Vitalik said that next year's upgrade might be the last "understandable" upgrade for Ethereum. All subsequent upgrades will be about cryptography and quantum resistance. Old developers won't recognize it anymore. Exciting, right? If you're an old developer, are you angry? He's so cocky. Why change it this way? Right now, every node has to recalculate the entire ledger. In the future, no need to calculate it anymore, just glance at the "I calculated correctly" proof submitted by the other party. The result is one word: fast. A block takes 4 to 8 seconds, eventually settling at 8 to 32 seconds. Back in 2015, you had to wait 200 seconds, and now it still probably takes a few minutes. Why is it still called blockchain after the change? Vitalik said: mainly out of habit, haha, want to punch him. Let me sound professional first: Hegota is likely the last normal fork of Ethereum. The testnet will launch on October 6, the mainnet is scheduled for Q4 this year but the date isn't set yet. Then comes Hegota, definitely next year. I wrote an article this morning and will rant again tonight. When everyone praises that last normal upgrade, shouldn't we try to understand it differently? A network telling you "you don't need to understand what I change in the future" is not progress, it's handing over power, it's a compromise to capital. Speaking of speed, you've already got instant transactions on L2, who benefits from the mainnet producing blocks every few seconds? Also, after the change, it won't be called blockchain anymore, so the competitor isn't other chains, it's Amazon's cloud services. The faster it gets, the more computing power and storage it requires.

Why hasn't Bitcoin kept up even though global money supply has increased? The money supply of the world's four major economies has reached a historic high. $103.66 trillion, and that's the figure from August. But what about Bitcoin? It still hasn't broken 100,000, currently hovering around 84,000. Gold is also falling. More money, but assets haven't risen. Why? Because this $103 trillion is denominated in US dollars. Year-over-year, calculated in dollars, it rose 8%, but at a fixed exchange rate, only 4.5%. The bulk of the record is due to the dollar weakening in conversion. It’s not that that much more money was actually printed. Here's the key point: many cynics think a lot more money must have been printed, but the Federal Reserve hasn't actually printed money, surprising, right? In the past year, its balance sheet only increased by about $141 billion. The record is in the level, not the amount of liquidity. Bitcoin has never tracked the total money supply, but the money supply growth rate. The peaks in 2017, 2021, and 2025 all corresponded with peaks in M2 growth rate. Many probably don’t understand this, In plain terms: Bitcoin’s big rallies never happened when there was the most money, but during the months when money was increasing fastest. But the growth rate started cooling off at the end of 2025. You can understand it this way: Money is still increasing, just not as fast as before; the faucet isn’t turned off, just turned down since the end of 2025. What’s more troublesome is that money has become more expensive. The Fed raised interest rates to 3.75%–4%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.225%

Is Ethereum no longer just a blockchain? Vitalik himself said it. So what exactly is it now? A cryptographic world computer—that's the term he used. Half blockchain, half cryptography, all upgraded together: There are 5 of them, can you name one? You can't, I can't, and even half of those who retweet Vitalik can't. This shows that they aren't truly investing in Ethereum, at least not qualified, haha. 1 FOCIL makes transaction censorship harder; in plain terms, if someone wants to censor you, it won't be so easy anymore. 2 EIP-8288 fixes the broken economic model. 3 Lean consensus trims the bloat. What does that mean? It means simplifying Ethereum's consensus rules by cutting redundancies and historical baggage, making the base layer lighter and less prone to bugs. 4 Formal verification—let math write you a guarantee: this code absolutely follows the rules, not just a lucky guess after a few tests without errors. 5 Privacy is no longer an empty promise, security becomes real, and speed is no longer an excuse. Vitalik arranged for the Hegota upgrade to launch first as the spearhead upgrade, setting the stage so that the tougher features (FOCIL, EIP-8288, etc.) can follow one by one. This is not a whitepaper fantasy. This is the next version of Ethereum, already on the roadmap. The only real question: are you still watching? After he finished speaking, the market didn’t even bat an eye. I’m thinking

The day after tomorrow, on the 30th, a $202 billion U.S. Treasury settlement will take place. This isn't about crypto speculation; both positive and negative factors could impact Bitcoin's price. Everyone is guessing: will it rise or fall? What truly determines its market trend is something you don't even look at. How does the money flow? The debt must be settled. Buyers have to pay real cash. If they don't have enough money, they borrow from the repo market. You probably haven't even thought about this. When new debt increases, repo rates get pushed up. Overnight borrowing in dollars becomes more expensive. When it gets expensive, liquidity tightens. When liquidity tightens, risky assets tremble first: Bitcoin is the easiest to be dumped. Of course, the market is still calm now. Reserves seem sufficient. No one is watching whether the rise in interest rates affects Bitcoin's funding. No one has measured it, and it's impossible to measure now; we have to wait for the 30th settlement, but we can prepare half a day in advance. How to prepare? Look at SOFR, commonly called the U.S. stock overnight repo rate in Chinese. It's the thermometer for short-term dollar borrowing. When it jumps, the dollar panics. Watching the repo market, in plain terms, means: using Treasury bonds as collateral to borrow cash overnight and redeem it the next day with some interest. You only notice when Bitcoin falls, but these two indicators alarmed half a day earlier. And they move first, then Bitcoin moves. If you trade contracts or do short-term swings, these two indicators will help you. Do you think this pressure will pass on to Bitcoin?

Five things filled up this week. I actually think the sixth thing, which isn't on the calendar, is the real danger. Monday: Bank of Japan releases July meeting minutes (watch for hints on rate hikes). Wednesday: U.S. releases August PCE inflation data (the Fed's most watched inflation indicator). Wednesday: U.S. releases final Q2 GDP figures (measuring economic health). Thursday: U.S. releases ISM manufacturing index (reflecting industrial activity). Friday: U.S. releases September nonfarm payroll report (key employment data, impacts rate cut expectations). People fear their money being overturned by an invisible hand, so they are willing to trade a checklist of what must be watched this week for a psychological safety net I've already prepared, even if those who make the final decisions don't reveal a word. In life, too, most people are eager for answers, so they plan and make schedules, so they can sleep at night. What you really want is a known risk. But known risks are already priced in. What can really flip the table is that blank space. No one warned, so no one was prepared. Liquidity quietly tightens, some big player quietly reduces positions. These don't make headlines but act first. So don't just count the scheduled items. Ask yourself: where is it unusually quiet? Remember this: the longer the checklist, the more it shows no one truly knows. What you buy and see is security, not answers. Because smart money doesn't watch this week. It watches the traps laid last year.

Has the correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar finally been broken? Bitcoin and the US dollar have never been friends. When one rises, the other should fall. This has been a formula written in many people's minds for ten years. But now, they are both moving up together. Staring at the screen, my heart skips a beat. Is it time to rewrite the rules? Not so fast. Rising together does not mean the relationship is broken. They have synchronized before. But every time, in the end, they went their separate ways. This time feels more like a brief cooling-off period after a breakup. What really matters is not how aligned they are today. But whether Bitcoin can hold its ground if the dollar continues to strengthen in the coming weeks. If it can hold, that’s the real signal. If it can’t, it’s back to the old script. Remember? Enemies don’t eat from the same pot.

October must rise? October hasn't arrived yet, but the whole screen is already shouting that the bull market has started, and I just want to laugh. A month that can make people pay just because of its name is itself a trap. What you most want to ask is whether this time it still works? Can you get on board? Let's start with the big premise. The myth of October was earned by Bitcoin itself. Now look at this year's position. Last October, it didn't rise. The momentum of continuous rise has already been interrupted once. Momentum, once broken, is no longer momentum. Think seriously for three seconds: A rule that even outsiders have heard of as "October must rise," can it still be called a rule? What we really need to focus on now are these three things. Whether real money has actually come in. Whether ETF inflows are accelerating. And whether the chips on the chain have started to loosen. Only when these three are in place can it be called the October market. Bitcoin now listens to the US dollar, listens to US Treasury bonds, not the calendar. After being dominated by ETFs, institutions, and macro liquidity, seasonality has long since become invalid.

Are those 1.1 million bitcoins really Satoshi Nakamoto's? Or have they long been burned? I'll give the answer first: this is an unfalsifiable hypothesis. Those 1.1 million BTC of Satoshi Nakamoto have never been moved. Either it's the biggest dump risk in human history, Or the largest permanent destruction. If they haven't been moved, maybe the keys are already lost. That would be the biggest destruction in human history. The same fact, two completely opposite interpretations: The biggest dump risk, or permanently out of circulation. And the dividing line between these two possibilities, we will never see. But have we ever really thought that he actually owns 1.1 million bitcoins? Or that these 1.1 million bitcoins must be his? Because the phrase "never moved" itself is zero information, right? Many facts that everyone says are true have eventually been proven false. What about this time?

Fidelity's macro chief, named Julien Thimmes, used "pure math" to calculate that Bitcoin could rise to 300,000 by 2029. The model is called: Power Law. Notice something? These elites are best at inventing new terms and models. I dug through it and translated it into plain language: draw a line representing the price over the past decade or so, then extend that line to 2029 and see where it points. Sounds scientific, but this line has a flaw no one mentions: the logarithmic curve flattens out more and more over time. So its subtext is actually: it will rise, but the annual growth multiples will shrink. What worries me more is this sentence afterward: he said the previous 56% and 63% crashes also "completely fit within the framework." If a 63% drop is considered a successful fit, then this thing can never be falsified, right? Isn't that nonsense? Tell me, is it predicting Bitcoin, or itself? Also, Fidelity itself is selling a Bitcoin spot ETF. And he didn’t say a word about "what if he’s wrong," only a target of 300,000 and a trigger at 82,500. I actually think the 82,500 number is more meaningful. Predictions are free; positions are real. He didn’t say at what price he plans to sell, haha. From 82,266 to 300,000, 3.6 times in three years. According to Bitcoin’s own history, this is a deceleration expectation. Using the most bullish tone, he gave the most conservative judgment. We have to learn from this; it’s the art of language. So don’t take the big shots’ words too seriously. The world TM is just a makeshift troupe.

Money has come in, so why hasn't the price caught up? A weekly inflow of 2.39 billion into BTC spot ETFs, everyone is shouting that institutions are back. By the way: the mindless ones are easily hyped. I broke down the daily data to make it clear: Monday 999 million, Tuesday 715 million, Wednesday 347 million, Thursday 191 million, Friday 134 million. Shrunk by 87% over five days. During the same period, the price also dropped from 87,000 to 84,000. This is not fueling the price, it's like slowly loosening the grip. So does the ETF money really move the price? It's not that simple; derivatives, liquidity, and macro factors are all mixed in. Does 2.39 billion sound big? Tossed into the BTC market, it's just so-so. So only two possibilities remain: Either this batch of money isn't big enough, or someone on the other side is selling even more. But don't be quick to despair. Look at our respected miners, BTC mining cost has been below 85,000 for a full 280 days. Nine months, the entire network of miners has been mining at a loss, not a single machine stopped. Pretty resilient, right? This week it just went above and then dropped back down. Miners have been losing money for nine months without shutting down. Would you call this fragile or tough? Without these people, Bitcoin wouldn't even hold at 80,000.