#30YrYieldTopOrStart
About 30YrYieldTopOrStart
After the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, a 2007 high, long-end pricing split fast. JPMorgan pulled its Fed hike call from H2 2027 to this December and lifted end-2026 targets: 10-year to 4.85% from 4.70%, 30-year to 5.40% from 5.20%. Two forces pull back: US-Iran talks sent oil down over 7% intraday, easing the inflation prop; and Japan selling Treasuries to fund yen intervention would lift yields, though Bessent's FIMA repo lets Tokyo get dollars without selling. 5.3% is the anchor to watch.
Veelbesproken
Laatste
30YrYieldTopOrStart Populaire berichten
Vastgezet
Een beetje grappig, de meest klassieke metafoor van het snijden van een boot om een zwaard te zoeken — het rendement op 30-jarige Amerikaanse staatsobligaties is net zo hoog als in juni 2007, dus komt er een economische crisis?
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Niet slechts één grote expert vergelijkt het rendement op 30-jarige Amerikaanse staatsobligaties met dat van juni 2027 en zegt dan dat er toen snel een economische crisis kwam.
Het probleem is, met hetzelfde rendement van 5,27% op staatsobligaties, kunnen de omgevingen met rentetarieven van 3,6% en 5,25% hetzelfde zijn?
┈➤ Langlopende Amerikaanse staatsobligatierendementen vs effectieve federal funds rate
De effectieve federal funds rate is meestal de rente die wordt gehanteerd bij tijdelijke leningen tussen commerciële banken wanneer er onvoldoende reserves zijn bij het afwikkelen. Dit is de korte rente.
Langlopende Amerikaanse staatsobligatierendementen zijn vanwege de lange looptijd voorzien van een hogere termijnvergoeding, dus normaal gesproken zijn deze rendementen hoger dan de effectieve federal funds rate (hierna rente genoemd).
┈➤ 2026 vs 2017
In juni 2017 was de rente 5,25%, en het rendement van 5,27% op staatsobligaties was hoog, wat verband hield met de hoge rente.
In werkelijkheid was het rendement op 30-jarige staatsobligaties van ongeveer juli 2016 tot juni 2017 lager dan de rente, wat een inversie van de rendementscurve betekent.
Juni 2017 was het moment waarop het rendement op 30-jarige staatsobligaties net weer rond de rente kwam. Destijds was het rendement op staatsobligaties relatief niet hoog ten opzichte van de rente.
Zowel de inversie vóór juni 2017 als de daling van het rendement op 30-jarige staatsobligaties na juni 2017 weerspiegelen een tekort aan aanbod van deze langlopende staatsobligaties, wat werd gedreven door verwachtingen van renteverlagingen en recessie.
In het huidige 2026 is de rente 3,6%, het rendement op 30-jarige staatsobligaties ligt ver boven de rente en vertoont een stijgende trend.
Momenteel is er een verwachting van renteverhogingen en is er geen trend van tekort aan langlopende staatsobligaties, waarschijnlijk ook geen recessieverwachting.
De reden dat we zeggen waarschijnlijk, is omdat de omvang van Amerikaanse staatsobligaties te snel groeit en er bepaalde risico's zijn, waardoor de motivatie om staatsobligaties als veilige haven te kopen mogelijk afneemt. Maar een ander veilig haven-activum — goud — vertoont nu ook een dalende trend. Daarom zeggen we waarschijnlijk geen recessieverwachting.
tvbee
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Het risico van Amerikaanse staatsobligaties is al met het blote oog zichtbaar, dus zal de Federal Reserve in september echt zeker de rente verhogen?
Renteverhogingen zullen de opbrengst van Amerikaanse staatsobligaties opdrijven en de financieringskosten van het Amerikaanse ministerie van Financiën verhogen.
┈➤ De "ambigue" relatie tussen de Federal Reserve en de federale overheid
Hoewel de Federal Reserve onafhankelijk is, is de relatie tussen de Federal Reserve en het ministerie van Financiën ook "ambigue".
╰✦ De Federal Reserve draagt haar nettowinst af aan de federale overheid
Enerzijds is de Federal Reserve weliswaar zelfvoorzienend, maar moet zij de resterende nettowinst aan de Amerikaanse overheid afdragen.
De Amerikaanse overheid verstrekt geen subsidies aan de Federal Reserve. Bovendien draagt de Federal Reserve, nadat zij kosten heeft gedekt, dividenden aan lid-commerciële banken heeft betaald, eerdere verliezen heeft gecompenseerd en wettelijke reserves heeft aangehouden, het grootste deel van haar nettowinst af aan het ministerie van Financiën.
╰✦ Het grootste deel van de inkomsten van de Federal Reserve komt uit Amerikaanse staatsobligaties
Anderzijds komt het grootste deel van de inkomsten van de Federal Reserve normaal gesproken uit het aanhouden van staatsobligaties uitgegeven door het ministerie van Financiën.
De Federal Reserve creëert dollarliquiditeit door staatsobligaties en door hypotheekgedekte effecten (MBS) te kopen.
Het kopen of afbouwen van staatsobligaties is een van de belangrijkste vormen van QE/QT. Daarom houdt de Federal Reserve langdurig grote hoeveelheden staatsobligaties aan, en de rente op deze obligaties is een belangrijke bron van inkomsten voor de Federal Reserve.
Daarnaast koopt de Federal Reserve tijdens QE MBS en houdt deze voor een bepaalde periode aan, wat ook rente-inkomsten kan genereren. Maar in de meeste jaren zijn de rente-inkomsten uit staatsobligaties groter. Als bank voor commerciële banken biedt de Federal Reserve ook diensten zoals discontering en leningen, wat ook inkomsten kan opleveren. Maar tenzij in crisistijden, zijn deze inkomsten meestal gering.
Dus over het algemeen zijn staatsobligaties een van de belangrijkste inkomstenbronnen van de Federal Reserve.
Dus, zal de Federal Reserve zonder enige zorg voor staatsobligaties en de Amerikaanse overheid de rente verhogen?
┈➤ Moet er bij inflatie altijd renteverhoging komen?
Feng Xiong heeft dit al talloze keren geanalyseerd: inflatie veroorzaakt door olieprijzen kan niet fundamenteel worden opgelost door renteverhogingen.
Renteverhogingen dienen vooral om de verwachting van loonstijgingen te onderdrukken, om zo de "loon-inflatie" spiraal te remmen.
Dus de verwachting van renteverhogingen kan ook dit effect hebben.
Of er in september rente wordt verhoogd, hangt nog af van de data van juli en augustus. Als de CPI niet verslechtert, kan het zijn dat de Federal Reserve toch afwacht.
┈➤ Tot slot
Enerzijds gelooft Feng Xiong niet dat een renteverhoging in september onvermijdelijk is. Zal de relatie tussen de Federal Reserve en de federale overheid echt zo zijn dat ze zonder enige terughoudendheid de Amerikaanse overheid benadelen?
Anderzijds is de verwachting van een renteverhoging in september al ingeprijsd; de stijging van de opbrengst van staatsobligaties betekent in wezen dat de markt al rekening houdt met renteverhogingen.
Feng Xiong denkt dat het verkleinen van de balans (balance sheet reduction) misschien geschikter is dan renteverhogingen.
Omdat het verkleinen van de balans ook een verkrappingsverwachting creëert, wat helpt om de verwachting van loonstijgingen te onderdrukken en de "loon-inflatie" spiraal te remmen. Als we naar de maand-op-maand groei van lonen in de VS kijken, is er geen trend van versnelde loonstijging.
Het verschil tussen het verkleinen van de balans en renteverhogingen is dat elke renteverhoging een plotselinge verkrapping is, terwijl het verkleinen van de balans een geleidelijke verkrapping is.
Bij het verkleinen van de balans worden staatsobligaties die de Federal Reserve aanhoudt bij aflopen automatisch afgelost zonder volledige heraankoop, wat een geleidelijk effect heeft op de vraag naar staatsobligaties en minder schok veroorzaakt.
En Wash's voorstel was oorspronkelijk eerst de balans verkleinen, daarna de rente verlagen.
Natuurlijk is dit Feng Xiongs persoonlijke mening; het besluit van de Federal Reserve zal waarschijnlijk afhangen van de ontwikkelingen in de VS-Iran relatie en inflatietrends in juli en augustus.
🚨 Something unusual is happening in markets: bonds are flashing caution, yet risk assets keep pushing higher.
The 30-year Treasury yield reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades would normally make traders nervous. But instead of a broad risk-off reaction, markets are showing something different — a possible repricing of fiscal reality.
Amazon’s earnings reaction tells the same story:
❌ Guidance disappoints
✅ Stock jumps 9%
That’s a reminder that positioning, expectations, and sentiment can sometimes overpower the headlines.
For crypto, the signal is interesting.
Historically, a surge in long-term yields while BTC holds above $63K would often be viewed as a warning sign. But this time, the relationship looks less straightforward.
If markets are reacting less to short-term rates and more to long-term concerns around debt and deficits, scarce assets could tell a different story.
The thesis isn’t confirmed yet.
But one thing is clear:
Price action is refusing to follow the old script.
Don’t just watch the news. Watch what capital is actually doing.
Liquidity, positioning, and market behavior often reveal the real story before the headlines do.
Just market observation — not financial advice.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #MarketAnalysis #OKXOrbit
#DailyOrbit
🚨 Crypto traders are watching charts… but the bigger signal may be coming from the bond market. 👀
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level in nearly two decades — a macro development that could influence crypto’s next major move.
Why does it matter?
When long-term “risk-free” yields rise, investors often become more selective.
Higher yields can lead to:
📉 Higher borrowing costs
📉 Tighter liquidity conditions
📉 Lower risk appetite
Historically, these conditions have created pressure on $BTC, $ETH, and altcoins as capital rotates toward safer, income-generating assets.
But the picture isn’t one-sided.
If rising yields reflect inflation concerns or uncertainty around monetary policy, Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative could become stronger as some investors look for alternative assets.
The key factors to watch:
📌 Interest rate expectations
📌 ETF flows
📌 Global liquidity conditions
📌 Federal Reserve policy
The 30-year Treasury yield hitting a 19-year high is more than a bond market headline.
It’s a macro signal.
For crypto investors, tracking Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed decisions may be just as important as watching $BTC and $ETH charts.
Follow liquidity. Watch macro. Stay prepared. 📊
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #ColdcardBTCExploit #Ethereum11Years
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK#DailyOrbit
🚨 The Bond Market Is Flashing an Important Signal
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades, showing that investors are demanding higher returns to hold long-term government bonds.
Several factors are contributing to this move:
📈 Inflation remains a concern.
🏦 Expectations are growing that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer.
💵 Higher yields translate into increased borrowing costs across the economy.
For crypto, rising bond yields can reduce investors' appetite for risk, potentially creating short-term pressure on digital assets. At the same time, any shift in expectations around future Fed policy could increase volatility across both traditional and crypto markets.
Keeping an eye on bond yields may provide valuable insight into broader market sentiment throughout August.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms #EarningsWeekAhead #Crypto #Bitcoin #MacroEconomy
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#SpaceXUnlockLooms
#EarningsWeekAhead
$BTC $ETH
$BEAT
🚨 THE BOND MARKET IS FLASHING WARNING SIGNALS
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has climbed to a 19-year high, indicating that investors are demanding higher returns to hold long-term U.S. debt.
This reflects concerns regarding:
📈 Inflation potentially remaining elevated.
🏦 The Federal Reserve potentially keeping interest rates high for longer.
💵 Continued increases in borrowing costs.
For the crypto market, rising bond yields typically cause capital flows to become more cautious in the short term. However, if this pressure compels the Fed to take more decisive action in upcoming meetings, volatility for BTC and the broader market could be significant.
👀 This is a macro indicator that every crypto investor should monitor throughout August.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
The headlines say "be careful." The market says "buy anyway."
That's what makes this moment so interesting.
Something unusual is happening beneath the surface.
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to levels not seen in nearly two decades—a move that would normally pressure stocks and crypto. Yet instead of a broad risk-off reaction, risk assets continue to push higher.
Then there's Amazon.
❌ Weak guidance.
✅ Stock surges 9%.
It's another reminder that markets don't move on headlines alone. They move on expectations, positioning, and where capital is already sitting.
For crypto, the message is worth paying attention to.
In previous cycles, rising long-term yields while $BTC held above key levels would have been a clear warning sign. This time, the relationship looks different.
If investors are becoming more concerned about long-term debt and fiscal sustainability than short-term interest rates, scarce assets like Bitcoin could begin trading under a different narrative.
Is that thesis confirmed?
Not yet.
But one thing is becoming hard to ignore:
Price isn't following the old playbook anymore.
Don't just read the headlines.
Watch where liquidity is flowing, how traders are positioned, and how price reacts when the news hits.
That's often where the real story begins.
Just market observations—not financial advice. ⚡
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #MarketAnalysis #OKXOrbit #DailyOrbit
30Y Yield Hits 19-Year High: Why Crypto Is Facing a Major Stress Test
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades, marking one of the most significant macro developments of the year. When a traditionally "risk-free" asset offers yields above 5%, global capital tends to become more selective, creating a challenging environment for high-volatility assets such as cryptocurrencies.
The first impact is on liquidity. Higher Treasury yields translate into higher borrowing costs, more expensive leverage, and reduced risk appetite across financial markets. Historically, these conditions have placed short-term pressure on $BTC, $ETH, and the broader altcoin market as speculative capital shifts toward safer, income-generating assets.
However, the crypto story is not entirely bearish. If rising yields are driven by persistent inflation concerns and growing doubts about the long-term effectiveness of monetary policy, Bitcoin may regain attention as a scarce digital asset with potential value as an inflation hedge. This is why every major move in the U.S. bond market is closely monitored by crypto investors.
In the near term, volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets reassess interest rate expectations, ETF capital flows, and overall liquidity conditions. Stronger U.S. Treasury yields could continue to weigh on risk assets, but any signs of easing inflation or a shift in Federal Reserve policy could quickly reverse sentiment.
Ultimately, the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-year high is more than a bond market headline—it's a key macro signal that could shape the next major trend for digital assets. For crypto investors, monitoring Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and upcoming Federal Reserve guidance may be just as important as watching the price charts of $BTC and $ETH.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#ColdcardBTCExploit
#Ethereum11Years
$BTC $ETH
The market just delivered one of its biggest contradictions yet—and smart money has already made its choice.
Brothers, we're looking at two completely different stories unfolding at the same time.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27%, its highest level since 2007. Three rate hikes, resilient domestic demand, and a 20% surge in oil prices over the past month have all strengthened expectations that higher rates could stay around for longer.
At the very same time, June's PCE posted its first negative reading since 2020, suggesting inflation is finally cooling.
Two major signals. Two opposite directions.
So what did the market believe?
Capital answered with action. Treasury yields kept climbing without looking back.
The message is clear: compared with a single month of negative PCE data, investors are paying far more attention to rising oil prices and strong demand. A 20% jump in oil prices isn't just another statistic—it reinforces expectations of future input inflation.
With long-term Treasury yields pushing toward 5.3%, the cost of capital over the coming years is moving higher.
For the crypto market, this doesn't mean the bull cycle is over. It means the road ahead is likely to be more volatile. The destination hasn't changed—only the speed of the journey has.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $GRVT
#DailyOrbit
When the 30-year Treasury touches its highest yield in nearly two decades and risk assets rally anyway, that is not a market shrugging off risk. It is a market repricing fiscal reality. The Amazon earnings play tells the same story: guidance disappointment, stock up 9%. Positioning and sentiment are doing more work than fundamentals right now.
The implication for crypto is worth sitting with. BTC holding above $63K while long-end rates surge would historically have been a sell signal. This time, the correlation is looser. If the bond market is pricing in structural deficit concerns rather than just rate path, hard assets and scarce-supply tokens may not be the obvious victims. The thesis is still unproven, but price action is at least not contradicting it.
Just my read, not advice.
#OKXOrbit
# 30-year U.S. bond yield hits 19-year high
30 The yield on US Treasury bonds soared to 5.27%, reaching a new high since 2007. 19 The ceiling of the year was broken.
What's this K-line saying today
The FOMC's three votes advocated interest rate hikes, domestic demand reached a two-year high in the second quarter, and oil prices rose by about 20% in a single month. These three forces simultaneously pushed up inflation expectations. The market's pricing of the probability of a rate hike in September has increased. On the other hand, the month-on-month PCE in June has just turned negative for the first time since 2020, with a cooling inflation and a new high in the long term. The bond market has chosen to believe in oil prices and domestic demand, rather than PCE.
When long-term interest rates break through the 19-year range, it means the market no longer believes that the Fed can easily control inflation. The bond market believes that high interest rates need to be maintained longer, or even continue to increase. This is the valuation anchor of the risk asset moving.
Impact on BTC
In the short term, the surge in long-term interest rates directly suppresses the valuation of risk assets. As a high beta variety, BTC is under pressure in this macro environment. The rise in US bond yields means that the relative attractiveness of the US dollar has increased, and some funds will flow back into the bond market from risk assets.
But in the medium term, the 30-year yield at a 19-year high is a signal in itself. When the world's safest assets start offering risk-free returns of more than 5%, it means that the cost of holding dollar credit is rising. If oil prices continue to run high and domestic demand remains strong, the Fed may be forced to continue raising interest rates in September. This is negative for BTC in the short term, but if interest rates continue to rise and start to eat back at economic growth, the logic of dollar credit loss will eventually strengthen demand for non-sovereign assets.
What's next
Momentopname op 02 aug 2026, 02:05
🚨 Something unusual is happening in markets: bonds are flashing caution, yet risk assets keep pushing higher.
The 30-year Treasury yield reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades would normally make traders nervous. But instead of a broad risk-off reaction, markets are showing something different — a possible repricing of fiscal reality.
Amazon’s earnings reaction tells the same story:
❌ Guidance disappoints
✅ Stock jumps 9%
That’s a reminder that positioning, expectations, and sentiment can sometimes overpower the headlines.
For crypto, the signal is interesting.
Historically, a surge in long-term yields while BTC holds above $63K would often be viewed as a warning sign. But this time, the relationship looks less straightforward.
If markets are reacting less to short-term rates and more to long-term concerns around debt and deficits, scarce assets could tell a different story.
The thesis isn’t confirmed yet.
But one thing is clear:
Price action is refusing to follow the old script.
Don’t just watch the news. Watch what capital is actually doing.
Liquidity, positioning, and market behavior often reveal the real story before the headlines do.
Just market observation — not financial advice.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #MarketAnalysis #OKXOrbit
#DailyOrbit
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#SpaceXUnlockLooms