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Crypture 科噗球
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長線來看還有一個利空， Circle 是持續增發股票去付薪水
一般公司增發是要拿現金去做事，而 Circle 發出去的股票幾乎不是投入生產性資產，而是直接付給人，包含員工薪水、員工認股、商業合作。
今年已增發 1,034 萬股，全年預計約 1,774 萬股，換算市值約 11.9 億，增發 7 %流通量；2027年估計增發約 994 萬股，換算市值約 6.67 億，兩年合計 18.6 億美元，扣掉員工行使選擇權繳回，淨流出約 16.9 億美元，等於 Circle 帳上現金的 98%，而同期回購金額是 0。
而更驚人的是 Circle 最大可增發 Class A 25 億股，目前只用掉 9.3%，還能再增發 10 倍，目前授權可發行總量約 7,870 萬股，約等於流通股的 31%，而且可發行股每年自動補流通股 6%。實際發行量每年由薪酬委員會單方決定，股東沒有否決權。
$CRCL
Crypture 科噗球
Just one point in rate hikes could easily earn Circle $53 million
From a two-point rate cut at the beginning of the year to now expected a possible hike, if the rate hike really does reach one notch on 9/16, based on the current USDC circulating supply of 73.3 billion and 106 days by year-end, revenue would be +$53 million, net profit +$20 million.
Coincidentally, on the same day, 9/16, the ARC mainnet launched. If this can further increase USDC circulation, Morgan Stanley might have to raise its target 😂 price in hindsight
That said, Circle's long-term outlook remains uncertain. While the narrative of a downturn, rebound + interest rate hikes, and ARC mainnet revenue growth is still needed, the long-term focus should still be on USDC circulation growth in Q3, Q4, and next year.
$CRCL
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