wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
975Following
4.4Kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
The weekend market gave a little sweetness: $BTC lifted slightly around seventy-seven thousand, $ETH stood back above 2250, and $SOL also bounced a bit. I can already imagine some people starting to shout "The bottom is in, a rebound is coming."
Pouring cold water: It's the weekend, with pitifully thin volume. A rebound on thin volume is the least valuable; a single large order can push it up, and just as easily slap it back down.
The real bottom isn't formed by such a slight lift. The bottom is formed by heavy volume selling, by panic sellers handing over chips, and after the price can't fall further, it holds steady for several days to confirm. What we have now looks more like a breather after a waterfall drop. Don't rush to interpret this breather as a turnaround. Watch the volume, not the candle colors.
It's the end of the month, and a bloody week has just wrapped up. Reviewing these past few days, what I'm most satisfied with isn't dodging a particular drop, but mostly staying empty-handed and not making reckless moves.
The bulk of my account is in cash, with only a small position left for speculative play, the kind where you accept the outcome. Having played poker for over a decade, the hardest hand is never going all-in, but decisively folding when faced with a community card you can't read. Trading follows the same principle: when you can't see clearly, a light position itself is a position, and the hardest to hold, because it forces you to resist the urge to act.
Bullets are kept for the truly clear shot. $BTC
A signal easily overshadowed by market sentiment: the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back below 5% in the past two days, with funds quietly moving into bonds. Strangely, at the same time, gold is falling, and $BTC is also dropping.
Bonds rising, gold falling, crypto falling—this combination says a lot. This is not "risk-off"—true risk-off would mean rushing to gold; this is "deleveraging": the entire market is indiscriminately withdrawing liquidity, covering margin calls, and cutting any positions that can be liquidated, with no one caring about which is safer.
The worst thing in this phase is rushing to bottom-fish. When liquidity is contracting, even cheap assets can get cheaper, because sellers are not bearish by choice but forced to sell. Wait until the deleveraging stops before talking about the bottom. How far do you think this round of deleveraging has gone?
Those watching the market today should have felt it: $BTC broke below eighty thousand and slid all the way down to around seventy-seven thousand, but the real weakness was behind it—$ETH fell below 2250, and $SOL once dropped just above 93, with both dropping more sharply than BTC.
This relative strength is crucial. If external risk-averse funds were withdrawing, BTC would usually be the first to falter, dragging altcoins down with it; but now BTC is relatively strong, while ETH and altcoins lead the decline, indicating this round is a purge of the crypto market's own leverage and sentiment—an internal clearing, not a lack of macro risk-averse buying support.
In a market weak from internal factors, rebounds are mostly opportunities for people to reduce positions, not signals to get in. Don’t mistake ETH’s oversold condition as a "cheaper BTC" to catch. Are you holding mostly BTC now, or a bunch of altcoins?
Today's news that should be marked on the calendar: Anthropic's IPO filing hides nearly 900 billion USD in "off-balance-sheet liabilities" — future leasing and procurement commitments for servers, electricity, and data centers, all off the books, only visible if you dig into the financial report notes.
This is the most surreal aspect of this AI wave. On the surface, everyone compares valuations and revenue growth rates, but no one wants to seriously calculate: when will this money actually be earned back? Intel's overnight plunge of nearly 30% and Google's repeated questioning about free cash flow show that the market has started to seriously ask this question.
When an industry's expansion relies on off-balance-sheet obligations to hold up, a clearing is not far off. As the tail end of the risk asset chain, $BTC shouldn't be expected to remain unaffected at times like this. Who do you think will be the first to burst in this AI wave?
The drama with memory stocks these past two days is quite interesting: Hynix and Samsung's earnings reports are both explosive, with memory shouting about shortages lasting until 2028, yet the stock prices have actually been falling these days. SNDK dropped more than ten points in one go from its high, making many people panic.
I look at it from the opposite angle. Explosive earnings reports but the stock price can't hold up precisely indicate that the good news has already been priced in early, and what's left are profit-takers looking for excuses to exit. The real second wave of shorts worth catching isn't in the panic-induced dip to chase at market price now, but in the rebound that tricks those who missed out back into the market.
In poker, this is called being not results-oriented: if the cards aren't right, you don't bet, even if you know the direction is correct. Save your bullets and wait for that rebound. Are you rushing to bottom-fish or waiting?
Here's a counterintuitive thought: on highly volatile days, what really makes you lose money is often not picking the wrong direction, but being too active.
When a waterfall drop hits, the numbers jumping all over the screen push you to trade one order after another. Staying still feels uncomfortable, and you always think every big red candle is an opportunity. But in 90 out of 100 reviews, people who repeatedly enter and exit on these days, even if they pick the right direction, end up having their profits worn down into losses by the back-and-forth fees and stop-loss cuts.
When I was a professional card player, I remembered one saying: when you don't have a hand advantage, folding isn't cowardice, it's the most cost-effective move. The same applies to the market—without an edge, doing nothing is the most profitable action today.
Google is negotiating a big deal with the Pentagon: participating in Trump's $185 billion "Golden Dome" missile defense program, focusing on data security, storage, and networking.
A month ago, this kind of "national-level contract plus AI data" story was enough to push the stock price up a notch. But now? Google just took a heavy hit because its free cash flow turned negative in the earnings report, and the entire AI sector is being asked the same question: when will the money actually be made back?
This is what a sentiment turning point looks like: the same "burning money for the future" narrative, the market applauded you in the first half, but in the second half, it starts asking for the bill. No matter how big the order is, it can't support a valuation system that has already shifted.
A piece of news worth marking on your calendar: The Trump administration has already notified Gulf allies to prepare for a possible new round of airstrikes against Iran on November 4, the day after the midterm elections.
When retail investors see this kind of news, their first reaction is often to bet on a direction and go all in. Experienced traders do the exact opposite: for a binary event with a specific date, the most important thing is not to guess the outcome but to manage your leverage carefully and avoid being wiped out overnight by a gap.
Whether there will be a strike or not, and how oil prices will move afterward, I don't know, and neither does the market. But I do know one thing: going in with high leverage on a bombshell date marked on the calendar is not bravery; it's leaving your fate to luck.
Today the market cap rankings quietly changed their order: Apple at 5.03 trillion surpassed Nvidia, reclaiming the global number one spot. Don't underestimate this ranking; the market is voting with real money. This round, it started rewarding "free cash flow" and punishing "empty promises."
Apple rose 27% over the past year, with restrained capital expenditures and strong cash reserves; Nvidia dropped 10% in the past month, carrying the valuation burden of the entire AI arms race. The trend has truly shifted.
The same logic applies to the crypto world: in the phase of deflating bubbles, whoever props up their narrative by burning money will be the first to be repriced. Recently, I cut my leverage to the floor and hold mostly cash—not because I'm bearish on anyone, but because I recognize that restraint itself is alpha. $BTC
