Publier

Tonight, the US July non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and hourly earnings will be released consecutively, making it the biggest single variable for risk assets this week. The logic chain is straightforward: strong data → reinforces long-term high interest rates → strengthens the dollar → pressure on risk assets; weak data reverses this. The market has already been pricing in a more hawkish Fed path over the past two days, with both US stocks and bonds retreating, and crypto weakening in sync. So don't treat tonight's data as ordinary; it determines the discount rate environment for the next two weeks. $BTC is currently stuck in structural volatility, waiting for this directional confirmation. Before the data comes out, position sizing is more important than opinions. Let the positions speak.