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#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 I think AMD's earnings report is unlikely to exceed expectations Brothers, recently this market situation is really exhausting to watch, with good and bad news all tangled together. BTC keeps rubbing back and forth around the 80,000 mark. What's going on with this bottom?
🛢 The Middle East powder keg is ignited again: US troop buildup, uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz navigation, oil prices stubbornly high. This directly adds fuel to inflation expectations.
📊 The Fed remains tough: October PMI hits a 53-month high, and corporate selling price increases are the fastest since 2022. Strong economy + rising inflation, rate cuts? Don’t even think about it.
💰 ETF funds playing “fast run”: just a few days ago they were buying wildly with 1 billion, but in the past two days they turned around and dumped over 700 million. BTC was once smashed through 80,000 and the 50-day moving average, only held up by BlackRock’s small net inflow (560 million).
See it now? The core issue is that inflation can’t be suppressed. The market expects the October FOMC will most likely pause rate hikes, but the real danger lies in the post-meeting statements and the shadow of a December rate hike. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $SUI
The SUI unlock in early November is reported differently: DeFiLlama says 2.07 million tokens, Token Unlocks says 13.15 million, and Tokenomics.com directly gives 22.6 million. The same event, but the numbers differ by almost ten times.
This is not a matter of someone miscalculating. Counting only the Mysten Labs treasury tokens versus including early contributors are fundamentally different scopes. The standards are also inconsistent: some count based on tokens already released into circulation, some on total supply, some recognize blocks but not calendar days, each source checks differently, and the dates can differ by two or three days.
From my own experience, relying on one source’s number and acting prematurely is risky—the volume is nowhere near that large, so you get stuck halfway and then watch it recover. Now I’ve learned to only look at the range: this unlock falls between 2 million and 23 million tokens, against a circulating supply of 4.1 billion, at most 0.55%, at least 0.05%.
Pitifully small. But market sentiment is irrational; even a 0.3% drop can create a significant dip. I’ve been burned by small unlocks before—better to earn less than to be the one catching a flying knife.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Even with the same 100x leverage, some positions can just lie back and wait, while this one must be watched closely—there's only one difference: thinness."
$SOL only dropped 2.28%, with a buffer of just 2.34%. This asset normally swings much more than that in a day, so it doesn't need a trend reversal or positive news; just a slight shake can wipe out that 228% gain.
100x leverage magnifies 2.28% into 228%, and likewise magnifies 2.34% into zero. It gives you the fastest profits but also the shortest survival time—these two statements are one and the same.
The chart itself holds up: 103.86 hasn't been reclaimed, so the overall trend is still bearish. But it didn't break 100.67 when touched, indicating that resistance is stronger than I expected.
So I never decide to close based on "how much I've earned," only on how far it is from the cost line. 2.34% is too close. I push for breakeven, minimize exposure, follow through if it breaks 100 down to 98, and admit I'm wrong if it stands back above 103.86. $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $ETH
Hayes' liquidation wave has sold about $49.25 million worth of tokens so far, with $49.24 million USDC returned, not a cent left. Among them, there are 6,400 ETH, valued at 15.2 million at the time.
But look at ETH now, 2332, only down 1% in 24 hours, lowest touched 2310. Such a huge selling pressure slammed down, yet the price acts like nothing happened, funding rate 0.004%, almost zero.
Last time I saw him call the top, I got proven wrong; he sold over 8 million ETH at 3500, then later said he bought it all back. I no longer take his words as direction, but I remember his actions. What I note this time: after clearing out, he just watches, like cashing profits waiting for macro, not like he knows some hidden risk.
So I don’t blame Hayes for this round of decline. If you really want to watch, it’s retail moving BTC to Binance hitting a 6-month high, and whale inflows still decreasing; this divergence is more worth pondering.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC just reclaimed $80,000, but a weekend liquidation wiped out over $800 million. With the Fed rate decision countdown underway, what exactly is the market betting on?
During the Asian session, CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin around $80,162, down about 0.41% in 24 hours. The weekend low briefly touched approximately $79,146 before climbing back above the psychological threshold. Coinglass data indicates that over the past 24 hours, crypto market liquidations exceeded about $810 million, with long liquidations around $689 million — weekend liquidity was thin, and the leverage sell-off was amplified after breaking below $80,000.
On the other hand, CME FedWatch prices the October 28 rate decision at about 90.6% probability of "no change, maintaining 3.75%–4.00%" and only about 9.4% chance of a 25bp hike. This means short-term volatility is more driven by the tone of the statement and whether the chair’s Q&A will raise December hike expectations, rather than whether there will be an immediate hike this week.
Policy side is also unsettled: the Treasury/FinCEN previously withdrew proposed reporting rules targeting non-custodial wallets, keeping the existing AML framework intact; however, pricing power this week still mainly lies with the Fed. $ETH is also weak in sync, and risk assets overall are waiting for a clear signal.
Are you focusing more on the support near 78,000, or the rate decision statement on Wednesday? Don't be dazzled by the $21 billion👀｜The key point of Strategy's earnings report is not the income statement
Strategy turned a profit on the books in Q3, with digital asset gains of about $21 billion, ending four consecutive quarters of losses. Last quarter, it still took an $8.3 billion paper loss due to $BTC decline, but this quarter it flipped the page directly📈.
But this wasn't earned from operations. The new standard ASU 2023-08 effective in 2025 requires Bitcoin to be revalued at market price at the end of each quarter, with gains or losses going directly into net income. In other words, what the income statement looks like largely depends on where BTC's closing price lands on the last day of the quarter🎢.
The real signals are in the actions:
· Slowing down on accumulation: In the first week of October, only 334 BTC were bought, compared to 950 and 1665 BTC in the previous two weeks respectively, buying less and less🐢.
· Spent $176 million to repurchase preferred shares STRC at a discount, starting to repair the balance sheet🧱.
Big coin holders are no longer hoarding coins, which is much more important than the $21 billion paper figure.
So when looking at Strategy's earnings report, don't just focus on the net income line. Watch BTC-per-share — how much Bitcoin corresponds to each share, and whether it has been diluted by issuance or premium🔍. The income statement is a mirror of BTC price; capital moves are the real signals. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Three narratives, each accounting for itself
At the same point in time, three small coins follow three different logics.
$WLD is quoted at 0.4649. It resembles a long-term gamble on an "identity network + token distribution" table: iris scans for identity, activity level determines token flow. Behind the price, the market is actually weighing two things—whether a global identity network can truly be established, and whether continuous token release will outpace demand. Without a BTC-style hard cap, WLD's challenge lies not in the story but in the race between release and absorption.
$APR is quoted at 0.02598. It stands within the Monad ecosystem, providing liquid staking and MEV yields: stake MON, earn aprMON, share MEV. It rose 1.17% that day with a volume of 7.62 million, indicating the new ecosystem was briefly energized by capital. Such new protocols are elastic and retreat quickly; the key is whether Monad will have follow-up capital. Chasing highs easily catches the peak of sentiment.
$TRUMP is quoted at 1.653. Pricing for political memes doesn’t rely on profit statements but on personality news and event heat. The issuance volume is fixed in advance; it rose 0.67% that day with a turnover of 64.1 million USD, active for a meme. But once the event window closes, both buy and sell orders may thin simultaneously; a rebound does not equal a trend.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Ten consecutive bullish candles climbed from 3995.7 to 4013.3, a rise of 17.6 points, with 8.06 million contracts traded. Just now, two bearish candles used 3.75 million contracts to give back the entire 17.6 points, bottoming at 3992.6, even dipping below the starting point by 3.1 points.
The ledger is straightforward: it takes 8.06 million contracts to push up a segment, but only 3.75 million contracts to push down the same distance.
At 06:00, the 3,501,130 contracts traded was the largest in 24 hours, pushing to 4013.3 and closing at 4010.9, with an upper shadow of 2.4 points; immediately after, at 08:00, volume of 2,496,577 contracts smashed down to 3992.6. The money pushing the price up and the money smashing it down is the same.
Current price is 4003.6, 24h +0.14%, MA20 at 4001.245 just 2.4 points below.
If the 4006.4~4008.4 rebound fails and the 1H candle closes bearish with volume ≥1.5 million, short with stop loss at 4011.5, first target 3992.6 with odds 3.2, break below target 3980 with odds 6.0.
If volume closes above 4013.3 (volume ≥2 million), cancel the short, no reference above, I won’t chase longs.
3992.6~4006.4 is the just-fought battlefield, I won’t enter.
$XAU
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk) Over the weekend, $BTC dipped to 79,840 but then reclaimed above 80,000, yet the trading volume was only half of the 7-day average, which is a typical sign of volume contraction at the bottom.
The Middle East situation has already downgraded to background noise, so don’t treat it as the main logic. I judge that before the interest rate decision settles, it will be a low-volume oscillation around 80,000. Hold your spot positions and don’t fuss; those wanting to move should wait until after Wednesday.
BTC is pressed down by three moving averages above; the MA30 is near 82,900, and a rebound to that area will most likely be pushed back. The upper boundary of the range at 87,200 is an even bigger ceiling.
$ZEC shows volume and price not cooperating: it fell from 1,373 down to around 1,200, and volume shrinks on rebounds, with few chasing the rally. The current price of 1,196 is just above the MA20, and the RSI at 47.8 is neither overbought nor strong.
But regardless, it’s the only one with a positive 7-day gain; this privacy coin is showing some strength against the trend.
$ETH, don’t catch a falling knife near 2,300; wait until the whale liquidation line is hit before considering. That $397 million long whale on-chain added $9.21 million margin last night, pushing the liquidation price from 2,256 down to 2,181. The current price is 2,327, only $146 away from the critical point. #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 ETF outflows of $773.5 million in two days! Institutions retreating, who is still absorbing the $BTC?
$BTC fell below $80,000, bulls faced massive liquidations, and the capital flow in spot ETFs poured cold water on the market.
On October 22, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635.6 million; on October 23, another net outflow of $137.9 million. A total outflow of $773.5 million in two days!
The most alarming aspect of these numbers is not how scary they are, but that they remind everyone: do not treat institutional funds as an eternal safety net.
Many people see continuous ETF inflows and think Wall Street is bottom-fishing; when prices drop, they firmly believe institutions are deliberately suppressing prices. The problem is, you trust the data when funds flow in, but refuse to accept reality when funds flow out. Is this investing, or just psychological comfort for your holdings?
$BTC fell below $80,000, with over $800 million liquidated, bulls being the main victims. Now with consecutive large net outflows from ETFs, price, leverage, and capital sentiment are all under pressure. The market is clearly not as simple as the optimists think.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Bitcoin closed down -2.39% this week but held above the 50-week moving average for the sixth consecutive week, despite adjustments in the US market. Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$LIGHT large sell order cost rising. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell increased from 4.28% to 6.08%. Slippage rising, order book thinning.
$ORDER large buy order cost decreasing, sell order cost increasing. Simulated buy/sell slippage for a 100,000 scale changed from 1.12%/0.96% to 0.94%/1.09%. Compared to the previous window, one side's cost rose while the other's fell.
$APR after amplifying orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated buy/sell slippage for a 10,000 scale is 0.16%/0.18%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.82%/0.82%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in buy and sell costs indicates overall depth is relatively thin.To see if a derivatives platform is actually used, I usually first check the real on-chain transactions instead of looking at the K-line.
I just checked the data for GRVT on DefiLlama. As of October 23, the nominal trading volume of perpetual contracts in the past 30 days was about $14.6 billion, with open interest at $437 million. These two numbers need to be read separately: nominal trading volume indicates repeated opening and closing of positions by users, while open interest shows the real positions currently held inside. $14.6 billion versus $437 million means a high turnover rate and relatively light positions, typical of an active short-term market, not propped up by a few large orders.
But nominal trading volume does not equal revenue, and this must be clear. Market making rebates, wash trading, and promotional subsidies can all inflate the nominal value, while the actual fee income is another matter.
What’s more worth watching is the TVL. In March this year, about $114 million was locked in the platform, but now only $33.65 million remains, a 70% drop in seven months. Trading is happening, but funds are unwilling to stay, which is the most awkward situation for DeFi derivatives platforms.
So their solution is planned for GRVT 2.0 in November: integrating trading and Earn, allowing yield-bearing assets to be used directly as margin. Simply put, the interest-bearing assets you deposit don’t need to be redeemed first before opening a position; one amount of money can do two things at once. This really improves capital efficiency, giving users a reason to keep funds on the platform.
Of course, plans are not the same as going live. The list of supported assets, liquidation parameters, and margin discount ratios have not been disclosed yet. I will decide whether to put money in once it actually launches. 😱 $BTC late-night "leverage avalanche": 220,000 people liquidated, while ZEC is staging a covert capital battle
📉 At 22:15, $BTC crashed through 80,000 with a massive 15-minute bearish candle, bottoming at 79,773; ETH simultaneously fell below 2,350. Over $200 million liquidated in 15 minutes, $812 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 225,000 traders wiped out, with longs accounting for 668 million. This is not a bear market, but a targeted explosion of high leverage 💥.
🌍 Multiple macro factors hit simultaneously: US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $635 million, the largest in nearly four months; Brent crude surged to $116, reigniting inflation expectations; BTC daily chart closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since August. Weekend liquidity is thin, and once a level breaks, it triggers a stampede.
🔍 But ZEC’s trump card is complicated: Grayscale ETF had a weekly outflow of $93.6 million, whales dumped 15,000 coins, making the bearish narrative obvious; on the other hand, Zcash investment products saw a weekly net inflow of $42 million, with $20.52 million on Friday alone. Capital is buying, price is suppressed, futures open interest dropped 12.45%, top traders’ short exposure exceeds 90%. This is not simple selling; it’s a structure where leveraged longs are being liquidated and spot funds are quietly absorbing 🧩.
⚖️ In short: the market is deleveraging, ZEC is changing hands. Don’t mistake liquidation for a trend, don’t mistake capital flow for noise. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 最脆弱的一环从来不是价格，是仓位在窄幅里越堆越满。 你猜下周先被洗掉的是多头还是空头？ 这两天看盘有种很微妙的感觉，BTC 在 80800 附近几乎贴着走，波动小到让人犯困，但持仓量反而逆势往上堆，短线爆仓已经到 17.5 亿美元。价格不动、杠杆变重，这不是强势信号，更像风险在悄悄积攒。没有放量突破之前追单，基本是在震荡区里交学费。 真正压着节奏的是日历。周四凌晨美联储决议，同一天还有 ECB 会议、美国 GDP 和 PCE 一起公布，周五再叠加期权到期，四件事排在一周里，市场大概率会先反复筛掉不坚定的仓位，而不是爽快给一个上车点。这种时候我盯的不是涨跌，是跨市场那条传导链：美债收益率一动，风险偏好先收缩，然后才轮到 crypto 承接。 ETH 是最容易骗人的那一档。2360 一带反复受压，跌幅比 BTC 更大，持仓持续撤出，爆仓 15.7 亿。本月 ETF 流出接近 100 亿美元，质押收益又明显低于美债，资金没有回来的理由。弱势没被扭转前，抄底更像提前接下一段下行，而不是捡便宜。 SOL 则是另一种疼法，围绕 102 缩量震荡，买盘不断被打掉，但散户多头占比还在 76% 以上。预Today I reviewed the on-chain data of GRVT, quite interesting.
In the past 30 days, the nominal perpetual trading volume was $14.6 billion, with only $437 million open interest. High trading volume but light positions indicate frequent in-and-out activity, not just holding still.
However, TVL has dropped from $114 million in March to $33.65 million now, with funds continuously flowing out.
In November, they plan to launch version 2.0, merging trading and Earn, allowing yield assets to be used directly as margin. This direction is promising, but whether it can succeed depends on the actual parameters after launch.🔥 What BTC fears most this week might not be the Fed rate hike!
Brothers, today I studied this week's economic calendar and found a detail that's easy to overlook.
On October 28, the Fed will first announce the interest rate decision; on the 29th, the US Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data will be released one after another.
📊 The market is currently widely betting on a pause in rate hikes in October, but the real trouble is: when the Fed makes its decision, the inflation data investors care most about hasn't been released yet.
What does this mean?
Even if a pause in rate hikes meets expectations, BTC may not immediately strengthen.
If the subsequently released PCE shows inflation remains stubborn, the market may raise expectations for a rate hike in December again.
⚠️ What's more coincidental is that on the 30th, BTC monthly options expire, which could further amplify short-term volatility.
I'm actually not in a hurry to guess the rise or fall now.
More than what the Fed will do this time, I'm more concerned whether the market will suddenly change its judgment on the next meeting after the decision.
This week, are you more worried about the inflation data or the options expiration?
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #FOMC #美联储 #加密货币上周，加密市场再度走弱，比特币在周末一度跌破8万美元，创一个多月以来新低。下跌过程中，杠杆仓位接连被清算，仅周六的一个四小时窗口内，市场就有约4亿美元的多头被强平。$BTC ETF资金流向也出现了明显变化，上周前半段，美国现货比特币ETF仍有资金流入，但周四、周五转为集中流出，后半周的撤资规模明显增加。 比特币ETF全周虽录得小幅净流入，但资金热度已经降温，以太坊现货ETF的情况更弱，全周净流出约2.21亿美元。 市场承压的原因，也不只是加密市场自身问题。当前中东局势依然反复，很难判断局势会往哪个方向发展（也可能只有川普自己知道）。 而中东风险最让市场担心的，是它对能源价格和通胀的影响，地缘冲突一旦扰乱石油供应，油价就可能继续上涨，而增加通胀压力。 对于期待美联储放松货币政策的市场来说，显然不是好消息，即使美联储暂时不加息，只要油价持续高企，市场对后续降息的预期也可能受到影响。 本周又恰逢美联储议息会议，将会是市场关注的重点。目前，市场普遍预期美联储会维持利率不变，因此真正影响行情的，可能不是有没有加息，而是联储如何看待通胀，以及接下来释放什么信号。 如果美联储继续强调通胀风险，尤其#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#SK海力士Q 3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The market consensus expectation for SK Hynix's Q3 is already extremely strong. According to FnGuide's summary, Q3 sales are estimated at 98.23 trillion KRW, operating profit at 76.96 trillion KRW, with an operating margin reaching a historic level of 78.4%. Citi is even more optimistic, forecasting operating profit of 81.3 trillion KRW, about 8% higher than market consensus, a year-on-year surge of 614%.
However, the forecast differences among brokerage firms are quite significant: SK Securities expects 79 trillion, Meritz Securities expects 80.1 trillion, while DS Investment Securities only expects 70.1 trillion, a gap of a full 10 trillion KRW. This divergence itself indicates a considerable visibility gap in HBM4's shipment pace in Q3.
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🔍 The boost from HBM4: Price is certain, shipment volume has a “dark side”
On the price side: HBM4 has very strong pricing power. NH
Therefore, the boost to Q3 profits from HBM4 is real, but its structure may be that “high prices compensate for some shipment volume shortfall,” rather than an overall volume-driven outperformance.The 4000 level is precarious! Gold enters a volatile bottom-seeking mode, with major central bank decisions this Friday setting the short-term direction
Last week, international gold experienced a severe plunge. Spot gold broke below the $4000 mark last Friday, hitting a three-month low of $3975. The weekly drop was nearly 4%, marking the largest single-week decline in four months, with bulls suffering heavy losses. After Monday's opening, gold prices continued to fluctuate around $4000, with market pessimism showing no signs of easing.
Many wonder: with tensions still high in the Middle East, why isn't gold's safe-haven attribute working? The core culprit is the soaring oil prices. Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities have raised concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supply, pushing Brent crude higher and igniting a new round of inflation expectations.
As inflation rises, the market immediately revised its expectations for central bank rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's easing is delayed, and there is even a possibility of rate hikes by year-end. The holding cost of the non-yielding asset gold has significantly increased, naturally leading to selling pressure on bulls.
Adding insult to injury, US tech stocks, especially AI-related, saw a sharp correction. Many investors received margin calls and had to sell their gold and silver holdings to cover positions, further depressing the entire precious metals sector. Silver and platinum also declined, with the whole sector weakening collectively.
The US Treasury market confirms this trend. Although short-term yields have slightly fallen, they remain firmly below 5%. The yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries has turned positive, indicating market confidence in the US economy and further limiting gold's rebound potential.
The market is quickly approaching a critical turning point: this week is a super central bank week, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and other major central banks announcing rate decisions, with the Fed meeting being the most crucial.
Currently, the market is almost certain the Fed will keep rates unchanged this time, but the trading floor has already priced in nearly an 80% chance of another rate hike in December. Recent inflation data has consistently exceeded expectations, and the consensus is that "high rates will be maintained longer."
The upcoming PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be released soon. If the PCE rises again, combined with high oil prices, expectations for a year-end rate hike will intensify, and gold prices will likely continue to decline, with the primary support level at the previous low of $3943.
Besides the Fed, the Bank of Japan's moves are also worth watching. Japan's inflation has again surpassed the 2% target, and the market is betting on a rate hike in December. Global liquidity tightening will continue to influence gold prices through exchange rates.
Although geopolitical tensions still support gold's bottom line—with the US frequently signaling possible military action against Iran, ongoing Strait of Hormuz incidents, and stalled Russia-Ukraine negotiations—the geopolitical bullish factors are only enough to provide a floor and cannot offset the bearish pressure from rate expectations.
In the medium to long term, global geopolitical conflicts, national fiscal deficits, and central banks' continued gold purchases mean gold still holds long-term allocation value. But in the short term, the market is entirely driven by real interest rates and the US dollar. As long as year-end rate hike expectations persist, gold's rebound space will remain limited.
In summary, after breaking below $4000, gold has officially entered a volatile bottom-seeking phase. Trading should avoid rushing to bottom-fish or blindly shorting. This week's Fed speeches and PCE inflation data are the watershed moments for the short-term market.
If inflation data is strong and the Fed signals hawkishness, gold will likely continue to test the $3943 support; if inflation eases and the Fed signals dovishness, gold may stabilize above $4000 and see a technical rebound.
Currently, market volatility is repeatedly amplified by oil prices, stock market liquidity, and geopolitical news. Traders must remain patient, strictly follow trading discipline, and wait for clear direction before acting. The super central bank week is the turning window for gold's short-term bulls and bears. Whether $4000 holds depends on this week's policy game.
This article reflects personal views for communication and reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market volatility risk is extremely high; capital preservation is paramount, and risks are borne by the individual.【Oil prices just surged to the highest point in the first half of the year, Qatar steps in, bulls back down again】
On Monday, US and Brent crude both opened about 1.2% lower, as the market started betting on a cooling of tensions in the Middle East. Latest reports show Qatari mediators have gone to Tehran to push negotiations, causing crude oil to retreat from highs; previously Brent crude $BZ once approached $117, and surged about 3% last Friday.
Clarify one situation: a slight drop in oil prices does not mean the supply crisis is resolved. Recently, Houthi forces attacked Saudi energy facilities, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain. The market worries whether crude oil can be transported normally afterward. Diplomatic news first suppresses risk premiums, but real supply recovery depends on whether negotiations and shipping make substantial progress.
Today's lower open looks more like traders taking some geopolitical premium off the table, not yet a trend reversal in oil prices. Next, watch two things: whether mediation yields results, and whether oil tanker passage and energy facilities continue to face attacks. As long as supply risks are not lifted, oil prices may continue to ride the roller coaster of "falling on peace talks, rising on attack rumors."Currently, the short-term inflow has disappeared, and mid-term funds continue to withdraw. The outlook remains bearish today.
BTC spot net outflow over 4 hours is $19.56 million, with contract net outflow at $257 million. Extending to 24 hours, spot net outflow is $64.86 million, and contract net outflow is $385 million. The 30-day contract net outflow has expanded to $7.71 billion. Short-term support is insufficient, and mid-term funds are still retreating.
ETH spot net outflow over 4 hours is $31.32 million, with contract net outflow at $192 million. Although the 24-hour spot shows a slight net inflow of $1.72 million, contracts still have a net outflow of $166 million, and the 30-day contract net outflow is $8.46 billion, indicating a structure weaker than BTC.
SOL spot net inflow over 24 hours is $8.86 million, while contracts have a net outflow of $24.01 million. The 30-day contract net outflow is $2 billion. There is some spot buying, but leveraged funds are unwilling to stay, limiting the sustainability of the rebound.
ZEC spot and contract net outflows over 24 hours are $3.4 million and $34.43 million, respectively. The 30-day contract net outflow is $1.04 billion. After a strong market phase, fund withdrawal is very evident.
Today, I remain bearish. BTC hovers below 80K, and the 15-minute fund replenishment is only considered as short-covering and low-level rebound chasing. As long as the 24-hour and 30-day funds do not simultaneously reverse, the trend reversal is not complete. BTC's rebound fails to drive contract fund inflows, while ETH, SOL, and ZEC continue to face downward pressure.$BTC is now at 80074, down 0.78% in 24 hours, with the total market cap down 4.24% in the same period. BTC dominance is 59.98%, just one step away from 60%. The external environment over the weekend is forcing risk reduction: gold prices fell below $4000, the risk of renewed conflict between the US and Iran is rising, and the Brazil stock ETF listed in Tokyo was halted due to heavy sell orders. The same situation is visible in perpetual contracts, with EWZ funding rate at -1.48%, the most negative in the market, indicating shorts are hedging Brazilian assets with contracts. In the crypto space, major coins barely moved, the bleeding is in altcoins: $Q down 25.93%, $COMP down 11.17%, turnover rates at 18% and 17%. Against the trend, $CAP rose 38.48%, turnover 46%, funding rate +0.07%, driven by paid leveraged longs. In the next 72 hours, BTC dominance will stand above 60%, with altcoins continuing to underperform. The watershed is BTC at 80000; if it holds, the decline will be limited to altcoins, but if it breaks, risk-off selling will hit BTC as well, causing the total market cap to fall faster.Retail and large traders, two tables.
BTC｜Long-short ratio 1.0665, long 51.61% / short 48.39%, large traders 1.6352, OKX 2.14; 4h -0.44%, 24h +0.04%, retail only biased long.
ETH｜0.9889, long 49.72% / short 50.28%, large traders 1.6954, OKX 2.45; 4h -0.79%, 24h unchanged.
CORE｜0.9724, long 49.30% / short 50.70%, OKX 2.48; 4h -1.47%, 24h -0.46%, the steepest drop. The reason: retail longs and shorts fight, large traders overwhelmingly on one side, BTC and ETH position ratios start at 1.6, OKX account ratios above 2.1. Divergence breeds wicks.Last week, the US stock market showed a clear divergence. The Dow Jones and small-cap stocks were rising, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were falling. On the surface, the market was digesting concerns about oil prices and AI financing, but in reality, it was reassessing two things: where the money is coming from and when returns will be realized for companies still making large capital expenditures; and how much of the existing operators' moat remains if SpaceX really enters wireless. For the whole week, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,623.68 points, the Nasdaq dropped 0.7% to 25,955.34 points, while the Dow Jones actually rose 0.4% to 52,215.16 points, marking its third consecutive week of gains. The Russell 2000 rose 2%. The equal-weighted S&P also outperformed the market-cap weighted index. Thursday was a watershed day, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.6% in a single day, the largest decline since June, as Meta's capital expenditure guidance amplified concerns about AI financing costs. Tech stocks stopped falling on Friday, with most chips rebounding, but the entire week still failed to turn positive. Oil prices were another main theme. Brent crude rose about 6% for the week, settling at $116.72 on Friday, reaching a high not seen in recent months amid ongoing Middle East supply concerns. The energy sector held up as a result, but pressure on consumption and costs began to be priced in. The communication services sector was hit by Friday's SpaceX news. Reports said SpaceX is negotiating to acquire about 80,000 cell tower sites in preparation to become a potential fourth nationwide operator. AT&T fell nearly 8%, T-Mobile dropped about 7.7%. Tower companies surged. This is already the second recent time operators have been hit due to SpaceX, as the market is shifting competition from a long-term story into current valuations. Among individual stocks, the most able toBTC is holding sideways around 80300, ETH fell 1.61% as the weakest, the real test has begun.
On Saturday, it briefly dropped below 80,000, hitting a more than one-month low. On the surface, it's weekend selling pressure, but in reality, no one dares to buy even after it bounced back above 80,000.
$BTC: sideways near 80359
Down 0.31% in 24h, high 81070, low 79220. In the last 4 hours, long positions liquidated 1.175 million, shorts only 10,000 — indicating the rebound is short covering, not genuine buying. The key is the 79220 support; if it doesn't hold 80,000, it's fake.
$ETH: the worst among the three coins
2328, down 1.61% in 24h, high 2373, low 2283. In the last 4 hours, long positions liquidated 2.658 million, shorts 35,000. If the 2283 low doesn't hold, next support is 2200.
$SOL: hanging by a thread at the 100 mark
100.91, down 0.48% in 24h, high 102.77, low 98.62. Less than 1 dollar away from 100, long positions liquidated 386,000 in the last 4 hours. If 100 doesn't hold, next target is 95.
In summary: after breaking below 80,000 over the weekend, the price returned, but 4-hour long positions liquidated 4.219 million, showing weak buying power. Don't try to bottom-fish if it doesn't rise; first watch if 79220 and 100 can hold. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, analyze this liquidation pain point chart
Look at BTC: current price 79817, the biggest pain point for longs is at 79764—only 53 dollars away from the current price, almost right underfoot! The pain point for shorts is at 81398, needing to rise 1580 dollars to trigger. This means if BTC dips slightly downward, it will step on the long liquidation minefield.
ETH is even more extreme: the long pain point is 2302, only 13 dollars (0.56%) away from the current price, while the short pain point at 2367 requires a 2.26% rise to reach. SOL is the same, with the long pain point at 99.95 right near the 100 mark.
Notice the pattern? The long pain points of all major coins are very close to the current price, while the short pain points are farther away. What does this indicate? The long leverage below is densely stacked, so the whales only need to lightly push down to trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations.
ZEC and NEAR are the most special—short pain points are the farthest away (over 4%), indicating that short positions are heavily stacked above these two coins, so a rebound is more likely to trigger short liquidations.
The conclusion is clear: in the short term, the cost of sweeping longs downward is much lower than pulling shorts upward. The whales will most likely first push down to trigger all these long liquidation mines underfoot, then pull back up.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 先把事实摆出来。周五布伦特收在116.72美元，单日涨3.14%，一周涨6%，四月以来最高，美油103.27美元。从10月2日的102.77算起，这个月涨了13.6%。这不是需求转好，是有人不敢把船开进霍尔木兹海峡：10月是今年海峡周边商船遇袭最密集的一个月，胡塞武装打了沙特的机场，阿美把宰赫兰总部的人撤了，美国把驻沙特的非必要外交人员撤走。撤馆不是新闻稿，撤馆一向是冲突升级的先行指标。 政治上这件事更好看。军事选项被摆到"选举之后"，可港口封锁和撤人现在就做了。为什么？因为白宫要的是选票里的汽油价格，不是中东的胜负。油价往上走，先输的是执政党。所以别盯打不打，盯的是通胀往下走这台阶谁给垫。今年进口价格同比已经8.1%，2022年7月以来最快——这个数字一出来，降息就不必谈了。 历史要分两种涨价来看。1973年禁运和1979年伊朗革命是真断供，油从3美元到12美元再到40美元，价格粘了十年，因为产能是真没了。1990年海湾战争和2008年那种是溢价：2008年7月布伦特摸到147.5美元的历史高点，半年不到跌回40美元以下。这次麻烦在缓冲太薄，OPEC+能立刻拿出来的闲置产能只剩27万#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The current Q3 GAAP EPS consensus is exactly in the $0.55–$0.56 range, with MarketBeat's figure at $0.5560, which rounds to the threshold itself. This means there is no need for a significant beat; just a slight exceedance of consensus is enough to trigger a "strictly above" condition.
Historical records provide support: in the past 8 quarters, HOOD has exceeded consensus EPS 5 times; in the most recent quarter (2026 Q2), the actual EPS was $0.62, about 41% above the $0.44 consensus. The magnitude and frequency of beats are statistically significant, not isolated events.
Recent revisions have also been positive. Zacks data shows a 0.95% upward revision in consensus EPS over the past 30 days, and the "most accurate estimates" are above the consensus average, indicating analysts tend to be optimistic before earnings.
The $0.56 threshold essentially represents the consensus itself, not the optimistic upper bound. Considering HOOD's historical tendency to beat consensus and the positive revisions before earnings, the probability of the actual EPS landing at $0.57 or above is higher than it being at $0.56 or below. Made over 40 million, but ended up with not even 5,000 left.
Big Brother Maji's address now has a balance of 5,357 USD. A few days ago, this number was 12.25 million. In four months, he rolled 56,000 up to 12.25 million, then kept getting liquidated, kept adding positions, kept being cleared out, and in the end, only had enough money left for a meal at Haidilao.
Even more absurdly, after being completely liquidated, just 25 minutes later, he opened a 25x ETH long position again. The position was small, only 50 ETH. But he still opened it.
In the same month, another so-called “100% win rate” whale won 14 out of 18 trades. In the last trade, he held on until BTC dropped below 100,000 and ETH crashed to 3,057, precisely hitting the liquidation line, losing 39.37 million USD in one go. All the previous “perfect accuracy” meant nothing in front of this one trade.
The cruelest truth in crypto is here: winning a hundred times only takes losing once for you to be wiped out.
All the “100% win rates” and “rolling position myths” you see are survivor bias. Those who didn’t roll successfully don’t post screenshots, and no one writes about them. Maji and this whale at least lived long enough to be reported by the whole network; more people’s stories ended at some 3 a.m.
Are you still rolling positions now? Share your thoughts in the comments.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH Just after breakfast, watching the market, the bulls have once again fallen before the macro dawn. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $549 million, with long positions accounting for $466 million (over 85%). BTC and ETH liquidations were $176 million and $161 million respectively. Leverage is the first to perish. BTC is currently at 80,400; this week, $11 billion in options expire, with the biggest pain point at 78,000. Sellers repeatedly broke through 82,000, 80,000 is the key defense; if lost, look to 77,000. Only recovering 82,000 can be considered stable. The liquidation map shows that breaking below 76,764 triggers $770 million in long liquidations, while breaking above 84,240 triggers $787 million in short liquidations. The price is trapped between two danger zones. ETH is currently at 2,357, with only EMA120 at 2,336 supporting it; below, the BOLL lower band at 2,299 is a hard defense line. 2,239 is a dense liquidation area; touching it will trigger $580 million in long liquidations. Above, 2,464 corresponds to $526 million in short liquidations. SOL is currently at 102; 100.35 is the previous low, and from 102.7 to 105.7 there is a dense liquidation zone, with short positions totaling $376 million. 100.35 is the true breakout point; above 105 triggers short covering, and 99.5 to 100.5 is short-term support. Macro factors are the real trigger; the Federal Reserve meeting is on the 27th to 28th, with GDP and PCE data landing on the 29th. The early morning rise may be reversed by the inflation data that night. Risk control keeps leverage within 5x, with risk not exceeding 1%. Keep a close eye on three closing prices: BTC at 80,000, ETH at 2,299, and SOL at 100.35. Preserving capital before macro events is more important than chasing rebounds. 📊 Contract capital flow reveals a key signal: short-term buyers are stepping in, but swing funds have yet to return.
🔻 $BTC: Short-term inflow, mid-term bearish. Net inflow peaks at $36.0436 million from 5 minutes to 1 hour, but net outflow is $629 million over 24 hours and $8.293 billion over 30 days. Short-term buying is attempting a counterattack, but pressure from large capital withdrawals remains.
🔻 $ETH: Rebound has funds, but trend remains under pressure. Net inflow from 5 to 30 minutes, turning to a net outflow of $70.2395 million at 1 hour, with $856 million net outflow over 24 hours and $8.737 billion over 30 days. Without sustained inflows, blindly chasing longs is not advisable for now.
🔻 $SOL: Four words—continuous bleeding. Net outflow of $95.5074 million over 24 hours and $2.085 billion over 30 days. Short-term funds fluctuate, but mid-to-long-term outflows are obvious. Watch rebound strength first; no rush to bottom-fish.
🟢 $ZEC: Relatively strong short-term. Net inflow of $10.0513 million in the last hour, $40.115 million over 24 hours, and $193 million over the past week. However, 15-day and 30-day periods still show net outflows. For now, this only indicates short-term improvement, not a confirmed trend reversal.
My judgment: Observe whether BTC and ETH rebounds can sustain, be cautious bottom-fishing SOL, and focus on whether ZEC’s capital inflow can continue. Short-term inflows do not equal trend reversals; don’t rush to open longs just because funds turn positive. Tesla's Bitcoin brought in $288M for this quarter Quick history: 17 2021 → Tesla bought $1.5B bitcoin, about 43K ฿ $BTC 17 2022 → sold about 75% of it, under $1B 1 2026 → still holds 11,509 BTC, currently valued at $962M These 11,509 coins previously lost about ~$386M. Today that's about 2.5 times. Q3 alone added $288M to Tesla's profit, while total profit dropped 43%. Now the painful part haha... about 31K ฿ $BTC Tesla sold in 2022 is now worth about $2.6B. I'm not judging, 2022 was very bad Brothers
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 118 million U, with 57,000 people forcibly liquidated, and long positions accounted for 68.4%. But looking at the time dimension separately, it's very interesting—
In the 1-hour and 4-hour liquidations, long positions accounted for over 90% (1-hour longs 30.62 million vs shorts 2.93 million), indicating that the recent drop mainly targeted the bulls. But extending to 12 hours and 24 hours, the short liquidation proportion rose from 9% to 32%, showing that the rebound in between also swept some shorts.
This is a typical back-and-forth pin action—first a drop to kill longs, then a rally to kill shorts, both sides get hit.
The largest single liquidation was still Binance ETH perpetual, a single 6.96 million U, with ETH remaining the hardest hit liquidation area. Binance accounted for 52.8% of the total network liquidations.
A 68% long liquidation ratio shows that bulls chasing highs and bottoms are still the main force. Once this leverage washout is mostly done, shorts will become crowded, and once stabilized, it will be ready fuel for a rebound.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC FACES THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS!
Only 9 days left before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
Previous election cycles have been marked by high Bitcoin volatility, but a correction is not guaranteed.
I am closely watching to see if $BTC follows historical trends or deviates from them.
Will this time be different?
#HOODQ3TradingGrowth Monday shows a stronger bottoming feeling: BTC hovers around 80,000, fear and greed index about 50. ETFs still had a net inflow of about 300 million for the week, but October's cumulative is negative — institutions are impulse buyers, not trend buyers. ETH's originally scheduled Hoodi upgrade for today has been postponed, slowing the scaling pace again; OCC finalizes stablecoin rules, which are a medium- to long-term positive. BNB is relatively resilient on the weekly chart, ZEC is approaching NU7. The 10/28 rate decision is almost fully priced in as no change, the short term looks more like waiting for macro factors rather than chasing shorts. Do you think 80,000 is a bottom support or a fragile platform before the rate decision?
$BTC $ETH $BNB #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, this OKX liquidation map contains a lot of information, let me break it down for you.
The current price is 80020, exactly stuck in the middle of the long-short liquidation zone.
Long position danger zone below: from 78800 to 79600, there is a dense cluster of high leverage bars, with 100x and 50x long positions particularly concentrated. The orange bar near 79239 is the most eye-catching. But note that the red cumulative long liquidation line near 80000 has dropped close to zero—this indicates that this round of decline has already washed out most of the high leverage long positions below 80000, so the "fuel" for further downward pressure is thinning.
Short position fuel above: from 81177 to 81576, the short liquidation intensity clearly increases, with the orange bar near 81576 being the highest on the entire chart, about 17 million. The green cumulative short liquidation line rises steeply starting from 80000, indicating a large accumulation of short positions above. If Bitcoin surges upward with volume and breaks 81500, this batch of short stop-losses will trigger a chain reaction, causing a strong rally.
Key judgment: the liquidation chips are asymmetrical—long positions below have already been washed out once, thinning the danger zone; short positions above are accumulating thicker and thicker. This means the marginal benefit of continuing to push down is decreasing, while the space for a rebound to trigger short covering is greater.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $ZEC To say something that might be a buzzkill: last week's BTC spot ETF weekly inflow of +300 million was basically supported solely by IBIT. Without it, the other funds combined had a net outflow of about 260 million. I broke down last week's five days by fund. IBIT had a net inflow of 566 million for the week, FBTC had an outflow of 117 million, ARKB had nearly 100 million outflow, and GBTC was bleeding as usual. Adding inflows and subtracting outflows, the weekly total was +301 million. What's even more striking is the rhythm. On Monday 10/19, IBIT alone had an inflow of 665 million, which is more than the entire week's total. In the following two days, it reversed itself, with IBIT having a combined outflow of over 360 million on 10/22 and 10/23. So the "positive" for the week was basically propped up by that Monday's stock. The price side matches this too. At the close on 10/21, it was still at 84,098; once the funds shifted direction, it steadily declined to around 80,025, with the 80,000 level repeatedly tested. My view is cautious: inflows dominated by a single player are fragile; if a big player hesitates, the weekly trend can easily reverse. Of course, IBIT might have another big inflow on Monday, in which case my worries would be unfounded. Also, data for a small fund on 10/23 hasn't come out yet, but its scale is small and won't change the big picture. To sum up: don't just look at the total weekly number; see who is buying. This week, I'll be watching IBIT's daily numbers closely, with 80,000 as a reference level. #ETF $BTC COMP surged to 25.03 on that hourly candle, but closed at only 21.26. The next hour touched 20.17, finally closing at 21.39. OKEx spot trading volume in these two hours accounted for about 78% of the nearly 24-hour total, with intense turnover concentrated in that rapid rise and fall period.
As of 8:06 AM, the price is around 21.07, down about 11.5% in 24 hours. My judgment is that the price will stay near 21 afterward, but the trading volume has not returned to the intensity of those two hours, and there is currently no evidence of sustained buying support.
If subsequent full hourly candles show increased volume when the price rises, the judgment needs to be updated; if it falls below 20.17 again, be more cautious not to mistake a brief rebound for a bottom.
$COMP "It's Monday 08:04 now. You wake up seeing +38.33% and think 'Only 38%, not much' — look at the other side: it only needs to rise 0.385% to break even."
$BTC 100x short, 80349.5 → 80041.5, +38.33%. The numbers add up.
Three things:
1. It's one of the thinnest full-position trades. The tolerance is 0.385%, tied for the lowest with ETH long (0.35%) and SOL short (0.387%). BTC's intraday volatility of 1%–2% is normal — your tolerance is only one-third of a single breath.
2. But it has the biggest impact. BTC is the benchmark for all positions — DOGE is its high beta, ETH follows it, SOL too. When it rebounds, your short positions get wiped out together. This isn't a small 38% position; it's the bottom of your entire short exposure.
3. The first thing today: SNDK. Now about 13 hours 26 minutes until the US stock market opens at 21:30, its tolerance is only 0.93%, a gap with no reaction window. It must be closed during the day — its deadline is on the calendar, not on the market.
The most important thing to remember: the six positions you ran best tonight all have leverage under 20; the six most painful ones are all above 50 — this BTC position is 100x with 0.385%, right at the worst end. $ETH $ZEC This week, tech giants' earnings reports are coming in clusters: Microsoft and Google after the market closes on Wednesday, Amazon after the market closes on Thursday. Ordinary people focus on whether the EPS beats expectations, but veterans focus on another figure—the capital expenditure guidance.
The underlying fuel for this entire AI rally is the nearly unlimited capex from these giants. As long as they keep ramping up building data centers and buying GPUs, the computing power and storage chains have stories to tell; once any of them start to ease up and pull back next year's capital expenditures, that will be the real turning point for this narrative, more important than any rise or fall of $BTC.
So for these earnings reports, don't just look at how much they earned, look at whether they dare to keep spending. Which one do you bet will hit the brakes first? Everyone is focused on $BTC and Nasdaq, but few are looking up at the yen.
The yen has depreciated again to around 156. This line is usually ignored, but it is the most hidden string in global liquidity—the carry trade of borrowing cheap yen to exchange for dollars to buy US stocks and crypto is huge. The global flash crash last August was triggered by the yen suddenly strengthening, forcing carry trades to unwind, which hit stocks, bonds, and crypto all at once.
Now the direction is reversed, and the yen is depreciating, which is not a problem for the moment. But if the Bank of Japan acts one day, or the yen reverses sharply, the sound of this string snapping will reach before any on-chain indicator. Coincidentally, the Bank of Japan meets this Friday. Traders, add this page to your dashboard.On Sunday night, the overall market was dozing off, but COMP put on a show by itself.
According to OKX spot data, COMP is currently at 21.01, down 11.7% in 24 hours, ranging from 20.17 to 25.03. I checked the hourly chart; at 1 PM (Eastern Time), the candlestick first surged to 25.03, then dropped back to just above 21 within the same hour, with trading volume dozens of times higher than usual hours. In short, it was a "spike up then down" long wick, and those who chased it probably had a bad experience.
At the same time, BTC, ETH, and SOL were only down about 1%, so this wasn’t driven by the overall market. I searched around and didn’t find any clear new announcements from the project team; several reports just said it was profit-taking. Some media mentioned it had a rally around October 20th, but my personal view is: a rally without news, the subsequent pullback doesn’t have much rationale.
Next, I’ll watch two things: whether it can hold around 20, and whether the trading volume returns to normal levels. A low-volume sideways move means digestion, but a high-volume break would be a different story.
Honestly, these single-coin spikes are the easiest to get caught up in. If you’re panicking, don’t act yet; wait and see clearly before making a move.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice This weekend's market seems stuck: $BTC has been trading in a narrow range around 80,000 all day, with the highest and lowest prices only about a thousand apart, and the volume is pitifully thin. Many people wonder why it’s not moving at all.
Here’s an explanation many overlook: This week is the monthly options expiration, and the max pain point is right around 80,000. The so-called max pain is the price level where the most option buyers expire worthless and sellers make the most profit. As expiration approaches, a large number of market makers’ hedging positions tend to pull the price toward this magnetic point.
So don’t mistake this "dead water" for a directional signal. It’s not bulls and bears battling; it’s the expiration structure acting like a magnet. The real direction will only become clear after the settlement passes and the magnet disappears. Where do you think it will go after the unlock?The rebound is just a "replenishment pulse," with mid-term funds still retreating
Today’s market saw a short-term capital inflow, but it looks more like short sellers covering positions and low-level rebound chasing pulses, not a trend reversal. Although BTC spot and futures show slight net inflows over 4 hours, looking at 24 hours, spot has a net outflow of 131 million, and futures a net outflow of 423 million, indicating the mid-term withdrawal pattern remains uncorrected.
ETH remains the weakest: both spot and futures have net outflows over 24 hours, with 30-day futures net outflow reaching 8.21 billion, showing no signs of bottoming or capital return. SOL experienced capital flight all day, with the rebound lacking support; ZEC had short-term inflows but 30-day futures still show a net outflow of 997 million, meaning current strength is just localized capital games.
Overall, the 4-hour level warming cannot offset the 24-hour and 30-day capital gaps. BTC’s rebound lacks momentum, while ETH, SOL, and ZEC face obvious pressure. Maintain a bearish bias today and avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
Data is for analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ SK Hynix just announced a special dividend of about $12 billion, and they’re releasing their earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday. The oversold rebound long position I hold in this memory stock just happens to be caught right at the crossroads of these two binary events.
Let me be clear upfront: this is a small bet on an oversold rebound, not an all-in bullish play on the memory cycle. After playing the game for so many years, my most valuable lesson is—when you enter, you must already know how you’re going to exit, rather than scrambling when the cards are revealed. I’ve already set my stop-loss and short positions before entering.
The special dividend sounds attractive, but it’s a different matter from the earnings guidance. What really determines the fate of this position is the numbers in Tuesday night’s report, not today’s cash bonus. Do you think this earnings report will ignite the rally or put out the fire?Checked the tax distribution of several meme projects; most are written vaguely, as vague as possible. This one fixes the numbers: 40% donated to Giggle Academy for education, 50% distributed to addresses holding over 100,000, 10% for buyback and burn, the team keeps nothing. The order is also deliberate: give out first, then distribute, and finally burn, placing themselves last. Whether it can go far, I don't know and won't guess, but at least the accounts can be calculated by yourself with a calculator, no need to listen to anyone's stories. Small holders don't meet the threshold and also know how much they fall short. $MAX Gold, many people still fantasize about hitting new highs this year or next year, but basically, barring any surprises, it won't happen. $XAU
In the pricing logic of gold, risk aversion is a short-term factor, while long-term factors are real interest rates and the monetary environment, as well as its inflation-hedging properties. Interest rate hikes will suppress gold in the short term, and after the mid-term elections, there will be a small rebound; gold is a long-term play, and it is estimated that a new round of upward trend will start with fluctuations in the second half of 2027, but the rise will not be like in 2025, when gold rose about 64% for the whole year, which is a once-in-a-decade event.$BTC
Last night BTC hit a low of 79,840. When I was watching the market, I specifically checked both OKX and Binance; Binance's low was 79,809. The drop below 80,000 is real, not some screenshot headline.
Interestingly, this week spot BTC ETF net inflows are still $305 million. Money is flowing in, but the price is going down, down 7.3% year-to-date, ranking at the bottom among major assets. I've seen this kind of divergence a few times; most of the time short-term sentiment outweighs capital flow, and when it reverses, it often happens suddenly.
The two most widely circulated sayings in the market now: Schiff says if it breaks below 80,000, it will head to 75,000; Cowen says the weekly close must be below 83,000 to confirm a false breakout. They are watching the same level but have completely opposite directions.
There's also liquidation data: above 84,240, nearly $787 million worth of short positions have been liquidated. If it really bounces up, that area will be quite lively.
My approach is not to guess who is right, keep my position light, and wait for the weekly close to give the answer. Last round I jumped in early once and got hit pretty badly.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？