Post

挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Show original
《关于韩国股市V型反转,你需要知道的5件事》 🧵 一条Thread,把这事儿说透 1/5 【数据冲击】 KOSPI,10天,涨了22%。 7月跌22%,8月涨22%。一个月亏掉的钱,十天涨回来一半。 周四KOSPI一度暴涨4.8%,较7月30日低点累计反弹约23%,正式重返技术性牛市。 三星电子涨超5%,SK海力士涨超7%。 注意一个细节:急涨行情甚至触发了程序化买单的短暂停止机制。 这不是慢牛,是过山车。 7月亏掉的钱,8月还没全回来。 2/5 【最大催化剂】 淡马锡。 管理4045亿美元的“长钱”,计划首次直接投资韩国股市。 目标是三星电子和SK海力士。 注意关键词:首次。淡马锡在全球投了20年,从来没碰过韩国股市。这次破例了。 一个投行人士说得直白:尽管三星和SK海力士股价已从去年低点飙涨超880%,淡马锡仍坚信相关行业存在巨大上行空间。 这不是来炒短线的。 是来布局AI下一个十年的。 3/5 【为什么是存储?】 淡马锡内部判断:AI供应链中,存储芯片估值最为低估。 数据告诉你有多低估: 三星远期市盈率4.2倍,SK海力士3.6倍。 费城半导体指数成分股的远期市盈率超过21倍。 一个3.6倍,一个21倍。同一个AI赛道,差了6倍。 更狠的是基本面—— SK海力士2026年HBM产能已全部售罄,订单排到2027年一季度。 三星、SK海力士、美光已经完成2027年全年产能分配谈判,DRAM与HBM产能提前售罄。 SK集团会长崔泰源预测,2027年AI半导体需求同比增加60%-100%,整体存储需求增50%-60%,“将是史上最严峻的供需失衡”。 需求已经排到后年了,估值才3倍多。 长钱不傻。 4/5 【另一个催化剂】 三星电子+SK海力士,最快8月底前公布股东回报方案。 合计可能超过200万亿韩元——约合1412亿美元。 “史诗级”分红回购。 三星今年股东回报规模可能超过100万亿韩元。SK海力士二季度末现金及现金等价物已达88万亿韩元。 业绩爆炸 → 现金堆积 → 巨额分红 → 股价再涨。 这个正向循环一旦启动,做多情绪直接点燃。 5/5 【对加密的启示】 全球资本正在重估“硬件基础设施”的价值。 AI→算力→存储→数据中心。 这条链上的每一环,都在被重新定价。 淡马锡的目标是:未来五年内将AI相关资产占比从6%提升至15%。 4045亿美元的15%,是600亿。 600亿美金,正在寻找下一个洼地。 加密世界的去中心化存储、AI算力赛道—— 会不会是下一个被“长钱”盯上的方向? 总结一句话: 7月,杠杆杀了散户。 8月,长钱抄了机构的底。 你,在哪一边? $SKHYNIX $SKHY $SAMSUNG #芯片股领涨,韩股十日反弹逾22%
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Temasek's First Foray into South Korea: Why Bet on Storage Chips with $404.5 Billion of "Long Money"? On August 12, a piece of news sent the South Korean stock market into a frenzy. The KOSPI index surged nearly 5% intraday. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares both soared over 8%. By August 13, KOSPI had rebounded more than 22% from its July 30 low, re-entering a technical bull market. In just 10 days, it climbed back from the abyss. The trigger wasn’t earnings reports or the Federal Reserve, but the name of one institution— Temasek. The Singapore sovereign wealth fund managing about $404.5 billion in assets plans to invest directly in the South Korean stock market for the first time. Its targets are two companies: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This is not short-term speculation. This is the world’s top-tier "long money" positioning itself ahead of the AI hardware second half. Let’s look at some numbers. In July this year, the South Korean stock market plunged 22%, marking its worst monthly performance since the global financial crisis. Leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, and retail investors lost hundreds of billions of dollars. Foreign investors have net withdrawn over $100 billion from the South Korean stock market this year. Everyone was running away. Then Temasek arrived. And the way it chose to enter is highly unusual— using internal personnel to invest directly rather than outsourcing to external asset management firms. Investment bankers interpret this as a strong sign of Temasek’s confidence in its judgment. In plain terms: it’s not a trial; it’s all in. Not outsourcing to fund companies to casually buy some shares, but insiders personally taking heavy positions. So why is Temasek so confident? Two reasons. First, it is "filling a gap." Temasek has long been positioned in the AI track—NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, OpenAI, Anthropic. But storage chips have always been the missing key piece in its semiconductor portfolio. Samsung and SK Hynix are that missing piece. Second, it believes storage chips are severely undervalued. Temasek’s judgment is that within the AI value chain, the memory semiconductor sector is the most undervalued. Note, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s stock prices have already risen over 880% from last year’s lows. Nearly 9 times up, yet Temasek still says undervalued. It’s like at an auction, an item has surged from 1 million to 10 million, and suddenly someone says, "It can still go higher; I’ll pay 20 million." You’re either crazy or you see something others don’t. What does Temasek see? A time dimension. At its July briefing this year, the institution clearly stated: by 2031, AI-related investments will increase from the current 6% of the overall portfolio to as high as 15%. In five years, more than doubling. This is not quarterly allocation; this is a strategic shift. Temasek defines AI semiconductors as "a long-term growth area driving industrial structural transformation, not a short-term craze." While others panic sell due to "AI investment overheating," it is adding positions against the trend. There’s one more chilling detail. Temasek revealed to Bloomberg that it first invested in these two companies two years ago. Two years ago. Back then, ChatGPT wasn’t popular, HBM wasn’t discussed, and storage chips were still at the cycle bottom. It was already in. Now, when the market panics, leverages blow up, and foreign capital withdraws, it not only hasn’t fled but has increased its stake. This is not bottom fishing. This is closing the net after two years of positioning. One last question: Samsung and SK Hynix’s stock prices have risen nearly 9 times; is Temasek buying at the peak now? Samsung and SK Hynix’s forward P/E ratios are only 4.2 and 3.6 respectively, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index overall exceeds 21. Global chip stocks average 21 times; these two are under 4 times. Tell me, who’s at the peak? Who’s at the foot of the mountain? When a fund managing $400 billion starts positioning, it’s not here to trade a rebound; it’s here to secure a spot. $BTC $SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG #芯片股领涨,韩股十日反弹逾22%

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!