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Iran-Oman signed an agreement, but the Strait is still not open — this is a “passage roadmap,” not an “opening declaration” Over the weekend, did you encounter someone like this? They saw the news — “Iran and Oman reached a navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz!” They immediately concluded: oil prices will fall, inflation will drop, BTC will rise. Then they went to sleep peacefully. Woke up Monday — Brent crude futures fell 0.61% in after-hours trading, at $86. BTC remained flat. They were completely confused. “The agreement is signed, why isn’t it rising?” Because you didn’t even finish reading the agreement. Here’s the conclusion: Iran and Oman signed an agreement, but the Strait is still not open. This is not an “opening declaration,” it’s a “passage roadmap.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi’s exact words were — “The issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz and this agreement are two completely different topics.” Did you get that? Agreement reached ≠ Strait opened. Let me break it down in three layers. First layer: The route — ships can pass, but it’s Iran’s “backyard” According to the agreement, the existing two routes — the northern route controlled by Iran and the southern route supported by the U.S. military — are both closed. What replaces them? Commercial vessels entering and leaving the Strait will now take part of their journey through Iranian territorial waters. What does that mean? Previously there were two routes, one controlled by Iran and one by the U.S. Now there’s only one route, controlled solely by Iran. This effectively gives Iran the de facto “passage approval right” — every ship must pass through Iran’s territory. The New York Times put it bluntly: the new navigation arrangement will “consolidate Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz,” granting Iran “strategic influence it did not have before the war.” Trump said he wanted to turn the Strait into U.S. territory. Iran’s counter: no need for your declaration, I’ll just control it. Second layer: Fees — 60 days free is a “trial period,” after which the real battle begins The agreement initially sets a 60-day period with no passage fees charged. But what happens after 60 days? Reuters previously cited sources saying Iran wants to charge 5% to 7% of cargo value, Oman wants 3%. The U.S.? Wants no fees at all. Iran wants to charge, the U.S. refuses. The 60-day free period is a “trial” — get you used to this new route first, then when you can’t live without it, I’ll tell you the price. This isn’t an agreement, it’s “bait.” Third layer: Politics — Iran set 7 conditions, the U.S. hasn’t agreed to any On August 8, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Zolfaqari proposed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on the U.S. meeting 7 conditions: No threats to Iran’s security, end regional conflicts, lift maritime blockade, withdraw troops, full compensation for war damages, fully lift sanctions, unfreeze frozen assets. 7 conditions, none accepted by the U.S. Iran’s Foreign Minister made it clear: only if the U.S. complies with certain conditions will Iran restore navigation through the Strait. So, do you think the Strait is open? Not at all. To be blunt: The market might first celebrate “agreement reached” on Monday (oil price falls), then realize “oh, nothing is really resolved” (oil price rises again). A perfect script for two-way volatility. And don’t forget — Trump said “high gasoline prices are the price to pay to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.” In plain language: high oil prices, I accept. A president willing to endure high oil prices, and an Iran that gained control of the Strait — do you think this game will end in 60 days? Agreement signed, Strait not open. Ships can pass, money not yet discussed. 60 days is a countdown, not a finish line. When the market opens Monday, if oil prices fall, don’t rush to go long; if oil prices rise, don’t rush to go short. $BTC $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价