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Moon Hunter
Core Risk Warnings
1. The FOMC is currently the biggest source of uncertainty: the probability of a rate hike is nearly 40% vs. the mainstream expectation of no change, with significant divergence in direction. Any "surprise" in either direction could trigger severe volatility.
2. $63,000 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and also the lifeline for bulls: holding above it indicates a strong correction, while breaking below opens a downside range to 62,300-61,200.
3. Bull crowding + retail investors taking over is the biggest structural risk: Binance retail inflows are about twice that of whales, while whales are retreating. Once $63,000 is broken, the crowded bulls will become the "fuel" for the decline.
4. ETF net outflows for three consecutive days: institutions are withdrawing ahead of the policy meeting, with a cumulative outflow of $477 million. If outflows continue after the FOMC, the rebound potential will be severely limited.
5. The CLARITY Act is shelved: the window before the August recess has significantly narrowed, and expectations for policy benefits are fading.
6. This rebound is characterized as a technical repair, not a trend reversal: BTC is still nearly $10,000 below the 200-day SMA $BTC $ETH $AEON #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
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