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Written by 1912212.eth, Foresight News On May 30, the last day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference, the market once again fulfilled the curse of a crash. Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000 this morning, dipping as low as $104,600. Ethereum also fell from a high of $2,788 all the way to a low of $2,557. The copycat market has generally ushered in a pullback, with some copycats such as BERA even hitting record lows. In terms of the contract market, according to Coinglass data, in the past 1 hour, the entire network liquidated $330 million, of which $321 million was liquidated by long orders and $7.89 million by short orders. In the macro market, COIN and MSTR in U.S. crypto stocks both fell after hours. On the Fed's interest rate cuts, which has been repeatedly vacillating, Fed's Daly said on Thursday that while policymakers are still likely to cut rates twice this year, interest rates should remain stable for now to ensure that inflation can meet the Fed's 2% target. Daly stressed that as long as inflation is above target and there is uncertainty, inflation will be in focus because of solid labor market conditions. In addition, the U.S. Trade Court's ruling to block Trump's tariff measures on Wednesday was overturned by an appeals court on Thursday, highlighting the uncertainty over trade policy that many businesses and the Federal Reserve are uneasy about. Is this retracement a healthy short-term pullback, or is it about to enter a long-term consolidation shock again? Let's listen to the market views of big names and analysts. Placeholder Partner: A small market correction does not mean that the market is over, and the risk structure is still good Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, posted on social media, "Don't mistake a small pullback for the end of the market, the overall risk/reward structure remains good." Matrixport: Futures data shows that traders may close positions to take profits According to a new report from Matrixport (analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research), futures open interest has climbed sharply since the April low. While Solana took a back seat as the meme coin and Pump.fun craze cooled, open interest in Bitcoin saw a significant increase. The surge may reflect a shift in market risk appetite, especially in the wake of Trump's recent reversal of tariffs. Bitcoin continues to play the dual role of "risk appetite" and "risk aversion", and is increasingly in line with the narrative of "digital gold". However, open interest seems to be leveling off for now, which may confirm our view that traders are starting to take profits and plan to re-enter at lower levels. Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Enters a Healthy Consolidation Phase, with Short-Term Holders Taking Profits or Triggering Selling Pressure Bitfinex Alpha reported on May 26 that Bitcoin experienced a 32% pullback after hitting an all-time high in January, but has since rebounded strongly by more than 50% to a new high of $111,880 and has now entered a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, surging participation in the spot market, and positive "net realized capital" growth have driven structural buying in the market, rather than excessive speculation. Despite the pullback in macro risk appetite, such as rumors that the US may impose a 50% tariff on European imports, bitcoin has remained resilient – without significant declines in the process of deleveraging and profit-taking. This resilience is raising concerns about Bitcoin's evolution into a "macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset" whose trading behavior is now more tied to global liquidity than to retail sentiment. Notably, Japan's Metaplanet increased its holdings of Bitcoin worth $104 million, and the US state of Michigan's proposal to introduce legislation in favor of crypto assets, further validates the growing institutional and policy support for digital assets. Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can continue to consolidate above its short-term holding cost base of around $95,000 will be key. Over the past month, short-term holders have realized more than $11.4 billion in profits, so there may be some selling pressure in the near term, but structural demand remains. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and premium signals in the cash market all suggest that the market is maturing and that further gains could follow, once the macro environment is clear. For now, the next few weeks will determine whether Bitcoin's breakout is a phased top or a prelude to a stronger rally in Q3. Arthur Hayes: The Ethereum price is on track to double to $5,000 this year BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that the Ethereum price is on track to reach $4,000-$5,000 this year. Hayes believes that Ethereum is currently the "least popular Layer 1 public chain", but it could instead be an investment opportunity during a period of market cycle transition. CryptoQuant analysts: BTC short-term holders have realized profits to local highs, but have not yet reached the peak levels of previous bull markets CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on social media that STH SOPR (30-day moving average), a measure of the average realized profit and loss of short-term investors when spending tokens on-chain, recently hit local highs, indicating that short-term holders have realized profits that have risen significantly. Despite this, the demand for the token remains strong and does not affect the current upward trend. The indicator has not yet reached the frenzied levels seen at the previous important price highs.

Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News On May 30, the last day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference, the market once again fulfilled the curse of a crash. Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000 this morning, dipping as low as $104,600. Ethereum also fell from a high of $2,788 all the way to a low of $2,557. The copycat market has generally ushered in a pullback, with some copycats such as BERA even hitting record lows. In terms of the contract market, according to Coinglass data, in the past 1 hour, the entire network liquidated $330 million, of which $321 million was liquidated by long orders and $7.89 million by short orders. In the macro market, COIN and MSTR in U.S. crypto stocks both fell after hours. On the Fed's interest rate cuts, which has been repeatedly vacillating, Fed's Daly said on Thursday that while policymakers are still likely to cut rates twice this year, interest rates should remain stable for now to ensure that inflation can meet the Fed's 2% target. Daly stressed that as long as inflation is above target and there is uncertainty, inflation will be in focus because of solid labor market conditions. In addition, the U.S. Trade Court's ruling to block Trump's tariff measures on Wednesday was overturned by an appeals court on Thursday, highlighting the uncertainty over trade policy that many businesses and the Federal Reserve are uneasy about. Is this retracement a healthy short-term pullback, or is it about to enter a long-term consolidation shock again? Let's listen to the market views of big names and analysts. Placeholder Partner: A small market correction does not mean that the market is over, and the risk structure is still good Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, posted on social media, "Don't mistake a small pullback for the end of the market, the overall risk/reward structure remains good." Matrixport: Futures data shows that traders may close positions to take profits According to a new report from Matrixport (analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research), futures open interest has climbed sharply since the April low. While Solana took a back seat as the meme coin and Pump.fun craze cooled, open interest in Bitcoin saw a significant increase. The surge may reflect a shift in market risk appetite, especially in the wake of Trump's recent reversal of tariffs. Bitcoin continues to play the dual role of "risk appetite" and "risk aversion", and is increasingly in line with the narrative of "digital gold". However, open interest seems to be leveling off for now, which may confirm our view that traders are starting to take profits and plan to re-enter at lower levels. Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Enters a Healthy Consolidation Phase, with Short-Term Holders Taking Profits or Triggering Selling Pressure Bitfinex Alpha reported on May 26 that Bitcoin experienced a 32% pullback after hitting an all-time high in January, but has since rebounded strongly by more than 50% to hit a new high of $111, 880 and has now entered a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, surging participation in the spot market, and positive "net realized capital" growth have driven structural buying in the market, rather than excessive speculation. Despite the pullback in macro risk appetite, such as rumors that the US may impose a 50% tariff on European imports, bitcoin has remained resilient – without significant declines in the process of deleveraging and profit-taking. This resilience is raising concerns about Bitcoin's evolution into a "macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset" whose trading behavior is now more tied to global liquidity than to retail sentiment. Notably, Japan's Metaplanet increased its holdings of Bitcoin worth $104 million, and the US state of Michigan's proposal to introduce legislation in favor of crypto assets, further validates the growing institutional and policy support for digital assets. Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can continue to consolidate above its short-term holding cost base (around $95, 000) will be key. Over the past month, short-term holders have realized more than $11.4 billion in profits, so there may be some selling pressure in the near term, but structural demand remains. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and premium signals in the cash market all suggest that the market is maturing and that further gains could follow, once the macro environment is clear. For now, the next few weeks will determine whether Bitcoin's breakout is a phased top or a prelude to a stronger rally in Q3. Arthur Hayes: The Ethereum price is on track to double to $5,000 this year BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that the Ethereum price is on track to reach $4,000-$5,000 this year. Hayes believes that Ethereum is currently the "least popular Layer 1 public chain", but it could instead be an investment opportunity during a period of market cycle transition. CryptoQuant analysts: BTC short-term holders have realized profits to local highs, but have not yet reached the peak levels of previous bull markets CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on social media that STH SOPR (30-day moving average), a measure of the average realized profit and loss of short-term investors when spending tokens on-chain, recently hit local highs, indicating that short-term holders have realized profits that have risen significantly. Despite this, the demand for the token remains strong and does not affect the current upward trend. The indicator has not yet reached the frenzied levels seen at the previous important price highs.

May 19, 2025, the last 30 seconds before the New York Stock Exchange opens. The trading terminal of the S&P 500 index fund flashed red instructions - hundreds of millions of dollars poured into Coinbase's (COIN) stock pool. Fund managers are blankly tapping on the keyboard, they don't care about the philosophical ideals of Bitcoin, they don't understand the technological revolution of blockchain, and they never even have a wallet address. But they know one thing: index rules dictate that they must hold Coinbase, which is now the new upstart to the S&P 500. Wall Street's capital machine has quietly put the reins around the neck of crypto freedom. 1. The Road to Recruitment: From Regulatory Purgatory to Financial Temple Coinbase's compliance counterattack can be called an epic of blood and tears. Three years ago, the company was struggling to survive the storm of SEC lawsuits. In June 2023, the SEC filed a lawsuit against him on 13 counts of violating federal securities laws, accusing him of trading "unregistered securities", and CEO Brian Armstrong angrily denounced on social media: "We will accompany the lawsuit!" ” The dramatic turn is in 2025. In February, the SEC abruptly withdrew the lawsuit, and the Trump administration appointed a friendly lawyer in the currency circle to take charge of the SEC, and the regulatory wind reversed 180 degrees. Three months later, Coinbase acquired derivatives giant Deribit for a whopping $2.9 billion, controlling 70% of the world's Bitcoin options open interest. When the doors of the S&P 500 opened on May 19, Coinbase had gone from being a regulatory outcast to a financial elite. 2. Capital Dark War: The Reconstruction Equation of Passive Funds According to Oppenheimer's analysts, more than $15 trillion in index funds were forced to build positions, and the demand for short-term passive buying alone was as high as $9 billion. Deeper effects are surging in the undercurrent: 269 million U.S. pension holders "unconsciously hold coins" through 401K accounts, and 5 million teachers become indirect participants in the crypto economy; Logical reconstruction of stock price fluctuations: passive allocation forms a cushion, and some hedges the violent fluctuations of the crypto market; Wall Street pricing power expansion: Coinbase controls the Bitcoin options market after the acquisition of Deribit, and capital penetrates into the core of crypto asset pricing; This forced bundling is changing market behavior. Robinhood data shows that COIN searches have skyrocketed by 300%, but only 12% of users understand the essence of their business. When ordinary people's pension accounts are tied to the COIN share price, the free volatility of the crypto market is being domesticated by the steady-state demand of Wall Street. 3. Liberal Twilight: The Institutionalized Survival of the Crypto Spirit The crypto community had cheered Coinbase's inclusion in the S&P 500, but the keen-eyed have sniffed the crisis. When Michael Saylor hailed this as a "major milestone for Bitcoin" on X, he omitted the second half of the subtext: the financialized nature of Bitcoin is the co-optation of traditional capital.   Coinbase is included in the S&P 500's post-long and short game landscape Multi-party logical chains Regulatory amnesty → index inclusion → institutional overweight→ liquidity premium → industry ETFs accelerated Empty warning line The cost of compliance→ innovation inhibits → user churn→ valuations are decoupled from the crypto market→ Wall Street manipulation intensifies The real threat is at the level of values. When the crypto spirit of "not doing evil" came under pressure from quarterly earnings reports, Coinbase began to delist anonymous coins and restrict access to DeFi. The essence of the acquisition of Deribit is to take over the derivatives market with centralized exchange logic, which is contrary to the peer-to-peer electronic cash system envisioned by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Trading platform eToro (ETOR) has expanded its crypto offerings in the U.S., adding 12 new digital assets including Dogecoin DOGE, Cardano ADA and XRP XRP, the company said Wednesday. The additions bring the total number of cryptocurrencies available to U.S. users to 15. The new tokens also include Aave AAVE, Chainlink LINK, Compound COMP, Ethereum Classic ETC, Litecoin LTC, Uniswap UNI, Stellar XLM, Shiba Inu SHIB, and Yearn Finance YFI. Previously, U.S.-based users could only trade Bitcoin BTC, Bitcoin Cash BCH and Ethereum ETH on the platform. The move is part of eToro’s push to widen its footprint in the U.S. market and to meet retail demand and match offerings from larger players like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD). The announcement comes just weeks after eToro made its public debut on Nasdaq, marking the first U.S. crypto firm to go public after months of trade tensions and shaky markets. Stablecoin issuer Circle, who has long had plans to go public, filed for its initial public offering on Tuesday. Despite the turbulent macro backdrop, eToro’s IPO was well-received. The company raised around $310 million, surpassing expectations and signaling investor interest in the combined stock and crypto trading platform model. Shares are modestly lower on Wednesday at $64.15, but remain nicely above the IPO price of $52. Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

RSOV is an interesting approach to tracking capital flows, which gives you a view into where money is going, why it's moving, and how that impacts asset prices But I can't say I'm in love with the methodology or see how it squares with valuation. I assume some of my reasoning is incorrect, there's not a lot out there, but happy to hear more On methodology: RSOV = staking flows + defi flows, which ignores holding the asset as a store of value. Staking and using defi both change the risk profile of the asset, so why should they be counted while the risk-free way of holding the asset is omitted? As I understand it, the intent is to track the money-like properties of the asset, but payments require the unstaked asset. I also don’t think it makes a lot of sense to use the price at the point in time of the flow. As i understand it, the framework tracks the value of deposits and withdrawals based on the price at the time of the action. This creates a mismatch that is tough to reconcile. - If I staked my assets when the price was $1000 and then unstake after the price rose to $4000, then this will be treated as a net negative $3000 flow in RSOV framework, which I don’t really follow the logic on. This implies the calculation could go negative, and it's unclear what a negative RSOV means. - It's hard to follow the other way around, if you stake at $4000 and unstake at $1000, then rsov accumulated net positive value… meaning what? The price went down so I unstaked and sold, why should RSOV hold residual value? On RSOV as a valuation framework: Flows are useful to understand price action, market conditions, and sentiment, but they do not create or destroy intrinsic value. It's not clear to me what the gap between RSOV and market cap actually means, or why it's an indication the asset is undervalued. I struggle to see how measuring deposits into defi solves for valuation, without answering for the circularity. ETH is valuable, so it is useful in DeFi - not the other way around. Tokenized COIN being integrated with aave doesn’t make it more valuable. Also I don’t think REV being denominated in native assets really means much. If I could buy a MacBook in AAPL, it doesn’t mean that apple stock should be valued as money.