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和很多小土狗不一样 $DOGE 没有团队、投资人解锁筹码砸盘的麻烦，算是它的优势 但短板也很明显，没有总量上限，持续增发，缺少稀缺叙事 加上现在市场上新meme层出不穷，持续分流散户资金 很难重现早年那种持续大涨的行情🎭 Green candles? Don't rush in! The surface was covered in a sea of red and green But on-chain data says: funds haven't been left 👇 SHIB +22% 🌚 SPEPE +3.7% 🤷 KITE -3.9% 💀 SLRC -6.2% 📉 This is not the knockoff season This is the rotating harvester at work 🚜 What about the institutions? SETH +0.38%, 🐢 steady as an old dog, but no increased positions AAVE -2% / NEAR -1.2% — momentum has ❄️ cooled ADA +1.2% — Today was really tough 💪 🧠 The conclusion is simple: Don't follow the crowd, follow the money. Gold and dust, you must distinguish yourself. #资金流向 #ADA #不是每个反弹都叫反转Having just finished nails, it's inconvenient to type, But I have to say this market situation Her nails aren't dry yet Push notifications one after another All the headlines were 'Something Happened Again.' I blew it dry while it was on fire The game public chain WEMIX It was rumored to be a suspected security vulnerability The loss was about $700,000 The numbers are not the largest in history But it reminds you of one thing Safety incidents are not based on market value rankings He always picks when you slack off Then guess what CZ came out to comment on BitMart's closure Shutting down a centralized exchange is not easy There are also concerns that the former team is leaving a backdoor This statement is tougher than any slogan A checkpoint does not mean the end of the clearance System permissions and historical interfaces is the thunder lurking in the shadows Add in the aftermath of AFX attacks from a few days ago Stories of hackers swapping warehouses and moving bricks are still circulating on the blockchain You will understand Transparent on the chain is a double-edged sword Bad things can also be livestreamed Dabing is still green near 64513 tonight It was as if nothing had happened But security incidents have never been digested by candlestick charts It eats trust and habit Who still uses 'audit screenshots' as a get-out-of-jail-free card? Who's setting the stage for the next chapter? My fingernails are not suitable for typing I have even less interest in chasing so-called hacker concept coins That kind of thing gets hot quickly All that remains is a record of failed transfers So my judgment is Security modules must be audited in a single session Switching to continuous monitoring and permission convergence At the CEX level, listen to CZ's reminder Shutdowns and handovers themselves are risk events Individual Unlimited Authorization Less Bridges and unconventional contracts are best avoided if possible Green plates can't change my obsession Let's also talk about a few hot topics🚨 BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran Signals It Will Halt Attacks If The US Keeps Strikes Paused A possible off-ramp. Iran says it will stop its attacks as long as the US maintains the pause in its military operations. This follows the US holding off on new strikes for the first time in nearly two weeks, after 13 straight days of bombing Iranian targets. Why it matters for markets is the oil chain. This conflict has kept a floor under crude by threatening the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway carrying a fifth of the world's oil. Every escalation pushed oil up, which revived inflation fear, which kept the Fed boxed in on rate cuts and pressured risk assets like Bitcoin. A genuine pause reverses that. Softer oil eases inflation worry, and that is the friendly setup crypto has been waiting for into the July 29 Fed meeting. Here is the honest part, and it's essential. This exact scenario has played out three times already this year. Ceasefires in April, June, and again in July all collapsed within days, each time sending oil spiking and markets lower. The pause is a de-escalation signal, not a resolution. Netanyahu visits Trump next week, Trump has already threatened more strikes, and the mediators have watched every prior truce unravel. What to watch: Whether the pause holds through Netanyahu's visit and into next week. Oil's reaction, and whether Bitcoin can reclaim $65K on the relief. A ceasefire signal is genuinely good news, but this conflict has burned every optimist who bought it as permanent. Trade the confirmation, not the headline, and keep risk tight into an event that has flipped overnight before. Does this pause finally hold, or crack like every truce before it? Not financial advice. $BTC $CL $BZ Real-time market overview 🖥️ $SHIB suddenly erupted on July 26, becoming the focus of the market. The price surged sharply from around $0.0000042, reaching an intraday high of $0.0000058, marking a more than two-month high. At the time of writing, SHIB was fluctuating around $0.0000056, with a 24-hour increase of as much as 35.37%. Trading volume expanded simultaneously, with market capitalization surging by about $1 billion in a single day. South Korea's Upbit exchange has become the main source of buying, and SHIB has reestablished its position as the "second-largest meme coin by market capitalization." --- Key support and resistance levels 📊 After five consecutive massive 4-hour candlestick spikes, the price has broken through several short-term resistance levels. The RSI surged to the extreme overbought zone at 79.88. The daily chart shows SHIB testing the 200-day moving average near $0.0000050. Resistance levels: 0.0000058 - 0.0000060 (intraday high and integer level); 0.0000067 (May high, strong medium-term resistance); 0.00000628 (Key support lost in May, now turning into resistance). Support below: 0.0000050 (200-day moving average and psychological barrier); 0.0000045 (Previous resistance, turned to support after breakout); 0.00000412 (June low and last line of support for bulls). --- On-chain market players and capital movements 🐋 Whale Re-enters: A SHIB whale that has been dormant for about six months has resumed accumulating, buying over 30 billion SHIB for approximately $125,000. Exchange reserves hit a historic low: SHIB reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped to about 86.1 trillion, a historic low. In recent weeks, SHIB holdings on exchanges have continued to decline, and selling pressure may be easing. Mysterious whales locked up for a long time: a whale cluster that has held about 103 trillion SHIB since 2020 (accounting for 8.51% of total supply) has not been sold off on a large scale to date. Contract shorts were washed out: During this rally, about 2,300 traders were liquidated, totaling approximately $6 million, with shorts accounting for about $5 million. --- Positive factors ✨ Burn rate surges 3200%: SHIB's burn rate surged over 3200% in the past 24 hours, about 500% weekly. The cumulative burned amount has exceeded 410.84 trillion, with the original supply down by 41.08%. Korean retail investors are buying frenziedly: SHIB's trading volume on South Korea's Upbit exchange is almost on par with Binance, with KRW trading pairs accounting for over 10% of global trading and showing a slight premium over the US dollar market. Whales resume accumulating: whales who had been dormant for half a year are buying again, combined with exchange reserves hitting historic lows—the dual tightening on the supply side creates strong supply and demand support. --- Bearish factors ⚠️ Technical indicators are overbought across the board: RSI reached 79.88, %B value as high as 1.44 (price well above the upper Bollinger Band). Historically, there is a high probability of mean reversion within 1-3 trading days after such extreme readings. Trading volume does not match gains: Binance spot trading volume is only $42.9 million. For a 32% gain, this volume is clearly low, more like amplification caused by thin liquidity. KOL Collective Silence: SHIB surged over 30% in a single day, but mainstream crypto opinion leaders collectively remained silent—historically, this silence often appears at the top of peak candles. --- Comprehensive assessment 🧐 $SHIB is currently in an extremely overbought state, following a typical short squeeze rally. Frenzied buying by Korean retail investors, whale accumulation, and a 3200% surge in burn rates have all acted as strong short-term catalysts. However, technical signals such as an RSI close to 80, a %B as high as 1.44, and mismatched trading volume and gains are all warning signs—CoinCodex forecasts a year-end target of only $0.0000034, about 18% lower than the current level. In the short term, watch if 0.0000050 can hold: If the sideways movement with shrinking volume cools the overbought indicator, there is a chance to re-attack 0.0000058-0.0000060; if it falls back quickly, the first support below is at 0.0000045. Chasing at higher prices carries great risk; it is recommended to wait for stabilization signals after a pullback. The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and does not constitute any investment advice. Please assess the risks yourself. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in the Strait navigation negotiations #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Sisters, my hands were shaking while putting on makeup today Not because of a date But because I came across a set of "slow money" data My hand trembled and my eyeliner got smudged Over at Hyperliquid HYPE cumulative burn is about 47,270,000 tokens Approximately 4.73% of the maximum supply Burning is not just a market manipulation tactic It's a real supply-side slimming down And guess what The Ethereum validator exit queue Has dropped close to zero Those who wanted to leave have mostly left Staking-side pressure is easing up Hayes is still buying ETH Recently accumulated about 3,900 tokens Putting these three things together The picture is clear Some are locking Some are burning Some are quietly moving spot assets Not the kind of hype you hear in the square About doubling tonight BTC is still hovering around 64,513 ETF recent readable data still shows outflows of about 225 million Institutional ledgers are cold On-chain slow money is relatively warm Two clocks running simultaneously Easiest to make impatient people do the opposite I used to treat staking and burning As bull market side dishes Now they feel more like ballast stones in a choppy market They don’t guarantee a rise tomorrow But they punish you for putting all your positions On weekend sentiment My hands are shaking while putting on makeup Mostly from FOMO Not a signal What should really shake is Whether you’ve confused leverage with slow money So my judgment is Slow money is suitable for base position logic Not for ultra-short-term ignition HYPE burn and ETH queue zeroing I will keep them on my mid-term watchlist Positioning will continue to favor spot and low leverage Leave the "shaking hands" to makeup Not to the open position button I glanced at today’s news, a few points to mention: #黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信，获行业集体背书 The open-source initiative has pushed AI narrative back to the center of public opinion, but the competition between computing power and model routes may not immediately turn into crypto buying pressure. Slow money prefers cash flow and lock-up structures, not the hype of an open letter. I treat this as a backdrop for tech risk appetite; main position logic still focuses on BTC levels and ETH staking supply and demand. #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 RWA perpetual volume hitting $470 billion shows that after traditional assets go on-chain, there really is a trading layer, not just a custody narrative. Like burning and staking, it belongs to the "slow structure," winning on sustainability and fees, not weekend sentiment pulses. I will track share and basis, not speculate on unknown altcoins just because of the RWA acronym. #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 Queue zeroing reduces recent concerns about concentrated exits, a plus for ETH mid-term supply and demand, but short-term still depends on overall market risk appetite. Hayes’ continued buying looks more like high-net-worth cash flow voting, not retail slogans. My approach is to treat ETH as a slow position to observe, not to chase a queue number with high leverage over the weekend. $ETH $BTC #慢钱 #质押A friend said he knew a giant whale, But that giant whale turned out to be himself When he showed off screenshots of his holdings to me, I didn't see Fuying at first glance Let's first look at funding rates Because this is the most honest thing And what happened? BTC perpetual fees are only a little over 0.01%. Converting to annual discounts isn't scary either ETH is about an order of magnitude SOL is slightly higher Nor is it a feverish crowd BTC contract positions on OKX Approximately 31,700 units This amounts to around 2 billion US dollars The quantity is still there But the temperature wasn't high This combination has a name I privately call it cold leverage The position is still hanging But no one dared to bet heavily on the direction Weekends are more likely to become fee collectors And the price Big Cake 64513 A slight increase of 0.7%. ETH1885 SOL is almost 75 The candlestick looks decent But the rates tell you This isn't just everyone going all-in together Trend in the night My friend's 'I'm the whale' Most likely, it's a hot illusion added to the cold market The screenshot is beautiful It does not equal crowding supporting the trend Once Monday's external variable flipped The first to suffer are those with low rates but heavy positions U.S.-Iran easing has eased oil prices first Risk appetite has picked up But the rate doesn't match the attack script Explain the smarter money I'd rather see Monday verification Not on Sunday nights to the max So my judgment is The futures market is now suitable for downsizing It's not suitable to leverage based on intuition Discount rates to zero and increase holdings The biggest fear is a false breakout and a real stop-loss I only kept Kocang for trial and error The main warehouse continues to focus on spot trading The phrase "I know the whale" Deleted from the trading log And by the way, let's take a look at what everyone has been talking about lately: #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 If the bill's progress is further delayed, contract trading usually cuts event gambling positions first, and the rate discount actually means the same thing: no one wants to pay a high cost of funding for an uncertain calendar. Regulatory gaps will prolong the volatility period and do not equate to a one-sided crash order. I will treat CLARITY as a source of volatility, not betting on the recess narrative. #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Geopolitical easing is most directly impacted by oil prices and risk premiums. It's reasonable for crypto to rise slightly over the weekend, but the rate not rising suggests that leverage remains cautious. If ceasefires or negotiations are repeated, it is most likely to cause back-and-forth losses on the contract side. In terms of trading, I'd rather express optimism with spot trading than push the multiplier up in a news vacuum. #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单 AI hardware orders can boost risk appetite, but it's hard for crypto funding rates to be directly raised over the weekend—the clocks for these two are fundamentally different. The heated equity narrative and cold contract sentiment are typical cross-market misalignments. I only treat the chip orders as background warmth, not as "tonight should go twenty times." $BTC $SOL #合约费率 #冷杠杆My roommate secretly opened a contract late at night and I caught her His screen was lit up I thought I was scrolling through short videos Looking closer, it was all the color of the positions I was speechless The news was even louder at the end of tonight On one side, someone moved chips to the exchange Meanwhile, someone kept inhaling on the chain Then guess what TRUMP related team Approximately $21.94 million worth of tokens Deposited into centralized exchanges The market's first reaction to this move was: Might need to be sold At least liquidity readiness Meanwhile, Some whales increased their holdings by about 1.58 million LINK over the past week Estimated to be around $13.2 million Arthur Hayes bought more than 600 ETH again Recently, the cumulative increase in holdings has exceeded 3,900 shares The same screen Selling pressure expectations and accumulation signals are side by side It's the easiest way to turn people into repeated slaps in the face My roommate sneaks it in the middle of the night The biggest fear is this kind of market division Every news story tells a story Yet the price only allows you to fluctuate within a narrow range BTC is still near 64,513 ETH1885 SOL is almost 75 Like someone deliberately tormenting their itching hands The funding rate for Bitcoin is discounted to zero This shows that Leverage isn't crazily taking sides Changes are mostly individual vouchers and address actions Not an exponential trend shift So my judgment is The tail movement needs to be examined separately Buying does not mean immediately selling the market Accumulating shares does not necessarily mean a rally tomorrow My own rule is Do not follow the celebrity's emotional address They only treat large deposits and outflows as risk warnings Positions remain more focused on spot stocks Uninstall my roommate's all-in program from my computer Back to hot topics outside the market, a few interesting things happened today: #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 Dropping out of queues means that the pressure to stake those wanting to exit is temporarily eased, and the narrative of queuing to enter is being brought up again. ETH was relatively stronger today, which aligns with some logic with the "stabilization of hedging willingness," but price elasticity is still constrained by the overall market and risk appetite. I treat queue data as a medium-term supply and demand background, not as a reason for ultra-short-term leverage. #三星Galaxy钱包将原生支持稳定币 The phone giants are pushing stablecoins into system wallets, signaling a payment gateway, more useful than posting a hundred more popular science articles. Actual implementation will depend on which regions, which coins, and how fees are cut; in the short term, it's unlikely to directly explode public chain miscellaneous coins. I'm more focused on whether stablecoin circulation and on-chain activity will subsequently rise, rather than chasing concept stocks first. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? The aftermath of tech giants' earnings reports is still anchoring risk assets. The fact that crypto saw isolated small fluctuations over the weekend does not mean equity risk has been fully released. If late-session movements overlap with rapid reporting narratives, mismatches like "full story but empty positions" are most likely to occur. I chose to treat the earnings report as a Monday linkage variable, recording only the rally today, not chasing the rally. $ETH $BTC #尾盘异动 #鲸鱼7月26日WLFI全天震荡缓慢下行，无像样反弹，日内高点0.0572美元，日内新低0.0548美元，24小时累计跌幅4.12%，现价0.055美元；历史高点0.46美元，累计最大跌幅82.7%，7.23拉高0.068后暴力砸盘，回到震荡区间0.055-0.057阴跌，无意向上拉盘，高处接盘的散户解套已无望 - 链上筹码：总供应量1000亿枚，当前流通仅31.77%，剩余近70%团队、机构、特朗普家族筹码分多年线性解锁，持续新增供给压制价格；金库持有73亿枚WLFI，账面浮亏超3.4亿美元，存在长期变现预期。 WLFI宣称DeFi去中心化，但项目方合约内置黑名单后门，可单方面冻结任意用户钱包代币。 此前项目方直接冻结孙宇晨29.9亿枚WLFI代币，引发巨额诉讼纠纷，市场彻底质疑资产安全；散户、机构担心自身持仓随时被冻结，长期持续减仓出逃，无长期资金锁仓持有。 治理权完全被特朗普关联实体掌控，代币持有者投票权上限仅5%，项目方拥有一票否决权，完全违背DeFi共识，机构持续规避配置。 WLFI本质依托特朗普政治IP募资，总募资14亿美元，特朗普家族提前锁定约10亿现金收益，无需币价上涨即可完不是胆小是Coinbase今天这操作太猛了他们把永续合约正式搬进美国了就从$BTC和$ETH的纳米合约开始24小时滚动自带杠杆追踪现货价格没有到期日对就是那个托起全球九成加密交易的金融怪兽现在光明正大踏进合规市场了我盯着屏幕看了半天说实话手指是抖的之前想玩永续还得折腾到离岸交易所现在本土就能搞某机构监管资金费率自动结算这不就是给美国散户开了个合法赌场吗CME直接急了当天就起诉想把它按死老牌交易所慌了因为永续合约一旦落地谁还玩传统期货？没有到期日不用反复移仓流动性吸过去就是一瞬间的事我倒是觉得CME越急越说明这东西真有杀伤力但咱们小散要想想以前在离岸交易所爆仓好歹能甩锅说平台黑现在合规了爆了就是真爆了清算引擎不会跟你讲情面永续这玩意是把双刃剑它在海外市场已经证明了自己多能吸金也证明了自己多能割人尤其是情绪盘高杠杆一上方向反了十分钟就带走你合规清算链上大逃杀以前是暗地里的游戏现在搬到台面上来了机构进场肯定是利好流动性但对普通玩家来说我觉得先稳住不追高不接针等市场消化完这波冲击再说姐妹们稳住这场合并不是一天两天的事让庄家先打咱们看清楚了再跟 #加密行情回暖，比特币走高 #芯片股反弹，美股空头#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 7月25日，Trump下令暂停对伊朗空袭。 13天连续打击，每天批一次作战计划。第14天，计划摆在桌上，没签。 几个小时前，阿曼代表团刚到德黑兰。谈的是霍尔木兹海峡重新通航。卡塔尔海事局动作更快——直接宣布7月26日起全面恢复所有海运。 地区国家已经在确认风险降低了。 但Trump原话是：拿不到"100%想要的"，"绝对考虑恢复全面战争"。 所以不是停战。是暂停。两个词差了一整个和平协议。 $CL 直接反应——单日 -4.33%，从$100上方回落。$BZ -4.47%。 就是……$100附近做多原油，半夜Trump发一条消息，开盘跳空3%。这个品种的波动不是技术面说了算，是一个人的一句话说了算。 社区有人做 CL 10x 多，成本 85.14，现价刚好卡在成本线上。这个位置很尴尬：平了怕周末谈判出协议油价崩，不平怕 Trump 半夜又发一条。 有个细节我看到的时候愣了一下——参谋长联席会议主席私下警告过，扩大行动会危险地消耗爱国者拦截导弹库存。社区里有人说得更直白：导弹几乎打光了，不得不停。 跟交易一模一样——你不是被市场打败的，你是被保证金打败的。 油价现在的核心问题就两个：口头停火能不能变成书面协议、海峡航运能不能恢复。出书面协议，油价往$90以下走。谈崩了，$100以上继续拉。 有社区观点认为根子在11月中期选举。油价推高通胀，通胀推高物价，物价影响选票。"所有政策都是为了选票，所有行情都是情绪波动"——这句话不好听，但解释力够强。 $CL 在$100这个位置，上下都靠 Trump 一条消息，没法用技术面定价。在周末谈判出结果前，不赌方向。 周末阿曼谈判能不能出书面协议，卡塔尔海运恢复的实际执行情况——这两个问题会在周一亚洲盘直接定价到 CL/BZ 的开盘价里。盯住就行。 没有协议，空袭随时恢复。$100的油价不会自己消失。 --- 以上个人观点，不构成投资建议。Today is the market of "narrative remains, but capital needs validation." Crypto prices did not crash, but ETF outflows and the Fear index indicate weak risk appetite; The AI community has shifted from product entry point competition to skepticism about agent security and ROI; The AI capex review of the US stock market will, in reverse, affect Hong Kong tech and crypto beta. If Hong Kong stocks are under pressure along with U.S. growth stocks, it indicates that funds are contracting in duration; If it resists declines, it shows that Asian funds have independent risk appetite. The forecasting market is turning into a cross-market sentiment dashboard: not for shouting orders, but for seeing which narrative retail investors and arbitrage funds are betting on.AI faith collapsed overnight. Nasdaq was wiped out, tech giants hit the earnings market during earnings season with collective backlash over AI spending, and China's DeepSeek ignited a powder keg. But look at crypto: Bitcoin didn't budge, SHIB surged 20% in a single day, the money didn't leave, just changed the table. Outline - 💥 AI Faith Collapses, Nasdaq Bloodbathed - 🛡️ Where Does the Money Escape? Dow, Gold, and BTC - 🐕 Inside Crypto: BTC Rock Solid, Memes Surging - 🧠 Who Is Chasing SHIB and DOGE? - 🗺️ Safe Harbor Logic Amid Macro Storms Today's Snapshot $BTC 64,466, +0.57% $ETH 1,884, +1.06% $QQQ -1.12%, $SPY +0.10% $DXY +0.03%, $GLD +0.10% $IBIT -0.82% VIX 18.57, -0.64% $USO 136.69, -2.01% Dow 51,947.25, +0.46% I. AI Belief Collapse, The Nasdaq was wiped out 💥—the scene the market least wanted to see still happened. The collective rebellion against AI spending has spread from earnings calls to market shares, with the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) plunging 1.12% today as tech giants led the market downward. The news headline read: "Big Tech Earnings Sl."#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 以太坊验证者退出队列清零：门开着，没人走 退出通道，空了。 beaconcha.in上的数据冷冰冰：退出队列归零，想解锁随时走，秒到账。 而另一头，248万枚ETH正排队进场，塞在入口，平均等43天。 半年前这条通道堵着260万枚，市场议论纷纷。现在退路通畅，反而没人迈那一步。 两股人流曾在通道里擦肩而过，互道珍重，各走各路。如今擦肩的人没了——旧玩家不走了，新玩家还在涌进来。 质押总量4090万枚，占供应量33.55%，88.5万个验证者在线。方向已经切了：净流出翻成净流入。 你问为什么？ 看收益率：2.64%。 放2023年能打，放在眼下，隔壁美债4.5%，油价在三位数挂着，通胀压着FOMC喘不过气。2.64%在这个环境里，算收益还是算信仰，全看你怎么定义“机会成本”。 那问题来了：248万枚等着进场——谁的钱？ 一部分是机构配置，他们看的是ETH的美元敞口，不是年化。2.64%只是bonus，底层逻辑是“我需要在网络上占一个位”。 另一部分是海外资金，绕过合规卡口，抢在CLARITY落地前完成布局——管它明年法案长什么样，先站上节点再说。 两类人的共识是：2.64%不是来赚钱的，是来买位置的。 但ETH的价格如果拉到某个临界点，退出门一秒变拥挤。现在没人走，不是不想走，是价格没到那个让人想走的数。 油价在等协议，法案在等条款被删，ETH质押在等价格给出新答案。 都在等。 但至少现在，方向清晰：退出的门开着，没人跨出去。进场的队排着，没人退出来。 等风来？风已经在质押池里了。After showering and lying in bed at night, I watched the market downward and saw BTC fall from 66,900 to 63,700 this round, then slowly recover to around 64,500. I feel the current market state is quite interesting. Those who have been waiting for a correction for days ago may have really found their chance. Bottom-fishing funds entering near 63,666 have indeed secured a good position. BTC is currently fluctuating around 64,500. If you follow a short-term perspective, some may consider placing a 3x leveraged limit long position, with a stop-loss at 63,500 and targets above 65,800 and 66,300. However, from my own perspective at this level, I wouldn't blindly chase long positions just because it dropped; I still need to consider several signals. First, the 63,666 area is quite critical because it rebounded after testing twice on July 20 and July 24, indicating some short-term capital support here. Second, the current funding rate is only about 0.004%, with no signs of overheating in the long market. At the same time, OI saw a net inflow of about $110 million today, and ETFs have continuously attracted funds for seven consecutive days, totaling nearly $1 billion. These figures show that the market is not entirely without capital attention. Of course, if you're not used to leverage, I think placing spot in batches is much more comfortable. The biggest risk in a contract is not directional judgment, but leverage turning normal volatility into forced exit. Now let's look at the surrounding environment. Last night, U.S. tech stocks came under pressure, with the Nasdaq falling 0.64%; A-shares also performed weakly, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.61%, and the Hong Kong tech sector also showing weakness, with overall market risk appetite clearly declining. Additionally, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude toward around $100, raising the market's probability of a rate hike in September to 61%. According to traditional logic, these factors would put pressure on risk assets. Interestingly, BTC did not continue to weaken sharply, instead holding steady near 64,500. My own feeling is that the market is now undergoing a wave of emotional cleansing. Funds that chased previous gains were shaken out, and those hoping to buy at low prices began to re-observe, and the market actually entered a more balanced state. Technically, the 66,924 on July 21 and 66,711 on July 22 have connected, forming a short-term downward resistance line. Although the slope is not very large, it does limit the rebound potential. The good news is that the support at 63,666 has already been tested twice. Currently, BTC is trading sideways around 64,500, with open interest (OI) turning positive for three consecutive days and funding rates dropping from 0.006% to 0.004%. My understanding is that some of the leveraged sentiment in the market has already been released, unlike the crowded phase of chasing rallies at high levels. If it rebounds to around 66,300, I personally prefer to observe first and even reduce positions in batches, rather than blindly hoping for further gains. Although the MACD green bars are shortening, they have not yet formed a clear golden cross, so there is no need to aggressively advance too early. The flow of funds is also worth attention. BTC saw a net OI inflow of about $114 million today, marking three consecutive days of positive gains; ETH also saw a net inflow of about $71 million. Both sides have capital participating, but BTC is relatively more stable. In terms of fees, BTC is currently moderately bullish, with no obvious overheating; ETH has even turned negative, indicating that bears are paying the cost of funding to the bulls. Now let's look at ETH. ETH fell from $1,959 to $1,846, then rebounded to around $1,881, showing greater volatility and greater resilience than BTC. Notably, the ETH funding rate has become **-0.0019%**, meaning short sellers must pay long positions funding every 8 hours. Historically, such situations sometimes serve as rebound signals. But I think ETH's current problems are also obvious, with a cumulative pullback of about 5% this week, and market confidence has not fully recovered. So if I were to do contracts, I personally would still prioritize BTC, which is a relatively stable product. If I want to bet on an ETH rebound, I tend to favor a light position near $1,870, with a focus on the risk level below $1,840. Overall, I think the market is not simply bullish or bearish but waiting for new catalysts. There is capital holding support at the bottom, but the pressure above is also real. For me, the most important thing right now is to control my position size. Don't let a slight rebound make you leverage too much. #OKX星球话题来啦 $BTC $ETH $KAITO is printing strong momentum with solid buy pressure behind it. As long as volume stays healthy, this rally has room to run. Trade Setup: Entry point : Wait for breakout confirmation Target: +25% Stop Loss : Below support zone NFA. Size responsibly and manage risk. #EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit Historically, the best return for $QQQ in July each year was 12.55% in 2020, and the worst rate was -1.68% in 2024. So far, QQQ's return rate in July this year is around -7%, marking the worst return in history. In the past 15 years, only one year was negative; the other years had decent returns. I still have a feeling that next week will be a pretty intense one. The data will all experience significant corrections...... $QQQ If it drops a bit further, it will enter my batting and set throwing space.📊 $LAB 爆仓速览 爆仓规模 · 1小时：$3,110.23 · 4小时：$2.42万 · 12小时：$10.34万 · 24小时：$14.21万 多空分布 周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比 1h $83.70 $3,026.53 2.7% 4h $1.67万 $7,408.19 69.3% 12h $8.63万 $1.70万 83.5% 24h $11.85万 $2.36万 83.4% 多空解读 1小时空头爆仓占绝对主导（97.3%），但规模极小；4小时起多头爆仓骤然碾压空头（69.3%~83.5%），方向在1-4小时间剧烈逆转，转为持续单边下跌；12小时和24小时多头占比稳定在83%，杀多行情贯穿后程。最终胜出方：空头——价格呈单边持续下行，多头连续止损出清。 时间分布 · 1小时占24小时的 2.19% · 4小时占24小时的 17.0% · 12小时占24小时的 72.8% 爆仓集中于12小时周期（超七成），说明主跌浪在12小时内集中爆发；24小时总量是12小时的1.37倍，后12小时仍有增量但强度减弱。当前处于空头主导的持续下跌尾声，多头力量已基本出清，短期需等待量能萎缩信号。 一句话解读 $LAB 24小时多头爆仓$11.85万占总量83.4%，12小时集中爆发主跌浪，空头完胜。 🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日 今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。 📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了 两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。 谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。 特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。 信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。 📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局 加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。 根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。 Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。 🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息 当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。 暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。 信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。 💎 总结 三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 Quant has become a systemic variable in China's socio-economic system. In the first quarter of 2026, quant accounted for over 35% of the average daily turnover in A-shares, with daily trading volumes often reaching hundreds of billions to over a trillion yuan. Quant is now the core force directly involved in price discovery, liquidity, and volatility structures. Any state apparatus, once it realizes that a significant portion of market pricing power is in the hands of algorithms and computing power, will instinctively tighten for control. Fang Xinghai's investigation is just one of the triggers; he represents the previous open-minded approach of liberalizing quantitative trading, introducing short selling, and market-oriented tools. As soon as he fell, the space that had been tacitly allowed instantly narrowed. The essence of regulation is to re-imprison quantitative metrics in a controllable cage. JPMorgan's move is focused on options-style hedging. Earlier this year, they formed a dedicated China quantitative trading and research team, aiming to accelerate electronic trading and compete with non-bank giants like Citadel and Jane Street. Now, people are concentrated in Singapore, retaining access capabilities, but core models and talent are placed where rules are clear, political friction is low, and data and infrastructure are more user-friendly. Singapore has already become their clear Asia-Pacific Center of Quantitative Excellence. Stripping unpredictable policy risks off the balance sheet. Truly high-end institutional decisions have never been about risk-adjusted expected returns—whether it's still worth placing core assets here China is actively abandoning path dependence on efficient markets. Mature markets accept quant as an efficiency engine, but the cost is that retail investors are systematically at a disadvantage in information and speed. China has repeatedly chosen another path: using administrative means to suppress unfair advantages, in exchange for stable retail sentiment and controllable narrative. As a result, A-shares have long remained in a retail-dominated model characterized by "high turnover, high volatility, and low pricing efficiency." With such a high proportion of quantitative assets, continuing to wear the tightening spell is essentially telling global capital that the market structure here prioritizes political and social goals, rather than capital allocation efficiency. 
Talent outflow, model relocation, and the shift of core R&D focus southward are natural outcomes of this choice. Singapore and Hong Kong are riding the wave of this spillover effect #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? Looking at the overall pace of U.S. stocks throughout 2026, no week's information density, market weight, or pricing influence can rival the just-started final trading week of July. This is truly the most prestigious Super Week of the year. Four major macro data points—the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision, the preliminary US Q2 GDP, core PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index—were all released together, combined with the four trillion-dollar AI tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon releasing their earnings intensively. Macro policies, inflation fundamentals, economic growth, and AI industry profitability logic will all complete centralized pricing within a week. The more than half year of AI market debate, expectations of high interest rates to persist, and the valuation battles among U.S. growth stocks have all reached their final showdowns. 1. Market Review This Week: AI Valuation Logic Completely Changed, Market Enters a New Pricing Phase The recently concluded trading week saw a slight index pullback in U.S. stocks and deep divergence among tech stocks. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped sharply by 2.1%, with growth stocks showing clear signs of pressure. The core trigger for this round of adjustment is no longer simply disappointing performance, but a fundamental shift in market pricing logic. Previously, the market blindly embraced the AI track, where as long as companies increased their investment in AI computing power and laid out AI infrastructure, they could gain a valuation premium. However, after the latest financial reports from Google and Tesla dropped sharply, the entire market completely reversed its thinking: high growth in AI has become a market consensus, and the only real concern for capital right now is sky-high pricesThe banking industry is the core force in lobbying against the CLARITY Act. On the surface, it claims to protect consumers, but at its core, it's about users transferring their deposits out of banks for higher returns. The bank's profit model is to absorb low-interest or even interest-free deposits to lend and profit. In the past, users had no better financial options and only wanted to keep their funds within the system. Once the crypto sector offers higher returns, this profit foundation will be shaken, and the advantage banks rely on policy barriers to hold will be broken. Bill progress stalled: Some Republican lawmakers believe the text needs further revisions before supporting it, while Democratic lawmakers who originally favored crypto opposed it because it does not restrict the Trump family's crypto-related revenues. The demands of both sides are completely at odds, resulting in regulatory rules remaining blank for a long time. Without clear regulation, emerging crypto companies find it difficult to enter compliantly, and there is a lack of reasonable sources for public funds. What the banking industry truly protects is not the interests of depositors, but the current vacuum in this regulatory vacuum. Their fear that the crypto industry will break the existing pattern precisely shows that the traditional financial system has long used barriers to trap ordinary savers' wealth choices. #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Favorable Moments or Shortcoming? 下午摸鱼刷盘的时候，发现 SHIB 今天的表现确实挺显眼，一天涨了 9.49%，最新价格来到 0.000005210 美元，如果从 0.00000423 一带算起，这波反弹已经接近 20% 了。 不过我没有第一时间去追，而是先翻了下链上数据，感觉这波上涨背后还是有几个值得关注的变化。 首先是交易所的筹码在继续减少。 过去 24 小时，有超过 113 亿枚 SHIB 流出交易所，整体净流量约为 -1450 亿枚 SHIB，说明链上呈现明显的净流出状态。同时，交易所储备已经下降到 86.1 万亿枚，越来越接近市场常提到的 100 万亿枚 心理关口。 我的理解是，交易所可流通、可卖出的筹码减少，对短期供给端确实会形成一定支撑，但供给收紧只是影响价格的因素之一，还要结合资金是否持续流入来看。 另外一个变化是销毁速度也在提升。 过去 24 小时，SHIB 销毁率激增 350%；过去 7 天累计销毁 4423 万枚 SHIB，相比前一周增长 32.63%。这些数据说明社区仍在持续推进销毁机制，对市场情绪会有一定帮助。 消息面也有新的催化。 随着日本加密 ETF 相关立法持续推进，SHIB 已经被纳入 日本 JVCEA 绿色名单，一定程度上增加了它在合规层面的市场叙事，这对长期关注日本市场的资金来说，算是一个偏积极的信号。 不过我觉得，现在也不能只看利好。 从技术结构来看，SHIB 目前仍然运行在 50 日、100 日和 200 日 EMA 下方，说明中长期趋势还没有真正扭转。另外，链上数据显示，大约 707 个钱包控制着 94% 的供应量，巨鲸持仓集中度依然很高。 还有一点容易被忽略，虽然最近销毁量明显增加，但放在约 589 万亿枚 的流通供应面前，这部分销毁规模依然比较有限，短期更偏向改善市场情绪，而不是彻底改变供需关系。 接下来我会重点关注 0.00000520—0.00000530 美元 这一带的阻力。 如果后续能够伴随成交量有效放大并突破，上方可以继续观察 0.00000550—0.00000600 美元 区域；如果冲高受阻，则还是要留意 0.00000418—0.00000420 美元 这一带是否能够形成第一道支撑。 综合来看，我更倾向把这波行情理解为供应收紧、销毁增加以及板块联动共同推动的一次技术性修复，距离真正意义上的趋势反转，我觉得还需要更多成交量和持续资金流入来验证，所以我暂时不会因为一天的上涨就改变自己的交易节奏。 以上只是我结合盘面和公开数据做的个人观察，不构成任何投资建议，交易还是要结合自己的风险承受能力做好仓位管理。 $BTC $ETH $SHIB #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 闺蜜说她男朋友在大厂上班炒币亏了一套房 我听完第一反应不是同情 是打开跌幅榜 想确认今天到底谁在流血 结果呢 大盘并没在崩 BTC 64513 二十四小时反而是涨的 百分之零点七一 ETH更亮一点 到了1885附近 涨约百分之一点五 SOL 74.95 也有百分之一点四左右 所以这不是「全面杀跌日」 是结构分化日 跟得上缓和与资金叙事的 先抬头 跟不上的 继续阴跌给人添堵 周五ETF那档还记着约二点二五亿美金净流出 账本偏冷 可周末现货偏暖 这种错位最容易骗人 你会以为反转确认了 其实只是空头挤一点 多头也没敢把杠杆拉满 资金费率几乎贴零 更像大家都不想过夜赌方向 跌幅榜上的名字 多半是叙事退潮和流动性抽走 不是大饼带头砸穿 我闺蜜那句「亏了一套房」 放在这种结构里特别真 赚的时候觉得自己懂轮动 亏的时候才发现 自己买的是弹性 不是Beta 所以我的判断是 今天别用「跌幅榜情绪」去定性整个市场 先分清是指数问题还是个币问题 指数还在六万四千附近磨 个币杀的是拥挤交易 我只考虑把弱的换成更干净的现货 不在分化市里用高杠杆去赌V反 接下来瞄一眼最近有什么热点，随便唠几句： #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单 存储双雄拿AI大单的消息还在广场转，风险偏好先在股权叙事里加温，再慢半拍渗到加密风险资产。大饼小涨更像情绪外溢，不是芯片订单直接兑换成买盘。我会把这条当风险偏好背景音，不拿个币去映射每一条供应链新闻。 #黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信，获行业集体背书 开源倡议听着热血，盘面上AI叙事已经反复定价过几轮，短线更敏感的是算力资本开支能不能兑现。加密这边AI标签币弹性大、逻辑薄，适合当情绪温度计，不适合当主仓。我更愿意看算力与稳定币支付有没有真实需求，而不是又追一波口号。 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 四千七百亿的月成交听起来吓人，说明代币化资产的交易层真有人在用，不只是路演PPT。可量能暴增不等于你钱包里的杂币会跟涨，结构化产品吃的是费率与基差。我会把RWA当中期主线跟踪，短线仍以大饼位置和杠杆拥挤度为先。 $BTC $ETH #跌幅解读 #结构分化My dad asked me what DeFi is, and I said, don't worry about it, I'll help you buy it My dad came to ask again tonight I just looked at the board and could only give a dry laugh Traditional markets are closed on Sundays But Da Bing was bouncing around on his own I quickly glanced at the message The easing winds from the US and Iran have risen again The previous two crude oils clearly fell back Negotiations for the opening of the strait have also made progress Then guess what BTC 64513 In 24 hours, it rose by 0.71%. The missile narrative is a bit looser Oil prices fell first The currency is first green US stocks will have to wait until Monday to open and verify their results This collaboration is a bit twisted In the past, whenever I heard about tensions in the Middle East, Everyone was just waiting to smash the price and put on a show Now, pricing is more like the Xiansong product channel Risk assets will find a way out over the weekend On Friday, the ETF still saw a net outflow of about $225 million The cumulative net inflow was about 81.2 billion yuan Institutional ledgers are not so romantic But the spot just doesn't go along with the panic script The open interest in BTC contracts on OKX is about 31,700 units This amounts to around 2 billion US dollars The funding rate is close to zero The weekend volume is also not exaggerated It looks more like a sideways trading loss It's not a trend ignite So my judgment is Before Monday's open, don't formulate 'oil drop = US stocks must rally = crypto must surge.' Easing only reduces tail risk premiums Whether it's real or not depends on whether US stock futures and crude oil are confirmed together I'd rather see the reaction with the in-stock stock Don't use weekend sentiment to leverage it Looking through today's plate, there are a few interesting points: #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? Earnings season is still reflecting on the two reports from Google and Tesla股价从200美元跌到110美元，曾经"稀缺"的逻辑已经被彻底打破。7月底首批20%员工持股解锁只是开始，8月6日预计有约9.1亿股可进入流通，而此前真正可交易的流通股仅占总股本4%左右——供给量即将翻倍甚至更多。 对大批行权成本极低的员工而言，账面浮盈即便在110美元依然丰厚。房贷、教育、资产配置，变现是刚性需求。更不用说当前空头持仓已占流通股约30%，做空资金提前布局，等着接这些"带血筹码"。 但风险往往酝酿机会。如果8月初财报后股价出现加速下杀，或者急跌后出现明显缩量筑底形态，那大概率就是恐慌盘与解锁抛压集中释放的阶段。届时，低价筹码可能出现。我会等那个时刻。⚠️2024到2025这波行情里，山寨币的主升行情基本都撑不过三个月，随后普遍回撤八成以上。短短窗口期里只有少数人及时止盈，多数人被套，本质是把炒作故事当成了长期价值信仰。 山寨行情生命周期极短，是多重因素叠加导致的： 首先山寨币买单资金仅限圈内存量，没有外部增量资金进场；其次它属于行情轮动的末端，大部分资金早已被主流币分流；加上项目代币解锁、项目方砸盘，抛压源源不断；本轮ETF还分流了主流币资金，土狗赛道又瓜分了场内存量流动性。 后续我更看好DeFi板块，它的行情周期同样会维持在三个月左右。#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🚀 RWA perpetual monthly trading volume reaches 470 billion, surging 450% in just half a year! This is not a celebration at the end of a bull market, but a signal for the start of a new track. Tokenized stocks, commodities, and even SpaceX are being "perpetuated" on-chain. In June, just OKX and the other three platforms captured over 80% of the market share, while SpaceX made $66 billion in a single month. 🧠 My three observations: ❶ Not speculative repackaging, but capital seeking "on-chain alphas" The low volatility of traditional assets + the high leverage of perpetual contracts naturally makes them suitable for market makers and event-driven traders. 66 billion is not something retail investors can accumulate; institutions are testing the waters. ❷ Tokenized stocks surged 7 times—who's next? I believe it is the government bond income rights — on-chain interest-bearing assets + RWA compliance, which is a trillion-yuan blue ocean. Pre-IPO liquidity is poor, foreign exchange regulatory barriers are high, and government bonds are most likely to burst first. ❸ You haven't made a deal yet? What are you waiting for? Liquidity and other factors? Regulation? and other user-friendly UIs? —These are improving rapidly, while the first movers are already taking the premium. #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 High prosperity and high volatility in storage stocks: Which is more worth watching, Micron, SanDisk, or SK Hynix? The expansion of AI computing power is reshaping the competitive landscape of the storage industry. In the past, investors viewed memory and flash as highly cyclical basic components; price increases often meant supply-demand imbalances, while price declines meant inventory buildup. With the advent of the AI era, HBM, high-capacity server DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs have begun to become core devices in data centers, giving storage manufacturers new growth opportunities. However, the recent performance of storage stocks reminds investors that a positive industry fundamental does not necessarily mean stock prices can continue to rise. On July 24, Micron fell about 7% in a single day, SanDisk dropped about 11%, and SK Hynix's Korean domestic stock dropped about 8%. Previously, all three companies experienced significant gains, but the recent pullback feels more like profit-taking and valuation revaluation rather than a sudden disappearance of demand. AI continues to expand storage demand AI servers require large amounts of HBM to improve GPU data transfer efficiency, and DRAM is also needed to store running data. As model scale increases, data centers will need to deploy more SSDs to store training data, model files, caches, and inference results. Market research firm Gartner predicts that DRAM prices could rise by 125% in 2026, NAND Flash prices by 234%, and storage price pressures may continue beyond 2027. Gartner Industry Forecast TrendForce also holds a bullish outlook for Q2 2026, expecting traditional DRAM contract prices to rise 58% to 63% quarter-over-quarter, and NAND Flash prices to increase 70% to 75%. Storage manufacturers are shifting more capacity toward HBM, server memory, and enterprise-grade SSDs, causing supply contractions for storage products used in regular PCs and mobile phones. TrendForce price prediction for $MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK This set of data shows the industry is still in a strong cycle, but it also raises a question: how long can high prices last? Micron: The most complete product and the highest expectations Micron also operates DRAM, HBM, NAND, and enterprise-grade SSDs. It can benefit from the memory demands of AI servers and also from expanding storage capacity in data centers. Micron's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached $41.46 billion, setting a new company record. The company also provided a stronger outlook for the fourth quarter, stating that HBM4 has entered a phase of high-volume shipments, HBM4E is under development, and mass production is expected in 2027. Micron's financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 Another advantage of Micron comes from its domestic manufacturing footprint in the United States. The company plans to expand its U.S. DRAM capacity, which will not only help reduce supply chain risks but may also secure policy support and long-term orders from large customers. However, Micron's stock price has fully reflected the industry's recovery and growing AI demand. In the future, the market will not only look at revenue growth, but also on whether profit margins can be maintained, whether capital expenditures spiral out of control, and when new capacity will come online. If the company's performance only meets expectations, the stock price may still come under pressure. SanDisk: Betting on NAND and Enterprise SSDs SanDisk's business focus is on NAND Flash and SSDs. Compared to Micron and SK Hynix, SanDisk has less direct involvement in HBM, but is more sensitive to NAND prices and enterprise SSD demand. SanDisk's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached $5.95 billion, a 97% quarter-over-quarter increase, with data center business up 233%. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion. SanDisk's financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 AI data centers need more than just GPUs and HBMs. The datasets generated by model training need to be stored long-term, inference services need to frequently read model files, and caching systems require larger SSD capacity. As long as data centers continue to expand, enterprise SSDs have strong growth potential. SanDisk's characteristic is its high earnings flexibility. When NAND prices rise, company profits may grow rapidly; However, when supply and demand shift, profits may also decline rapidly. It is more like a highly volatile storage price target, suitable for investors who are optimistic about the NAND cycle and can also tolerate larger drawdowns. SK Hynix: HBM is the most competitive feature SK Hynix's strongest business at present remains HBM. In the first quarter of 2026, the company's revenue reached 52.58 trillion KRW, operating profit reached 37.61 trillion KRW, and an operating margin of 72%, setting a new record. SK Hynix's Q1 2026 financial report SK Hynix has advantages in HBM products, customer relationships, and mass production experience. As AI applications expand from model training to real-time inference, the company's growth has also begun to extend from HBM to server DRAM, eSSD, and other high-capacity storage products. But competition from HBM is intensifying. Micron and Samsung are both increasing capacity and yield, and customers may also reduce procurement risks by bringing in more suppliers. SK Hynix's current high profit margins are built on technological leadership and tight supply. If competitors close the gap or HBM prices begin to fall, the company's valuation could face double pressure.我妈的同事退休金全买了比特币，现在天天请我们吃饭 上周末家庭聚餐的时候她一直在说 「年轻人就要胆子大」 但我想说的是这个位置其实很多人的胆量已经被磨没了 资金费率显示BTC和ETH仍然处于看跌区间 什么意思呢 就是做多的人要付钱给做空的人 说明市场上大部分人还是偏空的 但奇怪的是BTC这周不但没跌反而涨了0.6% 然后你猜怎么着 这种「看跌但不跌」的行情其实是最考验人的 如果你的分析告诉你应该看多 但市场情绪一直在说看空 你会信哪个 我自己的经验是 跟着数据走不要跟着情绪走 5个买入信号对0个卖出信号 这个数据不会骗人 虽然ETF在流出225M 但BTC价格不跌 说明OTC和现货买盘在接盘 这是机构在悄悄吸筹的信号 另外还有一个心理博弈的点 BitMart事件周末发酵了 CEO说自己也是被通知要停运的 MSX创始人又想收购 这种混乱反而说明有些人在低位捡便宜 敢在恐慌时接盘的人往往是大赢家 所以我的判断是 这个位置不要在情绪上被别人带着走 资金费率看跌≠价格会跌 有时候大家都看跌的时候反而是最好的建仓窗口 等所有人都看涨了Trump halted the airstrikes, oil prices plummeted, and $BTC actually rose Thirteen consecutive days of airstrikes stopped just like that. On the 24th, Trump directly ordered that no new strikes against Iran would be launched that day. Following the news, WTI crude oil plunged nearly 4% in grey market trading, while Brent dropped more than 3%. BTC, on the other hand, has risen from around 63,800 to around 64,460. The logic makes sense—oil prices fall→ inflation expectations cool, → risk assets catch their breath. But don't get too happy too soon. Trump's exact words: "If we cannot get 100% of what we want from Iran, we will absolutely consider resuming a full-scale war." "And the Strait of Hormuz has not yet reopened. In the short term, you can gamble for a rebound, but set stop-losses. Don't mistake tactical pauses for strategic peace. Let's talk in the comments—do you think this rebound can last? Or is it just the calm before the storm? Tech giants collectively pull back: Why did these stocks all fall today? Looking at the market today, a glaring red color was a stark display—Micron Technology (MU) plunged over 7%, Intel (INTC) plunged 12%, SanDisk (SNDK) fell nearly 11%, Tesla (TSLA) also fell 2.2%, and even Nvidia (NVDA) couldn't stay unscathed, slipping nearly 1%. Both the semiconductor and new energy vehicle sectors have cooled off. In my view, this adjustment is an inevitable profit-taking + sector rotation. Since the beginning of this year, AI concept stocks have surged dramatically, with chip giants like Nvidia already exhausting some of their optimistic expectations. Recently, the market has begun to worry that AI capital expenditure growth may slow down, with Micron and Intel, as representatives of memory and traditional chips, naturally bearing the brunt. Intel's biggest drop may reflect not only industry pressure but also ongoing market doubts about its competitiveness and transformation progress. Tesla, on the other hand, was dragged down by overall weakness in its new energy vehicle sector, with delivery data and Robotaxi narratives temporarily struggling to boost confidence. Looking deeper, this is the normal breath of a high-valuation sector. Tech stocks have risen so fiercely that capital needs a breather, and shifting to other undervalued sectors is also reasonable. On the macro front, interest rate expectations, inflation data, or geopolitical factors may also exacerbate the decline in short-term risk appetite. Personal view: Short-term pullbacks shouldn't be overly pessimistic, especially for NVIDIA, whose fundamentals remain strong and long-term AI demand remains. What truly needs to be watched out are Intel and some follower stocks; if there is no substantial improvement, the correction could be even deeper. But for high-quality stocks, this is often a "shakeout" rather than a "trend reversal."Changxin hasn't officially opened yet, but long and short positions on X are already fighting. Some are preparing to go all-in on 300,000 yuan in flash loans, while public addresses have held over 13 million USD in short positions; In the Chinese-speaking region, discussions about how much profit can be made from winning the lottery, while in the English-speaking region, the pre-market contract for Hyperliquid has already priced Changxin's valuation close to 3 trillion yuan. I compiled 31 tweets in both Chinese and English, checking issuance data, financial performance, industry news, pre-market prices, and market rumors one by one. I'm not going to guess a simple answer to a rise or fall first. What really needs to be answered is: How much is Changxin really worth? How was the 3 trillion yuan expectation formed? Which high-traffic news can be trusted? After the market opens, which data should we keep an eye on? 1. 31 tweets, but the most discussed topic isn't Changxin's technology. These 31 tweets are not a market-wide poll. I filter content with high pre-IPO views or those that represent a certain type of viewpoint. Among them, 20 tweets were in Chinese, and 11 were in English or other languages; 22 views exceeded 50,000, 14 views exceeded 100,000, and 9 exceeded 200,000. Categorizing them, the results are straightforward: - 10 discusses trading plans and retail sentiment; - 9 discusses valuation and pre-market prices; - 7 discussing companies and industries; - 5 are rumors or commercial promotions. Nearly two-thirds of the content discusses price, position, and "how much can be made?" What the company truly achieves is not the traffic center. The most viewed account is the English account [@zephyr_z9]. The problem is, the latter ones🛰 金十雷达 | 21:49 主题：霍尔木兹 据金十快讯，【沙特媒体：伊朗方面称并未退出谈判，愿在日内瓦多地与美国继续谈判】金十数据7月26日讯，综合阿拉伯卫星电视台与沙特媒体哈达斯报道，伊朗已告知巴基斯坦官员，伊朗并未退出谈判，而是暂时中止了。伊朗重申了在停滞阶段恢复谈判的必要性、表示拒绝在霍尔木兹海峡开辟新航道。此外，伊朗已向巴基斯坦确认，愿意在日内瓦、卡塔尔多哈或伊斯兰堡继续（与美国）进行谈判；并要求恢复关于… 观察视角：这类消息先看是否影响油价、美元或美股风险偏好，再观察BTC/ETH跟随强弱。 验证点：若后续没有价格、成交量或避险资产确认，就按背景变量处理，不把标题当交易信号。 仅作市场观察，不构成投资建议。$BASED — RECOVERY STRUCTURE FORMING BASED is trading near $0.08386 after a moderate intraday pullback. The present price area could become a short-term recovery zone if buyers defend support and begin producing stronger volume. TRADE SETUP EP: $0.0831 – $0.0843 TP1: $0.0864 TP2: $0.0889 TP3: $0.0922 SL: $0.0804 Holding above the entry range could allow BASED to challenge TP1. A confirmed breakout above $0.0864 may attract additional momentum and open the way toward $0.0889 and $DOGE $BASED .On July 26th, before dawn at five o'clock, the light had not yet fully penetrated the window, the numbers on the screen hovered between 64590.5 and 63806.4, as if caught by the sticky summer night of this city, moving up and down by less than one percent. The 24-hour trading volume was about 168 million USDT, neither too big nor too small, just enough for the candlestick chart to draw a few lazy shadows. No one shouted in surprise, nor did anyone panic. In this nearly frozen market, a statistic quietly refreshed: ten listed companies collectively hold over one million bitcoins. An integer milestone arrived silently. Strategy still sits at the top — 843,775 coins, worth about $58 billion at current prices. This number itself carries a distant echo, reminiscent of the market stir when MicroStrategy first bought Bitcoin in the summer of 2020. In the years since, from El Salvador to pension funds, from spot ETF approvals to now SpaceX quietly holding over 18,000 coins and having listed on Nasdaq just over a month ago. The institutional narrative of Bitcoin has grown so thick that it’s almost hard to remember it was once just a whitepaper attachment in a cypherpunk mailing list. But on the other side of the screen, the stock price curves tell a completely different story. Since 2026, Riot Platforms rose 73%, Cleanspark 39%, Mara Holdings 31%; meanwhile, Strategy fell 40%, Metaplanet dropped 49%, Twenty One Capital down 48%, Coinbase Global down 31%. The largest holders saw the steepest declines; the miners’ gains seem to respond to some kind of revaluation of infrastructure value. The logic here is unclear and should not be simplified to a single cause. Perhaps it’s leverage structures, cash flow pressures, market sentiment rotation, or just a long and ordinary value reassessment in summer. Fragmented news trickled in. Bitcoin ETF weekly trading volume has fallen to the lowest level since October 2024, while Ethereum ETF just ended five consecutive days of inflows, but weekly net inflows continue to extend — capital seems more willing to chase that delayed resilience. On the other side, an address went long with 38.55 million USDT, held for eighteen hours, and finally closed at a 1% stop-loss, losing $368,000, clean and neat like a nap without dreams. No heroic heavy positions held, no dramatic short reversals, just a string of numbers automatically disappearing after hitting a threshold. The entire market seems to have entered a subtle silent period. Bitcoin’s DeFi locked value rose slightly by 0.72% near $4.394 billion, like the water level of a lake slowly rising after the rainy season, with no sign of rushing currents. And that "one million" integer is itself just a statistical magic under a certain perspective — how many of these bitcoins held by companies are long-term chips in cold wallets, how many are underlying assets of derivatives, and how many might be sold off anytime due to earnings pressure, no one can really say. The last such dull summer was 2023, and before that 2019. In every cycle, summer always feels especially long. The list of holders changes, holding costs change, relative stock strength changes. The only thing that’s not easy to change is the bitcoins themselves, quietly lying on the chain, confirmed every ten minutes, occasionally stirring blockchain explorers due to a large transfer. They don’t speak, nor do they care whether they exist in a listed company’s treasury or an anonymous whale’s wallet. When the heat finally fades and autumn volatility returns to the market, this holding list will probably show new names and new numbers again. Any structure that seems unshakable now is only temporary in the face of time. For those watching the screen, the only thing to remember is: the story is not over, the positions in hand are not settled, and history gives no guarantees.Trump's $1.4 billion in crypto revenue is killing the CLARITY Act If the bill fails, the culprit is Chuanzi The CLARITY Act is very likely to miss the August recess. It's not a technical issue, not a vote count issue—it's Trump's own $1.4 billion in crypto revenue stuck there. Bloomberg reported today: Trump made about $1.4 billion from meme coins and token businesses, which have now become the biggest obstacle to the bill's passage. The Democrats are demanding stricter moral clauses—the president cannot issue coins while legislating under his own administration's supervision. The Republicans have only 53 seats in the Senate, and to surpass 60 votes, they need to bring in at least seven Democrats. But the Democrats are now clinging to Trump's crypto income, and both sides are at a stalemate. The probability of passing on Polymarket has dropped from 74% in May to only about 33%. The market is voting with money. The irony is—the TRUMP coin issued by Trump himself has now become a stumbling block for him to push through crypto legislation. The coins you issued blocked your own bill. This drama still needs to be watched. But one thing is certain: the bill is very unlikely to pass before the August recess. Let's talk in the comments: do you think Trump will sell his coins for the bill, or would he rather pass the bill than keep it? $BTC $ETH July 26 | BTC Data Evening Report BTC market BTC is quoted near $64,450, with an intraday high of about $64,566 and a low of about $64,028, up about 0.8% in 24 hours. The price continues to fluctuate around $64,000–$65,000, yet to break out of the recent consolidation range. ETF funds On July 24, the US spot BTC ETF saw a total net outflow of about $240.1 million, marking the second consecutive trading day of net outflows; From July 23 to 24, the cumulative net outflow was approximately $465.2 million. The previous seven consecutive trading days of capital inflows have been interrupted, and institutional funds have shifted from continuous inflows to continuous withdrawals in the short term. On-chain Tokens (Address Calibration) Based on the consecutive snapshots from July 25 to 26: Less than 10 BTC: net decrease of about 65 BTC, latest total holdings about 3.4722 million BTC 10–100 BTC: Net increase of about 182 BTC, latest total holdings about 4.2324 million BTC Above 100 BTC: net increase of about 108 BTC, latest total holdings about 12.3542 million BTC Internal changes above 100 BTC: 100–1,000 BTC: Net decrease of about 1,904 BTC 1,000–10,000 BTC: net increase of about 1,878 BTC 10,000–100,000 BTC: Net increase of about 134 BTC Over 100,000 BTC: Basically unchanged Total holdings above 100 BTC increased by only 108 BTC, but internal migration was obvious, mainly reflected in a decrease in the 100–1,000 BTC range, while the above 1,000 BTC level increased. BTC exchange The latest public snapshot shows that the total BTC balance across all exchanges is about 2.7032 million, with a net outflow of approximately 3,075 BTC. Exchange balances remain in net outflows, diverging from ETFs for two consecutive days of net outflows: on-chain tradable tokens have decreased, but traditional funding channels have weakened in the short term. Contract data BTC contract open interest is about $48.53 billion, 24-hour contract turnover is about $19.696 billion, spot trading is about $1.124 billion, and BTC contract liquidation is about $6.366 million. Open interest remains at a relatively high level, but weekend trading volume and liquidations are not large, so there is currently no obvious concentrated deleveraging in the market. Important news today Next week, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively announce interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, Middle East developments pushed oil prices up to around $100 per barrel, energy prices renewed inflation expectations, and the market began to bet more on further rate hikes. High oil prices and expectations of high interest rates remain the most important external pressures for BTC in the near term. BitMart announced the end of nine years of operations, with all trading halted on August 26 and officially shutting down on January 31, 2027; This is the second trading platform to announce its exit within a week, following BitMEX. BitMart previously reported a 24-hour turnover of about $1.6 billion, with consecutive exchange closures that may continue to affect market trust and capital concentration trends among small and medium-sized platforms. Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, plans to establish crypto trading and custody infrastructure by December. Russia's new crypto trading, custody, and settlement rules will take effect in September, indicating that large traditional banks continue to enter the regulated crypto asset services sector, but the short-term direct impact on BTC liquidity is limited. Next, let's focus on the main focus Can BTC regain the $65,000 level and break through the recent resistance near $66,000? Can ETFs resume net inflows after Monday's opening, or will continuous outflows expand further? Will BTC exchanges continue to see net outflows, and whether addresses with 100–1,000 BTC will stop decreasing? If oil prices remain near $100 and push U.S. Treasury yields higher, macro pressure on BTC is unlikely to ease significantly. $BTC #星球日报 比特币流动性集中化：山寨季并未到来，只是资金在少数币种间循环 当前市场是否已形成可持续的多头结构，还是仅靠局部杠杆驱动？ 核心事实：原始帖子明确指出，当前并非全市场上涨趋势，而是流动性在有限币种之间循环。资金集中于BTC、JELLYJELLY、OPG、SLX、LAB、BSB、ALLO、CHIP等少数代币，而BEAT、EDGE、COAI、TRUMP、RAVE等大量山寨币正在失速。ETH、SOL、TAO、WLD、HYPE、DOGE、ZEC被视为结构性支柱，分别对应机构资金、高Beta风险偏好、AI叙事、风险偏好指标和散户追涨情绪。 市场结构变化：当前定价的核心矛盾在于，BTC在高位维持流动性锚定，但山寨币整体并未形成同步上涨。这导致资金费率出现分化：BTC永续合约资金费率维持正数，但多数山寨币资金费率接近零甚至转负，表明杠杆更多集中在BTC一侧，山寨端缺乏持续性多头加仓。基差方面，BTC期货升水（Contango）结构仍存在，但幅度收敛，暗示市场对远期涨幅预期趋于保守。 定价传导路径：若BTC继续在当前位置横盘整理，资金将难以向外扩散至山寨币，因为流动性被BTC吸收后，山寨币需依赖更低的估值或更强的叙事才能吸引增量资金。反之，若BTC出现显著回调，可能触发多头踩踏，导致杠杆集中清算，进而拖累ETH和SOL等主流币，形成系统性回调。山寨币中，JELLYJELLY、OPG等强流动性标的可能在BTC横盘期间维持相对强势，但BEAT、EDGE等失速币种若无法获得新资金注入，大概率继续下行。 偏多路径与条件：若BTC资金费率维持正值且基差重新走阔，表明杠杆多头持续增仓，市场可能进入局部趋势延续。此时需观察JELLYJELLY、OPG等是否出现成交量放大后的持续推升，以及失速币种是否出现底部放量止跌。偏空路径与条件：若BTC资金费率快速转负或基差收窄至平水以下，暗示多头信心瓦解，可能引发连锁清算。同时需警惕失速币种加速下跌，导致山寨端整体风险偏好崩塌。 风险提示：当前市场结构高度依赖BTC流动性锚定，若BTC失守关键支撑位，可能引发全市场去杠杆。失速币种若持续缩量，将难以形成有效反弹。 $BTC $ETH $SOL $HYPE $DOGE #流动性集中 #杠杆结构 #山寨币分化📊 $LIT Quick Overview of Liquidations Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $50.73 · 4 hours: $2,484.51 · 12 hours: $5,236.94 · 24 hours: $27,600 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $0 $50.73 0% 4h $2,428.02 $56.50 97.7% 12h $5,022.43 $214.50 95.9% 24h $13,600 $14,000 49.3% Duokong interpretation Short liquidation in 1 hour was $50.73, long position was zero, very small scale; 4-hour and 12-hour long liquidations continue to crush short positions (accounting for 95.9%~97.7%), with prices continuing to fall; However, within 24 hours, short liquidations at $14,000 narrowly overtook the market (accounting for 50.7%), reversing the direction within 12-24 hours and turning into a short squeeze and upward trend. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "early long selling→ closing short reversal." Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 0.18% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 9.0% of 24 hours · 12 hours accounts for 18.97% of 24 hours The distribution of liquidations is obvious: the first 12 hours accounted for only 18.97%, while the 24-hour total volume is 5.27 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that short squeezes surged fiercely between the 12-24 hours (about $22,400 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 81.0% of the whole day). Currently, the market is in the stage of a short squeeze outbreak, with concentrated liquidations on short positions and closing sessions, so attention should be paid to its sustainability. A one-sentence explanation $LIT 24-hour short liquidation $14,000, accounting for 50.7% of the total, reversed direction, and the bulls ultimately prevailed. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress ━━━ Night Review · 2026-07-26 ━━━ Shadow Shaman · Hunters on the chain At the end of the day, logic remains. 🧭 Today's panorama → BTC $64,554 24h: +0.86% · ETH $1,888 24h: +1.71% · SOL $74.92 → Today's Volatility: BTC 0.64K ($63,996-$64,637) → Trading volume: BTC $1.87B · Funding rate: BTC 0.001% / ETH 0.001% 📊 Structural changes • OI: $2.035B (31,524 BTC), no significant increase or decrease throughout the day • Funding rate: Both currencies have rates at <0.0011%, at an absolute low with no directional pressure • BTC Premium: -0.055% (slight discount), bears slightly taking the initiative but showing no aggressive intent 🔥 Today's highlights • #1 DCA (BSC) +9.11% — 24-hour gain over 4000%, but MCap only $184K, 42% of shares share the same source, showing obvious signs of manipulation • #2 PONS (XLayer) +5.59% — MCap $54.6 million, one of the largest memes in the XLayer ecosystem, saw a slight rise today • TRUMP2028 (Solana) +1.29% — 5,306 token-holding addresses, maintaining popularity but with modest gains • BullPad (Solana) -27.47% — Previously surging memes experienced a deep pullback today, a typical "catch knife scene" ⚡ Smart money flows • Smart money on Solana today mainly focused on SalaryCat (bought at $1,487), but has already sold 70%, showing a clear pattern of fast in and out of stock • Justice For Sara Gilson (Sara) was chased by 10 smart money addresses, with 82% having sold out • Overall, Smart Money was doing short-term harvesting in the Solana meme layer with a "grab a hand, then exit" strategy, with no intention to hold overnight 💡 Shadows recoil BTC followed a standard contracting sideways movement today—$64K spent the day within 40 points. OI remains unchanged, rates are flat, and premiums are discounted but only slightly increased, indicating that both bulls and bears are controlling their positions. Guessing the direction at this position is no different from guessing a coin; the bulls haven't exerted momentum, and the bears haven't broken through. Memes on the hot topic side are lively, but the DCA market with 42% of the same source is clearly a trap—whoever chases the most here is caught by a flying knife. Smart money showed no intention of staying overnight at the Solana meme level today; after the rally, it left. This sentiment transmitted to the main board signaled "no incremental funds entering the market." Tonight, I chose to continue observing. If BTC can shrink above $64K and grind for another day, the structure would actually be healthier. No matter how sharp or down, I won't take it. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📡 Shadow Shaman · Hunters on the chain #暗影萨满🔥 From 46 to 142, then back to 79! $OKB This wave isn't a pullback; it's like rubbing the chives down and handing over a cigarette! Guys, who wouldn't be confused by this $OKB script from July? 📉 At the beginning of the month (that needle in early July): still lying flat at 46 cuts, playing dead. 🔥 Then OKX set off a fire: burning 278.9 million $OKB, permanently welding the total at 21 million. 🚀 The price rocketed straight in: soaring to $142.88, a 193% massive syllable sold out all the bears. 💀 And then? : Fell back to around 79, and has been grinding for almost three weeks. With 24-hour trading volume shrinking to just over 50 million, retail investors are all asking, "Is this over?" ” #OKX.ai: One person is a world-class company --- 🧬 Let me tell you, this trend is wild, and behind it are three hard logics clashing: 1. Supply side: OKX has fully transcribed Bitcoin's scarcity scenario The total supply of 21 million was locked, and the smart contract completely blocked both the additional issuance and manual burning. X Layer's gas is still burning in small amounts. What does this mean? OKB won't be reborn; it will only become fewer. How many exchanges have you seen in history with fixed total supply tokens? 2. Demand Side: Bet on the entire ecosystem, fail or die OKX cut OKT Chain and bet all on X Layer (Polygon CDK's zkEVM). OKB becomes the only fuel in the entire ecosystem + fee discounts + Jumpstart tickets. ICE (NYSE's real father) even came in to take a stand. This isn't just empty promises; it's just putting on a stage. 3. Market Volume: A typical shakeout after a surge, waiting for the big players to speak The 50-day moving average at $79 is holding down, the 200-day moving average at $88 is holding down, and the RSI at 56 is lukewarm. This is the kind of being repeatedly rubbed in the middle, washing away those who are uncertain. #OKX星球话题来啦 --- 🗣️ My rough summary of the summary: If you shout "reset to zero," wake up. An exchange token with a total supply of 21 million + full ecosystem gas is unprecedented in history. If you're shouting "Breaking 200 soon," don't even dream about it. Before BTC doesn't cooperate and X Layer doesn't have daily active users, the grueling 79-82 range will have to stay for a while. What stage is it now? The Fear and Greed Index once dropped to 23 (extreme fear), retail investors are cutting losses, and large players are hesitating. A typical "no chase when prices rise, no buying when prices fall" — a twisted phase. OKB is no longer a junk platform coin; it is a monster forcibly transformed by OKX into an "exchange-style BTC." In the short term, it will be dragged by the broader market; in the medium term, it depends on whether X Layer has real users; in the long term, it depends on whether the 21 million figure is enough to tell a story. 👇 Now the question arises: Do you think OKB really dropped completely this round and is preparing for a second firing, or will they fake a fall and continue sawing wood at 78-82? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Chart analysis: 1. Long-term trend: Previously completed a deep bear market decline from a high of 104.63, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 30%. 2. Short-term structure: After bottoming out at 70, a recovery rebound began, and the current price has broken above all short-term moving averages, indicating a recovery in short-term bullish momentum 3. Resistance and support: First resistance above at 85, support below at 81-82 (MA5/MA10 moving averages)📊 JUST IN: Saylor Hints At More Bitcoin, But The Reality Is Sharper Now "We're gonna need another color." Classic Saylor confidence, posted with a dashboard of Strategy's 843,775 BTC. But the numbers behind that swagger tell a harder story than the meme suggests. 📉 Where it stands: Holdings: 843,775 BTC Average cost: $75,653 Unrealized loss: about 14.8%, roughly $9.5 billion Q2 digital asset loss: $8.32 billion, mostly unrealized Here's what actually changed, and it matters. The "never sell" narrative is over. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC in early July for about $216 million, using the proceeds to fund preferred stock dividends and rebuild its dollar reserve. This followed a formal Bitcoin monetization program launched June 29 that lets the company sell up to $1.25 billion of BTC to cover obligations. A company built on the promise of relentless accumulation is now selling to pay its bills. That is a real shift, not a headline. None of this means the long-term thesis is broken, and that's the honest takeaway. These losses are unrealized, the CFO says the reserve could cover net debt even if BTC fell 91%, and Strategy has still added coins across the cycle. The lesson worth borrowing is conviction and dollar-cost averaging over years, using capital you won't need tomorrow. The lesson to avoid is the leverage, the forced sales, and treating one confident tweet as a buy signal. What to watch: Whether Strategy keeps selling under the monetization program or resumes buying. The health of its preferred stock and any pressure on MSTR shares, down 77% from the high. A confident post from the biggest holder is not a catalyst. Respect the conviction, watch the balance sheet, because structure decides who survives a bear market. Conviction that pays off, or a model meeting its limits? Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL 破产倒闭名单继续增加！ 7月23日 @BitMEX 宣布将于 2026 年 9 月 23 日 04:00:00 UTC 起关闭其运营。 7月24日 @odosprotocol 宣布应用程序将于 7 月 27 日转为只读模式，所有 Odos 服务将于 2026 年 7 月 30 日永久关闭。 7月25日 @dango 宣布终止项目，8月13日星期三，UTC时间中午12点，Dango L1区块链将停止运行。 7月25日曾经全球最大的比特币矿池 币印 Poolin @officialpoolin 申请破产。 7月26日 @BitMartExchange 宣布2026 年 8 月 26 日，UTC 时间 01:00：所有交易服务将停止。 2027 年 1 月 31 日，UTC 时间 15:59：平台运营将正式终止。 看看这些死亡名单，死法无外乎两种： 1⃣ 伪需求被戳破，牛市随便搞个基建搞个聚合器就开始融资，熊市才发现根本没有商业闭环。 2⃣ 杠杆反噬，币印这种看似很稳的加杠杆方式也一波被带走，本来是可以踏上这波 AI 潮卖个好价格，可惜死在了黎明前。 熊市的下半场，能做到守住本金不踩雷，就已经跑赢了 90% 的人。📊 $ZEC Quick Overview of Liquidation Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $3,530.82 · 4 hours: $49,000 · 12 hours: $191,600 · 24 hours: $574,100 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $3,530.82 $0 100% 4h $4,686.80 $44,300 9.6% 12h $11,400 $180,200 5.9% 24h $93,900 $480,200 16.4% Duokong interpretation 100% of the 1-hour long liquidations ($3,530.82) were made, but the scale was so small that it could be ignored; From the 4-hour onward, short liquidation suddenly crushed the bulls (accounting for 90.4%), initiating a short squeeze rally; The 12-hour short position ratio reached as high as 94.1%, the most intense short squeeze of the day; Within 24 hours, short positions were liquidated at $480,200 (83.7%), with short squeezes continuing into the later stages. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "short-term disturbances → persistent extreme short squeezes," with bears suffering devastating liquidation. Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 0.62% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 8.54% of 24 hours · 12 hours accounts for 33.38% of 24 hours Liquidations are concentrated in the 12-hour cycle (about one-third), but the total 24-hour volume is 3.00 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating a sharp escalation of short squeezes in the 12-24 hours (about $382,500 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 66.6% of the day). Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with bears suffering heavy losses, but after extreme gains, caution is needed to be aware of the risk of sharp pullbacks. A one-sentence explanation $ZEC 24-hour short liquidation at $480,200, accounting for 83.7% of the total, with short squeezes dominating and upgrades in the later stages, the bulls winning decisively. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Trump reported $1.4B+ in crypto income for 2025. Breakdown from his financial disclosure: $635M — $TRUMP meme coin sales $770M— World Liberty Financial $520M from token sales $250M from selling business interests That’s a 9x jump from last year. Crypto is now his largest source of income. Meanwhile the Senate can’t move the CLARITY Act. Democrats argue you can’t have a president regulating crypto while making $1B+ from it. Republicans argue the bill shouldn’t be written around one person. The current draft would ban sitting officials from issuing or sponsoring new digital assets. But it doesn’t fully address family-run projects. Conflict or not — this is why ethics is holding up the biggest crypto bill in years. NFA. DYOR. Watch the disclosures, not just the charts. #EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause #EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause Is the crypto world really tough? Or did the US stock market show its weakness first? In the short term, it's exciting to watch, but don't rush to catch up on the signal—whoever acts impulsively in this market will suffer. Look at the numbers $BTC 64,440 +0.57%　$ETH 1,885 +1.24% $QQQ -1.12%　$SPY +0.10%　$IBIT -0.82% $DXY +0.03%　$GLD +0.10% Crude oil and Hormuz have been shivering, and inflation expectations have never been honest. The crypto world and ETFs are still competing over risk appetite, but once the old scripts of AI and semiconductors flip the page, $QQQ's mood switch can instantly split the entire market. Qian clearly shifted toward defense, $QQQ that bit of energy couldn't hold the court at all. $ETH Today is more elastic than $BTC, and risk appetite is still struggling to push upward, but $IBIT is a bit weaker than spot trading. ETF funds entering the market have narrowed down, indicating spot stocks aren't as aggressive. $DXY Heads are stubbornly suppressed by risk assets, $GLD still in the red, haven't even escaped all the hedging funds, just keeping a backup plan. A barrage of analysis is fierce as a tiger, but whether the market rises or falls, Trump is still watched. Don't rush to bet; wait for clearer signals. Whoever shows weakness first will set the direction first. Let's wait and see. #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零Recently, market sentiment has warmed up, and $SHIB has seen a strong rebound. In just two trading days, the price started around $0.0000042, reaching a high of $0.0000058, with a maximum increase of nearly 36% during the range. Its market capitalization rose by about $1 billion simultaneously, reassembling it among the top 30 crypto assets by market cap. Many people simply attribute this round of rally to MEME sector rotational speculation, but considering on-chain, tokenomics, and capital flow data, the market-driven logic is far more complex than surface sentiment. First, let's review SHIB's underlying token framework, which is the foundation for understanding all market trends. The initial total supply of SHIB was 1,000 trillion, with 500 trillion transferred to the Vitalik burn address during launch, laying the foundation for the project's deflationary nature. As of the latest Shibburn on-chain statistics, the total amount burned has reached 410.84 trillion, accounting for 41.08% of the original supply, permanently deprived of the circulating market; Currently, the circulating market supply remains at 589.16 trillion coins. Many market participants tend to misunderstand that continuous burning will quickly cause supply shortages. Objective data clearly shows that early burns exceeding 400 trillion were concentrated in 2021, a one-time large-scale burn, with daily community burns relatively limited in the past year. On the eve of this rally, the daily regular burn volume mostly stayed in the millions of tokens, but during the market kickoff, the 24-hour burn rate surged by up to 1400%, with 6.75 million tokens burned in a single day, and the burning frenzy rapidly heating up.Many players are used to speculating on MEME and AI hot coins, so switching to $OKB easily leads to pitfalls. They often wonder: why does the hot market keep surging, but OKB often remains lukewarm? Today, let's break down and talk about the underlying gameplay of this platform coin. Let's start with the underlying background: OKB is the native token of the OKX exchange, and has long been more than just a simple exchange points. In the early days, its main functions were fee deductions and participation in new token subscriptions on platforms; A major upgrade followed, with a permanent lock of 21 million tokens, completely closing the new minting channel, and making it the native gas token of the X Layer 2 network. Simply put, OKB has a dual value foundation: on one hand, it relies on centralized exchange transaction fee buyback and burning; on the other, it undertakes the development needs of the second-layer public chain ecosystem. Compared to altcoins that tell stories out of thin air, they have real and continuous business cash flow as a foundation, which is the fundamental reason for their stronger resilience during bear markets. Let's clarify the core logic of the current market: hot small coins rely on speculative funds for short-term rallying, causing sentiment to surge continuously; But OKB's price is tightly tied to two things: the exchange's overall trading volume and the large-scale ecosystem event launched by the official team. During market frenzy, funds favor highly elastic theme coins and look down on platform coins with slow paces; But once the market falls into volatility and market risks rise, funds start clustering together with platform coins to hedge risks. This creates its unique trending feature: it's hard to surge in prices, and big drops often lag behind the knockoffs. It's hard to see a single-day main upward wave of 20 to 30 points; more of it is a volatile upward movement and repeated pull-up cycles. A few that can be tracked in the future⚠️🏅 $YGG /USDT Market Alert 📊 YGG is holding around $0.0186 with improving sentiment. Support lies near $0.0180, while resistance is around $0.0195 and $0.0205. 🎯 Target: $0.0195 → $0.0205 → $0.0220. 🎯 Stop Loss: $0.0177. 🛑 Next Move: A breakout above $0.0195 could spark fresh bullish momentum, while losing support may trigger a short-term pullback. 💯#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #KoreaAIChipPush 📊 $OKB Quick Overview of Liquidation Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $153.74 · 4 hours: $158.06 · 12 hours: $158.06 · 24 hours: $37,600 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $0 $153.74 0% 4h $0 $158.06 0% 12h $0 $158.06 0% 24h $0 $37,600 0% Duokong interpretation Short liquidations account for 100% of the cycles, while long liquidations account for zero, indicating an extreme unilateral short squeeze upward trend. In the first 12 hours, liquidation was extremely small (about $154~$158), with mild short squeezes initiating; 24-hour liquidation surged to $37,600, with short squeeze conditions exploding in 12-24 hours. Ultimate winner: Bulls—Bearish and late trading face concentrated and devastating liquidation. Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 0.41% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 0.42% of 24 hours · 12 hours accounts for 0.42% of 24 hours Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 0.42%, while the total 24-hour volume is about 238 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that the short squeeze market exploded in the latter half. Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with concentrated liquidations on short positions at the close, but after extreme gains, caution is needed regarding the risk of sharp corrections. A one-sentence explanation $OKB 24-hour short liquidation at $37,600, accounting for 100%, followed by explosive upgrades in the following 12 hours, with bulls winning decisively. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
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