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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on 9/16, the first time since July 2023. The US Dollar Index closed at 100.31 that day, breaking above the MA120. Looking at data from 2010 to now, the US Dollar Index has officially crossed above the MA120 a total of 23 times. In the following 30 days, Bitcoin dropped 14 times and rose 9 times. MA120 is originally my stop-loss line, so I took a closer look: after these 23 times, in the next 30 days, the proportion of Bitcoin declines was $BTC中际旭创的名字出现在随行名单里，这事比比亚迪和小米更让我在意。它做的是AI数据中心光模块，而近期报道说它可能面临美国出口限制。 一边是出口管制的阴影，一边是可能随行访美。这两个信号同时出现，说明谈判桌上光模块是有分量的筹码。 做市商看的是价差和流动性，不是新闻标题。名单本身不产生交易，落地才是。企业代表团规模可观，对照的是今年5月特朗普访华时的CEO阵容，暗示有投资交易空间。 但知情人士说的，终究只是可能。 消息没落地之前，波动都是情绪给的。我会等名单确认，再决定要不要动。 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 #海力士回应美国扩产传闻 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% $HYPE $UNI UNI dropped to 5.9 but I didn't panic; instead, I waited for this rebound, currently with a floating profit of 2400U Last night, I positioned long near 6.21, originally targeting just around 6.5. Unexpectedly, after entering, the price once dipped to about 5.9. At that time, the market indeed showed pressure, but I didn't rush to cut losses due to the short-term pullback. Why? Because from the market perspective, there was clear support near 5.9; after the price dropped, it didn't continue to weaken. Since the key support wasn't effectively broken, it means that although bears were selling off, there were still buyers below. So I chose to hold on to this position, betting on this rebound. As a result, the market indeed gave an opportunity. UNI rebounded all the way from around 5.9 and has now reached near 6.7, not only recovering the entry price but also breaking through the original target of 6.5. Currently, this position shows a floating profit of 2400U. But at this point in the trade, I won't be greedy for the last leg; the profits to take have already been secured, and the exit point has been planned in advance. This time, I won't guess the highest point; I'll take profits when it's good enough. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $BTC Wash this time the dot plot shows 16/18 people support another rate hike within the year, with a high probability of one more in December. But the key is—— Middle East war → oil price capped at $100 → inflation won't come down → rate hikes continue → strong dollar Strong dollar → gold under pressure (down 1.5% today) → but war safe haven provides support Tariffs + inflation → US stock valuations under pressure → Dow down 3 consecutive days hitting a new stage low However, crypto assets have shown independence in this "hawkish + war + tariffs" conflicting environment, indicating funds are looking for things the Fed can't control BTC is the digital gold narrative, $ZEC is privacy + scarcity narrative, $ETH is stuck in the middle waiting for October catalysts. The three directions have different logics, but today all proved: rate hikes landing = bad news fully priced in, short-term bottom confirmed.Rate pressure just hit the market, crypto legislation remains stuck in uncertainty, and yet Bitcoin’s weekly move is only around -1.5%. That reaction is what catches my attention. 👀 If the headlines keep getting worse but BTC keeps absorbing the selling, the downside pressure may be losing some force. $BTC holding the $75K–$76K area is becoming increasingly important. The longer Bitcoin refuses to collapse despite negative catalysts, the more interesting the next liquidity move becomes. 🎯🔥 #B#海力士回应美国扩产传闻 SK Hynix says there is no conclusion yet; it already said this once in July. ▪️ Intel's first Ohio factory will be completed in 2030 and start production in 2031, originally planned for 2025 ▪️ Indiana packaging plant about $4 billion, mass production only in the second half of 2029 ▪️ Lutenik: For products not made in the US, tariffs can be as high as 100% The disagreement is not about whether to go to the US, but that the delivery schedule and the schedule when it is needed differ by five years. The factory will be ready in 2030, but the shortage is now—Apple has already downgraded its 2026 hardware shipment plan, and the top Mac Studio model has to wait 16 to 18 weeks. The market only gave one day: on that day, Korean stocks rose 4.08%, ADRs rose 3% pre-market but closed flat at 174.87, and turned negative the next morning. Choi Tae-won said in July, "We need to build a factory in the US"—two months later, the company only denied "acquisition." Seoul is also demanding something—urging it to build four new factories in the southwest, and using this US investment to negotiate the undistributed 200 billion won out of the 350 billion won Korea-US commitment. The same capital expenditure, two governments competing. In July, the rumor was acquisition; in September, it was lease or joint venture, talking about the same factory site. This trip to the US, are you betting it’s for capacity or for tariff exemption?Looks like I’m about to become the last one standing in the short camp. $ZEC and $ETH really decided to teach me a lesson today. 💀 I honestly shouldn’t have opened that short. I focused too much on the negative headlines and forgot one important thing: Sometimes the market sells the rumor, then buys the news. 📈 The bad news was already expected, cautious money waited on the sidelines, and once the event actually happened, buyers finally stepped in. $BTC, $ETH, $ZEC — you three really chose vio$PONS lands on OKX Spot, how much longer can the token factory on Robinhood Chain run wild? Today $PONS (Pons Family) officially launched on OKX Spot, currently fluctuating around $0.58 - $0.64. As a pure money-making project, no hype or bashing, let's talk about the underlying logic: A terrifying money-sucking printing machine: Pons, as a third-party permissionless Launchpad on Robinhood Chain, once set a single-day fee record exceeding $11 million, issuing nearly 25,000 tokens in one day. This "continuous commission from subsequent token trading" profit model is the core supporting its fundamentals. Chips and capital: Previously, Uniswap Labs reportedly made strategic positions, and with today's liquidity injection on OKX Spot, if after a short-term shakeout it can break through the strong resistance at $0.64 with volume, it is likely to start a new major upward wave. Risks to watch: Retail investors on Robinhood Chain are highly speculative, most tokens issued there have very short lifespans, heavily relying on the continued hype of the parent chain. #Will long-term US Treasury yields at 5% become the new normal? My view: 5% will gradually shift from an "abnormally high level" to a new important interest rate center, but it doesn't necessarily mean that 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries will permanently stabilize above 5%. As of September 16, the 30-year Treasury yield is about 5.35%, and the 10-year is about 5.00%; the 30-year has been above 5% for a continuous period.  More importantly, the driving force behind this is no longer simply "Fed rate hikes." Currently, three forces are simultaneously pushing up the long end: 1. Fiscal deficit and debt supply The US government needs to continuously issue a large amount of long-term government bonds, and the market demands a higher term premium to absorb this supply. The recent long-end sell-off in the global bond market is itself related to fiscal and inflation concerns.  2. Inflation center may be higher than before Oil prices, tariffs, and energy supply risks may make it harder for inflation to quickly return to 2%. The Fed has just raised rates by 25bp again and signaled the possibility of another hike within the year.  3. The market is starting to demand higher real yields The 10-year yield returning to 5% is not entirely a bet on runaway inflation; it also includes a repricing of future policy paths, fiscal supply, and long-term risks.  So I tend to interpret it as: The era of "ultra-low interest rates" over the past decade or so has ended. In the coming years, the reasonable operating range for the US 10-year Treasury yield may be overall much higher than the low-rate era before and after the pandemic. But to say "5% is the permanent new normal" is a conclusion we cannot draw yet. The three variables that truly determine whether 5% can hold long-term are: Whether inflation can return to around 2% • Whether the US fiscal deficit can converge • Whether the Fed can eventually re-enter a rate-cutting cycle. If inflation falls, oil prices retreat, and fiscal pressure eases, the 10-year yield returning to 4% or even lower is entirely possible. But if: Fiscal deficit continues to expand + debt supply keeps increasing + inflation remains around 3% long-term, then 10-year yields at 5% may really shift from a "pressure level" to a new normal interest rate center. This is especially important for BTC This is why I am now paying special attention to US Treasuries, not just whether the Fed hikes rates. 10-year at 5% → global risk-free rate repricing → stock valuations under pressure → rising capital costs for crypto assets. Especially with the BTC spot ETF seeing continuous outflows as you mentioned earlier, if combined with long-term US Treasury yields staying above 5%, then BTC will need to bear higher capital costs to sustain a prolonged bull market. Conversely, if in the future we see: 10-year yield moving from 5% → 4.7% → 4.5% and ETFs see sustained net inflows again, this could become a very important macro signal for BTC's next rally. In short: the real danger is not a temporary break above 5% in Treasury yields, but the market starting to accept "that for many years to come, the US long-term cost of capital will remain around 5%." $BTC Sharing with everyone the $UNI short stop-loss order I placed last night. The first chart is a 4-hour chart. We can simply see that if shorting, there is a lot of room below, so I am biased short on $UNI. The 15-minute chart, as shown in the second chart, shows the price consolidating near the trendline, which caught my attention. Around 10 PM last night, the price broke below the lower boundary of the range, and I immediately took a position. Then the price continued to fall, so I added to my position, keeping the overall position around 6.18 with a stop loss near 6.4. Let me explain my trading logic: 1) This trade is a trend reversal trade breaking the major cycle trendline; entering after breaking the consolidation range is to confirm the downward direction; 2) Since this is a trend reversal trade, I set the stop loss at 6.4, where the price would retake the trendline and break the first high. These two logics are correct, and the stop loss is appropriate. However, there are several obvious shortcomings: 1) I pointed out yesterday that $BTC might still continue to rise, so shorting altcoins was risky, but I shorted anyway; 2) I added to my position three times in total, but the stop loss was always set at 6.4, which exposed me to too much risk without resetting the stop loss for each addition; 3) The time between each add-on was very short, which is a frequent mistake of mine. Each add-on should be after confirming the price has strengthened the trend direction, but I simply added on the momentum. Reflection leads to progress, and I have already noted these key points.Ethereum’s value story comes from a different mix: network activity, fees, staking demand, and capital/product flows. If those catalysts remain weak while $BTC continues holding its structure, ETH can remain under pressure and trail Bitcoin for an extended period. That relative weakness is worth watching. 👀 Don’t buy ETH simply because the price looks lower than before. Track the fundamentals. Watch ETH/BTC. Wait for demand to actually return. A lower price alone isn’t a catalyst. 📊 #ETH #Ethe$ROBO SNAPS BACK OFF SUPPORT Watched $ROBO dip to 0.00779 then reclaim 0.00827, up 1.10% today despite a 66% drop over 180 days. Sharp bounces after deep pullbacks test discipline more than luck. Do you trust a reversal this fast, or wait for confirmation before reacting? #CLARITYActPathForward The new public chain's meme coins look lively, each with a stronger background than the last, but their actual performance is mediocre. Especially those where the official team personally launches the tokens, controlling the supply and information themselves—retail investors basically end up footing the bill. If you haven't earned alpha from the old chains, don't rush to give it away on the new ones. 🤔BTC's strategy is clear: ride the waves, hold the base position, profits and losses are naturally a tug of war Looking at the two positions together, you can immediately understand this trading logic. Current position: BTC 4.5x full long, opened at 76280, current price 76442, slight floating profit of 0.95%, maintaining a very high margin ratio, with a thick safety buffer. Historical records are even more interesting: A large previous long position was opened at a high of 79673, eventually closed with a loss of 10.85 BTC; a small short position in the middle was stopped out; but at the same time, a long position was caught, gaining +24.09 BTC, a return of 74.84%. This strategy is straightforward: hold a long base position for the long term, and intersperse wave trading in between. Knowing the big picture is bullish, but the market won't rise in a straight line. Take advantage of opportunities to capture big profits from rallies, and accept losses when reversals occur at highs. Not every trade wins, but rely on high-win-rate big waves to cover the drawdowns caused by losing trades. Currently, 4.5x leverage is not extremely high, margin ratio is sufficient, and there is no urgent risk of liquidation. The current phase is a consolidation and recovery stage after the interest rate hike. Core idea remains: ✅ Base long position, betting on a rebound and recovery after macro bearish news is priced in. Many only focus on floating profits and losses, envy the big 74.84% win, but overlook the loss from being trapped and forced to cut at a high. Those who can hold onto big profits must also bear the stop-loss cost of misreading the market. Trading is not about winning every trade, but that the profits from winning trades exceed the losses from losing trades.$ZEC The Fed's rate hike has landed, yet ZEC keeps rising fiercely, what's going on? Brothers, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at midnight, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but the market did not experience the expected big plunge. The reason is simple: this rate hike was basically anticipated, and after the news landed, the negative sentiment turned into a relief. Looking at ZEC, after lingering at a low level for so long, it clearly started to gain momentum at midnight, surging up to around 1396, then it didn't crash back immediately but digested the gains sideways at a high level. This is something I pay close attention to. The short-term moving averages still point upward, and the price hasn't fallen back to key levels, so the bulls haven't shown obvious signs of retreat yet. Simply put: the news is bearish, but ZEC doesn't fall; instead, it rises. This reflects the market's attitude. However, the resistance at the previous high of 1396 is right there, chasing directly could easily fuel the market makers. My approach is still to wait for a pullback, consider going long after the price stabilizes at the 1368 support. Target the previous high at 1396, stop loss near 1340. Don't fear the rise; fear chasing at the peak in excitement. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 CORE large-scale release has not triggered panic selling for a long time—is it market support or another scheme? Many KOLs on foreign platforms have been closely watching CORE's large unlocks. Logically, with such a huge release volume, the price should have smashed through all psychological levels by now, but the market keeps grinding at the bottom without any destructive selling pressure. The US stock market crashed down 631 points, yet Bitcoin stubbornly holds at 76,000! What's going on with this unusual scene? Just saw the US stock market closing data: the Dow plunged 631 points, the S&P dropped 0.45%, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5%, and the dollar strengthened. Normally, such a massive pullback would drag all risk assets down. But a quick glance at Bitcoin shows it’s still stubbornly holding near 76,000. This time the Federal Reserve not only raised rates by 25 basis points, but the dot plot is extremely hawkish. Out of 18 officials, 16 are calling for more hikes within the year. This is not just a "correction"; it’s clearly telling everyone: as long as inflation isn’t under control, high interest rates will remain looming. Many are still fantasizing that "once rate hikes end, the bad news is over." Wake up. What’s really suppressing the market now is no longer the policy rate, but the risk-free yield. Folks, you can get nearly 5% just by holding US Treasuries risk-free—who would want to play high-risk altcoins in crypto? Capital has eyes. So why didn’t Bitcoin dive with the US stocks? My understanding is that this 25 basis point hike has long been priced in; what capital is really waiting for is when the next hike will land. The current resilience doesn’t mean strength—it’s likely just that the pressure hasn’t fully transmitted yet. Don’t blindly bet on "the bad news being fully priced in." If US Treasury yields keep rising and the dollar keeps strengthening, Bitcoin’s current resilience can be broken by a catch-down drop at any time. $BTC $ETH When everyone cheers at that 5.92% bullish candle, the grandmaster is watching the pawn formation—$ETC's pawn formation is already locked, and locked in a grid extremely unfavorable to the bulls. A 5.92% rise in 24 hours, short-term RSI hitting 65.6, crossing the critical line of 64; but the long-term RSI only stops at 51.1, without a clear advantage even over市场最怕的不是利空，是没落地的利空。这周刚好相反，两个悬着的利空都落地了，价格却没崩，这本身就是一条信息。 法案这条先说，它没通过，对币圈当然是利空。但落地之后行情没走出大幅下跌，而且它后续还能再提交，这次不通过不是终局，我判断影响有限。 加息这条也一样。美联储时隔三年加息25个基点，符合预期。符合预期意味着什么？没加息才会直接涨，加超预期才会直接跌，刚好符合预期，通常就是没什么大动静，之后反而容易走一段修复。过往一整轮加息周期都是这个规律：决议出来当时没波动，方向都是之后才走出来的，因为预期早就被消化了。 两个利空都砸不动，能说明两件事。一是消息面上的空头能量释放得差不多了；二是下方的承接比想象中厚。 再看幅度。从高点下来整体8%到9%，不到一成，这个空间我按良性结构调整看，不构成趋势转向。 结构上要盯的是7万6。前低一度跌破又收了回来，收回来了我就按假突破处理。这类走法在调整段里很常见，破一下、收回，把不坚定的筹码洗掉，然后才真正选方向。上方短期压力79500到8万，过去反弹在这儿遇阻，下跌途中在这儿插针，这次反弹也在这儿压回来，同一道墙被验证了三次。 清算The rebound is real, but don't mistake a “dovish rate hike” for the “start of a bull market” After the Fed's rate hike, the crypto market rebounded. The core logic is “bad news fully priced in + expectations of the rate hike cycle peaking.” The dot plot shows only one rate hike left this year, and the bond market has already started pricing in future easing. However, Bitcoin's intraday gain of less than 1% suggests this rebound may be limited in strength. The surge in Zcash is an isolated event—backing from Paradigm plus a reassessment of the privacy narrative, rather than a signal of systemic strength across the entire market. For investors, the current focus should be: whether the Fed truly has “only one rate hike left”; whether the CPI data to be released in October will break the expectation of “rate hike peak”; and whether Bitcoin can hold above $76,000 instead of falling back to test support again. The rebound on the rate hike night is a celebration of “certainty” by the market—not a celebration of the rate hike itself, but a celebration that the end of rate hikes is finally in sight. Whether the path after the end is smooth or a cliff still requires more data to answer.September 17 Gold Midday Core Influencing Factors Analysis 1. Federal Reserve policy decision finalized, hawkish tone dominates the market The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp overnight, with the decision passed unanimously. The dot plot suggests the possibility of one more rate hike this year. Powell emphasized inflation resilience and rejected premature rate cuts. Following the news, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields rose, suppressing gold prices. Overnight gold experienced a significant rollercoaster, surging then quickly plunging, hitting a low near 4235. 2. Middle East geopolitical situation Shipping risks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz persist, with localized frictions ongoing. However, the current market priority is the Federal Reserve's rate expectations, limiting the strength of geopolitical safe-haven buying; only a large-scale escalation of conflict would make safe-haven demand dominate the market. Crude oil prices retreated, marginally easing inflation concerns and slightly relieving pressure on gold, but not enough to reverse the overall weak trend. Technical Analysis 4-hour chart: Bollinger Bands opening downward, overall downtrend channel intact; slight rebound at midday, bullish candle body weak, representing a weak recovery within the downtrend channel. MACD below zero line, red bars weak, rebound momentum limited; KDJ repeatedly crossing at low levels, intense bulls vs bears battle, oscillating repeatedly. Strategy: Short near 4310-4330, stop loss at 4352, target 4260-4230 Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, trade cautiously #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 $XAU Long-term US Treasury yields held at 5%, which of these three small coins is swimming naked? #WillLongTermUSTreasury5PercentBecomeTheNewNormal? At noon, with long-term US Treasury yields held at 5%, let's talk one by one about which small coins are swimming naked. $HYPE 79.66, the former star repaying debt has dropped from 89.65, 97% of income is used for buybacks but income has declined for four consecutive quarters, 77.5 is the critical point. With long-term yields at 5%, high-beta small coins like this suffer the most, but the heavy drop is supported by real income, making it more resistant than pure air coins. $ASTER 0.696, a decentralized perpetual contract DEX, market cap 1.89 billion ranked 45th, long-term 5% yields cause high volatility, retail investors panic and open contracts, it collects fees, the more chaos the more it earns. $BICO 2 cents, focused on account abstraction, the sector is not bad but lacks funding support, it falls more with long-term 5% yields, the narrative hasn't arrived yet, need to wait for spillover from the leader, don't force it. With long-term yields at 5%, HYPE has a bottom, ASTER benefits from volatility, avoid BICO, watch small positions at noon.With $ETH trading around $2,550, I’m watching the $2,450–$2,500 area closely as a potential accumulation zone. Ethereum has faced plenty of selling pressure recently, but the bigger picture still has several factors worth monitoring — ETF flows, network activity, Bitcoin’s direction, and overall market liquidity. I’m continuing to build my spot $ETH position gradually rather than trying to predict the exact bottom. Key levels on my radar: 📍 $2,450–$2,500: support/accumulation zone 📍 $2,650: fiWhen a coin doubles in price, my first reaction isn’t envy, it’s that someone else is going to lose sleep again. Lookonchain just uncovered that an address took a 4x leveraged long position on 3.25 million SYN, with a principal of 588,000, currently floating a profit of 304,000, a return rate of 207%. SYN rose just over 100% today. Simply put, someone positioned their chips early, and when the market moves, the numbers speak for themselves. Outsiders see it as "Wow, made a killing." Insiders see: 4x leverage, if the direction reverses, that 300,000 instantly turns negative. I’m not jealous of the money, I’m jealous of the courage to make a move at this position. Now the question is, who is this kind of return screenshot meant for? Definitely not for someone like me who realizes it too late. #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $BTC ⚠️ BTC stands at 76,378! How much higher can it surge after confirming the double bottom at 75,064? 📊 Market Snapshot BTC current price 76,378｜4H range 75,064–76,560｜volatility 1.99% ETH current price 2,421｜4H range 2,369–2,430｜volatility 2.58% 1️⃣ Wyckoff Perspective BTC completed a Spring action at 75,064, with a high-volume long lower shadow clearing floating positions, followed by continuous rebound, currently in the early Mark-up phase. If it breaks above the previous high of 76,560, it will confirm entry into an accelerated uptrend. ETH also completed a Spring at 2,369, but the rebound strength is weaker than BTC, with funds clearly favoring BTC. 2️⃣ 2B Rule Judgment BTC 4H level: after breaking below the previous low of 75,350 at 75,064, it quickly recovered, forming a classic 2B bottom structure, currently standing above 75,788 with a retest confirmation. ETH similarly broke below 2,378 at 2,369 and recovered, establishing a 2B bottom, but there is resistance around 2,422 that requires a volume breakout to open up space.#CLARITY法案下一步怎么走？ The procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed to pass, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. The bill cannot proceed to formal debate and review for now, but this does not mean the bill is completely dead; it just significantly reduces the probability of it being enacted by 2026. Three potential paths forward: 1. Short-term restart and reconsideration (very low probability) Technically, a motion to reconsider can still be submitted, but with Congress recessing in early October, there is very little time left and a large number of bipartisan votes must be secured. The partisan divide remains huge, with almost zero support from Democrats, making it very difficult to reach 60 votes in a short time. The practical obstacles are enormous. 2. Lame-duck session after the midterm elections (small probability) After the midterm elections in November, there will be a brief lame-duck session. If the election results ease tensions and both parties are willing to renegotiate and amend the text, there is a last-minute chance to pass it. However, Congress will prioritize handling fiscal appropriations and other urgent matters, leaving very limited time for crypto legislation. 3. Starting over with the new Congress in 2027 (highest probability) If all the above windows are missed, the new Congress will convene next year, and the bill will need to be resubmitted and go through committees again, essentially restarting the entire process. At that time, changes in congressional seats could completely rewrite the bill’s fate. The bill’s setback means that unified federal crypto regulation in the U.S. will continue to be delayed, and the market will return to a regulatory vacuum. This will suppress risk appetite in the short term, but it should not be seen as a trigger for a one-sided major decline. The "Achilles' heel" of the rebound: Bitcoin's gains are unconvincing Although market sentiment has clearly warmed, there are also warning signals hidden in the data. Bitcoin has risen above $76,000, but the intraday gain is less than 1%. Against the backdrop of "interest rate hikes landing + risk appetite recovery," this gain appears weak. In contrast, Solana rose nearly 3%, BNB and HYPE rose over 2%, and ZEC surged 23%—Bitcoin's rebound strength is clearly lagging behind altcoins. This divergence indicates that funds are seeking "higher elasticity" outlets. As the largest asset by market cap, Bitcoin's rise requires stronger incremental capital; assets like Zcash and Solana, driven by localized catalysts, are more prone to pulse-like rallies. Another detail worth noting: this rate hike is the first since 2023, rather than the rate cut previously expected by the market. This means the macro environment facing the crypto market has shifted from "rate cut expectations" to "end of the rate hike cycle." Whether this shift has been fully priced in remains uncertain. Jeff Ko's judgment that it has been "digested" needs to be verified by data in the coming weeks.🔥Dividends are here, but short sellers actually have to pay? MEXC KO and other stock futures dividend settlement rules: Long positions receive adjustment payments, short positions need to pay, recorded as special funding fees. Principle: Stock price drops due to ex-dividend, shorts show unrealized gains on paper, but this part comes from dividends, not short selling profits, requiring a funding adjustment hedge. Many blindly open long/short positions when seeing dividends, overlooking this cost, which can easily cause pitfalls. ⚠️No trading fee ≠ no dividend adjustment fee; leverage will directly affect margin. This implicit rule in derivatives is the easiest way for people to lose money unknowingly. Have you previously overlooked contract ex-dividend related rules? Market observation, not investment advice.🚨 $TRUMP 现在最危险的，不是跌了，而是没人接了。 24小时清算才约48万美元，其中多单42万、空单6.3万，最大单笔也只有2.4万，全球仅283人被清算。 这说明什么？ 不是市场在疯狂踩踏，而是杠杆资金正在慢慢撤。 TRUMP 已经从3.68美元回落到1.97美元，之前夸张的7000%涨幅也收敛到2000%左右。24小时波动还有5.66%，但成交额已经不到1亿美元。 叙事还在，资金却没以前那么热了。 现在市场真正等的，其实是 CLARITY 法案。 如果后续通过，情绪可能重新被点燃；如果没有新的催化，TRUMP更容易继续陷入存量资金博弈。 而且成交变薄之后，盘面会变得很“脆”： 一笔大单就可能把价格推上去，也可能突然砸下来。 所以现在这种低成交下的反弹，我不会轻易当成趋势反转。 📌 我会重点观察两个信号： 成交额重新回到1亿美元上方； 多空清算重新趋于均衡。 在这两个信号出现之前，控制仓位，比追涨杀跌更重要。 #DailyOrbit Saudi Arabia's "capacity to resume production in a few days" triggered a 4% plunge in oil prices, but the full repair of the 1,200-kilometer pipeline will take six weeks, indicating the market reaction was overblown. Meanwhile, a secret meeting between the US and Oman reached an understanding, with the Houthis exempting US vessels but specifically targeting Saudi ships, aiming to drive a wedge between the US-Saudi alliance. Analysis suggests that the above news is all smoke and mirrors. The oil price drop is intended to intimidate retail investors; if inflation expectations ease in the short term, it will benefit risk assets (Bitcoin fluctuating around 75,000). There is a need to be highly vigilant about a potential V-shaped reversal in oil prices caused by either slower-than-expected Saudi pipeline repairs or Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels.HIDDEN BTC — SEP 17 ₿THE $72K–$85K BTC RANGE MATTERS One of the less-discussed signals right now is Bitcoin’s options positioning. 📉Max pain:~$72K 📈Call concentration:~$85K 💰Sept. 25 expiry:~$14.2B OI Glassnode says options shifted toward downside protection after the recent market shock. This doesn’tLast night, the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp as expected, but the real negative factor is not this 25bp hike, rather the dot plot: 16 out of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year. BTC is currently holding around $75.8K, not continuing to collapse after the hawkish Fed; meanwhile, Brent has fallen back from over $108 to $105.83. My judgment is: BTC has entered a phase where "regulatory negatives have basicallySei Ecosystem Overview (2026-09) Sei is positioned as a trading-dedicated L1, having shifted to EVM-first. The Giga major upgrade is underway, with the ecosystem mainly focused on DeFi/derivatives, RWA, NFT, and gaming; a large number of projects come from Cosmos migration + EVM project porting. Note: Sei is undergoing the Giga transformation, gradually phasing out native Cosmos/CosmWasm, retaining only the EVM environment in the future, with old Cosmos contracts being gradually deprecated. 1. DeFi (Core sector: DEX, lending, liquid staking, derivatives) DEX (Decentralized Exchanges) 1. Astroport: Sei's largest DEX, a veteran Cosmos AMM, deployed multi-chain, the liquidity cornerstone of the Sei ecosystem, providing spot trading and LP mining. 2. SushiSwap: Well-known multi-chain DEX, launched spot + perpetual contracts on Sei, one of the main derivatives players. 3. Vortex: Derivatives DEX, focusing on leverage and cross margin, later acquired by Sushi, specializing in the trading track. 4. Oxium: Sei native order book DEX, once a leader, experienced a major incident, currently with declining activity. Liquid Staking (LST) 1. SiloStake: Sei's leading SEI liquid staking protocol, stake SEI to get sSEI, can participate in DeFi, highest TVL LST. 2. Kryptonite:The Fed's 25BP rate hike has already been implemented, and the market had long anticipated it. What actually pushed BTC down to around 76,000 was the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance in the Senate. This affects another logic: Rising regulatory uncertainty → Decline in institutional allocation willingness → Crypto stocks fall first → BTC gets repriced accordingly. Coinbase and Circle both saw significant drops that day, and BTC returned to near a four-week low. So if BTC continues to weaken I didn't feel any sense of achievement from making this money; it was pure luck. Just after finishing lunch and checking the market, $NES was still consolidating at the bottom but never broke down, with funds quietly entering. I casually placed a long order around 0.1345. At that time, I really didn't expect it to rally so fast; I just felt the position was comfortable and the risk-reward ratio was appropriate. As a result, it took off directly in the afternoon, with the price climbing all the way to 0.1625, a floating profit of +414.86%. This gain feels very satisfying. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet. I took profit on 70%, securing the bulk first; for the remaining 30%, I moved the stop loss to the cost price and let the profits run if it continued to rise. Take profits when you should, don't fight the market. The money you make is the realization of your understanding; the money you lose is the flaw in your understanding. For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round and act when the next signal appears. The market is not short of opportunities; what it lacks is patience. $ETH $BNB #Will Long-Term US Treasury Yields at 5% Become the New Normal? Is the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5% becoming the new normal? The real trouble is that it’s starting to ignore the Federal Reserve. The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points, yet long-term bond yields barely budged. The 10-year yield briefly dropped to 4.95%, then hovered near 5%, while the 30-year yield stayed above 5%. Meanwhile, the short-term 2-year yield has risen to about 4.7%. The market is starting to calculate a different equation: the short end watches the Fed, but the long end reflects how much the US will need to borrow in the future, whether inflation will remain sticky, and how much term premium is required. The US fiscal deficit, massive bond issuance, and corporate financing demands are all competing for funds. By the end of August, the cumulative US fiscal year deficit had reached $1.97 trillion, surpassing the entire previous fiscal year. This is uncomfortable for both $BTC and US stocks. Because a 10-year yield at 5% means risk-free assets themselves offer quite high returns, high-valuation assets must present stronger growth stories to compete for capital. BTC is currently around $76,000, having clearly pulled back from this month’s high above $82,000, coinciding with weakening ETF inflows and obstacles to CLARITY, making the liquidity environment unfriendly. I’m not ready to define “5%” as the new normal yet, but 5% is shifting from a psychological barrier to a valuation barrier. If the 2-year yield stabilizes with rate hike expectations but the 10- and 30-year yields remain near 5%, then trouble lies ahead—the market is truly pricing in a permanently higher long-term US funding cost.When BTC rises, they shout bubble; then they turn around and take out 30-year mortgages with money that depreciates every year, still claiming debt is safer than scarcity. Who sells? The bankers in the skyscrapers. Fiat can repay debts and taxes but doesn't preserve value. BTC scarcity ≠ your purchase is safe. Hodl your coins, don't leverage or gamble your life, holding steady is true hodling, don't measure your money with their ruler. $BTC Two US crypto bills have moved forward. Bitcoin Reserve Bill: Treats government-confiscated Bitcoin as reserves, to be held for at least 20 years without being casually sold. The government will not use funds to buy coins on the secondary market. This is beneficial for BTC in the long term, with a likely 2-4% short-term price increase that may retreat after the positive effect is realized. New tax regulations close loopholes on transaction tax evasion; frequent short-term trading costs will incrHIDDEN BTC — SEP 17 ₿THE $72K–$85K BTC RANGE MATTERS One of the less-discussed signals right now is Bitcoin’s options positioning. 📉Max pain:~$72K 📈Call concentration:~$85K 💰Sept. 25 expiry:~$14.2B OI Glassnode says options shifted toward downside protection after the recent market shock. This doesn’t predict BTC’s next move — but it showsWhenever interest rate news is released, there are always people shouting $BTC targets at forty thousand, then revising down to thirty thousand after a bullish candle, and pulling back to thirty thousand again after a bearish candle, changing their stance with the shifting winds. The truly noteworthy signals are the misalignment between positions and sentiment: BTC has not yet reached eighty thousand, $ETH shows significantly greater volatility, and $OKB is following its own rhythm. This dBTC remains the market’s main liquidity anchor, while ETH is the key signal for whether momentum is broadening. Watch how both assets respond to fresh market catalysts. BTC holding firm while ETH gains relative strength can support wider participation. If ETH fails to follow, the move may remain concentrated around Bitcoin. BTC holds + ETHThe market is no longer satisfied with just predicting outcomes. It has begun to realize its predictions of the outcomes. After the resolution was announced, the US dollar index returned to the 100 mark, US stocks plunged, the Dow Jones closed down 1.21%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed back above 5%. These assets reacted normally to the interest rate hike. Only BTC remained completely still. It's not because it is resistant to decline, but because it has already priced in the interest rate hike in advance. When all participants are predicting, the market turns the prediction into an established fact. Wall Street bets based on predictions, and the Federal Reserve dares not let the market, which has already bet, experience a big surprise. The interest rate hike is implemented, the negative news is fully out, and prices instead stabilize. Waller hopes to break this dependence by weakening forward guidance. But he faces a deeper dilemma: as long as the market continues to anticipate the Fed's next moves with sufficient accuracy, every policy action by the Fed will be priced in advance. At that point, it is not the Fed guiding the market, but the market guiding the Fed. Satoshi Nakamoto said as early as in an email on January 16, 2009: "If enough people think this way, then it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy." Whenever interest rate news is released, there are always people shouting $BTC targets at forty thousand, then revising down to thirty thousand after a bullish candle, and pulling back to thirty thousand again after a bearish candle, changing their stance with the shifting winds. The truly noteworthy signals are the misalignment between positions and sentiment: BTC has not yet reached eighty thousand, $ETH shows significantly greater volatility, and $OKB is following its own rhythm. ThAt 2:30 PM, just back from lunch break, I took a glance at the market. BTC is now at 76,552, up about 1% in 24 hours, with the trend slightly more stable than the past two days. Switching to the 1-hour chart, the structure is slowly repairing. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages have all turned upward, and the price is firmly above the Bollinger Band middle line (76,080), testing the upper band (76,696). It has climbed steadily from the low of 74,955, with higher lows forming, indicating bulls are gradually regaining control. This suggests that after the Federal Reserve's rate hike was implemented, the short-term negative impact has been fully absorbed. Coupled with the previous deep drop, the market has entered a phase of "negative news desensitization." The buying pressure below is stronger than expected. Of course, a single day's rebound doesn't change much. The area from 76,800 to 77,200 remains a previous drop's trapped zone, and without significant volume, it's hard to break through in one go. The current market is a typical "oversold recovery + range oscillation," so don't try to guess the direction, and definitely don't gamble. The strategy remains the same: hold spot positions firmly, and absolutely avoid leverage. The darkest phase of the slow decline is over; now it's about patiently waiting for real volume to come in. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #长端美债5%会成新常态吗？ Those who watched the market this morning should remember the 142.51 level. On September 16, I tested the bottom for the second time, but didn't break the previous low of 138.38, then a big bullish candlestick immediately recovered all the losses. This kind of movement is called a double bottom on the chart, which basically means the bears can't break through. Now there's only one problem left: 152.29, stuck all day. In 15 minutes, the Bollinger Bands have already formed a gap, with less than 0.3% difference between the upper and lower bands. This kind of closing usually ends with increased volume and directional selection. Guessing is pointless, draw the map well: three barriers above 152.99 → yesterday's rebound high 154.11 → 4-hour upper band 154.78 → September high two safeguards below 148.12 → 4-hour midband, the bulls' lifeline 142.51 → double bottom neckline. There's nothing to panic about in the capital situation. The rate is basically zero, basis normal, long-short ratio 60/40, slightly bullish but not crowded—no one-sided stampede. My approach is simple: no guessing. Volume rises above 152.99, looking at the 154 level; falling back below 148, retelling the story of the double-bottom rebound. The narrow range in the middle is just for show. A reminder: SPCX is a perpetual contract for SpaceX stock, not a coin. Its volatility follows U.S. market sentiment, so don't increase your position. This does not constitute investment advice; the market carries risks. $SPCX #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 BTC short-term: biased bearish consolidation Mid-term: still has a rebound structure ETH short-term: weaker than BTC Mid-term: if BTC stabilizes, ETH has greater elasticity US stocks are not in a full bear market More like: high interest rate repricing + internal rotation of AI growth stocks. Memory Fundamentals have not been damaged by the Fed, but valuations need to be digested. The biggest risk for the entire portfolio is not "AI demand suddenly disappearing." Rather: 10Y persistently >5% + Fed continuing to raise rates this year + oil prices rising again. ⸻ 📊 Direction probabilities for the next 1–2 weeks BTC: up 45% / sideways 20% / down 35% ETH: up 42% / sideways 18% / down 40% Nasdaq: up 45% / sideways 25% / down 30% SNDK/MU/SK hynix overall: up 45% / sideways 25% / down 30% The most notable point here is: "rate hikes" themselves are no longer considered the biggest bearish factor. What really determines the next trend is whether the 10Y yield can come down from around 5%. Moreover, last night the market already gave the first very interesting signal: the Fed is clearly hawkish, but the Nasdaq closed almost unchanged, and BTC did not continue accelerating toward 70K. This indicates the market is already absorbing this policy shock.$BTC / $ETH post-Fed 📊 Fed hiked 25bps. Unanimous. Warsh hawkish. Priced in. No panic dump. No melt-up. $BTC — around $75.8K. Wick $75.3K. $76K is still broken. Support: $75K. Lose it, and $73K is next. Bulls need $77.5K back. $80K is not in play. $ETH — around $2.38K. Range $2.37–$2.43 after the print. $2.45K is still resistance. $2.35K is the floor. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates yield reaching 5%. Net interest expenses for the 11-month fiscal year are about 1 trillion, exceeding defense spending and second only to social security. The Treasury is issuing new debt to pay off old debt while repurchasing long-term bonds to suppress interest rates, but the market may not buy it. The key link in this chain is not whether interest rates rise, but that credit cannot be rebuilt by printing money: the more you borrow, the higher the interest rate, the more you need to borrow ag#OKX百万规划师 If you were really given 1 million U to plan the current crypto market, how would you allocate it? I think the interesting part of this event is not about showing off your "all-in plan," but forcing us to rethink a question: how should risk be allocated in the current market? Especially after the Fed just raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market has started trading again on the possibility of another rate hike this year, the liquidity environment is not easy. If it were me, I definitely wouldn’t put all 1 million U out at once. Keep some cash on hand, waiting for real market panic; allocate some to relatively mature assets like BTC and ETH; then use a small amount for high-volatility altcoins and hot sectors. As for contracts, I would actually reduce my position size. When the market is good, everyone thinks leverage is an amplifier, but when the market reverses, it turns out to be a liquidation accelerator. So the real test of the "Million Planner" is not who dares to bet the hardest, but who can consider position size, risk, and opportunity all at once. In the current macro environment, surviving is actually more important than guessing the next big bullish candle. If you were given 1 million U, how would you allocate it? #OKX百万规划师 #BTC #ETH #cryptocurrency #investment #cryptoLast night I had a BTC short position, and now I'm preparing to break even and exit. After Powell's speech, the market's expectation for continued rate hikes rose again, so I placed a short order around 76400. After entering, BTC did drop for a while, reaching a low near 75000, and that position was profitable at the time. But starting from early morning, it slowly pulled
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