BTC at $79,900, do you dare to take it?
The Fed just turned hawkish, whales sold off 8,000 coins in 24 hours, BTC dropped to 79,900 — but RSI is already oversold. Is this the bottom, or the last cut before the bottom?
Someone in the group shouted "It's going back to 60,000," your finger hovers over the close position button, wanting to cut losses but afraid of cutting at the floor.
I understand. Because every key support level is a slaughterhouse for retail investors.
First thing: The Fed didn’t kill you, it’s the words "higher for longer" that did.
On October 28, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, as expected. But the statement changed the economy description from "solid" to "strong," inflation still described as "elevated," and two officials directly advocated for rate hikes.
After the meeting, BTC surged to 81,700, then fell back during the Asian session. The probability of a December rate hike once soared to 70%-85%.
The market isn’t afraid of no rate cuts; it’s afraid that "the economy is too strong, so no rate cuts."
But note — the hawkish signals are partially priced in. The real verdict comes from Q3 GDP and September PCE on October 29. Core PCE is expected at 3.6%; if hotter, 79,000 won’t hold; if cooling, a rebound is imminent.
Second thing: Whales sold 8,000 coins, are you panicking? But ETFs are still buying.
Whales sold over 8,000 BTC in 24 hours, sounds scary. But on the same day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of about $137 million, mainly into IBIT.
There were outflows from ETFs earlier this month, but buying is still ongoing. BTC has dropped 36% from the October 2025 ATH of 126,000, with leveraged longs liquidated repeatedly.
Third thing: The technicals are walking a tightrope, 79,000 is the lifeline.
Falling from 84,500-85,000, breaking below the 50-day EMA (80,700-81,700), now testing 79,000-80,000. Daily RSI is 34-40, oversold but no clear divergence yet. Volume expands on declines, dominated by long liquidations.
Daily structure shows lower highs, oscillating downward.
Hold 79,000 and rebound with volume to reclaim 81,000: short-term bottoming.
Break 79,000 with 4H confirmation: opens space to 76,000.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
ETFs still have net inflows, IBIT supports
Supply shrinks post-halving, circulating 20.1 million coins, high hash rate
BTC dominance at 59%, still resilient against altcoins
RSI oversold, leveraged positions cleared
On the other side:
Fed hawkish, 70%-85% chance of December hike
PCE/GDP data risks, US bond yields near 5%, strong dollar
Whales taking profits, technical breakdown
End-of-month options expiry + midterm elections in November amplify volatility
Key levels:
Resistance above: 80,500-81,000 (former support turned resistance + moving averages) → 81,700-82,500 → 84,000+
Support below: 79,600-79,000 (recent lows + Fibonacci) → 77,000-78,000 (structure/cost zone) → 76,000
Trading strategy:
Short term (1-3 days):
Hold 79,600-79,000, rebound with volume and reclaim 80,500, light long positions targeting 81,000-81,700, stop loss below 78,800.
Break 79,000 with 4H close confirmation, go short targeting 78,000-77,000, stop loss above 79,500.
Leverage within 5-10x, position size 5-10%.
Mid term (1-2 weeks):
Buy in batches near 79,000, reduce positions at 81,000-82,500; if break 77,000, wait or hedge.
Wait for three signals: PCE/GDP data release + continuous ETF inflows + reclaim 50-day moving average. Once above 81,000, consider mid-term longs.
Long term:
Current position near structural support, can dollar-cost average in batches, but short-term volatility is high, don’t go all in. Halving won’t save your short-term trades but can save your long-term positions.
Strict stop loss, never fully loaded. Watch liquidation heatmaps and funding rates; currently neutral to bearish. If worried about systemic risk, use options or reduce overall exposure.
BTC now is like the end of 2022 —
Everyone waits for lower prices, but it starts when no one believes. But this time, don’t gamble. 79,900 is neither bottom nor top, it’s a truth mirror: revealing who is betting and who is waiting.
You fear the drop; the whales fear you won’t cut losses.
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