Many people are still following individual stock trends this week, but actually, this isn't the right time to do so because the macro environment has introduced new risks—whether the economy is stalling
Combining the previous text, inflation data weakened, and interest rate hikes in September were suppressed, but this triggered a new risk economy slowdown. Starting with last week's retail data, this week will gradually verify whether this conclusion holds true.
A soft landing for the U.S. economy is the best outcome, but once stagflation and recession risks arise, the impact on high-beta assets like tech stocks is most pronounced, because the economy is weak and risk appetite is low, and investors tend to adopt a defensive investment approach
The most obvious performance today was the change in the SPHB/SPHQ ratio, which fell directly from 1.73 on Monday to 1.69, indicating a decline in risk appetite and a shift from high-beta stocks to high-quality ones—a typical defensive conversion
Generally, this situation indicates that the stock market is concerned about the economic environment. Continue to monitor this indicator this week. If the indicator continues to decline, especially if stagflation and recession risks increase, high-quality stocks will generally be more resilient and their ratios will gradually decrease. Conversely, a rebound in the ratio means increased risk appetite! #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
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