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Crude oil prices are declining, and the probability of a rate hike in September is weakening. Can further drops in oil prices offset the expected impact of tonight's CPI? Tonight's CPI is considered the "final approval" before the September monetary policy meeting. Before the data release, due to the short-term drop in international crude oil prices, the probability of a September rate hike has fallen to 67.1%. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Clearly, although tonight's CPI is the main data to watch, crude oil prices remain a core variable that can either amplify or offset the impact of tonight's CPI. I won't go into a detailed breakdown of tonight's CPI data here; you can refer to the image. Besides focusing on the impact on the September rate hike probability, attention should also be paid to the secondary transmission effects in services, housing, and energy sectors. This is for detailed research; for most people, just focus on the data itself. In the image, I have listed three possible data combinations, from best to worst. Assuming crude oil prices remain unchanged, these will directly affect the September rate hike probability. The best data combination would weaken the September rate hike probability, likely bringing it back to the 45%-55% range. The neutral combination would likely keep the September rate hike probability around 65%-80%, but the detailed data on commodities, secondary inflation in energy, and services will determine whether the probability shifts up or down. The worst combination would directly push the September rate hike probability above 80%, even up to 90%. Crude oil prices remain a core variable. Currently, crude oil prices have already preemptively lowered part of the September rate hike probability, but this decline is insufficient. Crude oil prices want to