Ever wish the NFL was a publicly traded company? Me too. In my view, the closest way to get exposure to the NFL on the public markets currently is Genius Sports $GENI Genius, for those unfamiliar, is a sports-betting data provider in an industry that is essentially a duopoly between them and Sportradar $SRAD. Yesterday, Genius Sports secured an (early) extension of their *exclusive* data distribution deal with the NFL for real-time stats & sports-betting data thru 2029. The company is a sub $2.5 billion market cap doing $575M in annualized revenue based on Q1 '25 ($702M if you annualize Q4 '24), growing total group revenue +20% y/y & sports-betting revenue +44% y/y. As of previous quarter, EPS still slightly negative but adjusted EBITDA at $20M (3x y/y) and EBITDA margin to 14% (from 6% last year). Genius has exclusive data distribution rights for other popular leagues, too. - Premier League & English Football League thru 2029 - NCAA postseason events thru 2032 - PGA Tour - NASCAR It's a "winner-agnostic" way to play sports-betting. For those who don't know what that means, it means it doesn't matter to them which sportsbooks (Draftkings, Fanduel etc.) win out the customer acquisition war in regional or national markets. They have to get the data from Genius anyway. From a technical perspective the monthly chart is very explosive. The 50-month moving average emerged back in December 2024, and since then it has acted as perfect support for price for 5 & a half consecutive months. The 9-month EMA crossed over the 50-month in March of this year, and price clung to it beautifully. A break back above $11.50 would open up massive range for the stock. I have traded Genius $GENI successfully many times in the past and always considered a longer-term position because I thought the business model was promising. I believe yesterday's early extension of the exclusive NFL deal is a major catalyst as a testament to their staying-power in this business and a validation of the idea that their dramatic rise in EBITDA has legs. I also believe there is an opportunity for margin expansion as the market begins to recognize Genius as a SaaS company with a massive total addressable market, with the undercurrent of the inevitable expansion of sports-betting as an accelerant. As always, this is not financial advice and I am simply sharing the reasons why I have taken a position in Genius Sports. I am in common stock and $10 calls across various expirations. I have a level of maximum risk on this position (if price falls below the 200-day moving average). As with all SMID cap stocks, you should expect this stock to be highly volatile and more risky than stalwart, bluechip names. Cheers and thanks for reading 🍻