Continuing to expand along this logic, whether we usually pay attention to macro news or the K-line on the disk, we essentially want to capture the sentiment of the market and the capital flow represented by the emotion, after all, the flow of funds is the real key to determining the rise and fall. And money will also flow in the direction that is most likely to produce results, so the narrative is so important. Generally speaking, the market will be divided into these stages from cold to hot.
Phase 1 (Chaos Phase)
There is no definite main line of funds, and even pure memes and non-narrative copycats (DOGE, PEPE, etc.) can also eat a wave of rebound.
The reason is "buy first and then talk", no matter what track you are, bet on a mood first.
Stage 2 (narrative convergence period)
Funds began to concentrate in directions with clear narratives, such as this round of ETF concepts (BTC, ETH spot ETFs).
Ecologically valuable altits (UNI, Pengu) have natural liquidity and user bases because they are attached to main chains such as ETH and SOL, with high activity, high volatility, and fast rebound.
At the same time, the premium of "affiliated copycats" comes from the rise of the chain itself + the return of ecological funds, which is a dual power.
Stage 3 (track fermentation period)
Once ETH is confirmed to be the leading role, various branches of the ETH ecosystem (DEFI, L2, meme) will rotate.
UNI (DEX leader), ARB/OP (L2), and ETH-based memes (such as the old SHIB and new high-activity memes) will all benefit.
The SOL ecosystem will be marginalized, unless there is an independent narrative breakthrough, otherwise it may indeed enter a period of downturn (it has happened historically, for example, the presence of the BNB system in the ETH bull market has declined significantly).
ETF bull market characteristics
The chain with ETF is the top of the pyramid (BTC, ETH), which eats the most stable large capital inflow first.
Next, funds may flow along the ETF main chain (ETH ETF → DEFI/L2/meme), not evenly distributed, but prioritize benchmark assets (such as UNI, ARB, popular memes).
So if ETH is confirmed to be the core narrative for the next 1-2 years, the layout route can be:
ETH → DEFI Leader (UNI) → L2 (ARB, OP) → High Active Meme (WIF, SHIB)
The odds of pure altcoins (DOGE, PEPE) will drop quickly after the second stage, unless there is a major independent event itself.
PS: The above currency attributes are only used as examples, which does not mean that this is not necessarily the case
Recently, I focused on the five copycats of XRP DOGE PEPE UNI WIF and found that there must be a narrative. Because UNI WIF is a subsidiary altof of ETH SOL, its activity, volatility, rebound speed, etc. are much better, and the rest of pure altits such as XRP DOGE PEPE are not enough stamina. Looking at historical patterns, pure altcoins such as XRP, DOGE, and PEPE tend to be widely bet on when uncertainty is high in the early stages of the market, leading to short-term rebounds, but once hot tracks are clear (such as DeFi, Layer2, or ETF-related), funds will be transferred quickly.
Therefore, if ETH plays the leading role in the follow-up, then focus on the layout of Ethereum copycats, and even memes will return to the Ethereum chain, so that SOL may decline for a while, but it may also be that there will be new funds after the opening of the full bull market, and the public chains will directly compete to start competition. I also went to see L2 like ARB OP today, and Ethereum may be bounced, but the bullish range is currently limited, and if the ETH bull market deepens, they may be driven.
At present, the main narrative of the currency circle is ETF bulls, who has ETFs and who is bulls.
PPS: If the coins you hold haven't increased in value, there's no need to panic. When a big market comes, they will all rise; it's just a matter of how much and when. In a bull market, losing money can happen quickly mainly due to high volatility, which easily leads people to FOMO, chasing prices and panic selling, resulting in repeated losses of principal.
75K
27
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.