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Still referring to one of this week's macro frameworks—whether employment data can be the key to stopping Walsh's September rate hike. The US August Minor Nonfarm Payroll data was released, recording 38,000, significantly weaker than expected and previously. The Minor Nonfarm Data rose from 95,000 in June to 46,000 in July, and then to 38,000 in August, indicating a clear trend of weakening employment in private enterprises. #非农前数据分化, expectations for a rate hike in September are heating up, combined with yesterday's ISM manufacturing data and July job vacancies. Before the nonfarm payroll data was released, the employment map was already very clear. The private sector's weakening of hiring without large-scale layoffs means companies' willingness to create new jobs is decreasing. This is a typical environment of low employment and low layoffs. As mentioned in this week's framework, if employment is to slow the probability of a rate hike in September, there should be no risk of recession, but a reasonable weakening is necessary. Tonight's small nonfarm payroll data indeed meets this expectation: if employment has not collapsed, employment has weakened, which supports weakening the probability of a rate hike in September. But does the market really trade according to this expectation? In the bond market, the 2-year US Treasury yield dropped rapidly after the data release, but then rebounded strongly, indicating that rate hike expectations are indeed weak. However, trading a slowdown in rate hikes remains difficult. The CME rate hike probability for September dropped from 66.8% before the data release to 66.2%, weakening the chance of a rate hike by 0.6%. Looking at these two data sides, the small nonfarm payroll data did weaken rate hike expectations, but it was clearly insufficient. The main reasons lie from two sources