#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny I won't just focus on non-farm payrolls this week. July's non-farm payrolls already gave the market a reminder: employment is cooling down, but not weak enough for the Fed to easily pivot. Now Wash puts "inflation" front and center, so the key for September is not whether a single data point looks good or bad, but whether employment and inflation can both provide a clear enough direction. If I have to choose, I currently lean towards: keeping rates unchanged in September, but the market will continue to trade rate cut expectations. When I trade $BTC during such macro data weeks, I tend to reduce frequency. JOLTS shows labor demand, ADP shows employment changes, initial claims show short-term temperature, but the real market sentiment driver is still non-farm payrolls. But I won't bet on direction before the data is released. Because the easiest way to lose money in crypto is often not getting the trend wrong, but thinking you know the answer in advance and then getting wiped out by a single data candlestick. So this week I prefer to wait for the data and see how BTC moves. If data is weak but BTC can't rally, I will be cautious. If data is strong but BTC can't fall, I will reconsider the bearish logic. Data is the cause; price is the real answer of the market.

Currently, market sentiment is recovering, but it hasn't reached a true full-scale offensive stage yet. $BTC 78170, $ETH 2459, the gains are not exaggerated; instead, $OKB +2.93%, and some coins that had larger fluctuations earlier are rising more noticeably. This indicates the market is slowly repairing, but it feels more like testing the waters rather than blindly chasing gains. Personally, I don't really like chasing the strongest coins at times like this. What’s really worth watching is whether BTC can firmly hold above 78500 again, and whether ETH and $SOL can continue to keep up. If only a few coins are pulling up while BTC moves sideways, it’s very likely to turn into another localized rally. So my current thinking is simple: don’t guess the top, and don’t rush to call a bull market. First, see if capital can spread from "a few coins rising" to "a broad market rally." If this step happens, that’s a signal truly worth paying attention to. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

$ETH This move is quite interesting. It just surged to 2459 in 15 minutes, then was immediately pushed back near 2450, hitting the upper Bollinger Band before falling back, indicating significant selling pressure above 2450. My judgment is simple: trading volume has been gradually declining, with no capital entering the market. But I'm not in a hurry to be bearish. It has risen 31% in 30 days, and now it looks more like a turnover after an uptrend. Buy on dips; if volume really picks up and it can reclaim 2460, only then can we consider targeting 2500 next. Don't chase in the short term; wait for the market to give the answer.

80,000 is not a failed breakout, but a very standard "false breakout + pullback confirmation." $BTC on the 4H chart just dropped sharply from 81,520 to around 77,200, now pulling back to 77,800. This level was previously contested repeatedly, and now that it has been broken, it has become a resistance level. Next is simple: If it holds above 78,800, the bears' sell-off this time is likely a shakeout, and we can look back to 80,000 or even 81,500. If the rebound fails, 76,800 is the next critical lifeline. So the most dangerous thing now is not chasing shorts, but mindlessly turning bearish just because of one big bearish candle. The major trend is not completely broken, but the short-term structure has weakened. In this kind of market, it’s easiest to get hit from both sides. This is not a simple "crash," but a pullback from the 81,520 high to re-test the dense trading zone around 78,800. What really determines the next direction is whether it can hold back above this level. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈

After watching Warsh's speech, I feel that what the market really needs to reprice is a more troublesome matter: From now on, you can't expect the Federal Reserve to tell you how to trade next. Warsh's attitude is actually very clear—although PCE and CPI look temporarily good, they are not enough to prove that underlying inflation has completely returned to 2%; he also did not give a clear policy direction for September, nor is he willing to provide a fixed "reaction function." This may not be good news for BTC in the short term. Because the market used to follow a simple logic: Worsening data → rising expectations of rate cuts → improved liquidity → BTC rises. But now this chain is becoming increasingly unreliable. Especially when the market has priced the probability of a September rate hike close to 50%, the real danger is not the word "rate hike" itself, but a sudden reversal of expectations. If subsequent inflation and employment data continue to be strong, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and BTC is likely to come under pressure first. But I don't think this means the market is completely bearish. On the contrary, Whether BTC can still maintain its trend under less favorable macro conditions. If it can, it means the market's pricing logic is changing—BTC is increasingly like an independent asset, rather than simply following the Federal Reserve. When the Federal Reserve starts to "talk less," can the market still find its own direction? This may be more worth watching than whether there is a rate hike in September. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？

Tonight, I am actually not very eager for Walsh to give the market a "clear rate cut" answer. My expectation is: no rate hike, but hawkish wording. The reason is simple — core PCE hasn't returned to 2%, and employment hasn't significantly deteriorated, so the Fed has no need to rush to release easing signals now. For $BTC, this kind of environment is more likely to produce a very interesting trend: The market has already priced in quite a bit of "easing expectations" earlier, so if Walsh tonight only confirms no rate hike for the time being while emphasizing inflation risks, BTC is very likely to be hit short-term, possibly even triggering a quick long squeeze. But I won't turn bearish just because of a single down candle. What really matters is whether there is buying support after BTC pulls back. If after the news, BTC breaks key support but quickly recovers, it indicates this drop is more like a deleveraging washout; conversely, if US Treasury yields and the dollar both strengthen, and BTC breaks support with sustained volume, then the bullish structure needs to be reassessed. So my approach tonight is very clear: Don't bet on the direction before the speech; wait for the market to give the answer first. Hawkish doesn't necessarily mean BTC will fall; the key is how much the market has already priced in. Sometimes, the real bearish signal isn't the hawkish speech itself, but that — after the hawkish speech comes out, BTC doesn't actually fall. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？

The market is back to a familiar script: $BTC oscillates around 78,000, $ETH stands above 2,500, $SOL surges over 6% in a single day, mainstream coins collectively strengthen. Many people's first reaction to the green candlesticks is: "The bull market is back, hurry and get on board." But what I think is more worth paying attention to now is—the market is re-pricing risk appetite. This round of rally is not purely driven by sentiment. After BTC did not break the key support, bears waited in vain for a drop, and funds began to cover; ETH completed turnover around 2,400, and buying gradually took over; But in the short term, I will not blindly chase the rally. The biggest issue at the current position is not the lack of room to rise, but the chip pressure after a rapid increase. My view: In the short term, the 80,000 level for BTC is an important psychological barrier; if it holds with volume, market sentiment may further release; If it spikes and then falls back, it does not mean the trend is over; it is more likely to wash out chasing funds and make room for the next rally. A true trending market is never a straight line up; it is about continuously shifting chips into the hands of more determined holders amid ongoing divergences. Currently, I am more focused on: Whether BTC can hold the 78,000-79,000 range; Whether ETH can break through previous high resistance; Whether altcoin funds continue to spread. A bull market is not about how much it rises in a day, but whether funds have the willingness to keep entering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口

The bet is not on a decline, but on a cooling of sentiment. $ETH has rapidly surged from a low level, reaching a high near 2549, then failed to continue breaking through and has been oscillating repeatedly between 2400-2500. There are a few details on the chart worth noting now: First, the upward momentum is starting to weaken. On the 4-hour chart, although the price is still high, the MACD bars have clearly shortened, and the trading volume has not continued to expand. In the early stage of the rise, it was driven by capital, but if there is no incremental capital relay later, it is easy to enter a high-level turnover. Second, there is obvious resistance near 2500. This is not just an ordinary round number, but a dense trading area after a previous surge. If the bulls are really strong, they should quickly reclaim and hold above 2500, rather than grinding back and forth here. Third, short-term funds are somewhat unanimously bullish now. The most comfortable time in the market is often when a pullback is most likely. Of course, I am not bearish on the ETH trend. From a long-term perspective, the ETH ecosystem, institutional expectations, and market sentiment remain strong. This short position is: bullish on the big picture, taking advantage of a short-term pullback. My plan: Open a short near 2460 and observe the 2500 resistance. If it breaks below 2400, a pullback to the 2350-2380 area may find support. If volume expands again and it stands above 2500, the short logic fails, and I will admit the mistake and exit. Trend profits come from patience; volatility profits come from discipline. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡

The busier the market, the more it tests patience. A very obvious signal in today's market: $BTC, $ETH, these large-cap assets have started to show slight pullbacks, and mainstream coins are generally turning from red to weak. Some sentiment-driven coins have fallen even more noticeably, $DOGE, $XRP, $ZEC, $TRUMP, etc., with volatility further amplified. Many people see the previous breakout and start to worry: "Is the rally over?" "Is a big drop coming?" But I think this is more like a normal rotation after an increase. Previously, BTC broke through 80,000, market sentiment instantly heated up, chasing funds entered, and short-term profit takers naturally chose to cash out. A truly healthy rally cannot rise every day. If every pullback is met with capital support, it means market chips are being redistributed rather than driven purely by sentiment. Now I am more focused on two points: First, whether BTC can hold the key area after the breakout. Second, whether ETH and mainstream coins show signs of strengthening again after the pullback. In a big market, the easiest time to lose money is often not during a decline, but when you see others making money during a rise and start to lose your own rhythm. Trading is not about who rushes faster. Surviving and waiting for the opportunity that truly belongs to you is the beginning of compounding.

$BTC has finally broken out of the range this time. It lingered around 78,400–79,000 for so long that many people were shaken out, then a volume surge pushed it straight through 79,940, reaching a high of 81,266. Now is actually not the time to get excited. The 15-minute RSI is already clearly overbought, and the price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band. The short-term rally has been too fast, so the risk-reward ratio for chasing is no longer that comfortable. I'm more focused on 80,300. If this level breaks through and holds on a pullback, it means the previous range has completed a role reversal—resistance turning into support—and it’s possible to test previous highs or even push to new highs. But if it falls back into the range, then this breakout might turn out to be a "false breakout." My approach is simple: Don’t chase the breakout; wait for confirmation on the pullback. Being bullish on the big trend doesn’t mean buying every green candle. The most comfortable trades are often not buying at the peak of excitement, but waiting for the market to give you the answer itself. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口