No, it's not a bubble in tech stocks. We are less than 1 standard deviation from the trend. You can see what a bubble looks like in the late 1990's when we exploded out of the decade long log regression channel to be multiple SD's from trend.
Nothing to see, move on... 1/
Also, "But P/E ratio's are at bubble valuations!" narrative doesnt take into account the fact the during debasement the P rises (due to debasement) more than E (anchored by GDP growth in general). If debasement is 11% and GDP is 2% trend over same period then P/E rises by 9% p.a
This means that P/E ratio's double over 8 years or so. Its the denominator effect.
Also BTC is less than 1SD from trend. It usually hits 2 SD.
This is driven by the ISM (business cycle) being lacklustre so far....
Which in turn is driven by less need to add liquidity in the US due to most debts extending to 5 yrs and needing to be rolled over next 12 months...($10trn)
Which makes total Global Liquidity the most dominant macro factor maybe in the history of markets. This is driven by demographics which drives debt...
BUT, this is not just a US game. Back in 2017, the Fed were raising raises, doing QT and t Fed Net Liquidity was flat but China and the UK drove total global liquidity, which meant number go up.
Total Global Liquidity is THE game. It is THE debasement of fiat...
And to us, that is why the cycle is lacklustre thus far...because 2025 was not the year of the big debt roll over...thank you Covid for allowing avg maturity to be lengthened by a year as rates hit zero..
So, probabilistically speaking, things have shifted...
I am fully aware that "this time is different" is a powerfully dangerous sentence but our view at GMI is that it is not different, it is the same because the cycle is based on debt maturity.
Still, taking lifestyle chips off into a strong rally to new highs in ETH, SOL, SUI will hedge the risk of being wrong. I never go through the cycle with no exposure but instead prefer to compound and add when prices fall.
To me, it's all to play for. There are no bubbles.
8.24K
0
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.