#CPIToResetFedBets

CPI Could Reset Fed Bets — Crypto Faces a Key Macro Test U.S. inflation data due Wednesday could become the biggest macro catalyst of the week, testing Wall Street’s recent rally and reshaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision. Economists expect July CPI to rise around 3.4% year over year, with core inflation near 2.5%. The data arrive after a surprisingly weak July jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy losing 23,000 jobs and triggered a sharp reduction in expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Markets now price roughly a 44%–45% probability of a September hike, down significantly from levels seen before the employment report. That makes the CPI release particularly important: a cooler-than-expected reading could further unwind hawkish bets, while a hotter print could quickly revive concerns about tighter monetary policy. For Wall Street, the stakes are high. U.S. stocks have recently pushed toward record levels, while lower Treasury yields have supported risk appetite. A softer CPI could reinforce the case for lower yields and a weaker dollar, creating a more favorable backdrop for growth stocks and risk assets. Crypto could react even more sharply. A benign CPI could strengthen the narrative of slowing inflation without an immediate need for tighter policy, potentially supporting $BTC and $ETH and encouraging capital to rotate into higher-beta altcoins. Conversely, a hotter CPI could send Treasury yields and the dollar higher, pressure equities and revive risk-off flows across crypto markets. Investors will also watch PPI, retail sales and oil prices, particularly as geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten energy markets. The key question is simple: Will CPI reinforce expectations of a less hawkish Fed — or force markets to reset those bets again? For Crypto, Wednesday’s inflation print could determine the next major direction of liquidity and risk appetite. #CPIToResetFedBets #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering $BTC $ETH

🚨 WEDNESDAY COULD DECIDE CRYPTO’S NEXT MOVE. 👀 One CPI print could completely change the market’s expectations for the Fed — and $BTC may feel it first. U.S. inflation data lands Wednesday, and this is one of the biggest macro tests of the week. July CPI is expected around 3.4% YoY, with core inflation near 2.5%. But here’s why it matters even more right now: The latest jobs report came in surprisingly weak, with the U.S. economy losing 23K jobs. That crushed some of the hawkish Fed expectations. Markets are now pricing roughly a 44–45% chance of a September rate hike. So CPI has a lot of power to move those odds again. 🟢 Cooler CPI Lower inflation → weaker Fed hike expectations → potentially lower yields → weaker dollar → stronger risk appetite. That could give $BTC and $ETH room to move higher and potentially open the door for an altcoin rotation. 🔴 Hotter CPI Higher inflation → hawkish Fed expectations return → yields and the dollar rise → risk assets come under pressure. And crypto usually doesn't wait around to react. That’s why Wednesday isn’t just another inflation report. It’s a liquidity test. Wall Street is already sitting near record levels, while falling Treasury yields have helped support risk appetite. Now the question is whether CPI reinforces that trend — or suddenly forces markets to rethink it. I’m also watching PPI, retail sales and oil prices, especially with geopolitical tensions keeping energy markets on edge. The setup is simple: Cool CPI = potential risk-on catalyst. 🟢 Hot CPI = potential volatility shock. 🔴 For $BTC and $ETH, Wednesday could be the next major decision point. Don’t trade the headline. Watch how yields, the dollar and liquidity react afterward. #CPIToResetFedBets #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit

#PayrollsDropCPIFocus Payrolls Drop, CPI Takes Center Stage The **#PayrollsDropCPIFocus** narrative is putting U.S. economic data back in the spotlight as investors weigh weaker labor-market conditions against the next major inflation readings. A slowdown in payroll growth can raise questions about economic momentum and potentially change expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. The next major focus is **CPI**, the Consumer Price Index. If inflation continues to cool, markets could become more optimistic about monetary-policy easing. Lower rates can potentially support equities and other risk assets by improving liquidity and reducing borrowing costs. However, a hotter-than-expected CPI report could have the opposite effect by reinforcing expectations that restrictive policy may remain necessary. For crypto traders, the combination of employment and inflation data is particularly important. **$BTC** and **$ETH** can react quickly to changes in interest-rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar. A softer economic backdrop does not automatically guarantee a crypto rally, but improving liquidity expectations can influence market sentiment. Investors should therefore watch payrolls, CPI, core inflation, Treasury yields, dollar strength, and Federal Reserve commentary together rather than relying on one economic indicator. The key question behind **#PayrollsDropCPIFocus** is whether weaker employment data will be followed by cooling inflation. If both trends emerge, markets could increasingly price in a more accommodative policy environment. If inflation remains sticky, volatility may continue. **$BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ $GLD** **#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #CPI #FederalReserve #Crypto #Markets**

I’ve learned the hard way that being right about direction means nothing if your timing is wrong. I still remember watching a 500U option die before dawn because I entered too early. The market eventually moved in the direction I expected—but my position was already gone. That’s exactly why I’m being more careful with $BTC right now. The Non-Farm Payrolls data came out two days ago, and the first market reaction was pretty clear: BTC jumped from around 64,750 to above 65,350, before pulling back toward 64,800 and entering sideways consolidation. The direction still isn’t fully decided. The employment data itself was a clear miss. July NFP fell by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of around 80,000. On top of that, May and June payrolls were revised down by another 103,000. At first glance, that looks bearish for the economy and bullish for rate-cut expectations. But there’s a catch. The unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, largely because labor-force participation declined. So the market can't simply look at the jobs data and immediately price in a recession. That’s why the next battle is no longer really about NFP. It’s CPI. The market has already absorbed the employment shock. Now everyone is asking one question: Will next Wednesday’s CPI force the Fed’s September policy expectations to change again? If CPI comes in softer than expected, rate-cut expectations could strengthen, and BTC may finally break through 65,500 and open the door to another move higher. But if CPI comes in hot, those expectations could reverse quickly, and BTC could revisit the 63,500–64,000 area. For now, BTC is stuck around 65,000, waiting for the next catalyst. A breakout needs fresh buyers. A breakdown needs a fresh negative trigger. NFP flipped half the table. CPI could flip the other half. So I’m not interested in blindly guessing the next move. I’ve already paid enough tuition to the market by getting the direction right but the timing wrong. #DailyOrbit

#PayrollsDropCPIFocus # Payrolls Drop, CPI Takes Center Stage The **#PayrollsDropCPIFocus** narrative reflects a major shift in market attention from the U.S. labor market toward inflation data. When payroll growth weakens, investors often begin asking whether economic momentum is slowing and whether the Federal Reserve may have greater flexibility to adjust monetary policy. The next major focus becomes the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)**. A softer CPI reading could strengthen expectations for lower interest rates, potentially supporting equities and other risk assets. Conversely, persistent inflation could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer and create additional volatility across financial markets. For crypto traders, the relationship is particularly important. Assets such as **$BTC** and **$ETH** can react quickly to changes in interest-rate expectations and liquidity conditions. A combination of weaker employment data and easing inflation could improve risk appetite, although market reactions are never guaranteed. Investors should also watch Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, consumer spending, and upcoming Federal Reserve commentary. These indicators can help determine whether the economy is moving toward a softer landing or facing a more significant slowdown. The key question is now simple: **Will CPI confirm that inflation is cooling, or challenge expectations for easier monetary policy?** **$BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ $GLD** **#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #CPI #FederalReserve #Crypto #Markets**

📊 The latest NFP report was much weaker than expected—and the market reaction is anything but simple. The headline number was -23K jobs, versus expectations of around +80K. On top of that, May and June payrolls were revised lower by a combined 103K. That’s a pretty sharp slowdown in the labor market. But there’s a strange contradiction: 📉 Employment is weakening 📉 Wage growth slowed to just 0.1% MoM 📈 Yet unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1% So the labor picture is sending mixed signals. The report also pushed September rate-hike expectations lower, with the probability falling from above 50% to roughly 44%. Markets are increasingly questioning whether the Fed can continue tightening. The reaction across assets has been interesting. 🟡 $XAU: Gold broke above $4,370, with futures settling near $4,399.7. The logic is straightforward: Weak jobs → less pressure for rate hikes → softer dollar → stronger gold. 🚀 $SPCX has also been extremely strong. After gaining around 6% on its unlock day, it jumped another 15.83% following the NFP release, closing near $133.11. From roughly $105 to $133 in just two days, that’s around a 23% move. It looks like unlock-related selling pressure has been absorbed, shorts are getting squeezed, and shifting rate expectations are adding fuel. Meanwhile, $SNDK went in the opposite direction. The stock dropped from around $1,326 to $1,200, finishing about 3.68% lower. That’s notable because weaker employment and lower rate expectations would normally be supportive for high-growth stocks. Yet AI-memory stocks remained under pressure. After already falling around 7% despite strong earnings, SanDisk’s inability to recover suggests the valuation reset in the AI-storage sector may not be finished. Seagate fell more than 10%, while Western Digital dropped over 5%. So the takeaway is clear: The NFP report was weak, but markets are responding very differently across assets. The next big focus: CPI. 👀 #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering

The jobs report moved September pricing. CPI may decide it. U.S. payrolls fell 23K in July versus expectations for ~85K growth, marking the first negative month since February. May and June were revised down by a combined 103K: · May: 129K to 63K · June: 57K to 20K The slowdown is broader than one month. Payroll growth averaged 34K over the past year, while average hourly earnings were nearly flat in July and wage growth cooled to 3.2% YoY. But the 4.1% unemployment rate does not tell a straightforward story. The labor force shrank by 264K, pushing participation down to 61.4%, its lowest level in more than five years. The headline payroll decline also included a 50K drop in local government education, a category vulnerable to seasonal distortions. Still, weakness extended to retail and financial activities, while health care added only 22K jobs, below its recent average. Following the jobs report on Aug 7, CME FedWatch assigned roughly a 44% probability to a 25 bp September hike, while Kalshi showed around 64% odds of no change as of Aug 8. Those figures come from different markets and methodologies, but both point to the same conclusion: September is still open. Now the focus shifts to July CPI on Aug 12. Consensus expects headline inflation to ease slightly to around 3.4% YoY from 3.5%. But headline CPI is only part of the story. June core CPI was lower at 2.6%, so the real test is whether energy pressure begins spreading into underlying goods, housing and services. For crypto, weaker employment and wage growth can reduce pressure for tighter policy and pull Treasury yields lower. But if softer hiring develops into a deeper growth slowdown, the liquidity-positive interpretation becomes less straightforward. A hotter CPI, especially at the core level, could quickly revive hike pricing. A softer print would strengthen the case for holding rates steady and shift attention toward whether labor-market cooling continues. Will CPI confirm the post-payroll move toward no change, or put a September hike firmly back on the table? #PayrollsDropCPIFocus

Let's talk about the non-farm payroll data. I was stunned after reading it and couldn't say a word for a while. -23,000, the expectation was +80,000, a difference of 100,000. The data for May and June was also revised down by a total of 103,000. The previous two months were revised down by 100,000, and this month it directly turned negative. Honestly, the cooling speed of the job market is quite fierce. (The power of capital is still too strong) But what's even more contradictory is the unemployment rate, which dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Employment is contracting, but the unemployment rate is falling. These two data points together indicate mixed signals. Wage growth also slowed, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 50% to about 44%. The market thinks the Fed can't raise rates anymore. Then the market reaction was very interesting—not a broad rally, but a split. $XAU broke through $4370, futures closed at $4399.7, standing above the $4400 mark. Weak employment → rate hike cooling → weak dollar → gold rises, this chain makes perfect sense. I've been watching $SPCX these past two days. It rose 6% on the unlock day, then surged 15.83% after the non-farm data, closing at $133.11. It climbed from around $105 to $133, a cumulative increase of about 23% over two days. The unlock bearishness has been digested, shorts are covering, and rate cut expectations are pushing it up. The rise is too strong, and I'm the happiest 😂 SanDisk $SNDK plunged from 1326 to around 1200 last night, closing down 3.68%. Weak non-farm data → lower rate hike expectations → high valuation growth stocks should benefit, but SanDisk was hit instead. Previously, despite earnings beating expectations, it fell 7%. This time, even with the non-farm data being favorable, it didn't recover, indicating that the valuation adjustment for AI storage is not over yet. Seagate fell over 10%, Western Digital dropped over 5%, the whole sector is under pressure. Let's expect something. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus

US JOBS DATA JUST HIT MARKETS LIKE A TRUCK July payrolls came in at -23K. The forecast was +80K. That is the worst print we have seen in 2026 so far. And it gets worse. May and June were both revised down by a combined 103K jobs. That is three straight months of softer numbers and big revisions. The "strong labor market" story is cracking. Markets reacted instantly. The DXY dropped hard. 2 Year Treasury yields fell about 8 basis points. 10 Year yields slipped around 6 basis points. Gold jumped roughly $40. Nasdaq opened up 0.77 percent. S&P 500 opened up 0.33 percent. This is bigger than one bad headline. Three months of weakening jobs and downward revisions are forcing a rethink. If labor keeps cooling, the pressure on the Fed flips from tightening to easing. What does that mean going forward. Lower rate expectations, a weaker dollar, and more liquidity flowing into gold and crypto. Risk assets get a tailwind if this trend continues. Bottom line: the labor market is losing momentum fast. If the next few reports confirm it, expect the macro narrative to shift and capital to rotate accordingly. Watch $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL closely in this environment. #SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryStressTest #PayrollsDropCPIFocus

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh would be open to a September rate hike if upcoming inflation data comes in hot and markets begin pricing in higher borrowing costs, according to people familiar with his thinking. The report adds to the renewed focus on whether the Fed may have to turn more hawkish if inflation pressure reaccelerates. 2. Michael Burry reportedly opened large short positions in Nebius $NBIS at $211.77 and Oracle $ORCL at $144.63, marking the first time he has taken a position in $NBIS. Burry framed the trade around AI infrastructure leverage and off-balance-sheet obligations, saying: “The fish have gorged themselves on off-balance sheet liabilities. Backstops. Uncommenced leases. Purchase commitments. The fish have gotten very fat, very large, easy to shoot. Also, so large that it shan’t be long before every last one keels over for lack of oxygen.” 3. Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI reported Q2’26 revenue of $191.9M, slightly ahead of estimates of $190M and up 86% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.06 versus $0.01 expected, while non-GAAP net income reached $5.5M, above estimates of $1.7M. For Q3, the company guided revenue to $255M–$290M versus $278M expected, with EPS of $0.11–$0.26 and non-GAAP gross margin of 29%–30.5%. Management said AAOI delivered record revenue for the 5th consecutive quarter and returned to non-GAAP profitability, while noting that demand is expected to outpace production capacity through mid-2027. 4. The June JOLTS report showed job openings easing by 178,000 to 7.359M, missing estimates of 7.454M, though openings remain above the January 2020 level of 7.124M. The openings-to-unemployed ratio edged up to 1.04, the highest since January 2025. Hiring improved, with hires rising 96,000 to 5.348M and the hiring rate increasing to 3.4%, led by health care and construction. Quits, a key measure of labor market confidence, rose 79,000 to 3.232M, the highest in nearly a year, while layoffs were essentially flat at 1.766M with the layoff rate unchanged at 1.1%. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.9M contracts, $SPCX with 1.7M contracts, $AAPL with 1.3M contracts, $TSLA with 1.2M contracts, $MU with 820K contracts, $MSFT with 690K contracts, $INTC with 586K contracts, $HTZ with 584K contracts, $PLTR with 477K contracts, and $ET with 473K contracts. 6. Private business investment in AI-related categories jumped $300B YoY in Q2 2026, up 25% to a record $1.5T annualized rate. The increase was led by spending on computers and peripheral equipment, followed by communication equipment, software, and data centers. Over the last two years, AI-related business investment has surged $500B, or 50%, with investment in computers and peripherals more than doubling. Direct AI investment is now estimated to account for 25%–33% of recent U.S. GDP growth. 7. Google $GOOGL is reportedly planning to raise money through a U.S. investment-grade bond offering. The company has started marketing notes in as many as 10 parts, with maturities ranging from 2 years to 40 years, according to Bloomberg. Initial price talk for the longest-dated tranche is around 1.55 percentage points above Treasuries. 8. Tether purchased 14 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, bringing total holdings to a record 146 tonnes, now worth roughly $18.8B. The company previously bought 53 tonnes between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, with its gold holdings more than doubling since Q1 2025 and their value nearly tripling over the same period. Tether is now the largest known private holder of gold outside of central banks and governments. In the first half of 2026, only 4 central banks bought more gold than Tether: Poland, Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan. 9. Amazon $AMZN founder Jeff Bezos filed for the sale of 1,209,649 Amazon shares at $286.41 per share. The transaction brought in roughly $346.5M before taxes. 10. U.S. data center construction spending jumped 46% YoY in June to a record $68B annualized rate, the largest annual increase in 12 months. Since January 2024, spending has surged 158% and is now more than 3x higher than 2022 levels. At the same time, office construction spending has fallen by more than $25B since 2022 to roughly $43B, the lowest since 2016. Data center construction now exceeds office construction by $25B, the widest gap on record, a massive reversal from 2022 when office construction was $57B higher than data centers. 11. Trading activity in the Memory ETF $DRAM has surged to extreme levels, with daily volume reaching as high as roughly $8B, surpassing the $5B peak that ARKK hit during its 2020–2021 mania. Cumulative flows into $DRAM have climbed to around $27B, already above ARKK’s peak of roughly $18B, despite DRAM only launching in April 2026. The comparison is not perfect since DRAM tracks profitable memory chip companies rather than the mostly unprofitable growth names that dominated ARKK, and today’s rate environment is very different from 2020. Still, ARKK’s flows eventually peaked and reversed for years, while $DRAM is already down nearly 40% from its June high. 12. Alibaba $BABA reportedly plans to seek revenue sharing for the next version of its open-source Qwen AI model, while Moonshot is asking partners for up to a 30% revenue share for its Kimi K3 model, according to Reuters. The move suggests China’s leading AI labs are starting to push harder on monetization as open-source model adoption scales. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.