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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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非农数据意外走弱,美国就业处于降温/衰退边缘。工资压力走弱通胀预期放缓+就业初步风险,能否改变沃什的鹰派观点? 今天的大非农数据是本周的核心宏观数据,也是宏观定价之锚,给出的数据还是相对“炸裂”,而对于风险市场的我们,短期是利好与风险并存的。 先看数据: 失业率4.1%,低于预期与前值,但是这个失业率并不代表就业热,详细数据中可以看出,因为劳动参与率下降(基数)降低导致失业率走弱,这是更多人退出了劳动市场信号,而这种情况从今年以来出现多次,这也是风险点之一 非农就业人数-2.3万人,大幅低于预期与前值,这个数据很容易让人误会美国就业崩了,其实要结合前值修正一起看,过去三个月大幅下修,且就业数据连续走弱,这意味着美国就业已经不是温和走弱,而是持续失速 平均时薪,仅仅增加2没分,等于没有增长,工资增长带来的通胀压力正在放缓, 这三个数据组成一份就业风险初现+工资通胀压力放缓的组合,这个组合有助于降息预期的抬头 不过需要注意,就业的降温与衰退只有一步之遥,前者带来降息预期对风险市场是利好,后者带来的则是经济风险,对风险市场则是短期利空,尤其是美股。 而当前就业处于什么阶段?我认为目前处于衰退风险第一阶段——就业失速 1,对于目前美国的就业市场无非就是三种可能性,就业重新过热,温和降温,衰退风险,而今晚数据我认为是温和降温到衰退风险之间 2,单看7月就业人数,以及前三个月的连续就业下降数据,会让市场误会衰退风险,但是失业率依旧较低处于4.1%(不健康的低),初请失业金人数也在不断走低,结合小非农数据私人就业仍然增加。 3,6月职位空缺+7月ADP小非农数据给出的结果是私人企业虽然在招聘,但是招聘扩张已经接近停止,但是还并未触发大规模裁员,所以综合评估,目前还未到就业衰退阶段 4,后续关注Q3数据中失业率是否不断上涨,初请失业金人数是否持续走高,企业招聘在暂停后是否出现大规模裁员等等,一旦这些迹象出现,意味着就业进入衰退风险。 #联储鹰派信号升温,弱就业能否压过通胀? 是否可以撼动沃什的鹰派政策? 沃什的政策是什么?是减少预期管理,是减少对外前瞻指引,是将政策锚定数据本身,而今晚的就业数据,连续三个月就业下降,前值大幅下修,7月就业增长出现失速风险 按照沃什上任以来建立的政策框架,这份数据确实可以撼动沃什的政策观点,改变他加息或者继续保持高利率的观点 但是,这是理论,我认为沃什的想法是让未来美联储的政策锚定新的数据组合,也就是他的数据工作组,再次之前,他不会让市场相信美联储政策与当前数据是强相关的,所以我甚至担心沃什会对待7月CPI数据一样,给出否定的答案,认为当前就业数据无法真实代表当前的就业情况 当然,这个观点我可能过度主观,但是一旦出现,确实对市场是一个严重的打击。 当亲市场定价+未来定价逻辑预期! 1,数据公布后,债市1年,10年,30年收益率大幅下降,1年对利率预期敏感,数据导致加息预期走弱,降息预期逐渐抬头,10年与30年中长债则对今晚的就业+工资压力访华进行定价,从而走弱 2,美元加速下行,黄金加速上涨,两者负相关关系,且黄金近期很有可能抢跑了当前的宏观就业风险+通胀放缓的组合 3,美股盘前上涨,今晚美股观察重点不是指数,而是板块情况,如果科技股AI股继续走强,那么美股是交易降息,如果是科技股走弱,蓝筹股走强,意味着交易衰退,而目前SPHB/SPHQ指数显示上涨,意味着风险偏好增加,美股盘前正在交易降息预期 4,#Bitcoin 看跟美股的情况,目前美股盘前BTC开始上涨,稍后看美股开盘是否跟涨,跟涨意味着流动性改善,风险偏好增加,同步交易降息预期,如果美股开盘BTC伴随着科技股下跌,意味着开始走衰退避险逻辑。 5,按照盘前情况,如果美股开始交易降息今晚必然是一个上涨行情,但是能否持续乐观,FOMO新的降息预期到来?不要上头,这时候还不够 6,后续要看沃什对这份数据的态度,认可与不认可,都会影响降息预期是否加速回归, 7,这份数据可以让政策回归宽松预期,但是并不能完全扭转,毕竟目前名义上通胀还在高位,且沃什更加看重通胀问题,所以就业风险带来的降息预期未必可以持续很久,且美股Q2财报还在进行中,我反而认为,今晚可能会是一个很不错的做空看回调的机会!
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Previously, when trading crypto, you could say macroeconomics was not necessary. Now, trading US stocks, macro is an unavoidable concept. Macro determines whether the money in your hands is expensive or cheap, deciding how much valuation multiples investors are willing to pay, while the company's fundamentals determine whether you should pay for the current valuation or whether the market is willing to support the current valuation with price. Since the Q2 earnings season began, we can clearly verify this logic. Despite strong corporate earnings, some stock prices still fell. Although this may be due to a lack of future guidance in the earnings reports, the core reason is that the money in hand is too expensive, and investors are unwilling to pay for the current valuation. Therefore, to support better valuations in the future, besides the company's own efforts, macro conditions must make money cheaper, meaning lower interest rates. This week's focus is on employment data. The market is watching whether this employment report can change the Fed's hawkish high interest rate policy. As of yesterday, data on June job openings, July small nonfarm payrolls, and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI have been released. Overall, the data so far suggests the US is experiencing a typical combination of strong economic demand + reduced corporate hiring + rising cost pressures. Especially yesterday's non-manufacturing PMI price index increase indicates inflationary pressure remains. Within this data set, weakening employment could soften the Fed's hawkish high interest rate stance, but since price pressures persist, it remains difficult to shake or reverse the Fed's policy. The key point will be tomorrow's major nonfarm payrolls. If macro conditions cannot make the money in our hands cheaper, then the current market valuation ceiling is a potential constraint. Especially now that the Q2 earnings season is underway and leading companies have reported, the market is more stringent on earnings, and with money remaining expensive, this leads to reluctance to spend to support current valuations! #闪迪财报双超预期,新增140亿美元回购授权

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