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#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
Is a rate hike really coming? 🤔️
This week, the U.S. will successively release JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls. The labor market momentum will be the main pricing basis for September policy expectations.
Wall Street currently estimates August nonfarm payrolls to be between 50,000 and 80,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. If the numbers soften again, the "there's more work to do" stance from Walsh will be immediately contradicted, rate hike expectations will retract, and risk assets will have room to breathe.
If the numbers are strong, the hawks will directly block both inflation and employment fronts. $BTC testing 76,000 again wouldn't be a fantasy.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
Snapshot at Sep 01, 2026, 06:22
August 31 BTC - ETH Market Analysis
$BTC is still overall bullish, but the momentum has shifted from a rapid surge upward to a period of consolidation at a high level. At this time, it's best not to chase the highs; wait for a suitable entry point before taking action. Looking at BTC on the weekly chart, the previous candle was a strong bullish one, but last week closed as a doji, indicating that bulls are still present but the upward push is hesitating. The mid-term upward structure remains intact, but the short-term shows signs of stalling. So don't rush to chase; patiently wait for a pullback before entering for a safer position. On the daily chart, after the rally, the market is consolidating at a high level with more upper and lower shadows, showing repeated testing between bulls and bears at the top. When going long, try to position yourself early at support levels; avoid chasing during the middle of consolidation. First support: 77000 / 76500, where you can establish an initial position. Second support: 75500 / 75000, consider adding if it continues to dip. Resistance above: 79000, 81000, 83000; these levels are likely to face resistance until a clear breakout occurs. Next, looking at ETH, the approach is similar to Bitcoin: also consolidating at a high level, not advisable to chase highs, prioritize waiting for support. Initial long position: 2400 / 2380; if broken, consider adding at 2300 / 2250. Resistance above: 2460, 2560, 2660; be cautious at these levels, observe if it can hold before deciding to add more. Overall, the trend remains intact, but in the short term, it has entered a phase of waiting for the right position. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴
Is the raging bull market really just around the corner?
I think this is not the start of a bull market, but the middle of a bear market with a slight rebound upward.
Many people bought in at over 70,000, thinking they caught the lowest point. Actually, they didn't. That was just a rebound after falling halfway, not a true bottom.
Many big influencers online are already shouting that the bull market has arrived. The louder they shout now, the more it shows that people are not truly afraid yet; it feels more like a rebound, not the start of a new big rally.
Money hasn't really come back on a large scale, and people's sentiment hasn't cooled to the extreme.
Looking at the US stock market and gold, $BTC now looks more like a rebound within a bear market, not a new bull market.
If weak, it will probably rebound to around 84,000 and then turn down.
If stronger, it might push up to around 94,000 at most.
After the rebound, there will be a harsher drop, possibly down to 30,000 to 40,000.
Simply put: the current rise is a rebound; there may still be a big drop afterward.
Don't mistake this wave of increase as the arrival of a bull market.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
Snapshot at Aug 31, 2026, 15:26
Is Wang Duanniao really going to win big this time on $OKB?
In August 2025, OKX will burn about 65.26 million OKB tokens in one go, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million. The number of tokens is reduced, and the reduction is fixed, instantly maximizing scarcity, with the figure deliberately aligned to Bitcoin's 21 million.
An even bigger change is: it is no longer just a platform token within the exchange. On the X Layer, transfers, DeFi activities, and RWA all require paying fees with OKB. OKX has a large user base; as users move from the exchange to the blockchain, they will genuinely consume this token. Staking, interactions, and project onboarding will all increase demand.
Previously, profits from the platform were used for buybacks; now it depends on whether people are truly using it on-chain.
Ultimately, it comes down to three things: whether serious projects are running on the X Layer, whether real money is being invested, and whether regulations suddenly tighten.
If the ecosystem really heats up, the price will have solid support. If it's still just self-hype and concept speculation with no real use, even if the total supply is locked at 21 million, it will only look good on paper.
Snapshot at Aug 31, 2026, 01:41
August 30 BTC - ETH Market Analysis
Bitcoin has broken out of the oscillating downward structure, with the largest fluctuation this week being only about 4500 points. After a brief surge and recovery at the beginning of the week, bears gradually took control, and on Friday, the market once dipped to around 76800 during the parliamentary session. Ethereum's trend was relatively independent; after retesting 2412 on Wednesday, it rebounded strongly and then broke through the upper resistance, reaching a high of 2566. Strategically, I have always adhered to the idea of buying on dips. Although the market is somewhat grinding, rhythm is profit. No chasing highs, no panic selling, only trading waves I understand. The fluctuations this week were small, but the steady profit-taking rhythm was always present. In the new week, continue to be steady, follow the rhythm closely, and seize the next wave of space. The trading idea remains unchanged: BTC can continue to try long positions on dips to 77000-76000; if it dips below 76000 with a wick, then look to layout in the 75000-74000 range. Upper resistance remains at 81500-83000. ETH can enter long positions on dips to 2430-2400; if it falls below 2400, then try the 2350-2280 range. Upper resistance is at 2550-2600. Wishing everyone a happy weekend! Recharge first, then work hard next week! #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#Elon Musk responds to Morgan Stanley, $3.5 trillion revenue might come seven years early
Morgan Stanley just upgraded SpaceX to "overweight," with a target price of $300, modeling revenue around $3.5 trillion by 2040.
Adam Jonas believes the market is underestimating Starship's pace; the $100 billion launch site planned in Louisiana indicates launch frequency is seriously undervalued.
Reaching $3.5 trillion means roughly 90% annual growth for eight consecutive years. Amazon's revenue in 2025 is only $716.9 billion. That means in seven years, SpaceX would have to be equivalent to five Amazons. He also said in June that by 2030 they aim for $1 trillion, now pulling that crazier target seven years earlier.
Wall Street consensus target price is about $220, Morgan Stanley gives $300, Goldman Sachs is more conservative. Some in the group stack dilution, mergers, and AI all optimistically, shouting $1000, $1300, but that's pure fantasy.
Even if they really hit $1 trillion revenue by 2030, with a mature-stage 10 to 15 times price-to-sales ratio, the stock price range might only reach a few hundred to just over a thousand. All this is conditional on "if."
Listening to slogans outside is meaningless. The real value lies in two things: whether Starship can really launch a dozen times a day, and whether those still-losing AI ventures will drain cash first.
Better to take the $3.5 trillion figure as a joke! What do you think?
Snapshot at Aug 30, 2026, 16:40
#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens
Right now, the market is basically about this: Bitcoin is stuck around 77,500, looking more and more like a pair with gold, and less and less like it's in the same group as tech stocks.
As soon as Wash spoke, it first dropped to 76,890, now it's grinding back up. The 80,000 mark is gone; in the short term, it's just back and forth, letting out this breath first. Either the fundamentals are bad, or everyone is just hiding after the news lands.
Grayscale's numbers are quite clear: in the past three months, it has moved with gold more than half the time, but only about 30% of the time with the Nasdaq.
US Treasury yields are still hovering above 5%, fiat currency is becoming less trustworthy, and the market is starting to view Bitcoin and gold together.
Just watch the 77,000 line. If it holds, it will push up again; if not, it might slide down to 75,000. That's basically it. Haha!
#Wash emphasizes inflation risk, September rate hike expectations heat up
#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens
Snapshot at Aug 30, 2026, 05:37
August 29 BTC - ETH Market Analysis
From last night to today, the sentiment suddenly shifted. Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke very plainly at the Jackson Hole symposium: inflation hasn't really come down much, the Fed still has work to do, financial conditions aren't tight yet, and interest rates remain the main tool. This is basically the closest he's come since taking office to suggesting more rate hikes might be needed, with a clearly hawkish stance. The market reacted quickly. Traders immediately raised the probability of a rate hike in September, with hikes and pauses almost evenly split. The US dollar strengthened, Bitcoin surged to 79,971 before crashing down directly to a low of 76,853, a pullback of over three thousand points in one day; Ethereum also surged to 2,526 before quickly falling to a low of 2,403. Both formed large bearish candles together, establishing a short-term bearish structure. First, look at BTC's immediate resistance at 78,100–78,400, basically derived from the 1-hour structure. When the rebound reaches here, volume shrinks and upper shadows increase, mostly indicating a weak retracement. To truly turn bullish, it must at least hold above this area; don't just briefly break above and then fall back. Further up, 79,000–79,500 is strong resistance; previous highs and pullbacks occurred around here, so without volume to hold above, don't consider it a breakout. On the downside, first watch 77,300 as near-term support; a pullback will likely find a floor here. If it doesn't hold, test the recent low at 76,853. 76,853 is a watershed: holding it qualifies for a rebound; a decisive break below signals a continuation of the downtrend, with the next support at 76,000, and if weaker, 75,000. For ETH, the resistance is at 2,460–2,478, corresponding to BTC's near-term resistance. When it reaches here, volume...
Damn! $BICO has bounced back!
The big trend hasn't changed; the rebound is just a setup for you to short. This current surge looks fierce, but it's actually tricking those chasing the rally to get on board, then crashing all the way down.
Short positions are being realized step by step, the lowest has already hit 0.02178, getting closer to the target.
If it bounces again, don't get impulsive and chase longs.
When it bounces, look for shorting opportunities. Keep an eye on whether the support breaks; if it breaks, continue to short downwards.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
Snapshot at Aug 29, 2026, 16:01
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Damn! Wash's speech tonight, frankly, is just for show. What the market wants to hear is: how much inflation triggers rate hikes, how bad employment has to get before easing, and whether the Fed will intervene when long-term bonds go haywire.
PCE is still at 3.7%, with about half of the basket items rising over 3%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 203,000, but he acts like he didn't see it. He nailed 2% down hard, yet says financial conditions aren't tight enough. After listening, you get it: whether there will be a hike in September, he won't tell you in advance.
He was vague once in July, and 30-year Treasury yields shot up immediately. The Treasury stepped into the bond market, and before the meeting, Schmidt and Harker were still emphasizing inflation risks. Everyone hoped he'd clarify the boundary between the Fed and Treasury tonight, but it was the same old: talk less, give no framework, let you guess.
Some on X changed the September hike probability from just over 30% to over 50% after watching. Short-term rates jumped first, stocks pretended nothing happened at noon, but the bond market kept sounding alarms.
In the Chinese community, some say he talks tough but is hyping AI behind the scenes as a talking point. The crypto world is more direct: BTC dropped from around 81,000, failed to hold 80,000, and touched a low near 78,000.
So don't bet your net worth on the direction before and after the speech. There are sell-offs between 81,000 and 81,500 on BTC, and a bunch of long liquidations cushioning between 78,500 and 80,000.
If it leans a bit hard, it will press down to 78,000; if it eases, there's a chance to see 82,000.
The weekend is coming, the market will be relatively quiet, so better to move less and watch more!
Snapshot at Aug 29, 2026, 01:55