Postaus

#PCE month-over-month turns negative, GDP growth slows to 1.5% Last night, this data set was a bit contradictory. PCE month-over-month turned negative for the first time since 2020. It sounds like inflation has been completely suppressed. But looking at oil prices, which have risen 20% cumulatively in July, it's hard to believe inflation is truly over. GDP growth is 1.5%, below the expected 2.1%. But domestic private final sales grew 3.9%, hitting a new high since 2023. Americans are still spending. The surface data looks weak, but underlying domestic demand remains strong. This is the characteristic of the current macro data — it looks cool on the surface but isn’t that cool in reality. Both signals coexist, so the market didn’t react much to the data release. The negative PCE might just be a short-term disturbance caused by oil prices; when oil prices are recalculated into the statistics next month, the numbers might change again. For the crypto market, the significance of this data is that it hasn’t changed anything. The probability of a rate hike in September remains around 63%, with no significant drop. Without expectations of a rate cut, BTC continues to consolidate around 64000. What the market is waiting for is trend confirmation — whether the negative PCE is persistent or temporary, and whether rate cut expectations can be reestablished. Until the answer appears, prices will find it hard to choose a direction. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #30YYieldAt19YHigh #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay