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TraderS | 缺德道人
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再科普一下马斯克帝国套娃史:
起步是2016年的SolarCity→Tesla——26亿美元把表兄弟的公司加自己的投资装进特斯拉,股东告到特拉华,他赢了官司并打破先例
工业化版本就是这次:X装进xAI(330亿,2025年3月)→xAI装进SpaceX(800亿级对价,2026年初)→顺手再装个Cursor(600亿全股票)→六月IPO
他最终会通过惯用的换股方式把Tesla合并进SpaceX,所以确保SPCX贵TSLA便宜是必须的路径(但这个强弱是相对而言的)
上周特斯拉财报后的电话会已经开始做业务融合的铺垫,后面的牌大概率会按这种方式接力:
1. 8月4日首份财报:用星链收入、AI订单和资本开支指引重估基本面
2. 8月5日供给空档、8月6日解锁检验、8月7日Grok节点:先制造财报与产品关注,再面对真实供给
3. 星舰14预热:尤其是上级飞船塔架捕获,这比普通发射更适合重新炒“完全复用经济学”。只要成功,就可以大肆宣传像民航客机一样商用航天马上就要来了。
4. 无预警突然发布的:星盾、五角大楼、AI算力或星链大单
5. 长线捆绑炒作Tesla—SpaceX协同乃至合并预期
当然,马斯克会不会这么走让我们一步步跟随验证$SPCX
And it was released on August 7th, just the day after the unlock date. This is definitely a market support move. Whether he can actually support it or not is unknown, but the fact that the project team is taking action and conveying this information is very important. Also, after the Starship 13 launch, he has already started warming up for 14, and this time the highlight will be the tower recovery.
He is very likely to release positive news repeatedly based on milestones to push up the stock price. Musk is an expert at market cap management both in the crypto and stock worlds. He even personally orchestrated the step-by-step asset packaging to facilitate SpaceX's IPO $SPCX
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