Innlegg

I’ve learned the hard way that being right about direction means nothing if your timing is wrong. I still remember watching a 500U option die before dawn because I entered too early. The market eventually moved in the direction I expected—but my position was already gone. That’s exactly why I’m being more careful with $BTC right now. The Non-Farm Payrolls data came out two days ago, and the first market reaction was pretty clear: BTC jumped from around 64,750 to above 65,350, before pulling back toward 64,800 and entering sideways consolidation. The direction still isn’t fully decided. The employment data itself was a clear miss. July NFP fell by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of around 80,000. On top of that, May and June payrolls were revised down by another 103,000. At first glance, that looks bearish for the economy and bullish for rate-cut expectations. But there’s a catch. The unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, largely because labor-force participation declined. So the market can't simply look at the jobs data and immediately price in a recession. That’s why the next battle is no longer really about NFP. It’s CPI. The market has already absorbed the employment shock. Now everyone is asking one question: Will next Wednesday’s CPI force the Fed’s September policy expectations to change again? If CPI comes in softer than expected, rate-cut expectations could strengthen, and BTC may finally break through 65,500 and open the door to another move higher. But if CPI comes in hot, those expectations could reverse quickly, and BTC could revisit the 63,500–64,000 area. For now, BTC is stuck around 65,000, waiting for the next catalyst. A breakout needs fresh buyers. A breakdown needs a fresh negative trigger. NFP flipped half the table. CPI could flip the other half. So I’m not interested in blindly guessing the next move. I’ve already paid enough tuition to the market by getting the direction right but the timing wrong. #DailyOrbit