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Before September 16, all technical analysis is worthless. Because inside the Federal Reserve, the vote is currently 6 to 5, just one person away from a decision. And that person has been silent for almost four months. First, look at the vote count. Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, posted a chart on X yesterday — among the 12 voting members of the FOMC: 6 votes support keeping the interest rate unchanged (3.50%-3.75%) 5 votes support a 25 basis point rate hike 1 vote is undecided Since the Federal Reserve established the modern voting system in 1936, there has never been a 6-6 tie. This time, with less than two weeks to the meeting, the real probability of a rate hike is already 50/50. This is not economic analysis; this is political arithmetic. Who cast the 5 rate hike votes? It doesn’t matter. What matters is — who turned the situation into 6:5? Christopher Waller. On September 3, this Federal Reserve governor publicly stated: if August inflation data continues to cool, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged. But he didn’t rule out — “If inflation data is hotter, I would consider a rate hike.” Waller’s implicit threshold: core PCE month-over-month exceeding 0.30%. In other words — next week’s CPI data will directly decide which side he votes for. But the person truly keeping the market awake is someone else. Jerome Powell. Since stepping down as Federal Reserve Chair in May, he has not spoken publicly. No interviews, no speeches, no X posts. His silence has now become the biggest source of uncertainty in global financial markets. Bianco’s exact words: “Powell’s stance is unclear and may be the key to the ‘swing vote.’” Swing vote. Four words worth trillions of dollars in volatility. Wall Street has gone crazy. Bank of America Securities predicts August core CPI will rise 0.22% month-over-month, believing this level “is enough to convince the Fed Chair that inflation is not yet under control, thus supporting another rate hike.” Citibank predicts only a 0.18% rise, believing the Fed should hold steady. Two top investment banks, predicting the same data — differing by only 0.04 percentage points. 0.04% decides whether to hike rates or not. You tell me this is macroeconomic analysis? This is rolling dice. What does this mean for the crypto market? In this 50/50 scenario, any directional volatility will be amplified. BTC’s options market is already pricing a “bimodal” outcome — either a violent rally or a waterfall crash. CME’s “FedWatch” shows the probability of a September rate hike falling from 62.3% a week ago to 50.2%, then rebounding to 58.6%. A different story every day. One candlestick changes the odds. Stop looking at economic models; now it’s time to count votes. 6 votes to 5 votes. Just one person away. And that person hasn’t said a word. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6%