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This rebound looks more like a capital turnover, with over 100 million flowing in within 2 hours, but 700 million withdrawn in 24 hours.
BTC has seen a net spot inflow of $5.77 million and a net contract inflow of $120 million in the last 2 hours, showing a sudden return of buying interest. However, extending the period to 24 hours, spot shows a net outflow of $168 million and contracts a net outflow of $554 million, totaling over $720 million outflow. Some short-term buyers are stepping in, but mid-term positions are still being reduced.
ETH shows an even more pronounced contrast. In 2 hours, contracts had a net inflow of $114 million, but in 24 hours, contracts had a net outflow of $712 million and spot a further outflow of $116 million. The short-term green data only covers a small part of the earlier capital loss; ETH remains the weakest among the major coins.
SOL spot had a net inflow of $2.28 million in 2 hours, but in 24 hours spot outflow was $6.78 million and contracts outflow was $97.97 million, indicating the rebound lacks contract capital support.
ZEC continues its independent trend, with a 24-hour spot net inflow of $10.93 million and contract net inflow of $65.14 million, and a one-week contract net inflow of $229 million. Its strength comes from localized capital concentration and does not represent a market-wide strengthening.
Overall market positions continue to decline by 1.41%, with about $526 million liquidated in 24 hours. The current inflow can only support a short-term rebound; the 24-hour capital structure of BTC and ETH has not been repaired and remains bearish.After reviewing the latest fee rates and position structure simulations, I can't help but bitterly smile when I look down at my own live account. Spot is drifting down, and contract longs are "paying to hold on," perfectly matching the current market fracture in my account.
$BTC: A typical case of "financing hope"
As the simulation said, the price is falling but the number of open long contracts is still increasing. My average BTC price is 81244, current price 80423, with a floating loss as deep as -20.20%. In this downtrend, I am basically the stubborn long who refuses to admit defeat. Now I can only keep a close eye on the liquidation bottom line at 77400. When will the longs stop paying? You'll know when my position blows up.
$BZ (Crude Oil): The macro hedge trump card
Currently around 617, the yield has soared to an extremely exaggerated +1365%. This perfectly explains why the crypto market is falling: Middle East risk aversion has drained liquidity. This 3x isolated margin hedge position is the only trump card against deep BTC losses. Its role now is not trading but buying insurance.
$BNB: On-exchange funds huddling for warmth
Currently around 749, profits are steady at +113%. Amid the chaos, funds are crazily clustering into strong assets. It is the solid defensive cushion in the account.
Summary:
Prices can deceive, but fees and structure do not. My BTC longs are still stubbornly holding, but cross-asset hedging must be done well. Abandon illusions; survival is the hard truth. Everyone, do you think the 76% longs in SOL will surrender above 100? #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC Orbit is full of short position screenshots, but OKX's data is exactly the opposite: in BTC contracts, the number of long accounts is 2.07 times that of short accounts.
Those who post screenshots are a minority; the real positions are on the other side.
And on the side with more people, every 8 hours they have to pay "funding fees" to the other side:
Since 9/22, out of 100 settlements, 84 times longs paid shorts.
At the average rate during this period, holding a 10x long position for a year would consume about 44% of the principal just in funding fees.
Check the funding rate before opening a contract: even if the direction is right, money can still be slowly eaten away by the fees.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX public API (long-short ratio as of 10/25 20:00, BTC-USDT perpetual funding rate) #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 🚨 BTC dropped over the weekend without obvious deleveraging: both bulls and bears continue to add positions, and the next wave of volatility could be even more intense!
This weekend's pullback might not be just a normal price adjustment. When liquidity is low, prices tend to fluctuate more rapidly, but it’s still uncertain whether this is just a temporary liquidity shock.
📉 On-chain data: no clear panic yet
According to this market analysis, realized losses have not increased but actually decreased, indicating no obvious panic-driven loss realization on-chain for now. However, a single indicator is insufficient to assess the overall market risk.
⚠️ What really deserves attention is contract leverage
Since October 14, BTC perpetual contract open interest has been steadily accumulating, and this round of pullback seems not to have fully digested the leverage.
When both bulls and bears add positions simultaneously, the market may be accumulating greater volatility risk under the surface. Once prices trigger concentrated liquidations, rapid surges or sharp drops may occur.
🔎 Next, watch two directions:
* Short squeeze upward: BTC rebounds, forcing shorts to liquidate, further pushing prices higher.
* Long liquidation downward: BTC continues to weaken, longs liquidate en masse, intensifying downward pressure.
🛡️ Practical risk tips:
* Reduce leverage: Don’t recklessly increase position size just because a big move is expected.
* Set stop-losses in advance: Define invalidation price before entry to avoid making stop-loss decisions after losses widen.
* Control single trade risk: Adjust position size according to stop-loss distance; don’t put too much capital on a single direction. A new round of strikes has not been confirmed yet, but Middle Eastern stock markets have already fallen first.
On Sunday, the Egyptian stock market plunged about 5% intraday, and the Saudi stock market also dropped sharply.
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi forces has escalated; Saudi Arabia claims to have intercepted drones and missiles; Trump has not ruled out new actions against Iran. Meanwhile, the Iranian military claims to have shot down a US military drone, and the Iranian foreign minister warned: the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be the same as before.
These reports do not necessarily mean the war will immediately expand, but the market has already started pricing in the risk of escalation.
What the market fears most is not a strike that has already happened, but the uncertainty about what will happen next.
On Monday, watch the oil prices first.
If oil prices jump again, the impact will not only be on energy stocks but also on inflation, interest rate expectations, and the valuation of global risk assets.
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The brief rebound after leverage liquidation does not mean the market dares to boldly go long. In fact, this time it is most likely just a concentrated leverage cleanup, which is completely different from a sustained price crash.
In 24 hours, 810 million was liquidated, 200,000 people were liquidated, the vast majority were long positions, and the total open interest shrank rapidly. It is clear that the main force's goal is not to keep pushing prices down, but to first wash out the high-leverage longs in the market, then stabilize the downtrend. This is a one-time release of short-term risk.
But don't simply take this as the end of the shakeout and that the market is about to take off; the key is whether funds dare to re-enter the market and take risks.
The news suppressing the market now are all short-term events that will eventually materialize; meanwhile, large holders and retail investors are quietly accumulating BTC, and many new addresses are slowly hoarding coins, but they do not intend to pump the market immediately, instead laying out their positions gradually.
However, the market itself is still weak. There are several resistance lines above BTC, making rebounds difficult. The low point this round is 79,000; ETH is even weaker, with many obstacles above for a rebound. On the futures side, shorts are reducing positions, and some are trying to go long, but confidence is insufficient. The 2250 level is the cost line for many longs, making it hard to break through in one go.
ZEC is relatively stronger, with a slight rebound above the short-term moving average. This quiet repair in small coins best reflects the true intentions of current funds.
Right now, it is just a brief pause after leverage has been cleaned out, not a return of market risk appetite.
Leverage has been washed out, but the risk has not disappeared. The real bottom depends on continuous spot fund inflows, not just short-term sentiment speculation in futures.🚨 Spot market is falling, but contract longs are still holding strong: SOL funding rate turns negative, yet 76.4% of accounts remain long!
BTC, SOL, and XRP show different market signals, with divergence between price trends and position structures.
₿ BTC｜Down 3.7%, open interest rises to $7.72 billion
According to the data provided, the perpetual contract funding rate remains positive, and the open interest has increased to $7.72 billion. Price decline alongside rising open interest indicates new positions are still entering, but it’s unclear whether these funds are bottom-fishing or continuing to short.
◎ SOL｜Funding rate turns negative, long-short structure diverges
8-hour average funding rate dropped to -0.021%. In the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled about $17.3 million, while short liquidations were about $1 million.
Meanwhile, 76.4% of accounts hold long positions, but longs only account for 48.1% of active trades. There is a clear discrepancy between account position directions and active trading structure, warranting close monitoring.
♦️ XRP｜Valuation is low, supply pressure persists
365-day MVRV dropped to 0.92, indicating the average holding value of related holders may be about 8% below cost. Exchange reserves still hold 11.81 billion XRP, valued at approximately $15.7 billion based on the provided data.
Low valuation does not mean the price has bottomed, and reserve size does not imply these tokens will be sold immediately.
🔎 Next, watch these three signals:
* BTC: Whether open interest and positive funding rate persist during price declines $ARB
Unlike STRK, can assets in the same sector still be allocated evenly?
In this morning's spot snapshot, ARB's 24-hour price change was +0.65%, ranging from 0.16354 to 0.17296 USDT.
ARB is positive while STRK declined, indicating that shared tags cannot explain token pricing. Differences in supply, liquidity, and actual stake can cause long-term divergence among technically related assets.
If the relative advantage over ETH and peers continues, independent recovery is more credible; if it only leads for a short period, it is unwise to upgrade the difference to a full sector recovery. Repeated tugging near the key level: Is BTC consolidating, or are the rebound highs shifting lower?
I tend to view the current situation as a tug-of-war within a range, not yet a consolidation. Although BTC has returned above $80,000, the current price is still caught between the rolling 24-hour high and low; whether the rebound has restored the structure depends on if it can reclaim the upper boundary of the range, not just a few hundred points of bounce signaling strength.
Next, I’m watching two levels: around 81,070 is the current 24-hour high, and 79,220 is the low. If the rebound meets resistance again near the upper boundary and then falls back to effectively break below 79,220, I will consider the "lowering rebound highs and breached lows" as confirmation of weakness.
Conversely, if the price breaks above 81,070 with volume and holds on the pullback, and subsequent lows rise, it looks more like a short-term consolidation. The counterpoint is that the lows haven’t been breached yet and the drop isn’t significant, so we can’t conclude bears have regained control just based on a pullback; however, as long as the upper boundary isn’t reclaimed, the buyers haven’t taken the initiative.
If it’s just grinding back and forth below the upper boundary without volume expansion, both sides could be swept by false moves. I won’t define the trend based on a momentary spike; the focus is on effective closes and pullback results. My invalidation conditions are clear: if it holds above 81,070 and the pullback doesn’t break it, the bearish view is withdrawn; if it breaks below 79,220 and fails to rebound, the consolidation theory is void. Don’t chase direction in the middle of the range; wait for boundary closes to confirm before following.
$BTC #OKXOrbitTopicIsHere #OrbitDaily The evening rebound remains weak, with $BTC and $ETH approaching lows, and bears closely watching whether key support will be broken! No need to rush to take profits or stop losses to protect capital!
Tonight, I still have a bearish outlook on BTC and ETH. BTC is currently at $80,320, down -0.44% from the opening price of $80,671.25 24 hours ago; ETH is at $2,326.50, down -1.83% from the opening price of $2,369.86. The intraday low for BTC was $79,220, and for ETH $2,282, with prices unable to break out of the low consolidation.
The previous sharp rise and fall, I believe, is not due to a single bearish factor: BTC fell back from the 7-day high of $84,898, and ETH from $2,526. The profit-taking after the rally combined with leverage squeeze is the main cause. Public market information shows that on October 24, there was about $192 million in liquidations within a single hour, with longs accounting for about $184 million. The rapid deleveraging amplified the decline; stablecoin regulatory progress and institutional on-chain deployments are medium-term factors, but are currently insufficient to reverse short-term risk appetite.
Technically, BTC's MACD has a death cross, RSI(6) is 32.21, below MA7 $81,839 and MA25 $82,941, with a large net outflow of 12.49%; ETH's MACD also has a death cross, RSI(6) is only 24.05, although oversold, it remains below MA7 $2,399 and MA25 $2,505, and the super trend also remains downward. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ and constructive guidance; Tesla beat numbers but the stock was punished (high expectations + auto + heavy AI/robot spend). The real test arrives this week with Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, Potentially, investors will focus less on the pure beats and more on AI/cloud demand, capex plans, and whether the massive spending is starting to show clearer returns.What is unlocking? The token lock-up period for the project team, early investors, and others ends, granting circulation eligibility. But "can sell" ≠ "will sell." Why might it cause pressure? 1. Increased circulating supply 2. Different holders have different selling motivations (early investors cashing out vs. team holding locked tokens) 3. The market may trade on expectations in advance or experience volatility beyond expectations Four key points to watch: • The amount unlocked and its proportion of the current circulating supply (not total supply) • Who the unlock recipients are and their historical behavior • Market absorption capacity (liquidity, trading depth) • Whether actual on-chain transfers go into exchanges Core judgment principle: Distinguish three concepts — gaining circulation eligibility ≠ transferring to exchanges ≠ actual selling. Unlocking is a supply clue, not a buy/sell signal. It must be evaluated in combination with project progress, demand growth, and overall market conditions. In short, token unlocking is not a trigger for a crash; the proportion of unlocked tokens to circulating supply + holder motivation + market liquidity together provide analytical value. $BTC Conclusion first: $CAP rose 30% in 24 hours today, but on OKX its order book is so thin that $5,000 can wipe out the buy orders.
OKX only has CAP-USDT-SWAP, no CAP-USDT spot (1 contract = 100 CAP, 10x leverage). I took three snapshots in a row: about $5,000 in buy orders at 20 levels, about $4,500 in sell orders, and about $70,000 fully loaded at 100 levels; meanwhile, 24-hour perpetual trading volume is 624 million CAP ≈ $60.5 million, open interest only $4.53 million, 13x turnover.
The problem is the coin is rising, but protocol data is shrinking: Cap protocol TVL on DefiLlama is $201.9 million, down 10.4% in 7 days, cUSD stablecoin market cap only $75 million. CoinGecko market cap is $150 million, FDV $963 million (6.4x dilution), circulating supply 15.6%. Funding rate has been stuck at the 0.005% floor, indicating no short squeeze; buy orders are on BSC and Bybit spot (BSC 24h $12 million, Bybit spot $8 million).
Rising doesn’t mean it can be sold off. How large of an order would you place in such an order book?$ETH is drained by ETFs, $ZEC and others upgrade to rescue.
Ethereum: In October, ETF net outflow reached $1.08 billion, the highest single-month amount this year. Price around 2,390, support at 2,355, resistance at 2,445/2,500. The Hoodi testnet upgrade of Glamsterdam has been delayed due to security controversies around EIP-8037/8038, losing a short-term catalyst. ETF outflows continue, rebounds are opportunities to reduce positions.
ZEC: After a 200% surge in September, it retraced over 30%, now around 1,200. Grayscale ZEC ETF saw an inflow of $41.1 million last week, indicating a shift in capital direction. NU7 upgrade confirmed: block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, but the Sprout pool will be closed. 1,200 is a key battleground; daily close above 1,223 signals a reversal; breaking below 1,000 targets 750–800.
In short: For ETH, watch if 2,355 support holds; for ZEC, watch if 1,200 can be maintained. Avoid heavy positions before NU7 launch; event-driven "buy the rumor, sell the fact" risks are high.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ just above 79,000 with a long lower wick, then was pulled back up. Looking at the order book data, nearly $430 million worth of long positions were liquidated that day.
Immediately in the comments, someone posted a screenshot shouting "fake drop, the bottom is here." What I see is something else: this is a shakeout of longs, not a creation of demand. Leveraged long positions were cleared out all at once, making the market lighter, but the rebound barely had any volume to support it.👀 Top-level big short whale position exposed, after reading it you’ll immediately understand the big picture!
This whale has a very impressive historical track record, with total profits already reaching 180 million USD, and 25.22 million USD earned in just 24 hours. However, currently all three short positions are in floating losses: BTC floating loss of 12.06 million, ETH floating loss of 4.76 million, SOL floating loss of 5.95 million, totaling a floating loss of 22.78 million.
📊 Position details
✅ $BTC short 2,637 coins, valued at 210 million, 5x leverage, average entry price 76,327
✅ $ETH short 106,400 coins, valued at 250 million, 5x leverage, average entry price 2,322
✅ $SOL short 720,000 coins, valued at 73.87 million, 7x leverage, average entry price 94.3
Total nominal position sums to 530 million USD, definitely a top-tier short.
An interesting point is that his liquidation price is very far away:
Another key point is that this position continuously earns funding fees, totaling 11 million (BTC 3.05 million + ETH 4.18 million + SOL 3.79 million). Even with a current floating loss of 22 million, relying on funding fees, the floating loss can be recovered in about two weeks.
💡 My view: This is a large capital long-term trend bet, completely different logic from our short-term trading. They have ample safety cushions plus funding fees as a backstop. Ordinary people blindly following short positions can easily not withstand the intermediate volatility. Whether the big player’s plan can be realized mainly depends on the FOMC results.$XAU In late October, as gold dipped to the critical threshold of 0.7% relative to the U.S. Treasury market value, multiple Chinese banks cut fees for accumulated gold savings products to zero. This marks a solid start as the market moves forward. Young people are adopting gold as a new savings plan.wick, then was pulled back up. Looking at the order book data, nearly $430 million worth of long positions were liquidated that day.
Immediately in the comments, someone posted a screenshot shouting "fake drop, the bottom is here." What I see is something else: this is a shakeout of longs, not a creation of demand. Leveraged long positions were cleared out all at once, making the market lighter, but the rebound barely had any volume to support it. ETF buy orders have not yet stabilized; don't mistake a slowdown in outflows for a return of funds. According to Coinglass measured in BTC, the net inflow on October 21 was about 6,320 coins, a net outflow of about 7,560 coins on the 22nd; on the 23rd, IBIT still had a net outflow of about 1,360 coins, and some funds had not yet reported that day.
The official net asset value of IBIT also fell by 0.10% on the 23rd. This is not evidence of a collective institutional sell-off, but it does not support the idea that buying has stabilized; incomplete data cannot be taken as a final conclusion.
I am not yet betting on an ETF-driven rebound. If in the following consecutive trading days net inflows occur, and both IBIT and FBTC resume subscriptions, then I will retract this cautious judgment.
#BTC spot ETF funds fluctuate repeatedly, can market buying stabilize? #ETF #BTC $BTC At the first prick, many people's immediate reaction is "It's over, it's going to crash." But is it really a valuation kill? That prick last night might just be deleveraging — these two things hurt in completely different ways. In 24 hours, $815 million was liquidated, 201,000 people exited, with long positions accounting for 92.6%, and open interest shrank to 140.1 billion. I stared at these numbers for a while: if the goal was to smash the price, open interest shouldn't have deflated so quickly; instead, leverage was squeezed out first, and the price didn't continue to collapse. Short-term pain versus long-term pain, the market chose the former this time. But I don't want to stop at the comfortable conclusion of "a shakeout." What really matters is whether risk appetite has returned. There are two clues supporting a bullish bias. One is that the pressures overhead are mostly short-term, like the Iran situation and midterm elections, which will eventually settle. The other is that whales are quietly accumulating: this month, 40 new wallets withdrew $770 million in BTC, and small addresses holding less than 10,000 coins increased by about 90,000 in a month. These moves don't mean an immediate rally but indicate someone is trading time for space. The technicals haven't turned strong yet. BTC's RSI is 45.9, MA7 at 81,883, MA20 at 82,366, MA30 at 83,047, all three moving averages pressing from above, with only just over 20% left in the 30-day range, and a 24-hour low of 79,220. ETH is weaker, RSI 40.0, low at 2,282.85, with MA7 and MA20 overhead. But the contract side is interesting: shorts dropped from 14,000 to 3,000 contracts, longs increased from less than 100 million to$BTC: The $80,000 Defense Battle, Don't Bet on Direction Before FOMC
Core Conflict: ETF funds are passively supporting near $80,000, but inflation rebound (3.7%) + 80% probability of a rate hike in December suppress the rebound. The market is caught in the middle, volatility has dropped to a three-year low — this is not stability, it's pressure.
Key Price Levels:
· $80,000–$82,000: ETF holding cost line (around 81,300) + 50-day moving average; daily close below $80,000 = collective institutional unrealized losses, downside target $73,000–$75,000
· $85,000–$87,000: dense selling pressure zone; only by holding above $87,000 can upward space be considered open
Buyers Have Changed: In the first half of the year, it relied on corporate treasuries; now it almost entirely depends on ETFs (since August, ETF inflows $6.4 billion vs. corporate $1.5 billion). The benefit is price support; the downside is ETF sentiment is emotional — on October 23, a single-day outflow of $635 million corresponded to a pullback. Watch IBIT daily flows, which are more sensitive than most technical indicators.
Turning Point Window: October 28 FOMC. Hawkish → break below $80,000 targets $75,000; dovish + earnings cooperation → chance to test $87,000. Heavy bets on direction before the meeting are not advisable.
One-Sentence Strategy: $80,000–$82,000 is a decision zone, not an entry zone; wait for a clear reaction to $80,000 or $87,000 before acting. Reduce positions if closing below 79,600–80,000; only look bullish again after holding above $87,000
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ This week is all about the heavy hitters, don’t get carried away and don’t be soft-handed
Brothers, the market theme this week can be summed up in one word: squeeze. The Fed, GDP, and PCE all pile up on Thursday, and tech giants’ earnings reports join the party. If you have positions, review your risk controls first.
Starting with macro. The Fed’s rate decision comes early Thursday morning, and the market is basically betting on no change, with the rate ceiling staying around 4%.
But the press conference with Powell is the real knife—once he speaks, US Treasury yields and the dollar will jump. Then on Thursday night, GDP and core PCE data drop together, with GDP expected to hit 3.2% and core PCE annualized at 2.4%. If these numbers come in strong again, the rate cut narrative will be pushed back, and growth stocks will face direct pressure from higher discount rates.
On earnings, Google and Microsoft report early Thursday morning, Amazon early Friday morning—all are tests of AI capital expenditure and cloud growth.
I’m watching whether cloud revenue can support the massive capex; if not, valuations will have to be cut. Storage chains like SK Hynix and Samsung are also joining the fray, with HBM demand being a hard indicator.$CNPY 5.56 million trading volume is called "leading the ecosystem," then the pancake stall downstairs from my house is leading a culinary revolution. The canopy (Canopy) blocks the sky and sun, but what it really blocks is your eyes from seeing the sell-off candlestick. An 18% rise is celebrated, but the market maker is already ready with the parachute.Dogecoin's market cap ranking has dropped to 12th place, and this change is more worth noting than the price correction. Price reflects daily capital inflows and outflows, while ranking is the result of long-term capital voting. Once the latter shifts, it indicates a change in the market's pricing standards.
The voting rules are actually clear. In this market cycle, capital flows in three directions: projects with cash flow, those with technological upgrades, and those with institutional entry. Dogecoin doesn't belong to any of these three—it survives on community and hype, with the largest part of its valuation being sentiment premium. When the market is hot, this premium is amplified; when the market cools down, it is the first to be compressed.
The drop in ranking doesn't mean Dogecoin is failing; it means that a purely community-driven pricing model is increasingly disadvantaged in an institutionalized market. This issue can't be solved by just hype or calls; it can only be addressed through the ecosystem—by having real on-chain activity and real use cases for the coin, so the valuation gains new support points.
Falling from 8th to 12th tests the transformation. Whether Dogecoin can return to the top ten next time depends on luck or fundamentals, and that depends on whether the ecosystem can really take off."How's this trade?" — It's getting worse. Down 30.85 points in 16 hours, tolerance narrowed from 2.31% to 1.88%. Floating profit +138.22% (numbers consistent).
"Why is it more urgent than other trades?" — Because its risk is "event-driven," not "volatility-driven." Other trades (ETH, DOGE) keep moving, you can watch and manage; $SNDK today is Sunday, US markets are closed, risk is concentrated in the gap at Monday 21:30 open — it happens instantly, no reaction window.
"How much time is left?" — It's now Sunday 20:30, market opens Monday 21:30, about 25 hours. Sounds long, but you need to actively handle it during Monday daytime — not at night. Waiting until Monday night is too late.**
"What does a flat line mean?" — It means the market is waiting too. The spot anchor is broken, the crypto market can't price itself, only watch. This also reminds you: this 1240.9 is not a US stock quote.
"What to do?" — Close it tonight or during the day tomorrow. 138% is already good enough; don't gamble your 1.88% tolerance on a moment you have no reaction window for. Deadline 1264.2. $BTC $ETH #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $ETH Arthur Hayes has sold off again, just caught on-chain selling $22.28 million, with 6,400 ETH alone.
Don't rush to copy him yet. Reviewing the 12 times he was caught selling on-chain over the past two years: within 30 days after selling, 6 times the price rose, 5 times it fell, and once it stayed flat; after 90 days, the ups and downs were basically a 50/50 split.
Sometimes he just sells at the floor price, so there's really no need to scare yourself every time he makes a move.$ZEC $ZEC ZEC this time has completely exposed the inherent flaws of privacy coins.
The official admits a circuit defect, theoretically allowing 4.97 million tokens in the shielded pool to be minted out of thin air. The most extreme part is that because of the built-in privacy barrier, even the official team cannot verify whether someone has quietly been printing money.
Privacy was supposed to be a moat, but now it has directly become an unauditable black box. Once the underlying consensus is drained, you might think you are bottom-fishing a scarce asset, but in reality, you could just be footing the bill for an unlimited money printer. Without fixing this vulnerability, any market rebound is a bull trap.
#ZEC
$ZEC Last night $ETH dropped to a low of $2282! After $BTC broke 80,000, it managed to pull back, so why is $ETH the one getting hit the hardest again? I said before that $ETH is weaker than $BTC, and now it’s clear that it wasn’t just one piece of news that suddenly crushed it, but the capital structure had already been weak! $BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $300 million, while $ETH had a net outflow of about $220 million. Everyone is shouting to buy the dip, but why is $ETH being completely bypassed? Last night was even more intense: a long position of 115,000 $ETH was just over twenty dollars away from liquidation at the $2282 price. An overnight margin of 9.21 million USDC was added to push the liquidation price down to $2181. Even the whales had to cough up money overnight to survive. Arthur Hayes also chose to exit directional positions. Liquidity pressure hasn’t eased at all—who’s going to catch this rebound? My judgment remains a sideways to bearish bias! With the Federal Reserve meeting approaching, a bounce around 2340 isn’t a reversal. If it can’t hold between 2350 and 2375, I’d rather wait for a rebound to short. If 2280 breaks again, $ETH will probably get hit again!Night Report: The Tribute Cargo Pledged at 81000, ETH's Burden Shakes First
Greetings, heroes. In the past two hours, Bitcoin has been like the fierce Yang Zhi guarding the tribute cargo—stuck at 81000 without budging. On the surface, it looks tough, but the 81000 level has shifted from a "fortress protecting the cargo" to a "threshold blocking the way." Meanwhile, ETH is the soft cargo in the tribute that was targeted first: currently fluctuating around 2300, today's low of 2282 is only about a hundred dollars above a certain whale's liquidation price of 2181. This whale holds $397 million in long positions, with ETH accounting for $272 million and 115,473 coins. Just past midnight, they gritted their teeth and added 9.21 million USDC in margin, dragging the liquidation line from 2256 down to 2181. In other words, the tribute cargo hasn't even left Huangnigang yet, but those who pledged it are already paying out of pocket to stay alive.$ETH
Looking at options, the top two put option trades are all on ETH, with about 9,000 contracts at the 2200 strike price leading the pack. The protection cost is 7.4 volatility points higher than calls—big players are putting real money on the line saying: ETH is more fragile than BTC. Although BTC also lost 81000 and is fully bearish on the hourly chart, the next target is 75000. At least it can still hover above 80,000, unlike ETH which is being beaten down by the gang led by Chao Gai. $BTC
Tonight, the bears are not attacking the hard asset BTC, but the tribute cargo of ETH. Heroes, don't rush to catch the flying knives; first, watch if the 2181 Huangnigang level can hold. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Just finished eating, opened the funding panel a little after 8, and I gasped sharply! Brothers, don’t be fooled by this sideways movement now; beneath the short-term rebound lies shocking evidence of large funds fleeing.
Take a look at $BTC on the far right: a net outflow of 7.523 billion over 30 days. In the recent days, 878 million outflow in 3 days, 1.028 billion in 7 days. Although there are a few tens of millions in green bars in the last half hour and hour (retail investors bottom-fishing), compared to the long-term red bars, it’s like a splash. Large funds have been offloading during the rebound; this is definitely not a bottom signal.
Look at $ETH, even worse! 8.051 billion outflow in 30 days, 3.544 billion in 15 days. The outflow speed of this second coin is even more extreme than the big coin, practically an ATM. The short-term green bars can’t support the market; every rebound is very likely a trap set by the main players to lure buyers.
Finally, $SOL shows a 2.035 billion outflow in 30 days. Although smaller in scale than the two big brothers, the trend is the same. In 24 hours, 12.53 million fled, indicating a very consistent attitude of funds toward the altcoin leader: resolute withdrawal.
Summary: The main players are making a big retreat. Long-term funds have been net outflowing for a continuous month. Without incremental funds, what can drive the market up? At this position, any rebound is an opportunity for retail investors to escape, definitely not a chance to heavily bottom-fish.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Conclusion first: HSBC's Hong Kong dollar stablecoin RedCoin has been launched for three days, with a circulation of only HKD 80.8 million (about USD 10.4 million), which is 17,000 times less than USDT's USD 182.4 billion. Don't rush to switch now, but there is something worth watching.
On October 23, HSBC launched RedCoin on PayMe, available to 3.3 million users and accepted by 100,000 merchants, running on HSBC's own ledger. Three pitfalls: it is not a bank deposit, so it is not covered by the Hong Kong Deposit Protection Scheme; balances cannot be transferred between PayMe and the bank app; the first independent reserve attestation will only be available after Q4 2026.
The bank is aiming for something else: within the year, RedCoin will be integrated into HK Mobile Banking, allowing users to buy tokenized shares of its Hong Kong dollar money market fund with a minimum of HKD 100. In September, 21 institutions (including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America) announced a joint push for a US dollar stablecoin, targeting the first half of 2027.
In the global stablecoin pool of USD 305.5 billion, USDT accounts for USD 182.4 billion, USDC for USD 71.7 billion. Banks are pushing from the sidelines into the center.
For the USDT you hold, the real question is where the yield comes from—interest from exchanges or tokenized money market funds issued by banks?
If the stablecoin issued by banks has zero fees, would you switch over? $USDC#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report on October 28 is very likely to exceed expectations, but I advise you not to get carried away. The entire market is currently hyping AI demand through the roof, operating profits are heading for record highs, and expectations have long been maxed out. Good earnings are just normal performance; bad earnings would be a direct bombshell. This risk-reward trade-off is simply not worth it.
The FOMC meeting is just around the corner, and the high-interest environment is tightly suppressing things. Tech stocks are currently walking a tightrope; as long as the Federal Reserve doesn't ease, off-exchange funds simply won't rush into high-valuation assets. No matter how impressive Hynix's performance is, it can't withstand the liquidity drain of the entire macro market. Don't get hot-headed chasing profits just because they hit new highs; capital markets always buy on expectations and sell on facts, and positive news often triggers sell-offs.
The core HBM4 industry logic is indeed solid, with unit prices up more than 50%, mass production started in September, and shipments directly in Q4. But precisely because the logic is so solid, Wall Street sell-side institutions have already factored next year's profit elasticity into their models. Moreover, Samsung and Micron's HBM4 certification progress is accelerating; if the competitive landscape worsens, Hynix's market share expectations could be re-evaluated at any time. This is not the start of growth; this is the full realization of positive news.
Traditional memory shipments and prices have improved somewhat, but in the overall picture, it's just icing on the cake. The sector's valuation now relies entirely on HBM, with very low tolerance for error. As soon as HBM4 shipment pace wavers even slightly, or bargaining power falls short of expectations, funds will exit faster than anyone else.The two short orders in the afternoon were fully executed: 200.08 settled at 18:00, 197.5 was also touched. Current price 197.32, 24h low 197.28, just four cents off.
Signal at 19:00: a single order of 1515 contracts, -1.88%, cut from 198.7 down to 197.34. During the day, fourteen orders ranged between 33~362 contracts, the largest 362; this one is four times that — the last real money trade before the 21:30 open landed here, downward.
From 20:00 until now, 672 contracts traded, less than half, yet the price hasn't rebounded, only hovering around 197.3. Selling pressure is weakening, not disappearing.
No chasing shorts: four cents from the new low, no place to set stop loss, odds less than 2.
If the 1H candle closes below 197.28 with volume ≥800, short on the rebound at 197.9~198.2, stop loss at 199.0, target 195.3 (another leg down of 3.5 points), odds 2.8.
If the 1H candle closes above 198.79 with volume ≥600, long on the pullback at 198.2~198.5, stop loss at 197.4, target 200.85, odds 2.6.
Avoid 197.28~198.79, wait for the 21:30 price fix.
$MRNA
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 overnight before clawing back, yet the bounce has done little to settle the deeper question facing this market: whether price weakness is a buying window or a warning that the bid beneath it has quietly thinned. The reluctance to commit size here is telling. Daily accumulation continues, but the willingness to wait for a clearer setup suggests conviction is being rationed, not abandoned. The most instructive signal sits in ether flows. Across five consecutivAfter the short squeeze subsided, IRYS fell back from 0.32 to 0.03
$IRYS hit 0.32 on OKX in the early hours of October 24 Beijing time,
currently around 0.0336 (retrieved at 20:06 on October 25), a retracement of about 89% from the high.
What drove the rise?
Odaily reported: during the surge, about $68.51 million liquidated, including about $59.13 million in shorts.
Short sellers forced to buy back pushed out this spike.
The drop on October 25 was different:
Base Camp statistics show OKX open interest dropped from $19.8 million to about $4.5 million, with only about $4.7 million liquidated in 24 hours.
Upbit trading volume shrank from about $617 million on October 23 to about $112 million today.
This phase is holders selling, not another round of liquidations.
Additionally, about 77.6 million small unlocks occurred on October 25 (about 0.8% of supply),
and funding rates turned negative again.
I think this phase is profit-taking after the fuel burned out, not a bottom-fishing window.
My approach: do not catch a falling knife.
Only if volume recovers to 0.05192 (October 25 high) and holds steady can it be considered a stop in the decline; then observe further.
Before that, 0.02136 (closing price before the squeeze on October 22) is a more realistic reference.
Do you think this is a return to the starting point or a prelude to a second squeeze?
$IRYS
#Storj Labs申请Chapter 11破产重组，STORJ暴跌 #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Previously, many people said that the mass production of HBM4 was good news that had already been fully priced in, but the result is that SK Hynix just delivered a small quantity in Q2, with quarterly profits exceeding 60 trillion won and a profit margin of 76%. How can it be said that the good news has been fully priced in? Clearly, the profit cycle is only just beginning. Currently, HBM4 capacity is officially increasing in Q3, contract prices for regular DRAM are still rising, and the business performance of both sides is improving. 24-hour spot fund data released! Over 300 million U withdrawn across the board, BTC leads the sell-off, while ZEC is being bought against the trend, short-term funds have quietly entered the market⭕️
📊24-hour spot fund statistics:
✅ BTC: 24-hour net outflow of 156 million U
12-hour net outflow of 33.2952 million U | 6-hour net outflow of 7.2313 million U
✅ ETH: 24-hour net outflow of 111 million U
12-hour net inflow of 30,100 U | 6-hour net inflow of 975,800 U
✅ SOL: 24-hour net outflow of 6.6155 million U
12-hour net inflow of 3.247 million U | 6-hour net inflow of 4.2598 million U
✅ ZEC: 24-hour net inflow of 12.029 million U
12-hour net inflow of 3.7329 million U | 6-hour net inflow of 4.0934 million U
Core direction:
At the daily level, the pattern is still a full-scale outflow, with BTC and ETH leading the sell-off, mainstream coins collectively sold off, and the entire market seeing a net outflow of over 300 million U in 24 hours, indicating mid-term selling pressure has been fairly released.
However, a clear short-term reversal signal has appeared: ETH turned positive first at the 6-hour level, BNB and SOL also turned positive simultaneously, ZEC has continuously seen net inflows across all time periods, and USDC has been continuously flowing back in the 6/8/12-hour windows, indicating funds are already accumulating in batches at low levels, a typical rhythm of selling while absorbing.
Just a personal view, trading is ultimately self-reliant
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Space Exploration Technologies Corporation's $40 billion financing plan has been blocked, risk asset appetite is cooling, and gold as a safe-haven anchor has not seen significant buying. My judgment is weak oscillation, not suitable for bottom-fishing. The four-hour and one-hour moving averages are both trending downward. The current price is 3995.5, falling more than 5 percentage points from the four-hour high, but only 0.13 percentage points above the one-hour low. The near-floor operation indicates weak bullish support; the turnover is 21.674 million, funding rate is zero, open interest is 69,000, sentiment is cautious; the order book buy-sell ratio is 1.2, although buyers slightly dominate, the top five levels of sell pressure are dense, making rebounds prone to failure. Risk control priority: price rebound to 3998.7 can be lightly shorted, stop loss at 4005.3, target 3962.5; if it pulls back to 3958.3 and shows a stop-fall signal, consider a short-term long position, stop loss at 3947.8. Single position should not exceed 5% of total funds, exit immediately if stop loss triggers, no averaging down.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$XAU#SpaceX400亿美元AI融资计划受阻
#SpaceX400亿美元AI融资计划受阻
$XAU $ETH price at 2337, all short-term moving averages pressing down from above, daily chart broke the ascending channel, short-term structure is bearish. 2320-2360 is the current battleground between bulls and bears—holding this range could trigger a rebound, but the rebound to 2400-2420 will likely be suppressed again; if the daily closes below 2320, the next targets are 2220 or even 1920. RSI near 35 is close to oversold but not quite there, MACD is bearish but histogram is returning to zero, indicating a "pause in the downtrend, not a reversal." Trading strategy: light long position at 2350 with stop loss at 2320; short if it breaks below 2320; avoid heavy positions and chasing highs.
$OKB lags the broader market slightly, 107 is near the lower boundary of the consolidation range, 100-107 is a low-buy ambush zone, but don’t expect an immediate rally. The real main bullish signal is a volume-backed hold above 122-123; chasing before that is just giving away money. Long-term burn supports the bottom and the base is solid, but currently no exclusive positive catalysts, and platform coin rotation hasn’t reached it yet. Trading strategy: accumulate low between 100-107 in batches, position not exceeding 15%; chase only after volume breaks 123; hold back before that.
Both ETH and OKB are battling near key support levels; with direction unclear, control total position size, keep cash on hand, and wait for daily close confirmation of support holding or breaking before making right-side decisions.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Google hasn't released its report card yet, but its stock price has already fallen for a week.
Here's what we see: Last week Alphabet dropped over 5%, semiconductors fell more than 15% in October, and tech stocks overall are taking a hit.
Meta's stock dropped over 9% a week after its earnings report, and the market is starting to doubt whether AI spending can pay off.
This Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern Time, the FOMC will release its decision first, followed by earnings reports from Google and Microsoft after the market closes, which is early Thursday morning Beijing time.
My view: Panic has already been partially priced in, but it's not yet time to buy the dip.
What really matters are the capital expenditure guidance and cloud business growth, not whether EPS beats or misses.
With the rate decision and earnings on the same night, volatility will be amplified; the default approach is to observe, not chase.
Invalidation conditions: Cloud growth accelerates, capital expenditure does not increase significantly again, and the stock price recovers last week's losses before considering a rebound.
If spending ramps up again and cash flow weakens, Meta's scenario might repeat.
Do you think Google this time is "all bad news priced in," or "Meta part two"?
$GOOGL
#USStocks #GoogleEarnings #FOMCThe money that coin-hoarding companies use to buy Bitcoin is increasingly "borrowed"💡
According to Investing.com on October 25, Fidelity Digital Assets statistics show that since 2025, listed companies have raised about 136,000 $BTC by issuing perpetual preferred shares to finance purchases.
But this path has a cost:
🔸 Preferred shares require regular dividend payments, so part of the money must be used to pay "interest"
🔸 Strategy recently spent $193 million to repurchase preferred shares, while only buying 267 $BTC in the same period
🔸 The CEO of Xapo Bank also mentioned that wealthy coin holders prefer to mortgage and borrow money or seek yields rather than sell coins
My view: Previously, when looking at coin-hoarding companies, we only looked at how many coins they bought; now we also have to see how much dividend they have to pay each year and whether financing is going smoothly. If the coin price weakens, financing becomes difficult, and the "buy, buy, buy" pace may slow down.
Do you think this financing-based coin-hoarding model can sustain itself indefinitely?
Personal opinion, not investment advice #TeslaQ3MarginRecovery Valuation of AL tokens: Focus on subsidies or real capture?
AI sector valuations are generally forward-looking. Distinguishing between "inflation subsidies" and "real external revenue" is key to assessing the intrinsic value of market capitalization.
$TAO is a typical subsidy-driven case. The leading subnet receives about $52 million in annual rewards, but external revenue is only about $1.3 million to $2.4 million. The subsidy-to-revenue ratio is as high as 22:1 to 40:1, meaning for every $1 paid by users, the network relies on inflationary issuance of tens of dollars to maintain operations.
$GRASS has strong business performance, with real revenue of about $17 million in the first half of the year. However, tracing the cash flow reveals that profits mainly remain within its subsidiaries. The token currently lacks a direct mandatory buyback or dividend mechanism, resulting in a value capture gap.
$VVV operates in the opposite direction. Venice uses API revenue directly for token burn, with a forced buy-and-burn of $5 for every $100 spent. It has cumulatively returned about $905,000, all funds coming from external fiat payments rather than inflation issuance.
Summary:
TAO loses due to excessive subsidy scale; GRASS lacks token empowerment linkage; VVV wins by connecting external revenue with token burn. When evaluating AI tokens, real revenue after excluding subsidies and its binding depth with the token better reflect the value baseline than total TVL. The largest volume today is not the surge up, but the plunge down. At 11:00, the surge to 1252.3 used only 5,137 contracts; at 14:00, a single candle with 6,202 contracts cut 1246.7 down to 1237.2, closing at the lowest point — sellers paid 20% more in the same hour. 1246.7 is supply piled up in real money.
After the plunge, it didn’t continue for six hours: at 17:00, dipped to 1230.6 with volume 5,311, closed at 1238.8; at 19:00, 4,512 contracts closed at 1242.5, standing back above MA20 at 1239.4. Current price 1243.0 is stuck in the middle.
No long positions accepted: from 1243 to 1252.3 is only a 9-point space, stop loss placed below MA20 with odds less than 1.5.
If 1H touches 1245~1246.7 then closes bearish with volume (volume≥5,000 contracts), short with stop loss at 1249.5, target 1230.6, odds starting at 3.2.
If 1H closes bearish breaking 1239.4 with volume (volume≥5,000 contracts), short on rebound at 1241~1242.5, stop loss 1244.5, target 1230.6, odds 4.0.
If volume closes above 1252.3 (volume≥7,000) = supply is eaten, two short positions invalidated, wait for pullback instead.
$SNDK
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)This "king" at four thousand dollars is about to be checkmated, but the chessboard hasn't been captured yet—the real thing being taken isn't the gold price, but the last pawn chain of the bulls. Spot gold has fallen below the 4000 mark, losing about 4% this week. The uncertainty in the Middle East is like distant smoke screens, unable to hide the forced exchanges on the board; inflation worries driven by oil and interest rate expectations are swapping places, pushing safe-haven forces from the king's wing to the rear wing. When liquidity demand rises, the most liquid assets are the first to be exchanged for cash. This is not a failure of the safe haven, but a sacrifice under time pressure. Gold's support has never been written in news headlines but in the pawn structure and cash flow; round numbers are just visual focal points, while the open line determines the activity of the forces. On my chessboard, heavy bets on safe havens expose the king on the open line, while light probing is just pawn moves that cannot relieve midgame pressure.
Looking at $xIWM, this tokenized US stock asset, don't just focus on the intraday chart; watch its lead or lag with gold prices: if gold rebounds but it lags, it indicates selling pressure from passive liquidation, just exchanges on the board; if it recovers first while gold remains low, risk appetite is quietly changing hands, and gold's safe-haven narrative is downgraded to a minor piece in the endgame. The real strong player doesn't bet on a needle at the 4000 integer mark but calculates twenty moves on the open line: oil prices, interest rate expectations, margin chains—if any of these three lines are constrained, the safe-haven buying can only be defensive. Middle East news is a tactical smoke screen; liquidity is the strategic main axis. When selling gold for cash becomes the main trend, any "safe-haven must rise" formula must be rewritten. Whether short-term selling pressure can ease is not about slogans but whether the pawn chain can close again: gold price must first stabilize at the pivot after exchanges, and $xIWM must confirm in the same direction; otherwise, the rebound is just a passing gate in the endgame, with the initiative still in cash hands.
Four thousand is not an iron gate but the open line after exchanges; whoever treats the safe haven as an iron gate is missing a pawn in the endgame. #goldfallsbelow$4000 How to value prediction markets has been a hot topic recently. Most people only focus on TVL, but I think they're using the wrong yardstick.
First, look at the demand. The global gross gambling revenue in 2024 is $712 billion. In the US, commercial gambling is projected at $78.62 billion in 2025, with sports betting at $16.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. Domestically, the lottery sales in 2025 reached 419.392 billion yuan. The demand has always been there; it just hasn't been captured by proper tools.
Next, consider the new things. Predicting who will win an election, whether a ceasefire will happen by year-end, or if a company will go public can all be expressed as clear Yes or No prices. The gambling era never had this level of granularity.
Capital has already voted with cash. Kalshi raised $1 billion in its Series F round this May, with a valuation of $22 billion. ICE has invested a total of $1.6 billion in Polymarket.
The most critical point is that Predict has integrated with Binance. With 300 million registered users, balances can be used directly, and there is an independent section entry. Polymarket currently cannot access this position.
So don't just look at TVL; order book depth, bid-ask spreads, paid retention, and capital turnover should all be considered. The same 100 USDT can cycle through multiple rounds of settlement in short-term markets. According to the DefiLlama snapshot on October 24, the gross fees in the past 30 days were $7.41 million, with an annualized protocol retention of about $21.9 million. Continuous conversion at the entry point means I am willing to see $5 billion in the medium term.
This is an entry business, not a deposit business. Don't just look at TVL when predicting market valuation. The global gross gaming revenue in 2024 is $712 billion, and US sports betting is expected to reach $16.89 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, with demand consistently strong.
What really matters for Predict is the entry point—connecting to Binance's 300 million users, with account balances directly usable. Polymarket doesn't have this position yet. The gross fees in the last 30 days were $7.41 million, with an annualized protocol retention of about $21.9 million. If the entry point can sustain conversion, I'm willing to value it at $5 billion in the mid-term. #OpenAI valuation downgraded, AI giants face intensified financing competition. This news is suppressing risk appetite across the entire tech growth sector, and Tesla, as a high-valuation growth stock, cannot remain unaffected; my judgment is short-term bearish, only trading disciplined rebound shorts, not chasing the dip. Currently at 371.79, up only 0.1% in 24 hours, with a volume of 6.22 million indicating a lack of follow-through by bulls. Hourly and four-hour levels are weakening simultaneously, having retraced 4.04% from the four-hour high. The first resistance is at 373.42 above, and 369.18 below is a short-term must-hold level; order book top 10 shows 62 bids and 27 asks, with a buy/sell ratio of 2.31 indicating buying support, but funding rate at 0.0000% and 34,000 contracts open interest suggest neutral sentiment, no one willing to pay for direction, so the rebound is more likely a bull trap. Strategy one: short at rebound to 372.86, stop loss at 374.35, target 369.42, risk-reward ratio about 2.3:1; strategy two: if volume breaks below 369.18, short again, stop loss at 370.66, target 365.83. Single trade risk controlled within 1% of total capital, no entry if not triggered.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wishing smooth trading. —
$TSLA#SpaceX $40 billion AI financing plan blocked
#OpenAI valuation downgraded, AI giants face intensified financing competition
$TSLA #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The market has already priced in nearly 90% chance of a pause in rate hikes in October. For $BTC, this pause is not exactly bullish.
The real uncertainty lies in December: Reuters surveyed 100 economists, all of whom expect a rate hike in December, and futures markets assign over a 70% probability. Brent crude remains above $114, and if tensions in the Middle East escalate further, oil prices will only push the rate hike sooner.
The decision will be announced at 2 AM Hong Kong time on 10/29. If Warsh doesn't soften his stance on December, BTC will first test whether 79,168 can hold.
$BTC $ETH The two short positions in the afternoon both hit their targets: at 13:00, 250,000 contracts were cut from 80896 to 80459.6; at 17:00, another 264,000 contracts pierced 80050, which is 210 points lower than the second level at 80260. Finished for the day, don't chase shorts — the current price is 80517, 700 points away from 80050, the odds aren't favorable.
At 19:00, 185,000 contracts with +0.38% completely absorbed the 18:00 bearish candle closing at 80543. Is this a short covering or new longs? Leaning towards the former: the volume to push back is 185,090, only 70% of the 263,611 contracts that hammered the market at 17:00, and it closed 29 points below the MA20 at 80572; no candle today has closed above it. At 20:00, only 17,000 contracts traded in over twenty minutes, no one is following up.
If the 1H candle closes with volume above 80611.5 (19:00 high, volume ≥ 200,000 contracts), buy on pullback between 80500~80570, stop loss at 80370, target 81008, odds 2.9.
If the 1H candle closes with volume below 80240 (volume ≥ 180,000 contracts), short on rebound between 80300~80360, stop loss at 80450, target 80050, odds 2.3.
If neither triggers, 80517 is the middle, no movement.
$BTC
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)