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阿炼CryptoView
阿炼CryptoView
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9.30 #10月加息预期回落,今晚PCE成关键 今晚的ADP+PCE凑在一块公布,不是两个普通数据,是给10月加不加息打破平衡的关键砝码 20:15ADP小非农预期7万,前值3.8万 20:30核心PCE 通胀预期3.3%,前值3.3% 双数据低于预期:等于实锤,通胀在降、就业在凉,鸽派直接占上风,加息预期继续降温,美元和美债收益率同步回落,BTC和ETH的估值压力解除,自然能走出修复反弹 BTC突破84500压制,测试85000整数关口 ETH突破2710压力,上摸2750前高 双数据超预期,等于打了鸽派的脸,说明通胀还顽固、就业还火热,鹰派立马强硬,加息概率直接拉满,美债收益率接着冲多年新高,盘面就得继续承压下探 BTC跌破83000支撑,下探82500-82000区间 ETH 跌破2640支撑,下看2620及更低 $BTC $ETH #财报观察员:美光财报临近,AI存储需求成焦点
阿炼CryptoView
阿炼CryptoView
9.30$BTC $ETH Tonight at 20:15, the US ADP small nonfarm payroll data will be released Just checked the comparison between previous expectations and actual data releases, which have had a significant impact on the market Current expectation is 70,000, previous value was 38,000. Don't think ADP employment data is unrelated to the crypto space; it is also one of the key variables in the current macro environment Consider it an appetizer before this week's big nonfarm payroll event, but it's enough to cause a big market fluctuation Data below expectations → cooling employment → easing rate hike expectations → risk assets catch a breather, market shows recovery momentum Data above expectations → hotter employment → inflation pressure harder to ease → rate hike probability maxed out → BTC, ETH continue to face pressure Currently, the market is weak and oscillating, moving averages are suppressing without breakthrough, and volatility increases significantly once data is released Be cautious before data release, avoid heavy positions, do not bet on direction #10月加息预期回落,今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员:美光财报临近,AI存储需求成焦点

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