Esta página solo tiene fines informativos. Algunos servicios y funciones pueden no estar disponibles en su jurisdicción.

How to Use Value at Risk (VaR) to Manage Your Cryptocurrency Assets

The crypto market is known for its extreme volatility, where the price of cryptocurrencies can vigorously fluctuate within a short period of time. In a market full of uncertainty, managing risks is therefore crucial for any traders, only by analyzing the possible risks of investments can traders determine the extent and occurrence ratio of potential losses in their portfolios.

To evaluate portfolio risk, we can make use of different tools in the market to calculate the “worse-case scenario” in trading, such as Value at Risk (VaR).

Understanding Value at Risk (VaR)

Dubbed the “new science of risk management”, Value at Risk (VaR) is a statistic that measures and quantifies the level of financial risk within a firm, a portfolio or a position over a specific time frame. It can be applied to measure the risk exposure of specific positions or whole portfolios.

A VAR statistic has three components: a time period, a confidence level and a loss amount (or loss percentage). Let’s look at an example of using VaR to calculate risks.

BTC/USDT: VaR Calculation

We will focus on the minute closing price of BTC/USDT between Aug 15–21, 2019 on OKX. This calculation assumes that log-returns are normally distributed.

Step 1: Calculate the minute log-returns

Minute log-returns can be calculated based on the below formula:

Here we use the logarithm of returns instead of price returns. The benefits of using log-returns, versus prices, is log-normality: assuming the prices are distributed log normally, the log return is conveniently normally distributed, which is handy given much of classic statistics presumes normality.

We can then divide the log-returns into 27 intervals: (-14%, -13%), (-12%, -11%), …, (12%, 13%), count the number of minute returns for each interval and we get the following histogram:

Step 2: Calculate the average and standard deviation of log returns

We can then calculate the average and standard deviation of log-returns based on the formulas:

The average (µ) of 10,080-minute log-returns turns out to be 0.001083%, and the standard deviation (σ) is 0.03170.

Step 3: Calculate VaR based on confidence intervals of normal distribution

Assuming the returns are normally distributed, we can see where do the worst 5% and 1% lie on the normal curve. They show trader’s desired confidence, the standard deviation and the average from the below table:

The Verdict

There are two ways to understand the VaR calculation results:

  • With 95% and 99% confidence, we can expect that the worst loss will not exceed 5.23% and 7.38% respectively;
  • If we invest $10,000, we are 95% and 99% confident that our worst minute-loss will not exceed $523 (=$10,000 x -5.23%) and $738 (=$10,000 x -7.38%) respectively.

VaR is useful for calculating the maximum expected loss on an investment over a given time and a specified degree of confidence. Traders can apply VaR to determine the level of risk or potential losses of their trading portfolios easily and hence take necessary measures to control the risks.

Aviso
Este contenido se proporciona solo con fines informativos y puede incluir productos no disponibles en tu región. No tiene por objeto proporcionar (i) asesoramiento en materia de inversión o una recomendación de inversión; (ii) una oferta o solicitud de compra, venta o holding de activos digitales; ni (iii) asesoramiento financiero, contable, jurídico o fiscal. El holding de activos digitales, incluidas las stablecoins, implica un alto grado de riesgo ya que estos pueden fluctuar en gran medida. Debes analizar cuidadosamente si el trading o el holding de activos digitales son adecuados para ti teniendo en cuenta tu situación financiera. Consulta con un asesor jurídico, fiscal o de inversiones si tienes dudas sobre tu situación en particular. La información (incluidos los datos de mercado y la información estadística, en su caso) que aparece en esta publicación se muestra únicamente con el propósito de ofrecer una información general. Aunque se han tomado todas las precauciones razonables en la preparación de estos datos y gráficos, no se acepta responsabilidad alguna por los errores de hecho u omisión aquí expresados.

© 2025 OKX. Este artículo puede reproducirse o distribuirse en su totalidad, o pueden utilizarse fragmentos de 100 palabras o menos de este artículo, siempre que dicho uso no sea comercial. Cualquier reproducción o distribución del artículo completo debe indicar también claramente lo siguiente: "Este artículo es © 2025 OKX y se utiliza con permiso". Los fragmentos permitidos deben citar el nombre del artículo e incluir su atribución, por ejemplo "Nombre del artículo, [nombre del autor, en su caso], © 2025 OKX". Algunos contenidos pueden generarse o ayudarse a partir de herramientas de inteligencia artificial (IA). No se permiten obras derivadas ni otros usos de este artículo.

Artículos relacionados

Ver más
trade-academy-beginner-4
Order Types

What are iceberg orders?

An iceberg order is an algorithmic order allowing users to slice large orders into multiple small orders. These orders will be placed on the market according to their preferred mode (quick execution/price-speed balance/passive queuing). When one of the smaller orders has been completely filled, or the level has been changed from the initial orders, the system will check the depth and place the order accordingly.
18 jul 2025
2
Forward Contracts vs. Futures Contracts What Are the Differences
Trading tools
Trading guide
Trading basics

How to use the iceberg trading bot

What are iceberg orders? Iceberg orders are large buys or sells broken down into many smaller orders. They may be useful when making a significant trade relative to the size of a given market. Even small orders can risk moving the asset price in an illiquid market, resulting in less favorable entry or exit prices for traders. Iceberg orders are designed to mask large orders and limit the impact of price slippage.
18 jul 2025
7
The Four Pillars of Engineering Management
Order Types

Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) Strategy: A Comprehensive Guide

TWAP, or Time-Weighted Average Price, is a popular trading strategy that is used by traders and investors aiming to minimize market impact and achieve a more accurate average price for an instrument o
18 jul 2025
Generic tokens thumbnail
DeFi
Staking

Top 13 ways to earn passive income from crypto in 2025

Cryptocurrencies have become increasingly popular over the past decade. Crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins, have gained widespread adoption and recognition. However, the crypto market is known for being highly volatile. With that being said, trading isn't the only ways you can earn income in the world of crypto. Now, market participants are able to earn passive income with relatively little effort.
17 jul 2025
Intermedio
77
Generic charts thumbnail
Technical analysis

Divergence Pattern explained: Understanding the basics

Cryptocurrencies have grown to become one of the most popular assets to trade in recent years, due the opportunities they present. However, these opportunities are only rewarding because they come wit
15 jul 2025
2
P2P vs. DEX blog
Web3
P2P

P2P vs. DEX: How should you swap your crypto?

The OKX Wallet offers two powerful ways to swap assets: DEX and P2P. While both are easy and secure, they each come with different benefits. Let's dive into which one might be best for you. What's a Decentralized Exchange (DEX) swap?
15 jul 2025
3
Ver más