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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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尘归尘,土归土,现在来看,昨天的“选举结束的靴子”行情是不是属于短期噪音? 昨天收尾那一句不要“半场开香槟”没想到成为谶语,今天一直有事耽误了及时更新,刚下花了一个小时简单检索了一下目前所有的消息,其实逻辑依旧是周一宏观框架中提到的那样 本周四杀能源+就业+利率+AI估值,除了能源放缓之外,其他都没落地,这是基础因素,而民主党中期选举全面胜选之后必然需要暂时满足选民的意愿,尤其是部分反对建设数据中心的候选人胜选,对AI监管的极端言论出现进一步击溃市场信心 但是,不管是美股的AI还是 加密的#Bitcoin 基本面依旧健康,中长期趋势依旧确定,正如前文所说,昨天是交易选举落地后的确定性,今天开始交易正式交易民主党掌控国会对AI 对加密带来的变化预期 接下来需要等待“四杀”局面逐渐确定,然后市场开始消化民主党带来的变数,市场自然会企稳然后走下一个新趋势 至于民主党对于AI的监管收紧是必然的,有助于AI中长期的发展,减缓泡沫风险,不用担心民主党直接限制AI发展,因为AI是美国的国运,也是中美军备竞赛的核心,美国高层是不会放任中国发展的#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Is the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections already decided? The Democrats are pushing to control Congress across five continents. Under such circumstances, what kinds of divergences will appear in politics, finance, macroeconomics, U.S. stocks, and crypto?
Is the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections already decided? The Democratic Party has consecutively taken control of key swing states across five regions, and under such circumstances, what kind of divergence will appear in politics, finance, macroeconomics, U.S. stocks, and crypto? As of 2 PM Beijing time on November 4, the vote count for the U.S. midterm elections has concluded. The Democratic Party has consecutively won several key swing states previously controlled by the Republican Party, achieving a sweeping victory. Vote count results: The core red states Texas and Iowa were taken by the Democrats, especially Texas, where the Democrats won the Senate election for the first time in 38 years. In the deep red state of South Carolina, the Democrats won a federal Senate election for the first time this century. The Republican losses in these key states indicate that under Trump's current leadership, the Republican Party has lost significant public support. Losing key states further reduces the Republican Party's influence in Congress. #美国中期选举:民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The vote count is not yet complete, but based on current tallies, the Democrats are expected to fully secure the majority seats in both the House and Senate, regaining control of Congress. This means the U.S. is shifting from unified Republican governance to a divided government with the Democrats controlling Congress and the Republicans controlling the White House. The main market conflicts will increase in the future. Under the political struggle between the two parties, whether Trump's policies can be implemented will shift from whether they can be proposed to whether they can be executed, whether fiscal compromises can be reached, and how financial conditions will be priced. Moreover, based on current support rates, in the medium to long term, the pressure for the Republican Party to win the next U.S. presidential election is enormous. If Trump realizes that the Republican Party cannot continue to hold the presidency, then

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