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$BTC I placed this Bitcoin order today in advance the day before. A few days ago, I closed the short position I established last Thursday. At that time, the price fluctuated repeatedly around 79100 but never broke through, so I chose to close all short positions above 80300. After closing the position, I have been waiting for the right opportunity to short again. Initially, I considered setting the entry point at 80800, but this position is too close and lacks dense trapped chips; in contrast, 82800 is a range where trapped chips have accumulated over a long period of consolidation. According to past trends, the main force may not provide this entry window. After weighing the options, I finally chose to place the order at 81780. The reason I favor this price level should be clear to those familiar with my previous shares: Bitcoin's pullback and rebound relay positions often fall near the tail numbers seven hundred or eight hundred, unless encountering extreme highs or lows. The 84800 that appeared last Thursday is a typical example.Are Coinbase and Binance trading in opposite directions? What is the market trend?
From Feng Xiong's perspective, the focus is on the capital flows of USDC and USDT. Coinbase mainly trades with USDC pairs, while Binance mainly trades with USDT pairs.
┈➤ USDT funds no longer show obvious outflows
Meanwhile, the market cap of USDC has decreased several times recently. The outflow of USDT funds is relatively smaller. After October 20, USDT funds basically stopped flowing in. See Figure 1.
┈➤ OTC price rises: retail funds begin to enter
Although the USD to RMB exchange rate continues to decline, as shown in Figure 2.
However, the OTC price of USDT has been on an upward trend since October 23, as shown in Figure 3. Therefore, retail funds are starting to enter.
┈➤ No obvious signs of institutional fund inflows yet
However, the overall market cap of USDT still shows no growth trend. As shown in Figure 4, on October 27, USDT had a small amount of fund inflow, while USDC experienced outflows.
On October 28, USDC temporarily had a small inflow of funds, but the USDT market cap dropped significantly again.
Institutional funds may not have flowed in.
This recent rally is most likely due to Hynix's earnings report injecting confidence into the market.
But with retail funds starting to enter and no obvious signs of institutional inflows yet, the trend is likely still downward. Around the midterm elections and after, political reshuffling may also impact the macroeconomy. There may be further reasons for a decline ahead.Alphabet, the parent company of Google, will release its fiscal year 2026 third-quarter earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes this Wednesday. The market's key focus includes the actual growth level of Google Cloud, the scale of TPU external supply, and the 2027 capital expenditure plan it provides. The pressure on free cash flow is a major potential risk in this earnings report.
The current market consensus expects revenue for this quarter to reach $127.833 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%; net profit is estimated at $37.334 billion, a year-on-year growth of about 6.73%.
Several investment banks have simultaneously updated their forward-looking assessments: JPMorgan has raised its year-on-year growth forecast for Google Cloud revenue from 88% to 100%; Deutsche Bank believes the search business growth momentum is stable this quarter; HSBC predicts its operating profit margin could reach 44.5%, higher than the market average, and GAAP-based EBIT is expected to increase by 35% year-on-year#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $SKHYNIX Hynix's positive news has been realized, and $SNDK SanDisk still has a chance to rally before the earnings report! Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve is the key!
First, about Hynix, the earnings report has been released, and although the performance is good, the market has already priced in some expectations in advance, so there won't be much upside from now on. After SanDisk's earnings report comes out, it will start to decline.
Next, looking at SanDisk, the short-term trend remains strong, not far from the 1400 level, and since the earnings report hasn't been announced yet, the market will continue to trade based on storage demand and earnings expectations. My view is bullish; you can enter around 1370, targeting above 1400.
Finally, what really cannot be ignored is tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. The market has basically priced in no change in October, but what will truly influence the market direction is Waller's assessment of inflation, employment, and financial conditions, as well as whether he leaves clear room for another rate hike in December.
In summary, don't chase Hynix's rise, continue to enter long positions on SanDisk aiming above 1400, and control your position size before the Fed meeting to avoid giving back all your profits and missing the upcoming one-sided market!
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Gold and the Federal Reserve Congressional Session Operation Strategy
The root of this round of gold rebound is the breather opportunity brought by the decline in oil prices. WTI fell below $100, and the market's concern about energy pushing inflation and forcing rate hikes temporarily cooled down. Short sellers concentrated on taking profits, triggering the rise. This is only an emotional repair, not a strong bullish market actively driven by buyers.
The real shackles remain the US dollar and high interest rates.
The US dollar index rose above 102 last night, hitting a two-week high; US Treasury yields remain above 5%. Oil prices fell back, but the dollar and real interest rates did not weaken in sync. This $40 rebound inherently lacks momentum. Large funds remain cautious, all waiting for the Federal Reserve's direction at midnight.
At 2 a.m., the FOMC interest rate decision is basically a foregone conclusion to pause rate hikes, with a probability over 90%. The market's focus has never been whether to raise rates tonight, but the expectation of a rate hike in December—the current market pricing still shows over an 80% chance of a 25 basis point hike by year-end.
Operation Strategy
Price rebounds to the 4080-4090 range, target 4050-4030!
Price pulls back to the 4015-4025 range for long positions, target 4060-4080
Summary of tonight's market in one sentence: do not chase the rebound, wait for Powell to finish speaking. Short near 4085 if resistance appears, consider going long again if support emerges near 4020. The fluctuations in between are just noise. FOMC NEXT
The market is expecting rates to stay unchanged, and I'm leaning the same way.
But the rate decision isn't what I'm watching.
It's what comes next.
More cuts ahead? Bullish for crypto.
Hikes back on the table? Things could get ugly.
All eyes on Conference
#FOMC$AKE This wild coin started acting up again in the middle of the night!
It had been steadily dropping from around 0.04 down to about 0.019, and it seemed like there was hardly any movement left. Then suddenly, in the early morning, it pulled several big bullish candles in a row, shooting straight up to around 0.02224.
Fortunately, I had already positioned long near 0.0196 with my brothers ahead of this move, and the current unrealized profit has nearly tripled, with the position still open.
Why dare to go long at such a low level? Mainly because on the 4-hour chart, after continuous declines, the price repeatedly tested around 0.019 without making new lows, and the KDJ indicator had entered the oversold zone. There was a short-term rebound opportunity, so I took a position early.
Now, on the 15-minute chart, volume is continuously increasing with MACD bullish momentum clearly strengthening, but KDJ has already reached a high level, so chasing the rally short-term carries risk.
Next, the key is to watch if 0.02224 can be broken and held. If so, there’s a chance to test around 0.023. If it pulls back after the surge, first watch the support near 0.0215.
This kind of wild coin rallies fiercely and crashes just as hard. If you have profits, protect them first—don’t let your unrealized gains slip away again. $BTC $ZEC #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $DOS Signal — LONG 🟢
Entry: 0.3330–0.3370
TP1: 0.3420
TP2: 0.3480
TP3: 0.3550
Stop Loss: 0.3260
Bias: Bullish 📈
Support: 0.3240
Resistance: 0.3399
Note: Price has risen strongly on the 1H chart and is trading above the EMAs.
Resistance near 0.3399 may cause a pullback, so avoid chasing the price.
Wait for a breakout or a retest before entering. This is a chart-based setup, not a guaranteed result.
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 [On the Eve of FOMC] Breath-holding at 1:20 AM: The Battle to Defend the 80,000 Level and Pre-IPO Gambles
At 1:20 AM, on the eve of the FOMC, the market is holding its breath in defense.
$ANTHROPICUSDT (188.64, -0.72%): Binance Pre-IPO perpetual contract, betting on Anthropic's listing valuation. Price differences with some platforms stem from assumptions about estimated share capital; currently dominated by expectation-driven speculation, so spot market pricing logic is not appropriate.
$BTCUSDT (80,491.1, -0.48%): Stuck below the 50-day moving average at 81,831, an early session surge to 81,687 was quickly given back, showing solid selling pressure. The FOMC is expected to maintain rates, but if the statement signals a December rate hike, losing the 80,000 level will open room for a retracement.
$ETHUSDT (2,332.07, -0.74%): Fell about 13.6% in October, dragged down by ETF outflows. The 2,300 level is a key zone of on-chain cost and the 200-day EMA; holding here means stabilization, losing it points to 2,200; NUPL near zero indicates fragile breakeven.
Summary: The pre-FOMC decline is a defensive move amid liquidity tightening, not a directional choice. ANTHROPIC offers a low-correlation narrative exposure, but Pre-IPO volatility is high. The real signal lies in the post-meeting statement wording, not the rate figures.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #SK海力士Q3 revenue surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time
『Order Book Strength Ranking』
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$AKE Cost differences mainly reflect large buy orders. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.16%/0.18%, for 100,000 scale is 1.62%/0.74%. The asymmetry is an execution issue, not a price movement signal.
$BTW Large sell order costs decreased, buy order costs increased. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale buy/sell changed from 0.53%/0.66% to 0.74%/0.59%. The rising side has reduced volume, the falling side can be maintained.
$IRYS After enlarging the order, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.12%/0.11%, for 100,000 scale is 0.67%/0.54%. Large orders are first estimated at the 100,000 scale cost, not the 10,000 scale.Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$APR top accounts are more bullish, positions still lean bearish. The proportion of long accounts increased by 2.71 percentage points, the proportion of long positions increased by 1.13 percentage points, still at 43.3%. More people are on one side, but positions still lean the other way; do not directly translate account bias as position dominance.#Oil prices have risen above $115 again, but I'm not in a hurry to ease Middle East risks
At 19:15 Beijing time on October 28, Brent crude was quoted at $115.19, up about 1.2%. The Houthi forces claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, which Saudi Arabia had not yet confirmed at the time. This back-and-forth makes me feel that the market's reaction to easing expectations in the past two days has outpaced the actual improvement in supply. I will first verify refinery production and export shipment status. If there is no sustained production loss, the sentiment-driven price increase may be retraced; once production and transportation are both obstructed, the cost pressure faced by companies will be difficult to relieve quickly.BTC moved only 0.13% in 24 hours, while PEPE jumped 7.32%🐸 Two different trends on the same market.
The market is all waiting for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a general expectation of no change. What everyone is really watching for is whether the post-decision statement hints at another rate hike in December. As a result, mainstream coins showed little volatility before the decision: BTC 80645, 24h -0.13%, amplitude 1.76%; ETH 2335.71, 24h -0.78%. It looks like the entire market has been put on pause.
But on the other hand, PEPE-USDT 24h +7.32%, amplitude 13.39%, jumping quite lively. My understanding is that before major events, funds are reluctant to open large positions in mainstream coins, so they go to small coins and memes for fun. So don’t directly interpret “waiting for the decision” as “the whole market is paused”; a quiet market and quiet sectors are two different things.
Personally, I treat mainstream coins as the background, and memes only as a sentiment thermometer, not chasing after them. Are you now focusing on how BTC will react after the decision, or on the independent trend of small coins like PEPE?$INIT This wave is a rebound market that emerged after a long period of bottom consolidation. The bottom repeatedly grinds, clearing out trapped floating chips above; after funds reach consensus, a rally is launched, strategically positioning for 10x long positions with a floating profit of 196.00%.
The characteristic of small-cap coins is that the bottom grinds you down, but once it rallies, the explosive power is good. However, when funds withdraw, the decline is also rapid. Even with considerable floating profits, risk control cannot be relaxed.
This rebound has already opened up space and is approaching the upper resistance zone, where a pullback and correction may occur at any time. Take profits in batches, maintain good defense points, and do not cling to the battle. $SNDK $IRYS #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Bitcoin's realized volatility over the past month has dropped to about 25%, falling back to the summer 2023 level; since August, realized losses triggered by each round of decline have also continued to narrow, indicating reduced selling pressure. Glassnode believes Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound state characterized by weak demand and limited selling pressure, with the market focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28. If the daily close rises back above $85,000, it could be an initial signal for further rebound; if it falls below the average cost of active investors at about $77,900, attention should be paid to the short-term holder cost support near $75,800.
Market data shows Bitcoin has fallen below the $84,000 to $85,000 range, which has blocked price increases four times this year. Inflows into the US spot Bitcoin ETF have clearly cooled, with net inflows of only about $67 million in the past two weeks; major buy orders on Binance's spot order book have also shifted down to $78,000 to $79,000, totaling about $42 million. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH A certain whale bought 40 million, should retail investors follow the rush??
ETH rebounded from 2289 to 2369.26, now the price has fallen back to 2354.41, showing obvious weakness after the surge. More interestingly, news came that a certain whale bought about 42.3 million USD worth of crypto assets, including 14,600 ETH. The news is quite lively, but the candlestick chart did not immediately show a strong breakout signal.
A reminder: a whale buying spot does not mean you can easily win by trading contracts. We may not know how long they can hold or at what cost, so don't rush to follow just because a big player is buying up.
In terms of operation, around 2350 is a short-term observation point; if it breaks down, watch 2330, and further down to 2289; the resistance zone is between 2365—2370, only if it effectively holds above 2369 is there more reason to be bullish. If the rebound is weak, you can consider light shorting opportunities, with above 2380 as a risk defense reference.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 Around eighty thousand dollars, some see a cliff, others see a bottom consolidation. @梁老表's stance on this is very clear: he tends to believe that Bitcoin is repeatedly grinding in the bottom area, rather than waiting for a drop that conveniently allows everyone to comfortably get in. But he immediately draws a line—this bullish bias is mainly directed at spot holders and is by no means a basis for full-leveraged positions. What he disagrees with most is treating the $74,000 to $76,000 range as a guaranteed buy point that, once caught, will directly take off. In his analysis, the market may have already bottomed around $79,000; if a strong enough shock occurs, it could directly break through those commonly watched levels. He does not believe mainstream expectations are always precisely met, but he also acknowledges that there are no absolutes in financial markets. First, looking at $BTC, he interprets the current market as being in a range between $80,000 and $85,000, emphasizing that daily closing prices are more important than intraday wicks. The price repeatedly probes downward and then recovers, which he sees as insufficient to confirm a complete breakdown of the range. Even if it retests just above $79,000, one should not only look at how much it dropped at a moment but also whether the low continues to extend and if it can subsequently stabilize again. This forms his core dividing line: if the key low near $79,000 holds and does not continue to make lower lows, he still leans toward viewing it as a consolidation bottom; if the low is effectively broken, the original defense logic needs to be reexamined. Translating "possibly bottoming" directly as "won't fall further" precisely removes his conditional judgment. The short term is another matter. 老表 reviewed the previous day's convergence Set your alarm for $BTC tonight, don’t sleep too deeply!!!
I’m not trying to scare you!
FOMC interest rate decision at 2 AM on October 29
About 90% of the market expects 3.75%–4.00% unchanged
The key is not the result, but whether Powell stays tough!
If he hints at a possible rate hike in December
Combined with the November 3 midterm elections approaching, sentiment will immediately turn cautious.
After a false weekly breakout at 84400, it has been falling all the way
Only a solid hold means the correction is over and the trend restarts
Failing to hold is a bull trap.
The support zone at 79000–79500 has been tested multiple times and is effective; watch if tonight brings a fake break below and then a recovery
Buying support is not weak, short-term longs can watch but don’t get overexcited.
Funding rates are still high
This is the core pressure on the rebound; without funding rate easing, any rise is hollow, don’t chase highs.
Trading reference: watch resistance at 81800-82800 above
Support at 79000–79500 below $ETH $ZEC
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC short near current price 80600, target around 79000-78500
$ETH short near current price 2335, target around 2280-2250
Forecast that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.75%—4.00% in the October meeting, in line with previous market expectations.
Structurally, the short-term bearish structure has not been broken. This rebound is mostly short covering and sentiment recovery driven by the repair of US tech stocks, but spot volume has not expanded correspondingly, representing a typical low-volume rebound.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
Will SanDisk's storage business continue its high growth?
Will SanDisk's earnings report this quarter exceed expectations?
I think it will. Here are the reasons:
1. AI inference storage demand remains hot (the biggest positive)
Cloud providers' AI servers have strong demand for enterprise-grade SSDs and HBF high-bandwidth flash; NBM long-term locked-price orders continue to increase, with long-term contracts locking in revenue, enhancing earnings stability.
2. NAND prices remain strong, ASP does not fall
Supply and demand remain tight, flash memory prices are stable or even rising, directly boosting gross margins, which is the core source of its profit surge.
3. Product structure upgrade
The proportion of high-profit data center business continues to rise, Stargate QLC large-capacity drives are ramping up smoothly, the higher the proportion of high-margin products, the stronger the profitability.
4. Surprising increase in buybacks
Continuing to expand the stock buyback amount, large buybacks are a direct shareholder return benefit, easily attracting capital.
5. Optimistic guidance for next quarter
Management's revenue and gross margin guidance is higher than market consensus, dispelling concerns about the peak of the price increase cycle.
In summary, I choose Yes
@OKX中文 @OKX星球
#OKX美股财报季$BTC has again touched above 81,000. On the surface, it looks like a recovery, but in reality, it has already approached the upper edge of the 24-hour range. Before the FOMC decision lands, chasing the last leg has too low a cost-performance ratio 😐. $ETH and $SOL gains are temporarily ahead of BTC, indicating that funds haven't withdrawn in an orderly manner; however, all three coins turning green simultaneously is only a short-term correction, so don't rush to call a reversal 🙂.
I prefer to wait for confirmation and not prematurely bet on "rate pause = bullish." The statement's tone on inflation and the subsequent path is the real variable: if hawkish, the dollar and US Treasury yields will rise again, and BTC might be pushed back into the range; if moderate and the price holds the upper edge, then it looks like a buying relay 📈.
Focus less on specific levels: around 81,300 is the 24h high; if volume supports a stable hold and the pullback doesn't break it, the recovery counts; around 79,500 is the range low; if it breaks and closes below, this move looks more like a rebound and signals weakness ⚠️. Don't chase longs at the upper edge, and don't treat lower shadows as bottoms; wait for a breakout and then a pullback, and control risk if it fails. The key is not how many points it rises, but whether it can stay above the breakout level after the news lands 🧐. #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 $BCH Damn it! This BCH rally is inexplicable, purely technical analysis shows it's a pump-and-dump by manipulators. I shorted directly at 284.31, don't ask why, the candlestick shows bearish divergence with shrinking volume, clearly a shakeout is coming. Set stop loss at 286.5, don't be greedy, first target is 278, if broken then look at 272. This kind of rise without any news support, following smart money is always right. This move is solid, if you want to follow, lay in ambush with tokens below, don't chase the high. ⚠️ The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice, cryptocurrency is highly volatile, please make decisions cautiously, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
📊Crypto Market Update: Exercise Caution Before the Fed Decision!!!
$BTC climbs above $81,000 (+1.6%), but flat open interest shows lack of confidence. $82,000 remains a key resistance level; a hawkish Fed could trigger a pullback
$ETH faces $88.58 million spot ETF outflows. $2,300 is a critical support; a return to $2,350 could signal recovery
$PEPE attracts whale attention, but high RSI and multiple rejections near $0.000005 indicate strong resistance
⚠️ Stay cautious and watch key price levels Brothers, there's a big event this week you must remember: on Friday, nearly $11.7 billion worth of BTC and ETH options will expire simultaneously.
Let me briefly explain what the "max pain" point means: it's the price at which the most retail traders lose money and market makers earn the most. This time, BTC's max pain is at 78,000, and Ethereum is stuck at 2,500.
The market has been oscillating back and forth recently, with neither bulls nor bears gaining the upper hand. But when this huge options expiry hits, the market is very likely to be forcibly pulled in a direction. Market makers, aiming for their profits, will push the price toward the max pain point before settlement.
If BTC is far from 78,000, it will be easily tugged back and forth, triggering stop losses wildly on both sides; if it hovers near that level, then for the rest of the week, the price will most likely grind back and forth around that point.
On such a big expiry day, sudden sharp moves are common—one moment it surges, the next it crashes back. Don't open leverage too high; don't blindly bet on a one-sided move. Let's wait for the expiry to settle before we look for the real direction. $ETH $SOL
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
Tonight's Federal Reserve focus is not on the interest rate, but on whether to raise it in December. The result will be announced at 2 AM, with no dot plot. The current rate is 3.75%-4.00%, and the market is 90% betting on no change. I also think there will be no hike, but the tone is unlikely to turn dovish.
The real market mover is Powell at 2:30. If it's a “hawkish pause” (maintaining + emphasizing inflation), the dollar and US bonds will strengthen.
$BTC targets 79,000, $ETH targets 2,260, $SOL targets 95. If rate hike concerns are downplayed, BTC will hold above 81,700 and push towards 82,700-84,600, ETH targets 2,420, SOL targets 108.
Most likely, there will be a spike first followed by a re-pricing. Don't heavily bet on direction before the announcement; wait for the final outcome!$XAU 📋 **【FOMC October】｜XAU 4049.8 (OKX 23:54 real-time)｜Direction: Short (maintained)**
In the past 2 hours, 4038~4056 only 14 points of suffocating sideways movement—exactly like the 7-point sideways movement 24 minutes before the 9/17 decision, the sweep spike will most likely be triggered between 01:55–02:00. The table below budgets the sweep position at **4080**
``
Entry: 4080 (placed at 01:52, waiting for the sweep spike above the pool to execute between 01:55-02:00)
Take Profit ①: 4021 (59 points, shallow pool 4038−17 premium)
Take Profit ②: 3975 (105 points, deep pool 4000.5−25 premium)
Abandon: If it surges above 4070 before 01:55 without falling back (unlock position too deep); directly break 4038 with a real body → switch to chasing shorts
```
Wash is super hawkish (3 dissenting votes/statement retains "further increase") + 15m **real body** closes below 4038 → pull back to 4035~4038 short, stop loss at 4046 (break K extreme +8), target 4021→3975. Shadow line penetration does not count.
Three reading switches tonight:
- **3 dissenting votes** (Harker/Logan/Kashkari) = hawkish, prepare for short branch
- Statement retains "further increase/in appropriate pace" = hawkish, hold position for deep pool
- Wash says "look at trend, not single points/policy has lag" (Evercore’s neutral wording forecast) = as expected, exit once the first pool at 4021 executes, don’t wait for the long tail #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $XAU is trading near $4,040 after a month-long slide from $4,315, with price now bouncing inside a 4H demand zone around $3,940-4,030. Sellers defended the $4,150-4,225 supply block repeatedly before the breakdown through $4,075, and the $3,975 low has held so far. Bias stays neutral to mildly bearish below $4,075, where a reclaim would target $4,150, while a loss of $3,975 would expose the zone floor near $3,940. Not financial advice, just reading the chart.
#RobinhoodQ3ProfitFalls Sharing my views on the upcoming Fed rate hike expectations combined with the current market sentiment and my personal thoughts
$BTC $ETH are currently positioned around 80,000+ and 2,330 respectively. In the past few days, they've been grinding at the bottom, getting pushed down then pulled back up. The main institutional players give traders a sense of bottom building. Today at noon, BTC and ETH surged to 81,700 and 2,387, touched the previous highs, then consolidated for a while before being pushed down again in the evening, and are now consolidating at low levels. At this stage, I am bullish, but there is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a solid bottom forming. Tonight's rate hike expectation should remain unchanged. The main institutions might use this time to spike downwards; if the lows hold, I will decisively go long. If it breaks down and hits new lows, then quickly recovers, I will also actively go long. If it goes straight up, I will mainly focus on shorting at highs. Experts are making profits by trading back and forth #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 On the eve of the Federal Reserve decision: Whales are selling, ETFs are buying, who got it wrong?
In the 24 hours before the FOMC decision, Bitcoin whales sold about 8,162 BTC, worth $664 million, significantly reducing their holdings. But at the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $176 million on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of accumulation.
1. What changed? Large holders reduced exposure before the decision, while ETF funds were buying against the trend. BTC briefly fell below 80,000, then recovered, with no one-sided market movement.
2. Why is this worth noting? The market is almost unanimously pricing in a "pause in rate hikes" (about 92% probability). The real disagreement is not about the rate itself, but whether the December rate hike expectations will be reinforced by Waller's wording. Whales are selling the risk of a "hawkish pause," while ETFs are buying the possibility that "the bad news is fully priced in." Both sides are preparing differently for the same event.
3. Which observation is more supported? Currently, it looks more like pre-event position rebalancing rather than directional betting. Short-term options put/call skew has compressed from nearly 10% to less than 1%, indicating cooling demand for downside protection, but the long-term curve remains bearish.
What to watch next is not the rate numbers themselves, but whether the phrase "timely return to target" in the statement is revised, and Waller's default stance on the December rate hike. If the "pause" is interpreted by the market as a "tightening intermission," will the selling pressure absorbed at the 80,000 level become the starting point for the next round of selling after the decision? Feel free to discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH PEPE surged 14% in a single day, with Sun Ge suspected to have unrealized gains close to ten million dollars!
Since October 17, on-chain data shows that related addresses have cumulatively transferred about $48.76 million worth of $PEPE. Based on disclosed cost, the current unrealized gains are close to ten million dollars. These tokens account for about 2.86% of the total supply, and related statistics list this as one of the largest individual holders on-chain.
However, the movement of funds in addresses does not confirm individual accumulation, nor can it directly prove the existence of insider information. Whether it is personal investment or fund reorganization remains undetermined.
What truly deserves attention is the ETF expectation behind PEPE.
Recently, market hotspots have shifted from AI to privacy sectors, then to tokenized stocks, causing some fatigue among investors. If Meme coins really open the door to ETFs, traditional funds might gain a new channel for participation. Well-known established Meme coins like $PEPE could have the chance to become the market focus again.
Once ETF expectations continue to ferment, the Meme sector may usher in a new speculation cycle. But application, review, and final approval are three different matters; expectations should not be taken directly as results.
My approach is to keep monitoring PEPE’s on-chain fund movements and ETF progress, and observe opportunities during pullbacks without blindly chasing the rise. After all, what Sun Ge bought is just a clue, not a direct buy signal.
If the ETF really launches, do you think PEPE still has room to double?
#10月FOMC利率決議即將公布 Sisters! Is this really a bull market celebration?
I see it more like a sugar-coated bomb served by the market!
Wrapped outside with the sweetness of rising prices, but inside hides a risk that could suddenly explode at midnight!
Mainstream coins rise, altcoins follow the surge, the screen is full of prosperity, but the more everyone is immersed in optimism, the colder my back feels!
$ETH has already surged to around 2371, reaching a high of 2387.28, the 15-minute moving average is upward, and MACD has clearly strengthened, short-term bulls do have the upper hand.
But sisters, don’t forget, at 2 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced!
The market is rising in advance, trading not only the current situation but also expectations of the policy outcome.
The market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but what’s more worth watching are the subsequent policy signals: inflation pressure remains, and the market is also paying attention to the possibility of further rate hikes in December.
If Powell’s statement is tougher than the market expects, this wave of early optimism could quickly cool down.
Keep a close eye on the $ETH resistance zone between 2380 and 2390.
Although the price is strong now, once it hits resistance and with the emotional reversal after the news release, the risk of a pullback cannot be ignored.
Sisters, when the sugar coating is sweetest, that’s often when people let their guard down the most!
I’m not chasing this hype; I’ll wait for the news at midnight and let the market give the answer itself.
$BTC
$BTC
#OctoberFOMCInterestRateDecisionComing $ETH $ETH Still the same old question—can gold be bought? Today, the viewpoint given by a JPMorgan executive basically aligns with my previous judgment.
The logic for a gold bull market has not disappeared, but under a high interest rate environment, the bottom is not yet clearly defined. As mentioned earlier, combining macro and market conditions, currently the hawkish stance in October is paused, the probability of a rate hike in December has increased, and gold remains suppressed under high interest rates.
From the market perspective, there has been a short-term rebound near 4,000, and the daily rebound looks quite good with slightly stronger momentum, but the bottom cannot be 100% confirmed yet.
On the macro side, we look forward to a US-Iran breakthrough in November → Brent price returning below $95 → future inflation pressure easing → lower probability of a rate hike in December. The core factor is energy prices and US-Iran relations. Once Brent returns below $95, even if there is a rate hike in December, it will most likely be a dovish hike.
Therefore, before the December policy meeting, if energy risks are resolved and gold holds the 3,950 low, the bottom will be clear. If it breaks below $3,950 during this period, we will still need to wait for confirmation signals of the bottom.
As for whether to buy and how to buy, it was mentioned earlier, you can refer to that! #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Latest Long and Short Positions Duel
Brother Maji currently holds only 82 $ETH long positions, valued at about $193,000, with 25x full margin, opened at $2320, liquidation price at $2310... but the market showed no mercy and liquidated it. $CORE can persistently take the opposite side like this, definitely making huge profits.
On the contrary, the short army leader's largest position is a $ETH short, holding about 26,900 ETH, valued at approximately $63.37 million, using 25x leverage, with an average opening price of about $2455, currently floating profit of about $2.8 million, accounting for over 60% of the leader's total floating profit. This ETH short uses a full margin mode, with a liquidation price of about $3393.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
Currently, market inflation data is not particularly good. The market consensus is that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this time, but the core risks have not been eliminated.
The future path of Federal Reserve interest rates is likely to maintain rates tonight, but may enter a rate hike cycle in the future. Beware of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
Geopolitical risks should not be underestimated. Around the midterm elections, whether the military conflict between the US and Iran escalates further remains a tail risk that cannot be ignored.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $HYPE
Bloomberg reported that someone used Hyperliquid's crude oil perpetual contracts to scam, placing orders stacked up to $170 million, but in the end only pocketed $119,000.
Many people's first reaction to this number is that it's weak. I actually think the opposite—fake orders of $170 million only scammed this little, which shows the market depth is stronger than outsiders think. If liquidity were really poor, these orders would have already pierced the price; there wouldn't be this much margin.
I've personally had my orders eaten on thin markets, so I know well that it looks tempting but getting bitten once is just feeding the other side.
HYPE is currently just above 80, down only 0.6% in 24 hours; the market has voted with its feet, so this is at most just noise. What really needs attention is never the scam itself, but who is hoarding positions behind this unpopular crude oil contract—
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #Зростання Google Cloud business by 82%, how are AI investments paying off? Google Cloud +82%, and tomorrow Alphabet reports. One question: will the billions in AI pay off? So far, yes $SNDK
SK Hynix's Q3 revenue surpassed 100 trillion KRW for the first time, and its stock price surged 12% straight, with market cap visibly approaching $1.2 trillion.
This storage boom is real money and prosperity, not just hype. I glanced at OKX's SNDK contract, now at 1382, up 6% in 24 hours, with a high of 1392.8. Samsung and Micron are in the same boat; HBM capacity is being fully consumed by AI servers.
Some say the storage cycle has peaked and it's time to exit. I tend to think not so soon—this demand cycle is fundamentally different from past mobile cycles. Of course, I haven't timed cycles well before; last time I was early on storage by half a year and got slapped hard.
So I won't try to guess the top and short now; going with the trend is much more comfortable than trying to pick a top against it.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Eve of the decision: BTC long and short both hit, holding 80,000; ETH whale's 2180 lifeline; PEPE funding rate turns positive but faces strong resistance
Before the Fed decision, the market is in a tug-of-war, and position structures have been revealed
$BTC liquidations are done, direction not yet chosen
24-hour liquidations totaled 34.63 million, 78% long positions. Whale transfers to exchanges average dropped from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion, large holders are not rushing to sell. 80,000 is a psychological boundary, with selling pressure above 81,000 and buying support below 79,300; likely to continue oscillating before the decision
$ETH 214 million whale defense line, only 6% space left
A whale holding $214 million long positions has a liquidation price near 2180 after adding margin, just 6% from the current price. Meanwhile, ETH ETF weekly outflows reached $225 million, losing buying power. If 2180 breaks, forced liquidations will amplify the downside.
$PEPE Sun Yuchen's card, 0.00000521 hard resistance
PEPE is around 0.00000494, up over 15% this week. Sun Yuchen's related wallet holds about 2.82% of supply, fueling sentiment. Funding rate turned positive, longs start paying fees. RSI at 64 is not overbought, but 0.00000521 is a hard resistance; only a breakout can open space.
Summary: BTC watching 80,000 defense, ETH eyes 2180 whale line, PEPE looks to see if 0.00000521 can break out with volume
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Conclusion first: SK Hynix Q3 revenue was 104.6 trillion KRW, operating profit 83.3 trillion KRW, operating margin 80%, and the stock closed at 1,487,000 KRW on 10-28 (+10.9%). HBM/DRAM sales have been secured through 2029 (Reuters/CNBC/TrendForce).
But the capital flow on OKX is even more worth watching:
$SKHY perpetual contracts traded 1.28 million SKHY in 24 hours, about 210 million USD; the tokenized spot XSKHY-USDT only traded 3.45 million USD. Perpetuals are 61 times the spot volume, with all the money crowded on the leverage side.
Open interest is 36.68 million USD, with a 24-hour turnover of 5.7 times. However, the funding rate has been zero for the last three settlements, and the premium is almost zero—indicating this rally is not driven by longs squeezing but by stock buying.
The risk lies in leverage: CSOP's SK Hynix 2x leveraged product $CSOPSKHYNIX2L rose 24.4%, exactly double the stock's gain. Layering OKX's 50x perpetuals on top of a 2x product could push the notional exposure to the 100x level.
My discipline: For earnings-driven rallies like this, either use spot semantics or small position perpetuals without leverage. Will you chase with perpetuals or wait for a pullback to enter? $SKHY #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
Later today is the FOMC meeting, with roughly three possible scenarios:
① No rate hike, but a hawkish tone: for example, emphasizing that hikes may still come later, BTC and ETH might rise first then fall back.
② No rate hike, with a more dovish tone than expected: easing concerns about future hikes, which is more favorable for a rebound.
③ Unexpected rate hike: exceeding mainstream market expectations, putting greater short-term downward pressure on BTC and ETH.
The rate decision will be announced at 2 AM, followed by the press conference at 2:30 AM. Experts on Douyin advise not to see “no rate hike” as purely positive, as the rest of the statement is yet to be delivered. $WLD forcibly dumped 35 million $WLD tokens into the exchange over two days.
The lower edge of the box was directly smashed through, and there isn't even a decent support order visible below the market.
Whales are rushing to offload their holdings on the market, acting very decisively.
Anyone stubbornly trying to catch the falling knife at this level is simply handing over liquidity exit to others.
#WLD
$WLD
👇Morning market lacks energy: prices are flat, positions are just shifting seats (￣▽￣)
The early session feels like a breakfast stall that hasn't fired up: BTC slipped below 80000, ETH and SOL dropped over 1%, the three major cryptos all look "half asleep." But looking at cold storage data, the mood is different — the whole network's long-short ratio is 50.03% to 49.97%, almost perfectly balanced; wholesale numbers are 2.36, with two measures at 2.22 and 2.25, and the position measure at 1.95 still leans bullish. The 1-hour positions haven't collectively withdrawn either: BTC +0.10% slightly positive, ETH -0.05%, SOL -0.16%, ZEC -0.41%. It looks more like short-term traders are holding back, waiting for tonight's menu: durable goods orders, confidence data, plus the FOMC in the next two days. ZEC bucked the trend and closed up, becoming the only strong performer (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Prices may be weak, but positions aren't. No chasing shorts, half positions bullish, no full chasing. First, have breakfast, let the market speak for itself ╮(╯▽╰)╭
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 美联储马上公布本月利率决议，目前市场预期维持4.00%不变，跟上次一样，大概率不会加息，也不会降息。 但有一点得注意，美联储这次暂停加息，不代表后面就不会继续加息了。通胀压力还在，后续货币政策能不能放松，现在还不好说。 我个人对今晚币圈的看法是中性偏空，尤其要防一手冲高回落。 如果公布的结果符合预期，行情未必会有太大反应，重点还是后面鲍威尔怎么讲话。 如果讲话偏鹰，继续强调通胀和加息风险，BTC、ETH短线可能承压。 如果释放降息信号，那就有机会往上走一波。 今晚建议先等消息落地，冲高遇阻找机会空，回踩支撑企稳再考虑多。 这种消息行情最容易来回插针，别看到一根大阳线就急着追，先让市场把方向走出来。$ZEC #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $SOL just bounced back to $101, and there's a rather unusual data point in the order book.
It ranks first among major coins in gains, yet the 24-hour liquidation volume is only a bit over $3.6 million, just one-tenth of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bears aren't holding hard at this level; there's almost no heavy sell orders above.
The price can be pushed up without triggering many chained liquidations, indicating very light chip distribution.
Such a pump without much effort often leads to sustained momentum.
#SOL
$SOL
👇$BTC is the 3rd largest market by trading volume on Hyperliquid today, and surprisingly, it's not a coin but the South Korean storage chip company SK Hynix 🧵
SK Hynix perpetual contracts have a 24-hour trading volume of $462 million, surpassing HYPE's $322 million.
Only BTC and ETH rank ahead of it.Today is October 29, 2026. After a weekend of volatile declines, does it feel scary? Most of my followers are bullish, recognizing Bitcoin's actual value and long-term upward potential. Even the most steadfast bulls feel fear when seeing such endless pullbacks. Moreover, most people don't have much faith in Bitcoin, so they are even more likely to sell at times like this. I defended and took profit to close my long position at 80,200, then reopened when Bitcoin dropped to 79,300. This can be seen as a bottom-finding process. Normally, according to previous bull market patterns, the pullback should have been completed long ago, and a new phase of volatility should have started. But Bitcoin hasn't shifted yet mainly because there are too many macro uncertainties at the end of October and early November. The market dislikes uncertainty and will buy back once these uncertainties are resolved. Let's see how dense these events are: before the midterm elections in November, whether Trump will restart the war with Iran, the Israeli elections, and the Fed's stance at the policy meeting, especially from Powell. These uncertainties concentrated at the end of October and early November make people hesitant to enter the market now. But if you look closely at wallets holding over 100 Bitcoins, you'll find that since Bitcoin fell below 82,800 each time, these whales have been buying more and more as the price drops. On the contrary, retail investors holding 0 to 100 Bitcoins have been selling more as Bitcoin falls. However, recently it seems selling has slowed down, likely because retail investors have sold most of their accumulated chips. Because I see everyone waiting for Bitcoin to reach 72,000 to 75,000. Personally, I think it's hard to reach that level Based on the current price of about $0.90 and the fundamentals at the end of October 2026, my forecast for the next 3–4 years (2029–2030) is: My price predictions These are subjective scenario estimates, not statistical probability models, nor guaranteed target prices. Why do I make this judgment? 1. FIL's tokenomics are improving. Filecoin ended the partial linear release schedule of genesis tokens in October 2026. The official statement says the daily new circulation has therefore dropped by about 75%. The new reward mechanism also places more emphasis on paying users, not just storage capacity. 2. But commercial demand still needs to prove itself. Filecoin has real technology and storage infrastructure, but commercialization has not reached a scale sufficient to support a very high valuation. DefiLlama tracked on-chain protocol revenues totaling about $1.49 million in the first three quarters of 2026. This does not represent the entire ecosystem's revenue but indicates that growth realization is still very important. 3. You cannot directly predict the future based on the $237 historical high in 2021. Currently, FIL circulation is about 838 million tokens, with a market cap of about $760 million. Even calculating with today's circulation, $10 would mean about $8.4 billion market cap; with future circulation continuing to increase, the requirement will be even higher. If I had to pick one number, my subjective center for FIL around 2030 is SanDisk ($SNDK) earnings countdown, market appetite has been raised sky-high, with institutions even calling for a revenue expectation of 11.45 billion. Capital is rushing in early, precisely positioning a 75x long at 1380.5, current price 1388.3, with floating profits rapidly rising to 41.83%. This round of speculation bets on the explosive storage demand brought by AI data centers.
The trend of funding rates reveals subtle changes in the market. On October 25, it once dipped to around -0.04%, but then quickly recovered, maintaining above 0.01% on October 27. The latest funding rate dropped to 0.00000%, indicating a clear cooling of bullish enthusiasm, while the chip structure is healthier, avoiding crowded trading risks under high rates.
Overly optimistic expectations can easily backfire. As long as the earnings report falls short of the most optimistic line, a "sell the news" scenario is likely, with early profit takers seizing the opportunity to dump shares. However, SanDisk holds many long-term contracts and has a solid foundation. With 75x profits, immediately move the stop loss up to protect the principal. If the earnings report unexpectedly disappoints and causes a dip, it could instead be a window to pick up cheap chips for the long term.
Cryptocurrency and contract trading carry extremely high risks, and price volatility can easily lead to total loss of principal. Please trade cautiously. $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 SK Hynix Earnings Night: AI Siphoning, Crypto Circle Waiting for the Wind🍃
SK Hynix's Q3 operating profit is expected to be about 77 trillion KRW, with Citibank even seeing 81.3 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 614%📈. However, the stock price has already halved by 52% from the June high, and even exceeding expectations can't push it up—the expectations have long been priced in. The real focus of the conference call is the HBM4 production schedule and shareholder return sincerity🔍.
For crypto, this is not a "positive," but more like a "drain"💧. South Korea's AI chip capacity expansion and crypto are competing for the same pool of risk capital; miners are shifting computing power to AI hosting simply because contract returns are more stable. DRAM price increases also raise mining machine costs, systematically pushing up BTC's marginal production cost. The 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and KOSPI has turned negative to -0.41; chip stocks fall, but BTC doesn't necessarily follow; however, the AI capital cycle continues to absorb incremental funds, leaving crypto lacking fuel to rise⛽.
$BTC is repeatedly tugging at the $80,000 psychological level, with the Fed holding steady almost as a clear signal; the real test is the leverage liquidation chain if $80,000 breaks⚠️. $ETH has broken below the 2350 uptrend line, funding rates have plunged 56% in 24 hours, whales have turned bearish, and EMA120 (around 2333) is the mid-term lifeline🧭.
This earnings report confirms: AI capital attraction remains, and crypto's relative weakness is not sentiment but structural🌊. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 🔶 BTC: Transfers to Coinbase Prime may signal institutional repositioning, while withdrawals from Galaxy and BitGo could indicate a shift toward custody. However, the reported slowdown in major buyer accumulation raises questions about near-term demand. 🔷 ETH: The key is whether buying pressure returns or selling pressure continues to dominate. Price action around key resistance levels, exchange flows, and volume will help reveal the next move. The bottom line: institutional transfers alone do