Previously, when trading crypto, you could say macroeconomics was not necessary. Now, trading US stocks, macro is an unavoidable concept.
Macro determines whether the money in your hands is expensive or cheap, deciding how much valuation multiples investors are willing to pay, while the company's fundamentals determine whether you should pay for the current valuation or whether the market is willing to support the current valuation with price.
Since the Q2 earnings season began, we can clearly verify this logic. Despite strong corporate earnings, some stock prices still fell. Although this may be due to a lack of future guidance in the earnings reports, the core reason is that the money in hand is too expensive, and investors are unwilling to pay for the current valuation.
Therefore, to support better valuations in the future, besides the company's own efforts, macro conditions must make money cheaper, meaning lower interest rates.
This week's focus is on employment data. The market is watching whether this employment report can change the Fed's hawkish high interest rate policy. As of yesterday, data on June job openings, July small nonfarm payrolls, and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI have been released.
Overall, the data so far suggests the US is experiencing a typical combination of strong economic demand + reduced corporate hiring + rising cost pressures. Especially yesterday's non-manufacturing PMI price index increase indicates inflationary pressure remains.
Within this data set, weakening employment could soften the Fed's hawkish high interest rate stance, but since price pressures persist, it remains difficult to shake or reverse the Fed's policy. The key point will be tomorrow's major nonfarm payrolls.
If macro conditions cannot make the money in our hands cheaper, then the current market valuation ceiling is a potential constraint. Especially now that the Q2 earnings season is underway and leading companies have reported, the market is more stringent on earnings, and with money remaining expensive, this leads to reluctance to spend to support current valuations! #闪迪财报双超预期,新增140亿美元回购授权
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