It turns out: my analysis is very reasonable! Currently, $BTC is fluctuating around 63,000, with a low of 62,400 last night! You can ignore my analysis and not interact with me, but never go against the trend, because that is irresponsible to your wallet. The US stock market has already entered a phase of adjustment from a strong period. During the downward phase, BTC is unlikely to make significant moves; maintaining stable range-bound fluctuations is already good. The overall trend still mainly continues wide-range oscillations. Don't have illusions about a big market move, at most a phase rebound! In a weak oscillation phase, the liquidation map becomes a very good directional indicator. This deserves attention; don't act blindly. Wait for a cost-effective position before operating. Only with capital is there a future! $ETH $SNDK

#HYPE faces another 100 million yuan token unlock, Japanese companies enter the market for the first time The biggest controversy around HYPE recently has been the continuous token unlocking. Many people see the "100 million yuan-level unlock" and their first reaction is: institutions are going to dump. But what the market really needs to focus on is not the unlocking itself, but whether the unlocked tokens enter the secondary market to create sustained selling pressure. Many strong projects go through this process in their early stages. During the uptrend phase, the market is willing to assign a future valuation; During the correction phase, the market starts to recalculate: Can current revenue support the current market cap? Can future growth still be realized? This is also why HYPE has shown obvious volatility recently. From the candlestick structure perspective: HYPE experienced a strong trend rally earlier, with price quickly rising from a low level, then forming a clear oscillation distribution area at a high level. Currently around $52.5, it is the first major correction phase after the rise. In the short term: the $55-$60 range is the first resistance level. If it cannot break through $60 with volume, it indicates the market still has disagreements about the high valuation, and the trapped positions above will continuously exert pressure. Key support levels below: First support: $48-$50 range, which is currently the market’s psychological defense line and a battleground between bulls and bears. If $50 holds effectively, it means funds still recognize HYPE’s long-term logic, and the correction is more of a healthy turnover. If it breaks below $50: The next target may be the $42-$45 range, which could become a stronger token concentration area. From a fundamental perspective, HYPE’s biggest advantage still exists: it is not purely relying on conceptual hype. Hyperliquid has real trading volume, real fee income, and a strong on-chain trading ecosystem. This is also why the market has always compared it to early BNB. But the problem is also obvious: the market has already priced in very high expectations. Future gains cannot rely solely on the "decentralized perpetual DEX story," but need to see: Continued growth in trading volume; Sustained revenue increase; Ecosystem expansion being realized. Regarding the entry of Japanese companies: This is actually a signal worth paying attention to; institutional funds starting to focus on HYPE means the market has not completely denied its value. True large capital usually does not chase the market at its most frenzied moments but looks for opportunities during panic correction phases. My judgment: in the short term, HYPE is still in the adjustment and token exchange phase, and blind chasing near $52 is not recommended. Better opportunities may be at the first support confirmation around $48-$50. If the market panics further: $42-$45 could be a higher cost-performance area. But if HYPE reclaims $60 with significantly increased volume, this round of correction may end, and the next phase target will look back toward $70 or even higher. For HYPE, what truly determines its future height is not a single token unlock. It is whether, when the market goes crazy again, it can still prove it deserves a higher valuation. What the market is testing now is not faith, but whether after a project’s adjustment, there is still capital willing to continue believing in it.

Couldn't resist going in just now! Taking advantage of the strong opening of the US stock market, I went short directly. If SanDisk rises to 1800, I will lose ten million……

#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% Amazon's guidance is indeed weak, but the market is not trading on missing tens of billions in sales next quarter; it's trading on AWS accelerating again, proving that the massive AI investment has started to shift from a "burning cash story" to real revenue. The core of this rally boils down to two words: AWS. In Q2, AWS revenue grew 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of about 31%, marking the fastest growth in over four years; AWS operating margin approached 39%. Advertising revenue also grew 26% to $19.8 billion. The market had been most worried that Amazon would lag behind Microsoft and Google in the AI cloud competition, but this earnings report directly disproves that. The Q3 revenue guidance is $197 billion to $202 billion, below the market expectation of $203.9 billion, but this seems more like a timing issue: Prime Day was moved into Q2, which pulled forward some Q3 retail revenue. Compared to selling a bit less in e-commerce, capital cares more that the higher-margin AWS is accelerating. Amazon also raised its full-year capital expenditure from $200 billion to $220 billion. Normally this would be negative news, as free cash flow has dropped to negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months; however, management says compute demand still exceeds supply, and some AWS capacity for 2027 is already booked. The market interprets the increased spending as "expanding capacity only with orders," not blind cash burning. However, note that the large increase in earnings per share includes huge unrealized gains from Anthropic equity, so it cannot be fully regarded as core profit. Outlook: After a short-term surge, a period of consolidation is likely; whether it can continue to rise in the medium term depends on whether AWS can maintain over 30% growth and whether capital expenditure can convert into cash flow. If the cloud business continues to accelerate, there is still room for valuation re-rating; if AWS slows and free cash flow continues to deteriorate, this 9% gain is more likely just an earnings pulse. The market forgave the weak guidance because AWS delivered a more valuable future.

Why do you still lose money even after buying a good project? When I first entered the market, I always thought that as long as the project was good enough, the price would eventually rebound. So I studied the team, technology, ecosystem, and narrative; the logic seemed increasingly sound, and I kept increasing my position. Later I realized: good assets and good trades are fundamentally different things. No matter how good a project's fundamentals are, if the valuation at purchase has already priced in several years of future growth, if unlocked tokens are still being released continuously, and if there is no new external capital to absorb them, then the so-called long-term value is just a comforting story among holders in the short term. The asset can continue to develop, but the coin price might first drop by 80%. Market trading is never about "whether it is good or not," but about "how much good news is already priced in and how much upside surprise remains." What everyone knows as excellent is often already reflected in the price; real profits come when reality turns out better than market expectations. My biggest mistake before was proving to myself with fundamentals that my purchase was right, but rarely studying token cost basis, liquidity, and valuation. When prices fell, I blamed the market for not recognizing value; when trapped, I talked about long-termism, and in the end, the project survived but my account was gone first. Only after maturing did I understand: fundamentals determine whether a target is worth long-term attention, while price and odds determine whether it is worth betting on now. Correct direction but wrong price is also a failed trade. Remember: a good project does not equal a good price, and a good price does not equal an immediate rise.

Five days passed in a flash. Three days of sharp decline, two days of recovery, staging a "race against death" in the capital market. SNDK fell 35% in 3 days, then surged 40% in 2 days; SKHY fell 30% in 3 days, then surged 35% in 2 days; MU fell 36% in 3 days, then surged 25% in 2 days. These three stocks attracted the entire market's attention in just a few days. Some cut losses in panic and left, while others picked up bloodied chips at the bottom and made a fortune. Still the same question I asked everyone three days ago: Do you dare to pick up bloodied chips? Actually, the cruelest part of the market is never that it doesn't give opportunities, but that when opportunities appear, most people lack the courage to reach out. During the crash, everyone sees risk; during the rise, everyone sees opportunity. But real money often comes when others are fearful. What is the biggest change in these stocks? It's not that their fundamentals changed drastically in three days, but that market sentiment completed an extreme switch. Three days ago, they were core assets of the AI era, stars chased by capital; three days later, due to a round of panic selling, they became "trash" that everyone avoids. This is the biggest contradiction in the capital market: Good assets can have bad prices, and bad sentiment can wrongly kill good assets. Many people lose money not because they chose the wrong direction, but because they were too excited when buying and too panicked when selling. A truly mature investor is not the one who is most frenzied during the rise, but the one who remains calm when the market is most chaotic. Of course, picking up bloodied chips is not blindly bottom-fishing. Cheap does not necessarily mean it will rise, and a crash does not mean an immediate reversal. Real opportunities come from: fundamentals not collapsing, but prices being hammered down by sentiment to value. The market always rewards two kinds of people: One who stays rational amid the frenzy; The other who dares to think amid panic. Everyone wants to catch the last leg of the rise, but the real big opportunities are often hidden in the deep night no one dares to look at. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX

The red circled segment in the chart represents a very classic bearish continuation pattern, commonly known as a bear flag. From the candlestick structure, after a large bearish candle completed a sharp drop, there was no volume-increasing bullish engulfing reversal. Instead, several weeks of very small-bodied doji and small bullish candles followed. This weak sideways movement with a slight upward tilt indicates extreme hesitation from bottom-fishing funds outside the market, with bulls showing no intention to actively attack. Looking at historical trends, this weekly structure of sharp decline followed by weak rebound is highly destructive. Reviewing the 2018 consolidation after breaking below $6000, or the resistance near $30000 after the 2022 crash, the same trading tactics were basically used. The main force’s intention is very straightforward: to create panic through a sharp drop after distributing at previous highs, then deliberately halt near seemingly key support levels. They use prolonged narrow-range consolidation to repair severely oversold technical indicators, while giving retail investors the illusion of a bottom that won’t fall further. When market sentiment becomes numb at this point and retail investors feel safe enough to start bottom-fishing on the left side, a large amount of long stop-loss orders accumulate below. From market analysis, the subsequent move is very likely a long sideways phase followed by a drop. This weak resistance can’t last long and usually ends with a downward-accelerating crash that breaks the deadlock, hunting stop-losses of bulls below 60000, completing the final deep panic washout. In trading, directly abandon the fantasy of heavy bottom-fishing at this position. This is a highly deceptive bull trap zone with no risk-reward advantage. $BTC $ETH $SNDK

The recent viral traffic secrets: (1) Lost everything, bankrupt overnight, my family bore the disaster for me! (2) Only after hitting zero did I realize: what I lost was not money but my life! (3) In the bull market, I thought I was a genius; the bear market told me: I was just lucky once! (4) Lost three years of savings in three days, the US stock market crash woke me up completely. (5) Already financially free, greed made me lose everything including principal and interest. (6) At this moment, I realize the once stock god was actually a joke. (7) Now, standing on the rooftop reflecting on the past, if there is a next life, I will never play US stocks again! (8) Watching the US stock market crash, I survived the disaster, very grateful I always restrained myself from playing! The titles are given to you, you should be able to write the content, if not I can teach you, if still not, use AI to write it, hahaha, the eighth title is really how I feel inside, I even want to write it out! #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点