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#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注
2.4 million ZEC of Zcash voted, but no one voted on the most significant decision.
▪️ Voting: 99.9% want 25-second block times, 98.9% to keep halving, 96.6% to push NSM issuance to 2031
▪️ Schedule set: 10/6 testnet, 10/20 mainnet finalized, 11/5 activation
▪️ On July 28, the Orchard shielded pool, accounting for about 20% of circulating supply, was permanently closed
▪️ Cause: a vulnerability discovered in May, existing since 2022, that allowed coin creation out of thin air without leaving traces
The disagreement is not about support rates, but that those who can vote and those who cannot are not the same. The votes decide the experience, while the pool closure affects the ledger — the latter is much faster and no one waits for voting.
Shielded pool inflows and outflows are public, but the inside is not, so "whether it has been exploited" can never be proven. The solution is not a patch but a structural change: a gate switch — outflows cannot exceed the amount verified as deposited.
A correction: ZEC is at its highest since October 2016, not an all-time high — its historical peak is 3,191.93; Bitcoin is also about 38% below its own all-time high. The direction is neutral.
Should we focus on the activation on 11/5 or the progress of Orchard migration?The probability of an interest rate hike in October is over 55%, and the easiest mistake to make now is:
Seeing 55% and immediately selling the coins you hold.
But the market has a very realistic rule:
If everyone already knows the real negative news in advance,
the price usually starts to react early.
What you really need to watch now is not "whether there will be a hike,"
but in the next few days:
Will BTC drop on its own first;
Will ETH be noticeably weaker than BTC;
Will volatile coins like SOL and XRP continue to attract funds.
If the news gets increasingly hawkish,
but the price keeps failing to drop further,
then don’t rush to follow the sentiment.
Because sometimes the harshest thing in the market isn’t the drop.
It’s scaring everyone out first, then suddenly pulling back.Garrett Jin heavily shorted $ZEC, with an unrealized loss nearing $30 million. Why does he still choose to hold on?
On-chain data shows that the well-known whale Garrett Jin's short position in $ZEC currently has an unrealized loss close to $30 million. Despite the market continuing to rise, he has not chosen to cut losses and exit, instead stubbornly holding his position.
His underlying logic is straightforward: no matter how bizarre the coin's movement is, it ultimately cannot escape value reversion; the ultimate goal of the main force pumping the price is to complete distribution at the high point. As long as the major players have not finished distributing their chips, the market is just an artificially inflated price pushed by capital, and once the capital leaves, the price will inevitably fall back.
However, from an observer's perspective, this logic has significant flaws. The privacy coin $ZEC has highly concentrated chips, and the main players can manipulate order flow to spike prices arbitrarily, creating an independent market detached from the overall market and fundamentals. Even if the logic is ultimately correct, under contract leverage, a short-term extreme price surge is enough to trigger liquidation; the position can be forcibly closed before the market reverts. Garrett Jin previously made tens of millions in profits from short trades on ZEC, and his past success has strengthened his bearish conviction. But times have changed; this round of capital consolidation is far stronger than expected, and the cost of holding against the trend continues to grow.
This case also serves as a good trading warning: a correct directional judgment does not guarantee profitable trading. In leveraged trading, both time and volatility can be killers. When unrealized losses keep expanding, holding on to fight is inherently a very high-risk behavior.$ZEC 25x in one year, is it still possible to get in now?
From $51 to $1521, Zcash completed a market move in one year that most cryptocurrencies never achieve in a lifetime.
But what truly deserves attention is not the magnitude of the increase itself, but whether the underlying logic driving this rally is sustainable:
✅ Permanent change in investor structure brought by ETFs
✅ NU7 vote established the scarcity narrative of the “privacy version of Bitcoin”
✅ Negative funding rates + continuous short liquidations, the short squeeze structure is not yet exhausted
However, narrative-driven ≠ fundamental support. Once the price surpasses 1500, the profit and loss ratio between bulls and bears has fundamentally changed.
Do not chase longs above 1500 ZEC; 1460–1480 is a short testing zone; below 1420 the long logic re-establishes. Wait for confirmation, do not bet on direction.”
⚠️ This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 🔥105 is not just a psychological level, it's the breakout switch for $SOL
$SOL is currently around $105, mainly consolidating between $101–105 intraday, with a 24h increase of about 4%–5%. The 4H structure leans bullish flag, MACD histogram turns positive, RSI around 59, not overbought yet, indicating "momentum but not frenzy."
The key logic is simple: 105 is the watershed.
Steady close above 105 (both 4H/daily counts) → target the first level at $110, then extend to $130; Ali Charts' breakout target is 130
Pullback without breaking $100 → strong consolidation, dip-buy logic; 100 is a recent heavy chip support zone (over 40 million SOL traded and settled near 100)
Close below $100 → downgrade target to $96–98; breaking $96 would invalidate half of the rebound structure
Capital support: On 9/16, US spot SOL ETF net inflow was about $837K, total assets about $1.38B, accounting for 2.38% of SOL market cap; September still sees net inflow but at a slower pace than August (August total about $193.5M, recent weekly inflow only in the tens of millions).
Do not chase the breakout at 105, wait for a pullback to 102–103 or a steady close above 105 to follow; weekend volume is thin, false breakouts are common, stop loss should be set below 100 on daily close. $SOL #LongYields5%NewNormal The 10-year Treasury yield has briefly moved above 5%, while the 30-year yield has climbed above 5.3%. Markets are reacting to a combination of renewed Fed tightening, persistent inflation risks and concerns about the amount of government debt that private investors must absorb. Mortgage rates have followed higher, with the average 30-year fixed rate reaching 6.95%.
A sustained 5% long-term yield would change the valuation framework for almost every major asset class. Growth stocks, real estate and speculative crypto projects become less attractive when investors can earn a comparatively high return from government bonds. At the same time, banks and insurers may benefit from higher yields. My view is that “5% as the new normal” should be treated as a scenario, not a certainty. The path of inflation and fiscal policy will determine whether this becomes a durable regime or a temporary spike.People who want to run away when they see “October rate hike 55%+,” hold on a moment.
I only ask one question:
If this news is realized tomorrow, how much do you think BTC will drop?
If your answer is “definitely a crash,”
then you’re not trading the market.
You’re trading fear.
Because what the market truly fears is never news that everyone already knows.
What’s most feared is:
When everyone thinks it won’t drop, and then it suddenly does.
So what’s really worth watching now,
is not who’s shouting about rate hike bearishness.
But whether BTC has started to tell you in advance:
“I can’t hold on anymore.”$ZEC performs a classic long-short double liquidation, with high-leverage traders being consecutively wiped out
The $ZEC market once again shows a familiar long-short double liquidation pattern. This privacy coin has a highly concentrated chip distribution, and its order flow is easily manipulated by major funds. During trading, rapid repeated spikes occur, and whether going long or short, positions with high leverage are easily liquidated instantly.
The logic behind this round of market movement does not stem from significant fundamental changes but relies more on liquidity harvesting in the futures market. After the price surged earlier, a large number of counter-trend short positions entered, and the major players swept upward to complete a round of short squeezes; once retail sentiment was ignited and a large influx of chasing long funds arrived, they quickly reversed to slam the market down, triggering concentrated long stop-loss orders and completing a second round of harvesting. The 24-hour futures liquidation data shows simultaneous increases in both long and short liquidations, a typical feature of two-way harvesting.
From the market structure perspective, ZEC’s price often deviates from the $BTC market rhythm and exhibits strong independent volatility. Common technical indicators lose much of their reference value in such a highly controlled market. Support and resistance levels are easily violently broken by short-term funds. Relying solely on moving averages and RSI for futures trading can easily fall into traps set by the major players.
My trading approach: maintain a distant observation and avoid participating in ZEC futures battles. Even if attempting spot trading, only use a very small position size. High leverage must be absolutely avoided, and do not try to predict the tops and bottoms of spikes.PUMP Token Analysis
Market Trend
PUMP is the native token of the Solana chain meme coin issuance platform, with its price fluctuating following the meme sector's popularity. When platform traffic recovers, it tends to surge quickly; once the hype around low-quality tokens cools down, selling pressure rapidly emerges, causing significant price pullbacks. The token faces continuous unlocking pressure, gradually increasing the circulating supply.
Key Levels
Resistance: 0.00488
Support: 0.0040, if broken, look for 0.0034
Bullish Logic
The platform generates fees from token issuance and trading, with part of the revenue used to buy back and burn PUMP, creating a deflationary mechanism; as the sector's popularity rises and more new tokens launch on the platform, it drives platform trading volume and token expectations.The whole market is being pressed down by interest rate hikes, but $HYPE is rising against the trend to 86.61, just 3.5% away from its all-time high. This flywheel can't be stopped even by rate hikes.
$HYPE at 86.61, +1.82%, market cap 19.26 billion, all-time high 89.62. Today BTC +0.32%, ONE plummeted 13.21%, while it rose 1.82%, and the 24-hour range is only 85.00-86.84. The volatility is tightly suppressed yet still moving upward, which is one of the healthiest patterns. The logic is that increased volatility directly boosts perpetual DEX revenue, so rate hikes are actually beneficial for it. But 86.6 is already close to ATH, and the previous two attempts to reach 89 failed, with heavy trapped positions.
The position should be one-third of BTC. Hold above 85, reduce by half if it breaks 80, and 74 is the last defense line. Those without positions should not chase at 87; wait for a pullback to 81-82 to stabilize or a breakout above 89.62 with volume before entering. After the Federal Reserve meeting, the crypto market showed a subtle correction, with mainstream coins rebounding in sync. BTC rebounded to around 77.8K, ETH held steady at 2.49K, $SOL breaking through $105. OKX market data shows the market rose about 2.2% in a single day, BTC's market share remained at 58.2%, and funds remain focused on Bitcoin. The biggest market divergence right now: Is this rebound the beginning of a trend reversal, or is it emotional buying after news materializes—what is commonly called relief buying. From the perspective of capital and market structure, I analyze it from another perspective. Looking purely at price increases, this is just the surface; a sustainable bull market cannot rely solely on news stimulation. I set four observation scales to verify market quality: • $BTC hold the key support at 76K without effective breakout • $ETH hold above 2.4K and hold the mid-term chip concentration zone • $SOL maintain upward momentum and avoid rapid pullbacks • Counterfeit trading volume continues to expand, with funds spreading outward from Bitcoin Currently, BTC's market cap remains relatively high, indicating that incremental funds have not yet flowed widely into small and mid-cap coins, and sector rotation is not yet sufficient. This is a major concern. If only Bitcoin alone rises while altcoins remain sluggish, then this rebound is most likely just internal maneuvering of existing funds rather than a full-scale bull market. Macroeconomic pressure has not dissipated; the market prices the probability of another Fed rate hike in October surpassing 55%, and liquidity tightening expectations remain above the market. Combined with US crypto taxes,Gold's ETF recovery looks stronger today, but positioning may matter more than the headline flow gap. JPMorgan notes that IBIT carries heavier shorts and hedging than GLD, creating a potential release valve if those trades unwind.
With BTC near $76,000 after roughly $746M in US spot ETF outflows, treasury demand alone may not set the floor. A rotation needs cleaner positioning and renewed ETF absorption. NFA.
#JPMBTCMayOutperformGold Recently, Ajian has been closely observing $BTC's reaction to the 10-year US Treasury yield. I want to verify if BTC will clearly gain funding support if the 10Y yield falls back to around 4.8%. If it pushes back to 5%, will BTC immediately face pressure? If the answer to both is yes, then the 10Y yield might become a very useful auxiliary variable in BTC macro trading in the future. Conversely, it would indicate that Crypto's own funding logic is strengthening. Most people like to look left and right
hoping to learn the true essence of trading from some short article
Do you think that's logically possible?
The probability of being hit by a car on the road is very low
but everyone thinks it won't happen to them.
However, the success rate in trading is even lower than that
so why do you think you are the chosen one?
To be serious, so-called skills can be learned even by fools
So why not look at some public materials
calm down and read a few good books
listen carefully to podcasts/interviews
To be honest, the opinions of experts might seem easy to say, but in reality, the principles are just those principles
Easy to understand, hard to practice.
Think about it, after trading for so many years, how many classic trading books have you really read? Have you seriously reflected? Do you constantly summarize your methods? If not, why do you think you are making money?$SOL nex Wind Trading Notes (Evening Follow-up on 9.18):
Just finished eating and casually opened the app to check SOL. Wow, it quietly touched around 105 again. It rose 4.5% today, with a 24-hour high reaching 106.38. Honestly, those who rode this wave up from the 60-dollar bottom must be very pleased.
The logic that Qian talked about earlier regarding UNI actually applies to SOL as well. Look at the news flash in the screenshot: Solana ecosystem token PAID briefly hit a market cap of 36 million. What does this mean? It means hot money on the chain is becoming active again, the ecosystem is showing signs of improvement, and SOL naturally gains confidence. This is different from altcoins pumped purely by hype; there is real money supporting the bottom.
However, let's get back to the chart and don't get carried away. On the daily level, EMA7 is at 101.73, EMA30 at 97.97, with moving averages in a bullish alignment, so the overall trend is intact. But the previous high at 110.64 looms like a sword hanging overhead, not easy to break through in one go. RSI is currently around 60.97, not yet in the overbought zone, indicating there is still momentum to push higher, but most likely it will experience high-level consolidation and shakeout.Tesla momentum has pushed $TSLA back toward its recent $373.92 high — and that’s the level I care about now. The setup is simple: → Above $373.92: breakout becomes more credible → Retest + hold: stronger confirmation → Rejection: breakout thesis loses strength What makes this worth watching is the price reaction, not just the Tesla narrative. TSLA is close enough to resistance that chasing before confirmation gives a worse setup. For me, this is a BREAKOUT WATCH. I’d rather see TSLA close abo$DOT current price is 1.156, with the upper Bollinger band at 1.1656 as the first resistance, and the lower MA5 at 1.1424 serving as the bull-bear dividing line; MA20 at 1.0920 is the trend baseline. 24h increase is 14.12%, RSI has surged to a severe overbought zone at 80.0, price is running close to the upper Bollinger band, 30 K-line amplitude is 13.32%, volatility remains high; funding rate is +0.0100%, longs must pay to hold positions, indicating leveraged longs are already crowded. Fear and Greed Index is 56, sentiment is greedy but not extreme.
The direction is still bullish, but this is a high chase game, not a dip buy. Entry reference is 1.135–1.150, buying on pullback near MA5 without breaking MA20 is valid; Take profit 1 at 1.165, corresponding to the upper Bollinger band resistance; Take profit 2 at 1.200, an extended target after breaking the upper band; Stop loss at 1.088, breaking below MA20 means the trend structure is broken and exit is mandatory. Position size is recommended not to exceed 5% of total funds, leverage no more than 3x. Worst-case scenario: RSI 80 combined with positive funding rate, once volume breaks below MA5, it can easily trigger a long squeeze, quickly retreating below MA20, at which point losses will be amplified by leverage, so stop loss discipline takes priority over any bullish logic.Bitcoin Spot ETF
Net outflow of $450 million on September 15
Net outflow of $296 million on September 16
Net outflow of $24.2 million on September 17
Ethereum Spot ETF
Net outflow of $224 million on September 16
Turned positive on September 17 with a net inflow of $3.6 million
Three consecutive days of withdrawals, which would have triggered heavy sell-offs before
So what’s the result? $BTC is now at $76,944 with a 24-hour range of $75,972 to $77,179
$ETH at $2,465 with a range of $2,423 to $2,484
Not only hasn’t it crashed, it closed slightly bullish
What does this indicate?
It indicates that the selling pressure is from institutional channels, but the buyers are not from institutional channels
ETF outflows essentially mean asset management is reducing positions for risk control, especially on the 15th with $450 million, basically one or two large holders adjusting their portfolios
But spot prices are set by the entire market; on-chain buyers, exchange buyers, and market makers replenishing inventory do not go through the ETF channel
What’s more noteworthy is that the outflows are converging, decreasing from $450 million to $296 million and then to $24.2 million, shrinking day by day
ETH has even turned positive
The phrase “selling pressure exhaustion” is not based on feeling but on observing this continuous declining curve
Here’s a practical perspective
ETF data is a lagging indicator, so don’t use it for intraday direction, but it can be used to judge the strength of pressure
The current state is that there are profit-taking positions above and support positions below, so the market is oscillating #The US Crypto Tax and BTC Reserve Act Advances
On the 16th, the House Ways and Means Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act by 38 to 5 votes, setting tax exemption thresholds for small transactions, defining how mining and staking are taxed, and aligning wash sale rules closer to traditional assets. On the same day, the Financial Services Committee passed the US Reserve Modernization Act by 28 to 21 votes, aiming to codify Trump's 2025 executive order into law: the Treasury will manage the strategic Bitcoin reserve, with coins locked for at least 20 years, prohibiting selling, swapping, or pledging. The government reportedly holds about 207,000 coins according to Bassett in June, while on-chain statistics show figures exceeding 320,000 coins, which do not match.
The CLARITY Market Structure Act failed a procedural vote in the Senate on the 15th. The reserve and tax bills still need to pass the full House, Senate, and receive the President's signature. $BTC has recently faced interest rate hikes and the failure of Clarity, then the reserve narrative; the 20-year selling pressure reduction is not yet a done deal. How $ETH and $SOL staking taxes will be written is more relevant to holding costs than the reserve slogan. Committee approval only indicates the issue is still alive; do not interpret advancement as coins already being locked.Bitcoin is still the first chart I watch. If $BTC can defend the $75K–$76K area, it suggests risk appetite across crypto hasn't completely disappeared. Then comes $ETH. If ETH starts outperforming BTC and pushes back toward the $2.9K–$3.0K zone, that could be an early indication that capital is beginning to rotate beyond Bitcoin. And then there's $SOL. If SOL can reclaim roughly $185–$190 and start outperforming both BTC and ETH, traders may be moving further out along the risk curve. The sequen$DOT current price is 1.157, with the nearest resistance above at the Bollinger upper band 1.166, and the first support below at MA5 of 1.143. It surged 14.21% in 24h, with a trading volume of 15.3M USDT, making it the only candidate among the three to show volume-driven rally.
Horizontal strength comparison: In the same sector, $LSK dropped 13.24% in 24h, with MA5 at 0.44822 having fallen below MA20 at 0.45591, RSI only 39.6, and funding rate -0.5365% indicating crowded shorts; $EUR rose just +0.07% in 24h, Bollinger band width 0.37%, almost a flat line, showing no clear direction. $DOT, however, has MA5 at 1.1426 crossing above MA20 at 1.0921, MACD histogram +0.004892 continuing bullish momentum, and price running close to the Bollinger upper band at 1.16582 — capital in the sector clearly chose it, rather than bottom-fishing in LSK’s decline or wasting time in EUR’s sideways movement.
Risk points are also clear: RSI at 80.1 has entered the overbought zone, the fear and greed index at 56 leans greedy, and funding rate +0.0100% indicates longs are starting to pay, reducing the cost-effectiveness of chasing higher prices.
The outlook is bullish, but do not chase the current price. Entry reference is 1.138–1.148, the resonance zone of MA5 and breakout retest; if the retest holds, it is a buy opportunity. Term Structure Radar
$BTC annualized basis decreases with maturity: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +7.79%/+5.53%/+5.23% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$115.9.
$ETH annualized basis decreases with maturity: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +5.21%/+4.84%/+4.19% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$2.48.
$SOL annualized pricing at the three maturities is not monotonically arranged: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +7.93%/+1.73%/+1.86% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$0.16. The mid-term maturity breaks the monotonic pattern, and the difference between near and far terms is insufficient to describe the entire curve.
BTC, ETH: near-term annualized basis is higher than far-term, with higher annualized pricing concentrated near term.
BTC, ETH, SOL: all three maturities are at a premium. Brothers, $BTC just touched 78,000 again!
The script calculates that the MA is still in a "bearish alignment," meaning the medium- and long-term moving averages haven't fully turned around yet. But the price is now right against the MA30 wall, and 78,002 is that hurdle, which it directly tested today.
The volume ratio is 1.24, not explosive volume, but also not a shrinking volume decline; it's pushing upward with volume. The lower shadow of 0.29 isn't long, indicating today wasn't a "fake-out spike" but a solid close near the highs. RSI is 55.4, neutral to slightly strong, not overbought, so there's still room.
Funding rate is +0.0069%, bulls are finally starting to pay a premium, signaling sentiment shifting from "fear" to "greed."
My judgment: the 76,000 wave this morning was just grinding; now it really wants to break through. But brother, don't get overexcited right after a breakout. Until the bearish alignment is fully resolved, if 78,000 doesn't hold, it's a false breakout; it only counts if it holds for three days.
If you really want to join, wait for a pullback that doesn't break 78,000 before getting on board; don't chase at the spike tip. Once Bitcoin makes a clear move, the altcoins (NEAR/UNI/ARB all surged over +25% today) will be the real battlefield.$KO｜Mid-Autumn Festival consumption dividends spread across Asia-Pacific, cultural influence in multiple countries brings phased demand growth
As a reunion festival shared by the East Asian cultural sphere, the consumption dividends of the Mid-Autumn Festival are not limited to a single market. Asia-Pacific economies influenced by Chinese culture, such as South Korea, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Cambodia, all experience consumption windows for family reunions and gift exchanges among friends and relatives. Coca-Cola has simultaneously started channel stocking in these regions, with banquets, family gatherings, and gift-giving scenarios driving beverage demand.
Coca-Cola's Asia-Pacific market maintained steady growth in single-case sales last quarter and remains a core growth segment for the global group. The brand's marketing strategy has shifted to focus on actual consumption conversion, launching holiday-themed packaging in multiple markets to tie in with festive scenarios and promote terminal sales.
However, it is important to view this rationally as a seasonal pulse benefit. The sales boost from the festival is a short-term catalyst. The pricing core of US-listed $KO still anchors on global gross margins, long-term US Treasury yields, and global consumption resilience. Such holiday-driven rallies are often priced in by the market in advance and rarely directly drive medium- to long-term valuation increases.
Consumption intensity varies across regions, with Vietnam and South Korea having larger Mid-Autumn gift markets; Myanmar and Cambodia have smaller market sizes, contributing limited incremental growth. I will continue to observe and will not blindly increase positions due to holiday benefits. Consumer defensive stocks are suitable for long-term allocation, with limited short-term trading space. The focus is on tracking terminal sales data across multiple countries and changes in US Treasury yields, strictly controlling position sizes.THE MARKET IS RECOVERING, BUT A NEW TREND ISN’T CONFIRMED.
$BTC around $77.8K is holding above $76K; reclaiming $78K–$79K with volume would strengthen the structure.
$ETH is approaching $2.5K and needs to turn that level into support, not just reclaim it.
$SOL above $105 shows improving risk appetite, but continuation still matters.
I’m not watching the first green candle. I’m watching whether price, volume, and liquidity confirm together.
Recovery is a signal. Confirmation creates the trend.There has been an interesting phenomenon in the crypto space these days. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the US Senate a few days ago, and many people's first reaction was bearish. However, BTC has actually bounced back to around 77,000 in the past two days. What's even more interesting is that US regulators didn't stop just because the bill got stuck; instead, they started pushing forward rules related to tokenized stocks. This makes me a bit puzzled: what does the market really need now — a comprehensive crypto law, or regulators gradually releasing rules step by step? If more and more traditional assets like stocks and bonds move onto the blockchain in the future, will the crypto market's logic slowly shift from "coin speculation" to "financial assets on-chain"? If it really comes to this, do you think mainstream coins like BTC and ETH will benefit, or will projects focused on RWA and infrastructure have more potential? $BTC $ETH #海力士回应美国扩产传闻
The memory competition behind AI computing power is escalating
Recently, the market has been buzzing about SK Hynix expanding memory chip production in the US, but Hynix has responded: currently, there are no confirmed plans to cooperate with Intel or produce memory in the US; they are only evaluating various options to enhance global competitiveness.
Although cooperation has not yet materialized, the logic behind this news is worth attention.
First, AI computing power continues to drive memory demand. As GPUs become more powerful, the demand for high-bandwidth memory like HBM is also increasing, making memory a critical bottleneck in AI infrastructure.
Second, the US is promoting semiconductor supply chain localization. If Hynix ultimately expands capacity in the US, it is not only a business decision but also related to supply chain security, trade policies, and geopolitical factors.
Third, cost is the biggest variable. The cost of building factories in the US is significantly higher; whether they can secure long-term orders from cloud providers, policy support, and reasonable returns will determine if the project truly comes to fruition.
What is more noteworthy is that Hynix is already constructing over $4 billion worth of HBM-related facilities in Indiana, USA, indicating that its localization strategy in the US is not baseless.
My personal judgment: in the short term, this is a "rumor," but in the long term, it reflects a trend—the AI computing power battle is extending from GPUs to HBM, servers, power, and the entire supply chain.
Whoever controls high-end memory holds significant influence over AI infrastructure.
#SK海力士 #HBM #AI #英特尔 #半导体 #CryptoSilicon Valley is undergoing a profound fundamental reconstruction. In Y Combinator's recently released podcast "The State of Startups in 2026," partners used actual incubation data from the past 12 to 18 months to paint a vivid picture of entrepreneurship from the past decade: the bubble of pure software tool SaaS has burst, physical hardware technology has exploded on a large scale, software delivery models have completely shifted to "end-to-end fully automated," and the founders' profiles and power structures are being reshaped by code agents. 1. The Strong Return of Hard Technology: From "Bit" to "Atom" Over the past decade, venture capital has been almost monopolized by B2B SaaS with extremely low marginal cost and easy scalability. However, the latest data shows that the proportion of hard tech companies involved in physical entities among YC's selected teams has surged from 8% in the past to 20%, creating cluster effects across multiple niche sectors: Industrial Manufacturing and Defense Technology Restructuring: The reshoring of U.S. manufacturing and new military demand have spawned a large number of new hardware companies. From revitalizing old Detroit factories and supplying custom metals to new defense companies like Knox Metals, to Icarus, which manufactures solar-powered high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft, and Nine Mothers, which provides automated anti-drone defense systems, hard tech startups are breaking away from traditional slow cycles and even achieving high growth rates similar to software. Robotics on the Eve of Physical Intelligence: Robotics projects are in approval55%+ chance of a rate hike in October, the most likely scenario:
BTC doesn't drop much, altcoins start to slowly decline first.
Many people's first reaction is:
"No worries, BTC hasn't dropped."
But that's exactly the problem.
When macro tightening happens, funds may not immediately dump BTC.
They might first withdraw from coins with poor liquidity, high valuations, and large prior gains.
So if the following happens:
BTC sideways → ETH weakens → SOL/XRP start catching down → small-cap coins' trading volume keeps dropping
I would be more cautious than seeing BTC drop 5% in a single day.
Because this means funds might not be taking short-term profits but reducing overall risk exposure.
55% is just the expectation.
What really needs monitoring is how the funds start to act. $HYPE surged from 75 all the way to 88, what’s driving this strength?
This rally in HYPE isn’t just a simple follow-up!
Kraken plans to launch US-compliant on-chain perpetual contracts through Hyperliquid HIP-3, directly igniting market sentiment; meanwhile, platform trading volume and the buyback mechanism continue to strengthen capital attention on HYPE. 
Current price: $88.2
Support: $83–84 / $80–82
Resistance: $89.5–90
$90 is the key level!
Breakout with volume → watch 92–95;
If the rally stalls → first guard against a pullback to 83–84.
The real test is here.
#SEC与CFTC明确链上金融合规路径 SAMSUNG and SNDK Tokenized Assets: Storage Hardware Sector, Less Popular Under AI Dividend Compared to Computing Power Mainline
The tokenized assets corresponding to Samsung $SAMSUNG and SanDisk $SNDK both belong to the storage and consumer electronics sector. In theory, the massive data storage demand driven by AI should bring potential fundamental benefits to these hardware targets.
However, compared to computing power tokenized assets like NVDA and MU, the market discussion around these two is significantly less intense. The root cause lies in their focus on traditional hardware, with less impactful storytelling, making it difficult to attract concentrated incremental capital.
From market observation, their price fluctuations are relatively mild, without extreme surges or crashes, and they cannot break away from the overall market to show independent strength. On the trading side, it is important to pay attention to liquidity differences; the order book depth varies across different trading platforms, and slippage risk should not be ignored.
My operational approach: remain cautious, suitable only for small positions, absolutely not for heavy betting. Risk control always comes first, and position management is far more important than chasing short-term swing profits. Currently, I have placed these two targets in my watchlist, waiting for the overall market risk appetite and my own position conditions to be suitable before considering a small entry.#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% One hike was easy to price. A second is where things get interesting 👀
The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, while inflation remains elevated and economic activity is still described as solid. The latest projections also put the median year-end policy rate at 4.1%, keeping further tightening firmly in the conversation.
What caught my attention is how well risk assets have absorbed the higher-rate narrative so far.
If stocks and BTC can keep attracting capital while borrowing costs stay restrictive, that signals real resilience. But if valuations are quietly built around the assumption that September was a one-off, another hike could expose just how much optimism is already priced in.
The next test isn't whether markets can survive high rates. It's whether they can survive rates staying high for longer than expected.The crypto market has one more big variable from Japan. The BOJ has just raised interest rates by 25 BPS to 1.25%, the highest level in decades. For me, this is a signal to pay special attention to in the short term. Higher Japanese interest rates could: • Tighten global liquidity
• Putting pressure on yen carry trade
• Causing cash flows to withdraw from risky assets
• Make crypto more volatile Therefore, I am cautious with crypto in the short term, especially as the market has not yet fully absorbed all the liquidity risks. As🚨This time it's not about "restricting trading," but directly handling balances when the time comes! Kraken's 7 types of crypto assets for UAE users have entered the forced liquidation phase, including XMR, ZEC, DASH, and various stablecoins on the list.⚠️
According to the official announcement, the affected assets include XMR, ZEC, DASH, USDD, DAI, USDS, and USDE. The entire delisting process actually started back in June: deposits and trading stopped on June 16, withdrawals stopped at 14:00 UTC on September 14, and from September 15 to September 25, any related asset balances still not transferred out from accounts will enter the liquidation phase.
In other words, it's no longer a question of "whether to sell," but balances that were not handled in time before will be liquidated according to the platform's arrangements.
To put it plainly, it's like a mall notifying you three months in advance: "This counter is closing, please take your stuff away quickly." Trading closes first, then deposits close, and finally even the withdrawal channel is closed. If assets are not transferred out before the deadline, the remaining will enter a unified processing procedure.
This list is also interesting: on one side are assets like XMR, ZEC, DASH, which have strong privacy features or have historically been discussed as privacy coins; on the other side are stablecoins like DAI, USDS, USDE, and USDD. So this cannot simply be summarized as "only targeting privacy coins."Brothers, after the rate hike landed, $BTC didn't continue to crash and returned near 77,000, digesting part of the bearish news. But don't assume a full bull market: only a 25bp hike, and the dot plot remains hawkish—16 out of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year, and inflation forecasts haven't been lowered.
Before the market opens, I lean towards a choppy recovery rather than a one-sided surge. There's support at 76,000, with the US stock rebound, 10-year Treasury yields falling back, and ETFs seeing inflows of about $160 million; funds haven't fled. But tonight's industrial output, capacity utilization, leading indicators, plus officials' remarks, could stir rate expectations again.
The rhythm is roughly: choppy recovery during the day → testing direction around US market open → holding 76,000 and breaking above 78,000 gives a chance to approach 79,000–80,000; if 76,000 breaks, it will retest 75,000 or even lower. Watch if $ETH can hold 2,500. For $ONE, this kind of sharp altcoin surge depends on BTC's stability—if BTC is stable, it may continue to rally; if BTC weakens, it will retreat much faster.
Today is not a big bull or bear day; it's a "recovery confirmation day" after the rate hike. Tonight, focus closely on 76,000 and 78,000.
#美联储10月再加息概率破55% #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ $NVDA tokenized assets: Narrative heat is at its peak, but volatility is magnified multiple times
The AI narrative appeal of $NVDA tokenized assets is strong, but their volatility is further amplified compared to the underlying stock. Essentially, they still cannot escape the traditional pricing logic of US stocks; earnings reports and macro liquidity directly influence price trends.
I maintain strict position control on my side, currently adopting a wait-and-see approach without frequent opening of positions or trading. This type of asset is more suitable for traders with a research foundation to participate with small positions; blindly chasing hot trends carries high potential risks.
It is essential to separate long-term industry logic from short-term market fluctuations. AI computing power expansion is a long-term story, but short-term prices are more driven by market sentiment and capital flows.
When tracking such assets, I focus on anchoring to Nvidia's earnings reports and industry supply-demand changes, while also considering the overall risk appetite of the crypto market. Position management is always the top priority; do not adjust positions arbitrarily based on short-term price changes, adhere to the trading plan, and rationally evaluate the risk-reward ratio of each trade.📈5000U Challenge｜Dual Currency Yield Real Trading Diary
Day 3
Starting Capital: 5000 U
Current Account: 5082.14 U
Total Accumulated Profit: +82.14U (+1.64%)
Today's Profit: +26.37U (+0.52%)
Hello crypto big shots 😄! On Friday, a batch of dual currency yield orders matured simultaneously, triggering a wave of mass cash-outs. Most positions were 3-7 day orders, settled today in bulk, causing a slight jump in the account.
📝 Today's Real Trading Review
Friday is my concentrated settlement day, with a bunch of 3-7 day cycle dual currency yield orders maturing together.
xSNDK, xSOXL, xCRCL, ETH multiple target orders settled in bulk, system notifications flooded the screen, option profits arriving one by one.
Looking back to 3 days ago when I just started writing posts for the OKX community, I feel quite emotional. Over these days, I feel that both my trading experience and the way I share these posts have matured compared to before.
The account went from 5000U to 5050U, then I started writing posts, and today it’s at 5080U 😁. The post started 3 days ago and has accumulated over 30,000 views today.
This gradual growth feeling is really great. 😆
I don’t fantasize about getting rich overnight; I diversify into multiple small positions, exchanging time for option premiums.
Most orders smoothly received option profits without triggering exercise to take the underlying, steadily locking in gains. Even if delivery to spot happens, my cost basis is comfortable, just waiting for an uptrend cycle to sell high again 😎
A recent small insight: don’t chase big gains in dual currency yield, spread out many small orders, and enjoy the experience of collective cash-out at maturity. Of course, dual currency yield also has risky market conditions, like extreme one-sided moves, which can lead to being exercised far out of the money, so always remember the risks.
🧾 Next Plan
#OKX百万规划师 #海力士回应美国扩产传闻
Continue diversifying into TradFi tokenized US stocks + native crypto assets. I’m long-term bullish on $ETH and $SNDK, and recently $ZEC is also worth watching, though probably won’t trade it.
Use conservative targets as a base, combined with some high-volatility computing power themes, control single position size, and keep rolling reinvestment.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Personal real trading record only, not investment advice.U.S. Crypto Policy Moves on Multiple Fronts
$BTC remains at the center of the U.S. crypto policy push.
While the Senate's CLARITY Act failed to advance this week, U.S. crypto policy is still moving through other channels. The IRS has already implemented new digital-asset reporting requirements for 2026, including Form 1099-DA reporting for brokered transactions.
Meanwhile, the SEC has introduced a five-year exemption for tokenized stock trading, adding another major blockchain-market development.$BTC BTC has climbed back to 77,000—what has the crypto world been speculating on these past few days? The market has actually been quite interesting these past two days. The US CLARITY Act failed to pass the key vote, which initially caused some concern, but BTC didn't keep dropping and instead climbed back up to around $77,000. What does this mean? Simply put: the market may have already priced in this negative news in advance. And don't forget, just because the bill hasn't advanced doesn't mean the US is ignoring crypto. Recently, the SEC has been introducing new innovative exemptions, starting to leave room for on-chain finance. In other words, what the market really cares about now is no longer "whether the US will regulate," but rather how the US ultimately plans to regulate crypto. Another noteworthy signal is funding. Recently, BTC ETFs have started seeing capital inflows again, while ETH ETFs have seen continuous outflows. So we can't simply interpret it as "the bull market has fully returned" just yet. More precisely: BTC is still attracting capital, but the overall market growth needs to be monitored. As for altcoins, don't just look at BTC rising and start shouting "Altcoin season is here." The most important thing now is to look at three things: whether ETF funds continue to flow in, whether stablecoins keep growing, and whether real on-chain funds are returning. If these three data points start to strengthen in tandem, that will be the real time to get excited. So my current view is simple: BTC should first see if it can stabilize, EBitcoin Core 32.0 has entered candidate testing. One security issue fixed this time is not a private key leak, but a node that enables walletnotify may trigger system commands with a special wallet name. The scenario is simple: a user who has already passed RPC authentication and has wallet creation permission sets a constructed wallet name. When a related transaction appears, walletnotify automatically runs a preset script. If the program does not strictly treat wallet names as plain text, special characters within may be interpreted as extra commands. This does not mean "Bitcoin has been compromised." Attackers need to obtain RPC permissions for nodes first, and nodes must enable walletnotify. But it reveals a often overlooked attack path: on-chain transactions are fine, private keys are not lost, but vulnerabilities can travel along RPC, wallet names, and operating system scripts into node hosts. 32.0 also improves fee estimation and block data reading. The new method will more reference real-time transactions in the mempool, allowing fees to drop faster after congestion eases; Nodes can also read part of the data in parallel, accelerating block validation and synchronization. When running Bitcoin Core nodes, do not expose RPCs directly to the public network; Disable unnecessary walletnotify; Automatic scripts use fixed parameters and minimum system permissions. Candidate versions should be tested in isolated directories first, not directly replacedAfter the Federal Reserve meeting concluded, the market experienced subtle changes, with mainstream coins collectively entering a recovery phase
With the Federal Reserve meeting settled, the capital response in the crypto market has become intriguing.
BTC rebounded to around $77.8K, ETH held steady at $2.49K, and $SOL broke above $105. OKX market data shows the overall market rose about 2.2% throughout the day, with BTC maintaining a market dominance of 58.2%.
The core question in the current market: Is this rebound a sustainable trend reversal, or just a relief buy driven by short-term sentiment release?
I am closely monitoring four key validation indicators to assess the market quality:
• $BTC holds the critical support at $76K without effectively breaking below
• $ETH maintains above $2.4K, holding the mid-term chip range
• $SOL continues upward momentum without a rapid pullback
• Altcoin sector trading volume continues to expand, showing capital diffusion effects
There is a possibility of a quick short-term price rebound, but for it to evolve into a sustainable bullish market, the above conditions must be confirmed one by one. Relying solely on a single emotional pulse makes it difficult to sustain a coherent main rise. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's October rate hike expectations, US crypto taxation and BTC reserve legislation, and SEC and CFTC on-chain compliance frameworks will continue to influence market risk appetite. #美联储10月再加息概率破55% Many people treat the “moving average golden cross” as a universal buy signal, rushing in when MA5 crosses above MA20, only to end up buying near the upper boundary of a consolidation range and getting repeatedly proven wrong. The problem is not with the moving averages themselves, but with focusing only on the crossover without considering the structure.
Take $SPYB as an example: current price is 763.49, MA5=763.682 has just crossed above MA20=762.514, but the two are almost overlapping, and the amplitude of the last 30 candlesticks is only 0.87%—this is a typical low-volatility convergence structure. The information content of the moving average crossover here is very low; the real signal comes when the Bollinger Bands start to widen. The current Bollinger range is [760.537, 764.492], price is close to the upper band, RSI=59.3 is not overbought, MACD histogram +0.08692 maintains a bullish stance, indicating momentum is positive but the space has not yet opened. The Fear & Greed Index at 56 is in the greed zone, so sentiment does not impose a contrary pressure.
Reusable method: moving averages determine direction, Bollinger Bands determine position, RSI+MACD determine momentum; only act when all three align. The current direction is slightly bullish, but wait for the price to firmly hold above the upper band at 764.492 for confirmation.
Direction: bullish. The opponent pushed the pawn of the King's Bishop's Pawn to the sixth rank—seemingly an aggressive move, but actually digging their own grave.
$IMX is currently priced at $0.13, moving only 3.56% in 24 hours. The market looks like a stable Italian opening just past twenty moves—boring to outsiders, but my calculator has already reached the endgame. The real issue is never how many points the price has risen, but the **structure**.
Looking at the short-term Bollinger Bands: the price has already touched the outer side of the upper band, with a position reading of 111%, only -0.3% away from the upper band—meaning this piece is already stepping on the edge of the board; one more step forward and it will fall off the grid. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 89%, still +0.5% buffer from the upper band, indicating the midgame advance is not yet complete, but the space has been compressed to the width of a hair.
The short-term RSI has risen to 68.2, close to the overbought line; while the long-term RSI is only 52.8, near the completely neutral midline. I've seen this combination many times in chess: **short troops advancing, no support from behind**. The hourly signal has already triggered a sell mark because the short-term reading broke through the red line at 64—this is a typical "overextended offensive," seemingly fierce but actually unable to continue.
My judgment is: this is a deliberate sacrifice.
The current entry position is 2.7% above $0.13, meaning the opponent has already entered the encirclement I preset. The first target is $0.12, a 6.2% retracement from the current price, corresponding to reclaiming the material advantage that was conceded; the second target is also $0.12, a 4.2% retracement, which is the second encirclement net in the endgame. The stop loss above is set at $0.14, a 13.2% rise from the current price—remember, this is the defensive bottom line. Once broken, it means the opponent has truly found a counterattack line, and I will accept the loss and exit without lingering.
My trading plan is as follows:
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.13 (current price +2.7%)
Take Profit 1: $0.12 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: $0.12 (-4.2%)
Stop Loss: $0.14 (+13.2%)
The core of this game is not the first move, but that I know the opponent will be forced to exchange pieces at $0.12. The mismatch of short-term overbought and long-term neutral is a typical endgame of two bishops against a single rook—superficial balance, but the outcome is already decided.
On the board, the most dangerous thing is not the opponent's check, but that he thinks he is attacking.Institutions have not formed a consensus direction today; ONE is directly stripping away the news to focus on the order book. The current price is around 0.0017068. The bare candlestick has tested the 0.00168 support three times recently without effectively breaking below it. The buy orders below are quite solid, and the bears' selling pressure is weakening.
On the order book, there is support below 0.00170, and heavy sell orders are stacked between 0.00172 and 0.00174. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a volume breakout direction. I stopped halfway on my bike to make a call to push orders and glanced at the intraday chart; this position is not suitable for chasing but only for setting points.
In terms of operation, if the price pulls back to 0.00168 to 0.00169 without breaking, take a light long position with a stop loss below 0.00166. The first take profit is at 0.00174, and if it breaks through, look towards 0.00178.
If the price directly breaks above 0.00172 with volume, you can chase longs, placing a stop loss below 0.00169, targeting 0.00178 to 0.00180.
Position size must be kept low; ONE's price spikes are very fast, so do not go full position betting on direction.
$ONE
#OKX百万规划师
@OKX星球 Arc has only been online for one day, and some people are already saying it's doomed. Is it because you didn't get the 100x coin that you think this chain is no good?
I looked at the data and really don't see anything to mock about this start.
As of September 17:
Stablecoin market cap is $656 million.
DeFi locked value is $334 million.
24-hour DEX trading volume is $76.09 million.
These are the numbers from just the first day of the mainnet.
Looking at the ecosystem, Aave, Morpho, and Uniswap are all in the initial lineup. Just Morpho and Aave alone have locked over $300 million. At least on the lending side, funds have already come in; it's not just about hanging a few partnership logos.
Circle's own USDC, combined with the CCTP cross-chain channel, plus lending and trading protocols, makes this starting point quite solid. Many new chains are still scrambling to pull in protocols and find funds after launch, but Arc already has these from the start.
Of course, Meme hasn't yet shown the expected profit effect that everyone is waiting for, and that's a topic to discuss. But dismissing the entire ecosystem just because a few coins you invested in haven't risen is a bit ridiculous.
Whether it can sustain going forward remains to be seen. But to have this data on the very first day and still be told "no one is playing, no funds"—you really should open the data and take a look first.
As for me, I remain optimistic. When the screen is full of Arc 100x screenshots, then saying the ecosystem is awesome will be too easy.🎯 FOUR TICKERS. ONE MARKET BET?
$BTC .
$ETH .
$DOGE .
$ZEC.
Four different assets can still carry the same risk when liquidity dries up and market sentiment shifts.
A longer watchlist doesn’t always mean better diversification.
The real edge is understanding your exposure:
➤ Are these assets adding different risks?
➤ Or just increasing the size of the same position?
Diversification is about owning different drivers, not just more tickers.
NFA. DYOR.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% The probability of an interest rate hike in October is over 55%, and the biggest problem now isn't BTC falling.
It's that you simply don't know which type of coin will break first.
With expectations of rate hikes continuing to heat up, I will first look at:
Whether BTC has large sell orders appearing;
Whether ETH will follow with a catch-up drop;
Whether high Beta coins like SOL and XRP will suddenly see volume spikes;
Whether the coins that rose the most earlier will start to crash first.
Because the real market movement often isn't a simultaneous drop.
Instead:
BTC stabilizes first, ETH starts to weaken, and altcoins suddenly lose liquidity collectively.
Many people only realize the risk when BTC falls 5%.
But by that time, altcoins may have already dropped 15%-30%.
So if you have a large position now, don't just watch BTC.
What you really need to guard against in rate hike trading is volatility suddenly rising all at once.The foundation concrete hasn't even been poured yet, and people are already arguing about what color the rooftop curtain wall should be — this is my first judgment of the $ID market at this moment.
A slight 1.83% drop in 24H terms, in structural engineering language, this is not a collapse but just a normal reading at the settlement observation point. What really deserves attention is not this single number, but the stress distribution of the load-bearing system: RSI short-term reading is 34.8, long-term 40.8, both profiles fall entirely in the neutral-to-lower compression zone, with no oversold tear nor bottom anchoring completed. In other words, this is a beam still in its curing period, not a beam ready for formwork removal.
The Bollinger Bands provide a clearer structural diagram: the short-term price is at 13% of the channel, only 0.6% from the lower band — almost touching the baseboard; the mid-term is also at 13%, 0.9% from the lower band and 6.1% from the upper band. The lower edges of both channels almost coincide, indicating this is not a coincidence but that a horizontal support beam is holding it up. But note: the support beam can hold the load, but that doesn't mean it can hold the sentiment.
My approach is very architectural: no chasing highs, leaving construction joints downward. The entry point is set 3.2% below the current price, proactively waiting for the structure to pull back, rather than hastily pouring concrete at the channel's lower edge. A 1-hour RSI below 38 gives a buy signal, which I accept, but I only build according to the blueprint, not the noise.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.03 (current price -3.2%)
Take Profit 1: 0.03 (+6.4%)
Take Profit 2: 0.03 (+6.1%)
Stop Loss: 0.03 (-13.9%)
The take profit target is only set just above +6% because the mid-term upper band is at 6.1% above — that's the roof layer, not the rooftop platform; breaking through requires new load-bearing evidence. The 13.9% stop loss depth means I have left a full underground redundancy layer for this structure: better to dig deeper than to collapse shallow.
The white paper can be redrawn as an elevation plan, but the development progress is the reinforcement ratio. The reinforcement ratio of this beam is currently insufficient to support secondary construction.A 2796% unrealized profit is very tempting, but let's be clear: this is the amplified result of 10x leverage, the price only increased 2.8 times. Leverage is not the source of excess returns; it is a risk amplifier.
My position: $USELESS, long, 10x, entry at 0.06779, mark price 0.25734. The entry logic is based on sector resonance in early September—USELESS rose from 0.04 on August 17 to 0.316 on September 5, with market cap increasing from $33 million to $300 million in one month, accompanied by Bonk Guy's calls, multiple platforms launching perpetual contracts, and Bithumb listing KRW trading pairs.
Choosing 0.06779 to go long was because it was both the breakout confirmation level at the end of August and the upper edge of a previous dense trading zone, allowing for a tight stop loss. This is the only professional part of this trade.
The previous high at 0.316 and support at 0.20 are two key levels. A reminder: a 50% or more pullback is normal for meme coins; with 10x leverage, this means the principal is wiped out, and no matter how impressive the unrealized profit looks, it is just a paper number.#摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金
JPMorgan says BTC may outperform gold, key depends on whether the shorts retreat
JPMorgan's recent view is not simply bullish on BTC, but points out a signal worth noting: if the downward hedging demand for Bitcoin ETFs decreases, BTC may receive stronger support than gold going forward.
Currently, gold ETFs have basically recovered the funds outflowed earlier this year, while Bitcoin ETFs have only recovered about half. Meanwhile, BlackRock IBIT's short positions remain near this year's highs, indicating institutions still have a defensive stance on BTC.
In other words, there may not only be selling pressure above BTC now, but potentially a group of "latent buyers" hidden. If market sentiment improves, shorts start covering and hedge positions retreat, it could trigger a reverse push.
Combined with BTC recently reclaiming $77,000, this logic is worth continued observation.
Of course, gold funds are still performing stronger at the moment, so it cannot be directly interpreted as "BTC will definitely surpass gold."
What is truly worth watching is whether BTC ETF funds can continue to flow back, and whether IBIT shorts begin to decline significantly.
If both signals appear simultaneously, BTC's rebound may be more sustainable than it currently seems.