Spent the last few days deep in @trylimitless & there's more here that you should know🧵 ➠ How it works? > You bet on whether btc/eth/sol closes up or down in the next hour/day/week > Uses an advanced orderbook (CLOB) model for efficient matching (This encourages short term speculation & options-style payoffs, with lower friction than traditional AMMs) > Every 60 min the market resolves using Pyth price feeds (pulls from CEXs like binance) > Everything settles onchain Everything looks fine but the actual trading dynamics are weird. ➠ The liquidity situation The order books are thin. Like really thin. > $100 bet moves the odds about 3% > $500 bet moves around ~7% But when someone bets $2000 or more, it messes up the whole market. Like the odds will be at 55%, then someone drops a big bet & it jumps to 80%. Takes a few minutes for other people to bet the other side & fix it. Happens pretty regularly. If you're paying attention, these moments create openings. I tried catching a few yesterday. ➠ Weekends are different > Weekends have less liquidity than weekdays > Probability swings are way more volatile > Opportunities to fade big bets happen way more often Polymarket doesn't have this problem because their books are deeper. @trylimitless is still small enough that’s why here timing actually matters. ➠ If you want to farm volume 1. Bet few minutes before the hour closes (gets you volume credit without moving price much) 2. Split bigger amounts across multiple hours instead of one big bet (Probably around $100) 3. Bet with high probability outcomes (60-70%+ odds) if you just want consistent wins 4. Their points system rewards people who trade regularly, not whales making huge bets. So focus on regular trading. ➠ Recently I mentioned here that I invested into their IDO. Here’s why👇 > @cbventures invested in them recently > It hit 89x oversubscribed on kaito ($89M pledged on a $1M raise) > $402M total volume makes it the biggest prediction market on base (September saw the biggest volume ~$63M) > S2 points program is live > Probably TGE is in October The product itself is interesting. It's basically zero-day options dumbed down to yes/no bets. Settles every hour. No liquidations. ➠ There are some concerns I’ve w them too… 1. Will liquidity improve after the token launches 2. They already do crypto & stocks, wonder if they'll add political or social events 3. Does the whale manipulation get worse or fix itself with more liquidity Imo this fits into @base' broader push for accessible consumer DeFi. Note I’m not trying to shill this. Just sharing what i'm seeing.