.010648, it indicates that supply has already been priced in early. $BTC $BTC breaks below $80,000! $436 million liquidated in 4 hours, have the bulls really been cleaned out?
Last night's plunge suggests the market situation is not that simple.
📉 BTC once fell below $80,000, with approximately $436 million liquidated across the market within 4 hours, about $404 million of which came from long positions.
More worrisome is that the US BTC spot ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days, totaling about $773 million.
My judgment: this looks more like a leverage purge, but it’s too early to confirm that the bottom has been reached.
Next, focus on three key signals:
① The $80,000 level: can the rebound sustain and hold above this?
② Open Interest (OI): if the price rebounds but OI doesn’t show a clear increase, it might just be shorts covering, not new money entering.
③ Federal Reserve decision: the rate decision on October 28 could be the catalyst for the next wave of volatility.
⚠️ The biggest risk isn’t the drop itself, but thinking leverage has been fully cleaned out, only to face a second round of liquidations.
Around $80,000, do you see a golden pit or a continuation of the downtrend?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Liquidation #FederalReserve #Cryptocurrency
For market discussion only, not investment advice.Bond yields soared to about 15.8%, and on Thursday they plunged about 10% to a new low around 53.5. The $CRWV bond market is signaling distress earlier than the stock price.
On Thursday, $CRWV closed around 55.60, dropping about 10% in a single day, with an intraday low near 53.50, hitting a 52-week low.
On Friday, it closed again at 54.24 (about -2.5%), having lost roughly 37% since October, marking the third consecutive week of declines.
External reports say the debt has piled up to about $50 billion, with the 2031 bond yield spiking to about 15.8%; Bernstein cut its target price from 74 to 51, and Morgan Stanley cut from 99 to 70.
I believe the bond market is repricing financing costs, and I don’t think the story is over just because it’s near 54.
On Monday, watch if it can hold around 53.5–54; only after it recovers to about 60–62 should we reconsider. If the daily close breaks below about 53.5, the narrative of previous lows will loosen further.
Do you think this is a temporary brake on AI infrastructure financing, or just an overreaction driven by sentiment?
$CRWV
#Today'sMarketTalkTrump has spoken:
The fastest strike on Iran could be today.
Bitcoin is again hovering around 80,000,
It already broke below once last night.
Let's look at the accounts from the past few days:
On October 22, the strike plan was exposed,
Bitcoin dropped from 84,000 straight down to 80,000,
The big fund was redeemed for $635 million in one day.
As soon as the upgrade news came out,
the coin price dropped 2% to 5% that day.
Today is the final showdown,
Old Trump is really ruthless.
If they strike: no one will catch the fall over the weekend,
Bitcoin will be the first to get hit,
Whether 80,000 holds or not depends on these two days.
If no strike: an agreement is reached, bad news settles,
Instead, it should rise as it should.
Why is 80,000 so critical?
Long-term followers of my posts know:
The big fund's cost of holding coins is between 80,000 and 81,500.
If the daily close breaks below, they all turn to losses on paper,
The next support level is at 77,600.
Historical references go both ways:
On the day the war started at the end of February,
Bitcoin's price dropped then recovered that day;
After being hit in early September,
the next day it actually rose 5%.
The panic-induced dip
may not be a pitfall, it could be the bottom.
My view:
Don't do anything today.
Why?
No one can say for sure if there will be a strike,
Buying now is guessing it will rise;
Selling now is guessing it will fall.
If you guess wrong, it's a real loss of money.
When the result comes out tonight,
Whether it falls or rises will be clear,
Then act, it's not too late at all.
#Bitcoin #BTC