“Solo mining a Bitcoin block is harder than winning the lottery” While technically true, it's also deeply misleading. Why? Because bitcoin mining gives you 144 chances per day, not just one. And that frequency changes everything. It's at least 46x more likely to solo mine a block per day. I researched the two most popular lotteries: PowerBall and Mega Millions, and compared them to the odds of mining a block with 1 TH on the bitcoin network. I used 900EH/s for the total network for simplicity. What I learned might surprise you. At first glance, the odds of hitting a block are much worse than winning the lottery, 3 times worse, in fact. - 1 in 292M Powerball Jackpot odds - 1 in 303M Mega Millions odds - 1 in 900M for hitting a block But that doesn't tell the full story. This "one bitcoin block = one lottery drawing" is where the misconception is rooted. Lottery drawings are infrequent events, while bitcoin mining is a relentless race - Powerball drawings are 3x/week - Mega Million drawings are 2x/week - Bitcoin networks produces ~144 blocks daily and ~1008 blocks in a week Even though the odds per block are low, when given 144 chances per day, your chance of at least one success grows pretty quickly. Cumulative odds matter. You check the lottery per day, or weekly, so those time frames are a more realistic baseline for comparison. The probability of mining a block in a day is 1 in 6.25M - 46 times better than the Powerball - 48 times better than the Mega Millions The gap widens when we look at longer time horizons (assuming buying 1 ticket per lottery drawing). Per Week: - Powerball (3x/week) 1 in 97M - Mega Millions (2x/week) 1 in 151M - 1TH Mini Miner (1008 attempts) 1 in 892k ✅ At least 108x better odds per week Per Month: - Powerball (12x/month) 1 in 22M - Mega Millions (8x/month) 1 in 35M - 1TH Mini Miner (4320 attempts) 1 in 208k ✅ At least 105x better odds per month Per Year: - Powerball (156x/year) 1 in 1.87M - Mega Millions (104x/year) 1 in 2.90M - 1TH Mini Miner (over 52,000 attempts) 1 in 17k ✅ At least 110x better odds per year The numbers say it all. When you repeat unlikely events often, your chance of success compounds. So if you're comparing solo mining vs the lottery, Don't compare one block to one ticket. Compare a day of mining to one draw, where you would need to buy 46-48 lottery tickets to achieve the same odds. When viewed over time, solo mining is far more likely to hit the "jackpot" If you play the lottery regularly, do yourself a favor Start home mining and never look back.