I passed on both the $BERA & $INIT rounds.
I passed on @monad_xyz too....not bc they're not good tech but bc they, and other L1s, are redundant at this point in time. We have too much block space as it is. What we lack are applications to entice users and normies. That's why $HYPE has been so successful while other L1s fail: it built out the application first then the chain.
I personally think we are about to see a rapid re-rating of all L1s as users and applications become chain agnostic. Overvalued L1 VC chains are years behind schedule and have billions higher valuations than they should. The market is sniffing this out and they will make epic shorts someday as emissions continue to erode their value proposition.
Over the last few months, I was on the wrong side of the L1 trade—going long $BERA and more recently $INIT. Outside of $HYPE, it’s been incredibly difficult to make money on L1s this cycle.
That said, some new L1s are launching in Q2, and if patterns hold, there’s still opportunity. The best approach seems to be scalping or swinging the initial pop—then moving on. Don’t get attached. High RR trades this cycle have rarely come from holding.
Holders have consistently been punished, while disciplined scalpers have been rewarded. I don’t expect that dynamic to change.
With the sheer number of L1s and the dilution across ecosystems, most will likely continue to underperform—and present solid short legs for pair trades, especially as team and investor unlocks hit.
Foundation decisions have also made holding even riskier. BERA arbitrarily changed inflation schedules, ramp speeds, and collapsed the BGT LST premium. INIT cut LP rewards by 80% overnight due to a "mistake," triggering a wave of unstaking. In both cases, the community got hit while teams/investors were protected.
When the rules can change overnight, usually not in favor of liquid token holders, holding becomes a liability—not a strategy.
In this environment, agility matters more than conviction. The L1 game has changed—it's no longer about holding for ecosystem growth, but extracting value where momentum aligns briefly with liquidity.
Respect the trade, respect the risk, and don’t fall in love with narratives. Until fundamentals catch up or teams start prioritizing tokenholder alignment, most new L1s are better treated as short-term trades, not long-term investments.
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