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$ETH current price is 2,346.13, bearish bias, this rebound will most likely retest 2,296.3. 24-hour short positions were liquidated for 18.06 million USD, while long positions only 4.8 million. The rise from the low point mainly relied on shorts being forced to cover; no new funds are actively adding longs. Covering happens only once; after shorts are cleared, this buying momentum stops. Options are even more direct. The put/call volume ratio surged to 2.01, while open interest ratio is only 0.93, indicating new entries today are clearly crowded on the bearish side. DVOL at 53 is not expensive; people are still willing to pay for downside protection. The chart shows lower highs continuously, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, price hugging previous lows, consistent with this bearish view. The batch of shorts just cleared was originally fuel for a short squeeze during the downtrend; now that it's gone, resistance is lower when price falls back to previous lows. Bullish reversal condition: hold above 2,355.42, indicating new buying after covering; otherwise, this view is invalid.Hot Coin Data Rankings｜Last 15 Minutes
$APR surged with increased volume and positions. Trading volume reached 3.312 million USDT, 4.4 times the 15-minute average volume calculated from the previous hour; price +13.05%, positions +0.82%. Price and positions both trending bullish; during pullbacks, first check if positions remain.
$ETH surged with increased volume but decreased positions. Trading volume was 296 million USDT, 4.2 times the 15-minute average volume from the previous hour; price +0.69%, positions -1.16%. Price increase driven by position closures without new leverage support, limiting sustainability.
$BTC surged with increased volume but reduced positions, with buying and selling nearly balanced at the end. Trading volume was 201 million USDT, 3.0 times the 15-minute average volume from the previous hour; positions -1.18%. At the end, active buying was 56.8%, with price +0.17% during that segment. The overall structure differs from the final segment, suggesting a possible shift in market control.At 8 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow morning, SK Hynix will release its Q3 report and simultaneously announce additional shareholder returns. Korean brokers estimate operating profit to be around 77 trillion KRW, revenue about 98 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 80%. I estimate the operating profit will be roughly as expected, but the net profit will look very bad. In 2018, Hynix invested in Kioxia through Bain, and currently still holds convertible bonds issued by Bain. Converted, this is roughly a 14% stake in Kioxia, accounted for at Kioxia's stock price. In Q3, Kioxia's stock price dropped 39.5%, and the JPY to KRW exchange rate fell nearly 10%, so I roughly calculate a loss of 25 to 37 trillion KRW on this part. In Q2, it was the opposite, with investment income of 63.3 trillion KRW. Additionally, with the KRW appreciating, the USD assets held will incur a foreign exchange loss, so net profit may only be about 30 trillion KRW, compared to 93.9 trillion KRW in Q2. Therefore, Korean media will likely report a sharp drop in net profit tomorrow morning, but this has little to do with how well memory sales are doing. OKX Orbit has two figures for Hynix. The one exceeding expectations is based on the earnings per share shown on Seeking Alpha, which is $6.25. The rules state to settle according to the number displayed on the page, without recalculating. The problem lies on this page. SKHY is an ADS traded on Nasdaq, where 1 ADS corresponds to only 0.1 ordinary Korean shares. Last quarter, the Normalized column on the page was empty, and the GAAP column was 90.6BTC is about to rebound to a resistance level! Publicly placing BTC short orders! This drop broke below 79,000! Publicly giving the trade!
The logic behind this trade is very simple: to catch a weak pullback after a rebound.
From a technical perspective, the 81,488 level is right below the previous broken dense chip area, and it is also the resistance zone for this weak rebound. BTC is pulling up from the 80,000 mark, but the volume can't keep up, which is a typical low-volume bull trap. The area from 82,000 to 82,500 is full of trapped positions; the bulls don't have the strength to break through in one go. As long as the rebound stalls near 81,488 or forms a long upper shadow, it is an excellent position to short from the top.
Looking at the macro and news environment, the current overall situation does not support BTC running an independent rally. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is ongoing, inflation pressure remains, and long-term US Treasury yields are stuck near 5%. With such high risk-free interest rates, funds are moving to safe havens. On the tech side, Meta's nearly 100 billion financing plan has drained liquidity, and the risks of AI giants burning money wildly are growing. Coupled with the volatile Middle East situation, oil prices have temporarily fallen but could rebound at any time. Overall risk appetite is extremely fragile.
My order placement method is very strict. I place a short order directly at 81,488, with a stop loss above 82,300. As long as volume increases and it stabilizes above 82,300, it means the short logic has failed, and I will admit defeat and exit without holding the position. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC Jamie Dimon said Bitcoin could have an annualized return of 10% over the next decade. I read this news three times to make sure I wasn't mistaken about the person.
The one who has been criticizing Bitcoin for over ten years is now helping Morgan configure portfolios for clients. My first reaction wasn't excitement but calculation—if the money from his clients really enters the market, most likely he wouldn't want the whole world to catch the baton at a high point. In the same week, Morgan Stanley's ETF wallet only bought 80 BTC, worth over $60,000, with a historical total of just 6.45 million. Institutions are really buying, but they keep their heads down; their volume and position sizes are inversely related.
BTC is now just above 80,000, with a low of 79,300 last night. The bigger the official shouting long, the less they buy—I've paid my tuition to learn this rule. This time I won't follow the noise; I'll watch where the money moves.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve's decision will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, with the mainstream market expectation being no change!
The current federal funds rate range is 3.75%-4.00%, with a unanimous 25 basis point hike on September 16. Originally, the market priced a 65% probability of another rate hike in October by late September, but after Waller's speech on October 16, this expectation dropped directly below 15%.
So this time, don't focus on whether they raise rates or not; the key is to watch the wording and voting dissent! First, will the statement's description of inflation turn more hawkish; second, will there be any dissenting votes—there were already three votes for a rate hike in July; third, will the press conference leave the door open for December.
The real direction will be set at the December 8-9 meeting, which will include the dot plot!
Another key point: the decision comes just 6 days before the November 3 midterm elections, a sensitive timing when the Fed usually does not act lightly. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My answer is yes
SK Hynix Q3 will exceed expectations: HBM4 is the next baton
SK Hynix Q3 results will be announced tomorrow. The market has lowered the operating profit forecast from 81.5 trillion KRW to 77 trillion KRW, citing caution over HBM4. This downgrade actually lowers the bar for exceeding expectations.
First, let's look at what has happened: Samsung's preliminary Q3 operating profit is 107.4 trillion KRW, up 782% year-on-year, with storage price increases as the main driver; DRAM contract prices rose 21%–22% quarter-on-quarter, and NAND prices are also rising. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit margin was already 76%, so as long as shipments and prices are maintained in Q3, 77 trillion is not a high target. Meritz is more aggressive, projecting 80.1 trillion.
HBM4 is the next baton. The 12-layer HBM4 will be the main product in 2026, and the 8-layer version is for Nvidia Rubin Ultra, targeting mass production in Q2 2027. Nvidia recently lowered HBM4 bandwidth, which seems more about yield and multi-vendor ramp-up rather than demand disappearance. HBM4 has more layers and consumes more wafer per chip, so supply will only tighten.
My judgment: High probability of Q3 exceeding expectations, HBM4 will ramp up in 2026, and the 8-layer version will take over in 2027. For the first round of S2, I bet Yes.🔥Extreme divergence of strength and weakness! ZEC short squeeze buildup, VVV unlock tests authenticity✨
$ZEC $VVV
The BTC market fell below 80,000 with weak volatility📉, but mainstream strong altcoins have completely entered an independent divergent trend! The logic behind these two strong targets is completely different and must not be confused❗️
$ZEC is extremely resilient against the trend✅
Current price 1241, up 2% against the trend in 24H! The chip structure is a textbook short squeeze pattern🔥
Open interest continues to rise, retail long-short ratio only 0.85, severe short squeeze, open contracts exceed 41.1 million, the strongest buildup since September!
Core catalyst locked on November 5 NU7 upgrade💥
Block time compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, greatly increasing certainty of benefits!
There is a heavy 4 million sell wall at 1270 above; before breaking the previous high, chasing longs has low cost-effectiveness, patience is needed to wait for the breakthrough catalyst!
$VVV unlock window tests real strength and weakness⚖️
A super monster coin this year (up 1431%), currently in a critical unlocking period!
Only stabilizing above 27.90 counts as a confirmed rebound; falling below the 22–23 range means weakness directly. This is currently a chip quality verification stage!
Summary highlights💡
ZEC (up 137% this year): short squeeze structure, waiting for benefit explosion
VVV (up 1431% this year): unlocking under pressure, strength and weakness to be determined, shakeout
The rhythms are completely different, position strategies must be treated separately, do not operate uniformly!
⚠️For review and communication only, not investment advice, strictly control positions!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix's financial report is highly likely to show record-breaking numbers again, with revenue and operating profit expected to multiply year-on-year. How is the pricing negotiation for HBM4 progressing? How much capacity is locked in under the long-term supply agreement? Is there any concrete outcome regarding the much-anticipated special dividend? The answers to these questions are key supports for the company to sustain growth until 2028. Otherwise, even a financial report exceeding expectations would only result in a short-term stock price rebound. On the eve of the FOMC, BTC is stuck in a narrow range between 79,400 and 80,800. The repeated buybacks at 79,400–79,600 are the only bullish evidence, but the 50-day EMA (80,765) failed to be reclaimed, MACD's negative value is expanding, and the 68% probability of a December rate hike looms overhead. These three facts point to the same conclusion — this is a stalemate before the "hawkish pause," not the prelude to a trend reversal. 80,765 is the dividing line, and $78,000 is the level where the pattern fundamentally changes. Before the FOMC decision, favor a neutral stance with a slight bullish bias in the middle range; after the decision, wait for Wash's wording on December rather than the rate outcome itself. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The most critical aspect of $BA's performance today is not the order numbers, but the delivery and cash flow realization. Aerospace manufacturing has a long order backlog, but quality control, regulatory review, and the supply chain determine whether deliveries can be made on schedule. Delays tie up cash and weaken trust. If delivery pace and quality metrics improve and cash flow tightens, the recovery logic holds; if production or regulatory issues recur, the valuation rebound needs to be reassessed. Santiment released data during the day showing 30,000 Bitcoin wallets exiting. I usually glance over such obscure indicators, but this time I paused for two extra seconds.
Because on the same side, there's another data point: two whales dormant for three years deposited 2,571 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth just over 200 million at current prices. Retail wallets are emptying out, while old money is moving to exchanges.
On-chain analysts say wallet exits are a bottom signal, while the dump camp says whales moving to exchanges means they're cashing out. Both sides sound reasonable, but I don't fully trust either.
I only focus on one spot. BTC is now at 79,900, with a 24-hour low near 79,450, grinding just below 80,000. Some have even pointed to the 85,000 high as a warning of a death loop.
I treat on-chain signals at this level as noise. Whether the 80,000 line can be reclaimed is the key. If it can, those 2,000-plus whale coins are just a drop in the bucket; if not, it doesn't matter how many bags you hold.
At this level, I neither add shorts nor rush to buy; let both sides battle it out first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 After the market closed on October 29, Amazon released its Q3 earnings report. I am optimistic about the operating data in this report, and the logic is: AWS continues to accelerate. The market now needs to judge how quickly the money Amazon spends can be converted into revenue, and beyond the leading large model companies, how many customers are continuously expanding their consumption. My baseline judgment is that Q3 revenue is about $203.5 billion, operating profit about $27 billion, and AWS growth rate around 40%. Such results are quite good from an operational perspective, but given current expectations, we still need to look at the Q4 guidance and next year's investment plans. Let's talk specifics: 1. First, calibrate expectations; there is an easily overlooked reason for the slowdown in revenue growth. Currently, the public market expects Amazon's Q3 revenue to be about $202.2 billion, with EPS around $1.96. The company previously gave a revenue guidance of $197 billion to $202 billion, and the market is already waiting for it to reach or slightly exceed the upper limit of the guidance. There is a calendar factor here: this year's main market Prime Day was moved up to Q2, while last year it was in Q3. The company clearly stated that excluding the impact of Prime Day over the two years, this quarter's revenue year-over-year growth would be nearly 4 percentage points higher, with exchange rates dragging about 0.8 percentage points. So, seeing the group's revenue growth drop from 20% in Q2 to about 12% expected in Q3, don't rush to conclude that U.S. consumption is weak. Some sales and advertising budgets have already been spent in June. For a company of Amazon's scale, revenue exceeding expectations by a few billion dollars is not unusual.Legislative stagnation, administrative frenzy! U.S. regulators strike on three fronts, has Washington finally bowed to crypto? Brothers, don’t just focus on the CLARITY Act stuck in the Senate; the real explosive news is at the administrative level! Just this Monday, U.S. regulators, without any congressional legislative guidance, simultaneously launched efforts from three directions to frantically build crypto infrastructure. This is definitely a historic turning point for the industry. Experts break down how fierce these "three-pronged attacks" really are: First front: OCC encourages community banks to issue stablecoins. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency directly called on small banks to study issuing their own "digital dollars," setting a new regulation implementation deadline of January 18, 2027. This shows the government has fully recognized reality, no longer rejecting stablecoins but aiming to bring issuance rights back under the regulated traditional banking system. Second front: Crypto giants obtain federal trust charters. Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity, and Paxos secured conditional approvals by the end of last year, officially becoming national trust banks. Although they cannot take deposits and make loans like regular banks, this means they can legally and compliantly custody client assets. Crypto giants have officially put on suits and entered traditional finance. Third front: CFTC builds a registration channel for crypto exchanges. CFTC Chair Selig clearly stated that since Congress is not acting, they will create an "optional" federal registration channel themselves. Even more explosive, Kraken’s parent company Payward plans to become the first entity to be CFTThe co-CEO of Coinbase's institutional business boldly stated that the second wave of institutional funds is entering Bitcoin. My first reaction was here we go again. This has been said from last year to this year, and every time it's said, the price dips first.
Currently BTC is at 80289, with a 24-hour low of 79377, truly breaking below 80,000. On OKX, BTC perpetual positions still hold $2.56 billion, volume hasn't decreased. The money is in the market, but the price can't be pushed up; I generally interpret this combination as someone quietly selling above 80,000.
Moody's also listed a crypto market crash as one of the most likely economic shocks in the next 18 months, with the bullish and bearish news coming less than two hours apart. When the news conflicts, I trust neither and only look at positions and price.
At this point, I neither add longs nor open shorts; I'll wait until 83,000 holds for a week before deciding.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 ETH/SOL/ZEC: Three Pricing Types
$ETH 2318, down less than 1%, leading with $41.86 million liquidations; exchange net outflow of 169,000 coins, hitting a nearly four-month peak, ETH ETF net withdrawals exceeded $1.2 billion in October and for four consecutive weeks. Support above 2330 is weak, the launch of Hoodi testnet does not equate to incremental capital returning, consensus on weakness is unanimous, rebound may still rank last.
$SOL 100.97, down 0.34%, lowest liquidation at $4.98 million; spot net inflow of $5.84 million, with Firedancer and Alpenglow providing themes, but ETF net outflow for three weeks and over $72 million in recent months. 100.50–100.80 is the short-term defense line, trend is relatively stable but slow, marginal buying is insufficient.
$ZEC 1209.76, up 1.6%, the only green chart; liquidations at $5.07 million, market cap only about one-third of SOL, highest leverage crowding; positive fee rate means longs pay to hold positions. NU7, halving, and privacy narratives overlap, strongest resilience but also most fragile in drawdowns.
Ranking: Strength ZEC > SOL > ETH; Support SOL > ZEC > ETH; Leverage fragility ZEC > ETH > SOL.
Watch: Whether ETH ETF withdrawals converge, whether ZEC positive fee rate reverses. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 The Federal Reserve's meeting results will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.
Most likely no change. The current federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4.00%, and on September 16, it was unanimously raised by 25 basis points. The market pricing for another hike in October was 65% in late September but dropped to below 15% after the speech on October 16.
So the focus this time is on the wording and voting dissent.
There are three key points to watch. Whether the statement will use tougher language to describe inflation; whether any members vote against, as three votes clearly supported a rate hike in the July meeting; and whether the press conference will leave the door open for December.
The meeting on December 8-9 will include the dot plot, and the direction will be seen then.
There is also a timing factor. When the decision is announced, there will be only 6 days left until the November 3 midterm elections. The Fed usually prefers not to make moves at such times. $BTC #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Demand narrative is shifting from "training" to "inference," with the short-term fundamentals being nearly flawless; however, the market is already pricing in two things in advance — the possibility of NAND supply and demand turning loose by 2027, and the sustainability of current profit levels in a cyclical sense. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Leverage positions remain, but liquidations are light: Is this the "calm before the storm" for the DOGE market?
The derivatives market for Dogecoin is unusually quiet at the moment. Open interest holds steady around $215 million, and leverage positions remain substantial; however, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidations on both long and short sides have amounted to less than $50,000. Despite the clear presence of leverage, large-scale liquidations have not occurred.
This stark contrast reveals two key facts. First, the overall leverage ratio of DOGE positions is currently not high. Liquidations typically concentrate on high-leverage positions, and a mere $50,000 in liquidations indicates that the vast majority of holders have relatively sufficient margin and strong risk resistance. Second, the narrow price fluctuations have not created conditions for forced liquidations. Liquidations require prices to quickly hit liquidation thresholds, but the current daily volatility of only 2.4% is insufficient to trigger most positions.
This calm is a double-edged sword for the market. The benefit is that without cascading liquidations causing liquidity shortages, prices can find support within a relatively rational range, avoiding irrational panic selling. However, the risk is also present: the large open interest acts like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead. Once the market experiences a breakthrough in a one-sided move, these poised leveraged funds can easily trigger intense chain reactions.
DOGE is currently in a delicate balance, with both bulls and bears waiting for a clear signal. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC so many big wallets waking up is not a good thing, think about why 58,000 didn't wake up until now.$IRYS IRYS, this market depth really made me laugh.
A daily turnover of 76 million USD, but the underlying liquidity pool is only 1.5 million.
The turnover looks lively, but in reality, it's as thin as a sheet of paper, all market makers entertaining themselves.
With this depth, even a slight selling pressure can directly break through the bottom.
The key is that next month there will be even larger team and institutional unlocks landing.
You think you're bottom fishing, but they're in a hurry to shove their holdings into your mouth.
Don't just watch the excitement; whoever takes over this market is getting fooled.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇90% of people bet correctly on no rate hike, so what?
The Federal Reserve will announce the result at 2 a.m. Thursday. Interest rate futures pricing shows the probability of no change is already over 90%, compared to only 50% two weeks ago. In other words, the market has long finished trading the phrase "no rate hike."
When a positive outcome is known to everyone, even retail investors have already fully bet on it in advance, how much buying power will be left on the actual day?
Moreover, tonight's data leaves no room for the dovish camp. Durable goods orders rose 1.8%, the strongest in five months; consumer confidence is 91.7, while expectations were only 81; the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.997. With the economy so resilient, there is no reason for Powell to back down on Thursday. If he even mentions a rate hike in December, the current pricing will have to be reshuffled.
$BTC is hovering above 80,000, having touched 79,300 during the day; the 80,500 to 81,000 range was broken early. Every time it pulls back to 80,000 these days, it is unlocking trapped positions above, making you feel it can't fall further. If the 78,500 to 79,000 support fails, the next level is above 76,000.
$ETH is weaker, moving sideways between 2,310 and 2,335, with over 10 million short positions pressing down at 2,346. The real test is the support line at 2,246 and 2,235; if it breaks 2,240, it will head to 2,200.
High interest rates still hang between 3.75 and 4.0, money is not cheap. If it bounces higher from here, first think about reducing positions, not chasing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Late night market watch: This 15-minute level rebound of XAUT really has some substance.📈
The core logic remains the triple resonance of "oil drop + bottom fishing + Fed game." The oil price pullback eased inflation worries, the 4000 level attracted a batch of dip buyers, and with short covering before the Fed meeting, bulls launched a direct counterattack.
However, looking at the resistance zone of 4050-4100 above, how long this big bullish candle can hold still needs to be observed. After all, the real test will be Wednesday's decision and PCE data.
#TradingDiary #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $XAU Among the seventh batch of key enterprises introduced by the Hong Kong Key Enterprises Office, there is a Nasdaq-listed company called Solana Company, which operates the SOL treasury and validator nodes, holding about 2.2 million SOL on its books. It is the only blockchain infrastructure company invited in this year, and they also said the Asia-Pacific headquarters is set in Hong Kong.
The cards are good. But SOL is currently fluctuating around 100.9, with a 24-hour low touching 99.83, still not standing up. Everyone saw the drop below 100 a couple of days ago, and I was puzzled—after so many positive factors, why is the price still lying flat?
Looking at the perpetual contracts, it's even clearer: open interest is $3.2 billion, the fee rate is 0.01%, lukewarm at best. Real money buying hasn't kept up.
What SOL lacks this round isn't a story, but someone willing to commit three months' worth of funds in one go. Stories can be hyped up easily, but the money isn't there.
Of course, it's quite funny for me, an empty holder, to be worrying about this here.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Kraken's parent company is moving the US perpetual contracts onto the Hyperliquid chain. Would you call this a positive development, or a hole poked in decentralization?
I've thought about this, and it's not that simple. Hyperliquid itself announced on October 26: Bitnomial (a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse under Payward) will be the first regulated HIP-3 deployer, with NinjaTrader Clearing managing client accounts, pending regulatory approval.
Matching happens on-chain, compliance at the door. To get through this door, you first have to be on the whitelist. This is completely different from their usual permissionless approach.
HYPE is currently at 78.6, up 2.7% in 24 hours; the market is rallying first. My view is that this is about grabbing TradFi's landing channel, neutral to slightly positive, but don't expect US retail investors to suddenly flood in without barriers.
The real value is that the on-chain order book has been approved by regulators. I support this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 HOOD Robinhood｜Prediction: Choose Yes
Robinhood's performance is highly tied to the liquidity of the crypto market. The current market consensus continues to be revised upward, with Bernstein setting a target price of 0.60, indicating good upside potential.
Risks are also evident: crypto market volatility is high, and if coin prices weaken, it will drag down the platform's trading revenue. At the same time, attention should be paid to whether NIR (Net Interest Revenue) turns negative.
This forecast approach: follow the trend to bet on the upward direction of the seller consensus, waiting for the earnings report to verify.A $22.46 million position, 25x leverage short, floating loss of $48,000. I saw this order in the news flash today and watched it closely for a while.
The price actually hasn't moved much. ETH is now at 2332, with a 24-hour low of 2297, just a swing of about thirty-something dollars back and forth, the shorts are already sweating first. Around 2300 I also wanted to short, but was too slow to enter; now it looks like I dodged a bullet.
On the same day, there was an old-timer holding for four years who transferred 3084 ETH into Binance, and the media calculated his profit at $920,000. The one holding for four years chose to exit, the one using 25x leverage chose to stay; these two contrasting choices make it interesting.
The fees are cheap for both longs and shorts, 0.0096%, with $15.3 billion in open positions sideways without movement, indicating no one is betting on a big directional move.
At this level, I’m not chasing shorts. There are old chips above wanting to exit, and 2300 below can’t be broken through; both sides are wearing each other down. I’ll follow whoever gives up first.
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ Conclusion first: $BREV rose 16.6% in the past 24 hours (0.0800→0.0933), but the buying pressure is neither on-chain nor on OKX; it's on the Korean won market in South Korea.
On South Korea's Upbit, the KRW-BREV 24-hour trading volume was 48.26 million tokens (about 4.5 million USD), with 37.36 million tokens traded in the three hours after 20:00, accounting for 77% of the daily volume. The price moved 110→122→118→122 KRW, now at 125, with a 24-hour high of 128 (+16.8%).
On-chain activity is almost empty: only $1,795 traded on Uniswap in 24 hours.
On OKX, perpetual contracts traded $6.97 million, while spot only $348,000—perpetual is 20 times the spot volume. What’s really worth noting is the funding rate: out of the last 8 periods, 7 settled negative; at 20:00 today it was -0.0155%, and the current period is -0.1125%. Shorts are continuously paying longs, yet the price keeps rising.
My judgment: the rise is driven by Korean spot market, while positions are built up in perpetuals. Market cap is only $23.27 million, FDV 93.09 million, 4x dilution. Whether the buying pressure from Korea is still there is the real question for those chasing longs; for shorts, with funding rates this negative, the odds are not in your favor. For this $BREV move, do you think it’s short-term capital or the first phase of a new narrative?This week, three major risks hang over the US stock market: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell's press conference, and GDP and core PCE data. The market is most eager for a signal of rate cuts.
At 2:00 AM the decision will be announced, followed by the 2:30 AM press conference: the interest rate is very likely to remain unchanged this time, with the focus on Powell's wording. If he acknowledges inflation easing and leaves room for rate cuts, growth stocks like the Nasdaq and storage sectors will likely see a rush of capital; if he remains hawkish, emphasizing inflation volatility and delaying rate cuts, high-valuation stocks like $SOXL and $SDK are likely to take a hit first.
At 8:30 PM, GDP and core PCE data will be released: if GDP is too strong, it will be interpreted as the economy holding up well, reducing the urgency for rate cuts; core PCE is the Fed's key concern—if it rises, expectations for rate cuts will cool, and the tech sector may plunge; if it falls below the previous 0.2%, rate cut expectations will heat up, giving growth stocks momentum to rebound.
SK Hynix's earnings report has just been released, and the storage sector was already in a battle for reversal, but whether it can launch a major rally depends on the Fed's macro gate. Earnings reflect the sector's fundamentals, but interest rates and inflation are the overall market's master switch. Even if earnings are good, if Powell remains hawkish, any rebound may be interrupted; conversely, if inflation weakens and the Fed turns dovish, risk assets like US stocks, semiconductors, and BTC are expected to rise in tandem.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Brothers, I'm numb, really numb!
This time I really have to thank this "toy company" that makes robots, it gave me a solid feast!
Why call it a toy company?
Go and savor the "mismatch between capital frenzy and deployment economics."
That sounds too literary, so in plain A-share language: the story is too rich, but the actual performance is disappointingly weak!
Concepts are hyped to the sky, valuations soar to unimaginable heights, but in the end, real profits have to pay the bill. What if they can't?
They can only crash down!
Look at the $UNITREE candlestick chart, it previously skyrocketed to 104.79. How many people got jealous and rushed in impulsively?
And the result? Now the truth is out, it’s crashed straight down to 93.50.
All the moving averages above have turned downward, forming a crushing pressure like Mount Tai.
The crazier it rose before, the more miserable it falls now. This is pure bubble burst, value returning!
My short position at the high of 102, holding until now, comfortably took an 83% profit.
When trading, never be brainwashed by so-called "grand narratives." No matter how big the bubble, it will always be popped by a needle someday.
I’ve already planned the next script: if it dares to struggle desperately and rebounds to the dense trapped zone between 96 and 98, I will be ruthless and decisively add to my short position!
$BTC
$ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $11 billion worth of BTC options expire on Friday, a figure that deserves more attention than the FOMC many have been watching this week. Guess which direction market makers fear the price will move the most right now? First, look at the calendar: October 29 FOMC, with interest rates most likely to remain unchanged; the real variable is the forward guidance in December, where a more hawkish tone would shrink risk appetite. On the same day, there are also PCE and Q3 GDP reports. Cooling inflation is a tailwind for narrative coins like ZEC, but if prices stick, the rebound space is limited. However, these two events are about expectations; the real impact on the books comes from the $11 billion BTC options settlement on October 30. Why is the options settlement more worth watching than the news? Because market makers' hedging is mechanical. There are large positions stacked in the 83K to 85K range; when prices approach this range, gamma hedging forces them to chase rallies and sell into dips, amplifying volatility. Once prices deviate, hedging pressure diminishes, and the market tends to suddenly calm down. In other words, BTC's rhythm this week is likely not a one-sided narrative but first pulled by the derivatives structure. Here's how I see the transmission path: if the FOMC guidance is hawkish and PCE remains sticky, risk appetite contracts first, high-beta altcoins come under pressure, and ETH's volatility rises along with BTC's; if inflation data cools, narrative coins like ZEC warm up first, but whether funds dare to spread to altcoins depends on whether BTC's volatility falls after settlement. The bullish side is that once settlement lands and hedging pressure releases, prices standing back at the upper range edge can restore sentiment; the risk is if the 83K to 85K range breaks, mechanical
UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) (October 19-26, 2026)
This indicator tracks the price distribution of Bitcoin (BTC) at the last on-chain movement (transaction) of currently circulating coins.
Each orange bar represents the amount of BTC last transacted within a specific price range (here spaced at $1000 intervals, i.e., ATH segments).
Chip Concentration Areas: The taller the bar, the more "chips" (trading volume) accumulated in that price range. These areas are technically considered important support zones (dense areas below, where many holding costs lie, potentially attracting buy orders during declines) or resistance zones (dense areas above, where price rallies may encounter selling pressure to break even).
URPD DIFF (Chip Changes) (October 19-26, 2026)
Based on URPD, this marks the increase or decrease of chips by comparing the selected time period:
Red solid bars (DIFF positive): indicate chip increases in the price range, showing recent large BTC transactions at this price level (accumulation or turnover).
Green dashed lines (DIFF negative): indicate chip decreases in the price range, showing chips originally at this price level have shifted (upward shifts often mean profit-taking sales, downward shifts may mean stop-loss selling or redistribution).
Current Chart and Market Analysis
Combining the data in the chart (current price around $80,500) and the present market structure:
Core Chip Concentration Area (Strong Support)
Chart$BTW is such a new coin, rising more than 200 times in just a few months. The key point is that at its peak, the fully unlocked market cap was nearly 30 billion. It's really funny that a coin with such a lackluster market cap could make it into the top ten.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
"Robinhood Explosive Volume: Where Does the Increment Come From?"
Robinhood's crypto trading fees surged quarter-over-quarter in Q3, with retail and high-frequency trading enthusiasm in the US stock market fully ignited.
Comparing with spot trading data across the web, BTC's daily trading volume gradually declined from $553 million on October 22 to $225 million on the 27th, with the price oscillating repeatedly around the $80,000 mark.
The platform earns fees through lending coins with leverage and high-frequency turnover, but whether the subsequent trading growth momentum can be sustained depends crucially on the Q3 audited financial report to be released on October 30. $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix's Q3 2026 financial report will be released on October 28. In Q3, HBM4 is mostly in the stacking and early volume ramp-up stages. The strong performance and profits for the quarter are still mainly supported by the high-priced long-term contracted HBM3E and DRAM price increases. Whether HBM4 can substantially boost profitability depends on mass production yield, unit manufacturing cost, and order visibility for Q4.$PYPL Today's key focus is whether payment transaction volume can drive a rebound in profit margins. Active accounts and total payment volume on payment platforms only matter if they convert into high-quality transaction revenue; competition and promotions will erode profits. The interest rate environment also affects consumption and financing costs. If transaction volume growth, profit margins, and cash flow all improve simultaneously, a recovery is credible; if revenue is driven by low-margin business and user growth is weak, I will remain cautious. $XAU Gold has finally broken through the short-term resistance near 4040 after several days of grinding
The area around 4100 is also a dense pressure zone; currently, focus on whether this resistance level can continue to be broken
The current gold news is in a transitional phase of "weakening headwinds but suppression not eliminated," with bullish and bearish forces more balanced than before
The factors supporting the rebound mainly come from two lines: first, the decline in oil prices has eased inflation and the transmission pressure of rate hikes. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan visited Iran for talks, showing marginal progress in Middle East diplomatic mediation. Brent crude fell back to around $110, and WTI briefly dropped below $100 intraday. The cooling of oil prices has temporarily removed the main driving force of the suppression chain "high inflation → Fed forced to tighten further," giving gold some breathing room. Second, there is structural buying support below 4000.
However, this is currently an oversold rebound; gold needs to hold above 4230 to be considered a strong rebound. The directional choice will most likely be broken by this week's Fed decision and subsequent PCE data
The above is a personal opinion for reference only Why is the crypto market still rising tonight when US data is so strong?
Let's look at the data first. At 8:30, durable goods orders rose 1.8% month-over-month, the biggest increase in five months; at 10:00, the consumer confidence index was 91.7, while the market had expected 81. Both are numbers that say "the economy is very strong," and the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up to 5%, peaking at 4.997.
Logically, this should give the Federal Reserve more confidence to stay tough, and risk assets should be avoided.
So what happened? $BTC was still below 80,000 during the day but rallied back to 80,300 at night; $ETH bounced from 2299 to 2334; $SOL also climbed back above 100. Some people started saying "all bad news is priced in."
Honestly, I don't understand this kind of rally.
It seems everyone only remembers one thing: a rate hike is very unlikely early Thursday morning. So no matter how strong the data is, it can be interpreted as "no rate hike anyway, so it's good news." But the fact that the Treasury yield surged to 5% is being ignored by the market—when the risk-free rate is nearly 5%, money can earn interest just by sitting idle, so who would still speculate in crypto?
My view is simple: tonight's rally is mostly a rebound from the daytime drop and short covering, plus a bunch of people betting on no rate hike. The real bombshell will be on Thursday, when Powell talks about December.
Then we'll know if tonight's bullish candle is a rebound or a trap to lure you in.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
A comprehensive early interpretation of the rate decision
Maintaining the rate unchanged in October is a foregone conclusion, but the real killer move is hidden in the press conference wording and the December rate hike expectations.
First, the conclusion prediction.
First, October will definitely hold steady, this is an undisputed clear card.
The CME data in the chart has already revealed the bottom line, with a 90.6% probability of maintaining the rate unchanged. The Federal Reserve cannot create surprises at this critical moment and go against the entire market.
Second, the biggest variable is that this meeting does not have a dot plot.
This time, no new economic forecast will be released. This means the market has lost one of the most important coordinates. Without the guidance of the dot plot, every word and phrase from the Fed Chair at the press conference will be scrutinized by investors with a magnifying glass, becoming the sole anchor for market pricing.
Third, the guillotine of a December rate hike still hangs overhead.
The probability of a 25 basis point hike in December has soared to between 67.5% and 73.9%. This indicates that even if October pauses, the Fed is still hawkish at its core.
Specific predictions for BTC:
If the press conference is hawkish: As long as the statement or speech continues to emphasize stubborn inflation or that restrictive policies still need to be maintained, the expectation of a December rate hike will be reinforced again.
If the press conference is dovish: Unless the Fed explicitly signals that the rate hike cycle has ended, the market is unlikely to reverse directly. BTC may stabilize with reduced volume around the 80,000 level, leading to a short-term oversold rebound. $BTC 🚨$HYPE Don't just focus on price fluctuations! What bulls should really pay attention to is that it is turning trading volume into token demand!
Many people trade crypto only by looking at red and green candlesticks, but they overlook a core issue: can the money a project earns actually support the token?
HYPE's bullish logic lies exactly here!
📌 First, buyback and burn is not just empty talk!
Hyperliquid uses eligible protocol fees to buy back HYPE, then burns the tokens through the aid fund mechanism. Public reports show that as of mid-October, the cumulative buyback scale has reached tens of millions of HYPE. The more active the trading, the more opportunity for protocol revenue to increase, giving the token more direct demand support. Note that the income and buyback ratio also vary; rising trading volume does not necessarily push the token price up.
📌 Second, the ecosystem no longer only focuses on cryptocurrencies
HIP-3 is expanding perpetual contract markets for more assets, giving Hyperliquid the chance to capture trading demand for assets like gold and silver. The larger the market, the more users and revenue sources the platform can reach in the future.
📌 Third, what do bulls really need to wait for?
Not to blindly buy the dip when seeing a drop, but to observe whether key supports hold, whether rebounds have volume support, and whether funding rates and open interest are overheated. A volume breakout above resistance makes the bullish structure more convincing; if support fails, be cautious of further pullbacks.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $MEME Amazon's earnings report is coming soon. Besides AWS growth, I also want to hear about Trainium.
Amazon disclosed in Q2 that the annualized revenue scale of its AI business and chip business each exceeds $25 billion. It is important to note that the annualized scale is calculated based on the current business pace and should not be considered as completed full-year revenue, nor should the two be simply added together as independent new revenue.
What interests me is whether self-developed chips can help AWS retain customers.
If customers migrate workloads over and achieve suitable performance and cost, AWS has the opportunity to secure longer-term usage through the combination of chips, software, and cloud services. Such customer relationships are more worth observing than a one-time equipment sale.
However, from announcement to large-scale use, adaptation is needed. Whether developers can migrate easily and whether operations are stable will affect how many tasks customers ultimately put on it. Signing a partnership is far from completing all the work.
I hope the earnings report can provide more progress on actual usage and less hype supported only by promised amounts. After all, customers' willingness to pay continuously indicates the product has entered daily operations.
AWS is already very large, and the market's willingness to expect higher growth naturally demands more concrete evidence. If self-developed chips can continuously bring customers and profits, I think this achievement is more exciting than simply buying another batch of GPUs.
#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ $XRP
While many are focused on stablecoins regarding Ripple's partnership with Robinhood, I'm watching another development: BNY Mellon announced custody of XRP and RLUSD, and plans to collaborate with Ripple on tokenizing trade finance.
The term "custody," coming from a 200-year-old established bank, carries a different weight. Previously, exchanges held your coins; now traditional banks say, "We'll do it." I acknowledge this system—licenses are not obtained for nothing.
XRP is currently priced at 1.317, fluctuating between 1.284 and 1.321 in the past 24 hours, up just over 1%, with a fee rate of 0.01%, and no rush of funds.
People often ask me where XRP can go; I don't give a price. Traditional finance is starting to guard the crypto space, and that is worth more than today's 1% gain—when someone truly puts client assets in, I'll make a separate note.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH
A $22.46 million position, 25x leverage short, floating loss of $48,000. I saw this order flash in the news today and watched it closely for a while.
The price actually hasn't moved much. ETH is now at 2332, with a 24-hour low of 2297, just a swing of about thirty-some dollars, and the shorts are already sweating. I also wanted to short around 2300 but was too slow to enter; looking back, I dodged a bullet.
On the same day, there was an old-timer holding for four years who transferred 3084 ETH into Binance, and the media calculated his profit at $920,000. Choosing to exit after four years versus choosing to stay with 25x leverage—these two decisions happening simultaneously is quite interesting.
The fee rates are cheap for both longs and shorts, 0.0096%, with $15.3 billion in open interest sideways and unmoved, indicating no one is betting on a big directional move.
At this level, I’m not chasing shorts. There are old coins above wanting to exit, and 2300 below is a support that can’t be broken; both sides are wearing each other down. I’ll follow whoever gives up first.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Can $KO's earnings report today indicate that consumer demand remains resilient? For beverage companies, pricing, sales mix, and exchange rate impacts are more important than just looking at revenue; if price increases exceed consumer tolerance, revenue growth may be accompanied by a decline in sales volume. Today's results will provide real clues. If organic sales remain stable and profit margins hold, I will maintain a defensive stance; if sales weaken and growth is only supported by price hikes, the defensive premium needs to be revised downward. $ETH #Spot ETF capital inflow, can BTC and ETH take over?
#October FOMC rate decision to be announced this week
#ETF inflow divergence: funds only cling to BTC, full-scale counterattack is still early
Spot ETFs seem to be warming up, but funds are extremely "biased": BTC attracted $110 million in a single day, IBIT ended outflows and supported the 80,000 level; ETH, however, saw a net outflow of nearly $90 million, with large outflows from BlackRock dragging the overall market; SOL simultaneously outflowed $8.23 million, with high-beta assets bearing the brunt first. This is by no means a full market reversal, just a "selective risk aversion" by funds ahead of the FOMC.
The market fully confirms the divergence: BTC repeatedly battles around the 80,000 mark, facing selling pressure upon touching it. The cumulative outflow pressure exceeding $770 million over the past two days remains unresolved, and single-day inflows are far from enough to reverse the trend. ETH is stuck in a second consolidation range between 2313-2530, running close to the lower boundary. Although downward momentum has eased, incremental buying is lacking, with clear resistance at 2400 and weak breakout strength.
On-chain fund data also shows divergence, with flows contradicting depending on the metrics, essentially reflecting the current fragmented consensus between bulls and bears, with funds acting independently. Before the decision, the market will most likely continue narrow oscillations. In a structural market, avoid blindly bottom-fishing altcoins. Watch closely for two confirmation signals going forward: BTC effectively holding above 80,000 and ETF funds turning to sustained net inflows. Only when both are met simultaneously can the trend be considered stable. The "Fee Drain Fault" in the LSD Track: World's Largest Staking Scale, But Why Doesn't the Token Price Rise?
LSD (Liquid Staking Derivatives) and Restaking tracks are often seen as stable cash cows generating steady yields. However, a large scale does not necessarily mean strong token empowerment. If profits do not flow to token holders, a hundred-billion TVL is just self-indulgence by the project team.
Comparing these three projects:
$LDO: The absolute leader in liquid staking with extremely high TVL. But looking through the token mechanism, the protocol's staking fee revenue is not directly distributed to token holders, and the governance token still lacks hard cash flow capture. When you buy it, you are buying an expectation of ecosystem share, not real dividends.
$ETHFI: The business is indeed expanding, with crypto card payments contributing decent income. But its pain point lies in extremely random buyback execution: it was significantly reduced mid-term, and although it has resumed, it is far below expectations. Also, the team’s tokens are still continuously unlocking, severely diluting the positive cash flow due to selling pressure.
$PENDLE: No gimmicks, directly uses up to 80% of protocol revenue to buy back and distribute to stakers. It does not rely on treasury favors but returns real cash flow to token holders with an extremely rigid mechanism.
Conclusion:
TVL is not a moat; the profit transmission path is. When evaluating LSD/Restaking projects, don’t be fooled by scale. First check: does its net profit directly convert into token buy pressure or dividends through hard-coded mechanisms? Cash flow without mechanism constraints is irrelevant to you. Core Risk Warning
1. Once the "iron bottom" at 79,600 is decisively broken with volume, over 150 million long positions will be directly liquidated: 79,200 is the recent dense liquidation zone for longs, closely aligned with the October 24 waterfall low. If this defense line is breached by selling pressure after the FOMC, the next target will directly point to 78,000.
2. The 68% probability of a rate hike in December is the real "dark horse" of the FOMC: The October pause has been fully priced in, so if Powell clearly paves the way for December, the market will need to reprice the "second half" of the rate path. This is the biggest asymmetric risk after the decision.
3. The ETF structure with "IBIT solely supporting" is extremely fragile: The precedent of 773.5 million is not far away.
4. Open interest remains high, providing ample "fuel" for leveraged liquidations: BTC contract open interest has risen to about 669,253 BTC amid price declines, with traders holding large derivative positions even as spot weakens. Once direction is clear, volatility could be amplified.
5. AI IPO siphoning + tech earnings both bias negative: While the Anthropic IPO boosts AI sentiment, it also diverts risk capital; regardless of tech earnings results, the transmission path to BTC is unfavorable. BTC lacks a beneficial path in this combination.
6. Weekly Stochastic RSI has formed a bearish crossover: This is a mid-term level signal indicating momentum is weakening on the weekly scale, so short-term rebound characterization requires more caution.
$BTC $ETH $DOOD #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Bitcoin is stuck near $80,200, and Ethereum is consolidating around $2,326. The current market trend can be summed up in four words: extremely low volume.
This kind of market with less than 1% volatility is indeed dull to watch. The $80,000 level has become a tug-of-war battleground between bulls and bears. There's a lack of funds to push it higher, and on the downside, there are buyers supporting the price, so the market can only stalemate. Ethereum's trend is weaker, merely hovering above $2,300 following Bitcoin.
Why is big money holding back? The core reason lies in macro-level uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting is imminent, coupled with several tech giants about to release earnings reports, making the macro environment like a "blind box." Risk aversion is strong, liquidity is scarce, so Bitcoin and Ethereum can only grind within this range, waiting for new directional guidance. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SK Hynix (000660.KS) is currently trading at about 1.277 million KRW, having retraced nearly 60% from its peak, but brokerage target prices generally remain above 3 million KRW, showing significant divergence. Technically, it is in an "oversold but not reversed" state. The stock price plunged 24.3% in one week from 1.681 million KRW, marking the largest weekly drop since 2008. Foreign investors net sold 5.36 trillion KRW in one week, reducing their holding ratio to a four-year low of 48.85%. #AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI Google's current GAAP EPS is 2.97 and the expected level for this quarter is 3.03, so to surpass it, it needs 4% more, and I bet that on the last day Google won't be able to reach that income level