Okay where are we in the current cycle and what does the past teach us? The current climate is eerily similar to the 2021 cycle in many ways. There we saw $ETH and most alts hit ATHs in April with a slight resurgence in some tokens towards the end of the year such as the alt L1s. In 2024 pretty much the same thing happened. $ETH and most alts hit ATHs in April. Afterwards we received a resurgence in some tokens such as AI. We also strangely had similar downfalls. In 2022 we saw the fall of both FTX and $LUNA. And in this cycle we saw the fall of projects like $OM and $MOVE. The ByBit exchange hack also saw an outflow of liquidity similar to exchange hacks in the past that became more pronounced over time. Again, eerily similar parallels. However, the overall market in my opinion is entirely dependent on BTC and ETH whether we like it or not. The macro environment put a damper on the overall run with tariffs, inflation and foreboding fears of war. But throughout this all smart money has been buying and as much as CT likes to hate ETH, they have indeed been buying ETH as well and it's still by far the most dominant altcoin by market cap. Historically, ATHs for ETH do rotate into other alts alongside more risk-on assets. Now the time horizon for the inflows into more alts in anyone's guess but the current uptick is likely just an appetizer for things to come. Expect things to calm down before the next leg up as nothing ever goes up in a straight line. Those will be the opportunities for those sidelined. Whether the overall cycle is in its first inning or near its end is again dependent upon your view. However, if things are indeed in line with the 2021 run, most assets have likely seen their local bottoms or are near their bottoms. The coming weeks and months will be instrumental to better understand the direction. No rate cuts + War + Tariffs = The uptick will be very short lived Rate cuts + End of some wars + Tariff resolution = Massive uptrend ahead I fundamentally believe the current administration is rife with capitalists who likely put the economy above all else and Trump himself treats the stock market and crypto as his scoreboard. Policy decisions and regulations in general likely will lead to the latter scenario outlined above. My guess? We will see resolutions to the Russia-Ukraine war alongside a longer term solution for tariffs. Now the ball is always in the Fed's court but at a minimum rates will either stay steady or go down this year when concerns around a stagflation brought on by tariffs subside. Only time will tell but I personally would be overall very bullish for 2025 and perhaps even into early 2026. Let's come back to this post in a few months and see.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ May the odds ever be in your favor.